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Twice Over - Derby Winner??

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Over the last day or two my attention has switched to the Derby, and more so the potential runners in the Derby.
Having given it quite a lot of thought I am struggling to come up with a credible contender to put it up to Twice Over.

Lets look at the opposition...

Curtain Call hasnt beaten much to justify his current price, what did he achieve in winning his 3 runner trial race?

HenryTheNavigator is a class animal, but is he a Derby horse? I dont personally think so.

Centennial hasnt showed anything that would worry me if I was the owner of Twice Over.

Of the others in the market including Washington Irving, Tartan Bearer, Alesandro Volta etc have to improve to come into the reckoning.

I think the market also is wrong on a few horses, I would personally have Kandahar Run shorter than any of those last named yet he is at least 2 points bigger than all of them. This is an error IMO!!

At a bigger price I would pick out Moiqen at around the 40/1 mark, he beat Hebridean comfortably last time out and Hebridean has since came out and hacked up on his next start. Moiqens price looks too big to me...

But for the winner I return to my original point, what can beat Twice Over?

Have I missed anyone out who could be a fly in the ointment?

I personally cant see what should beat him and at around the 4/1 mark I think he is a great price for a punt before his run in the Dante next week!!

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posted May 9, 2008

Unwrittain Rule

I thought Washington ran well that day, 1st time out. We all know how his improve for the run, and he confirms he's come on well since.

I think he'll win on Sunday

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comment by arnold1 (U6744008)

posted May 9, 2008

won
it should have cruised that race

backed that

as i recall the jockey lost the iron or something or it broke down towards the end

never raced again did it?

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posted May 9, 2008

Which horse are you on about arnold, I'm confused??

My point in asking was, if I'm not mistaken (which I might be!?) hasnt Unwritten Rule since been beaten easily by Hebridean last sunday?

And Hebridean was beaten comfortably by Moiqen, Therefore (assuming I'm remembering all these lines of form correctly!???) then Moiqen has strong claims yet is nearly three times the price of Washington Irving.

As I say though, this is all off of the top of my head so if I am wrong I stand corrected!!

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posted May 9, 2008

Just backed LOOK BUSY at
48s in runningale

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posted May 9, 2008

farmer, you might just change your tune about Curtain Call afer tommorrow at Lingfield. And that 7/1 for the biggy at Epsom may look pretty generous in 24 hrs time.

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posted May 9, 2008

I think Moiqen does look overpriced considering what he's done, and if he wins on Sunday, i'm sure will be a lot shorter. Backed him at 50-1 today before the price might collapse.

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posted May 9, 2008

Farmer..if you take the form literally then Curtain Call has the edge on Twice Over...as Curtain Call split New Approach and HenrytheNavigator last season,finishing 3 lengths behind the winner,who was 4 lengths plus in front of Ravens Pass last week...so using those formlines as a guide..Twice Overs' short head win over Ravens Pass gives him a length or two to find !!

Also,as I've posted before,Cumani is due his ten year anniversary Derby winner,and is plotting the same path towards it !!

Never fear about New Approach though...he WILL be back for compensation and more !!!

smiley

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posted May 9, 2008

Those at Coolmore think Washington Irving is a very decent horse (apparently Magnier had Ł1m on him last time out when he was beaten by a short head!) Don't put it past Aidan to "slip another one under the radar"!! And as for Rio de la Plata: the Godolphin horses are flopping all over the place!

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posted May 9, 2008

One million what.....Japanese Yen or Italian Lire (which has been extinct for several years now) !!!

smiley

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posted May 10, 2008

Don't forget that Cecil has his doubts about Twice Over staying 1m 4f and I think there is still a very real chance that he could end up at Chantilly over a more appropriate trip.

Cecil ducked the Guineas so I've no doubts he will duck Epsom if he doesn't feel it's the right race.

I don't have a particularly strong opinion on the Derby at this stage but would just favour Curtain Call at this stage if forced to have a bet.

A shame he is not running at Lingfield this afternoon as it would have been very informative.

However, the fact Cumani is treating this horse with kid gloves just shows (IMO) how highly he rates this horse and does not want to risk getting him jarred up before Epsom.

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