It all seemed to be going to plan last weekend as the leading seeds, New England and Green Bay progressed through to the conference championship games – the Super Bowl semi-finals.

Then everything was turned upside-down on Sunday as San Diego and the New York Giants sprang upsets, the Chargers over Indianapolis and the Giants against Dallas.

Can they do it again? I reckon San Diego stand a small chance and the Giants a better one, but neither will spend the next fortnight preparing for Super Bowl XLII.

American Football Conference: San Diego at New England, Sunday 2000 GMT, Sky Sports 2

San Diego were last year’s play-off top seed but crashed out to the Patriots 24-21 in the divisional round by allowing the visitors to score 10 points in the final five minutes. This year it’s the Pats who hold all the cards (and they are favoured by around 15 points).

With victory here New England would become the first ever team to go 18-0 in a season, one better than the 1972 Miami Dolphins, who played a shorter regular season.

They scored a league record 589 points while quarterback Tom Brady and receiver Randy Moss set new marks with 50 touchdown passes and 23 TD receptions respectively.

Meanwhile, the Chargers began the season under new coach Norv Turner in disarray before putting together an eight-match winning run.

With Shawne Merriman and Luis Castillo to the fore, the Chargers will bring more pressure than Brady has seen for most of the year, which could make things fun.

Brady will eventually find one of his let-out valves – Wes Welker running underneath, tight end Ben Watson or back Laurence Maroney on the screen – but it may take him a little time to click.

Were the Chargers in better shape offensively, they would be able to exploit that but injuries will limit the league’s leading rusher, LaDainian Tomlinson, QB Philip Rivers and tight end Antonio Gates.

Even if receivers Vince Jackson and Chris Chambers – whose mid-season trade from Miami was key to the upturn in fortunes – step up as they did last weekend in Indy, the Bolts will struggle to impose themselves on Rodney Harrison et al.

Prediction: Chargers 24-31 Patriots

National Football Conference: New York Giants at Green Bay, Sunday 2330 GMT, Sky Sports 2

Which genius planned an evening game for Green Bay with temperatures expected to be around minus 15C at kick-off? Last week’s blizzard, which saw the Packers emerge from a white-out to beat Seattle may have looked pretty from home but it won’t be much fun at Lambeau Field.


This is the sixth time two of the NFL’s oldest members have met in the championship game, although it is the first since the NFL and AFL merged, and created the Super Bowl in 1966.

Although the offences these two sides run normally bear no resemblance to those that battled it out at the Polo Grounds in 1938 or Wisconsin State Fair Park the following year, ground games should feature heavily as TV commentators compete to be the first to use the phrase “frozen tundra”.

Giants back Brandon Jacobs is an old-fashioned bruiser, although he has surprising pace to the outside.

His Packer counterpart Ryan Grant – traded by the Giants in exchange for a sixth-round draft pick last summer but a revelation since midseason – is faster and flashier, although his two early fumbles against Seattle almost stopped his side getting this far.

Passing is likely to be short, with greybeard Green Bay QB Brett Favre aiming to set a new mark for the longest time between Super Bowl starts – it would be 10 years since he last played in the big game – and Eli Manning aiming to continue the improved consistency he has shown in the second half of the season.

This one will be tight, with New York’s defensive front causing problems for Favre, but Green Bay’s home-field advantage should take its toll, just.

Prediction: Giants 14-17 Packers

Season predictions so far 15-7