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Who's going to win the Giro

Road cycling
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The dust hasn't even settled in Romandie yet, however I think it's time to open up that can of worms.

Last week I would have said Menchov, Di Luca or Simoni, with possibly Ricco, Pelizotti or Soler. The inclusion of Astana seems to have thrown it all into disarray. One look at Betfair (One of the only websites to have logical odds) seems to favour heavily the Astana trio. Menchov and Di Luca are at 4/1 while Kloden has stormed in at 2/1, Contador at 5/2 and even Leipheimer at 5/1.

This isn't even including the dark horses which have performed admirably this week in Switzerland. Juan Manuel Garate could pose a threat (7th overall in Romandie), or even Marco Pinotti (3rd!) who definitely has my support to do well and probably the support of many neutrals after last year's exploits. Although there's plenty of time trials, there's also plenty of climbs this year, I'm hoping Jose Rujano can find some form, like in 2005, to stir things up a bit.

Who's going to win? I actually don't know anymore, which makes it all the better a prospect. With the inclusion of Astana as well, the Italians will have to work much harder to get a home win again this year.

I'll say Simoni though.

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posted May 5, 2008

Cunego hasn't been mentioned yet. He has definately got to be in with a chance. However it is likely Astana will make the most of their Giro inlcusion and I think Kloden could be thier man for victory, with Contador going all out for a win in the Vuelta later this year.

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comment by omgidbi (U8078647)

posted May 5, 2008

i think cunego hasn't been mentioned yet simply because it is expected he will go for the Tour if he feels his preparation is on track. Else, yes he will be prominent.

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posted May 5, 2008

Sites are finally starting to put up the start lists for the Giro. Cunego isn't among them. It's certainly a shame, but then he should be considered one of the favourites for the Tour this year, so not surprising.

Astana should throw their weight behind Kloden, he's clearly in form and the course does suit him with the time trials. It will be interesting to see what Contador does. I don't think he'll be able to cut it overall, he'll have to put the effort in though to help Kloden to get ASO to see their case. I really hope Astana don't go for a three-pronged approach, since Kloden never seems to come out of those too well.

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comment by spxxky (U2159994)

posted May 7, 2008

It's Lance Armstrong for me!

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posted May 7, 2008

It's a shame he never accepted Simoni's challenge.

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posted May 9, 2008

Astana - but team orders. WHo ever is going best at a certain point may get the go ahead. Contrador has won everything so far this year, and Levi didn't look that good last week.

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posted May 9, 2008

Great comment Fanboy, it would have been a joy to watch both at their peak fighting for the maglia rosa. I don't know if Armstrong would have been able to adapt to the different mountains and race style. He always wanted to control the race and beat everyone by sprinting up the last climb. The long attacks by Simoni might not have suited him, I remember him suffering at the Joux Plane once on the back of a Pantani monsterattack.

It's a pity we'll never know the outcome of such contest. We could see the same kind of race this year, but I'm afraid Astana will control things as a team.

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comment by severo (U3166548)

posted May 10, 2008

I think it's very open. Ricco I doubt can last 3 weeks without having a bad day (but then we used to say that about Di Luca); Di Luca won last year with a great team; Menchov has eyes on the Tour; Kloeden can't lead a team in a big race, but is the best prepared of the Astana bunch; Simoni is getting on (but will he be extra motivated as it's his last Giro?); Caisse's leader Arroyo couldn't start. No one is without doubt. I'm going for an outsider: Vincenzo Nibali. He won't get another chance for a few years as Basso will be the main man at Leakygas next year so I'm hoping he can do something in this Giro.

Well I'd like it. I like it there's no one outstanding though smiley

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posted May 11, 2008

Yes it's an open race, with a course that doesn't hand a clear advantage to one kind of rider or another.

But my thinking is, how can Astana NOT take control of it?

I'd expect them to favour Contador, since the Giro could be the biggest event of their season. Kloden and Leipheimer are awesome plan B, and it'd be great to see them win a race of this stature at least once in their careers.

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posted May 14, 2008

Contador. ¡Vamos!

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