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Who will win the Boat Race?by Martin Gough - BBC Sport (U2505894) 28 March 2008   Over the last few days I’ve been watching both Oxford and Cambridge on their training sessions on the River Thames, I’ve been speaking to oarsmen, coxes and coaches from both crews and discussing some of the issues around the 154th Boat Race with you all on 606. Oxford are clearly powerful, it is just a question of how much of that power goes into the water in the right place Based on results from various events earlier in the year, Oxford’s extra experience and the weight advantage, I was going dark blue all the way at the start of the week.After Wednesday’s news that Cambridge would have to substitute their stroke man at the last minute, I wasn’t the only one diving onto betting websites in the hope of still getting a good price. I backed Oxford by a margin of three to five lengths but, now that I’ve got to put my mouth where my money is, I’m not so sure. As they aim to reserve their energy, neither crew has this week done much more that three or four minutes at race pace, while the race itself is likely to last around 17 minutes, but Cambridge look more together, even with new boy Ryan Monaghan in the stern. As an example, practising their starts on Thursday morning, Oxford sputtered and splashed while rating around 46 strokes per minute. Cambridge were far cleaner at around 49. Oxford will scoff. In the modern era this has always been a match between Oxford brawn and Cambridge style. Oxford are clearly powerful, it is just a question of how much of that power goes into the water in the right place. Oxford coach Sean Bowden said his biggest challenge over the last few weeks has been: “getting a bunch of strong guys really cohesive in the water, getting them to understand how to use their strength to the best effect and preparing mentally”. We have a playbook - tactics, situations, scenarios: What if the water at St Paul’s is bad? He is still working on it, with several individuals looking unable to change the styles that have served them well in the past for the common good. Cambridge's Duncan Holland When they are paddling, Oxford lurch regularly to one side on their way up the slide. If the water is rough, such an obvious flaw could be magnified massively. Cambridge, meanwhile, seem to have done away with their traditional lean-back at the finish of the stroke, instead chopping the blade out more cleanly. Coach Duncan Holland clearly still has nightmares about the 2006 race, when his debut was ruined by his crew’s inability to respond to an Oxford push in rough water. That year, the Cambridge boat did not have pumps to get rid of the water that came crashing over the side. This year they have three, controlled from a switch next to Rebecca Dowbiggin’s cox seat. Holland has seen the weather forecast of a 22mph south-westerly wind, which will hit the crews head on around Chiswick Eyot – around nine minutes in. “We have a playbook – tactics, situations, scenarios,” he explained. “What if the water at St Paul’s [just before Chiswick] is bad? What if it’s blowing a norwester and the course is unrowable at a certain point?” He admits Monaghan still faces a steep learning curve but has regularly described the substitution as a “routine matter in sport” and Cambridge are clearly intent on doing the best they can with the hand they’ve been dealt. I’ve put my money down, I’ve seen the statistics. If pushed I will still go for an Oxford win. I just don’t feel as confident as I thought I would be at this point. Previous Boat Race articles by Martin Gough: Thursday: Cambridge need stroke of inspiration Wednesday: Coxes' test of character Tuesday: Why I love the Boat Race December trials: Oxford’s old stager, Cambridge savour early test In photos: Boat Race snaps on Flickr Latest 10 commentsRead members' comments or add your own
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Londonsportsmadgirl (U11336249) posted Mar 28, 2008 I’m backing Cambridge even with their last minute switch. There’s no doubting both crews have the will to win but Cambridge has the better technique and with the conditions predicted for Saturday I think that’s going to clinch it for them. They learnt their lesson the year before last and won’t let Oxford take the advantage in rough water again.
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acrasial (U11347492) posted Mar 28, 2008 Out of interest, who looks better in the reserve crews? I assume the spare pair race didn't go ahead yesterday, seeing as Cambridge must only have one guy spare now.
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woodmeister (U582866) posted Mar 28, 2008 I think that the combination of cambridge losing their stroke at the last minute and a more powerful oxford crew could see us (oxford) through. If the conditions are gonna be as bad as two years ago then it's gonna be an interesting race either way. bring it on!!
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Martin Gough - BBC Sport (U2505894) posted Mar 29, 2008 acrasial, Oxford haven't used a spare pair this year, although a few reserves have been out in singles all week.
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Martin Gough - BBC Sport (U2505894) posted Mar 29, 2008 I've just seen that one bookmaker is offering odds of 16/1 that one of the boats will sink and of 125/1 that both will. Those have shortened from 33/1 and 300/1 respectively in the last 48 hours. Don't have any of it.
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singinghannahj (U6843268) posted Mar 29, 2008 I do find it very annoying that a lot of people on these forums dismiss out of hand sports they don't follow as sports for "toffs". Do people like hendero not think that all those people watch things like the boat race not because they're sheep, but for entertainment. Some people are incredibly blinkered when it comes to sport - if it doesn't fit their narrow criteria, then it isn't worthy of coverage. I have just read an idiotic comment on the cycling board about track cycling should have its funding and resources withdrawn in favour of road cycling simply it seems because the poster prefers road cycling. Please can people open their minds and realise that, while everyone has their preferred sport it doesn't render everything else not worthy. While I'm at it, some people really ought to get rid of the chip they have on their shoulder about so-called elitist sport. If I never watched a sport simply because I wasn't presented with an immediate opportunity to particpate in it, I'd never watch any sport (apart from netball, hockey and badminton). All endeavour and success should be celebrated, surely?
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singinghannahj (U6843268) posted Mar 29, 2008 Sorry - with reference to hendero's comment I meant lemmings, not sheep.
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rseman (U2178250) posted Mar 29, 2008 I'm also annoyed with the suggestion that everyone involved in rowing happens to be a toff. I have been a member of Trent Rowing Cluyb in Burton since 2002. I have not been to private school and not from a well off background.
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4thecaptain (U9383617) posted Mar 29, 2008 I think so many people watch the boat race because they hope something exciting may happen.
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Martin Gough - BBC Sport (U2505894) posted Mar 29, 2008 I think there may be fewer than the usual 250,000 along the banks today. There's a thunderstorm in Mortlake at the moment. Comment on this article |
