BBC Home

Explore the BBC

New visitors: Create your membership
Returning members: Sign in

8 comments

user rating: 3 star

Week 9 - New England 24-20 Indianapolis

comment on the article
Tom Brady

New England exploded in the final quarter to win what had been billed as the biggest NFL regular-season game ever, in the house of their arch-rivals the Colts.

But I'm going to put my money on the table now. Even though the Patriots could become the first team ever to go through an entire 16-game regular-season unbeaten, even though they feature the best offence I have ever seen, I believe Indianapolis will win if the two sides meet in the AFC Championship game (the Super Bowl semi-final) in January.

Everything was going against New England heading into the final quarter. They were 13-10 down – and should have been further in the hole – their quarterback was struggling against the Indianapolis pass rush, they had failed to establish the run... then they pulled out three huge plays to win.

All this happened in the space of four minutes 44 seconds in the fourth quarter, which started with Indy 20-10 up.

>> Pats QB Tom Brady – who had not thrown a pass longer than 19 yards all day as he was pressured by a marauding Colts front seven - connected with Randy Moss for 55 yards to set up a Wes Welker touchdown.

>> Indy QB Peyton Manning was sacked by Rosevelt Colvin and gave up a fumble on his home turf for the first time in 23 months.

>> Brady hit Donte' Stallworth with a 33-yard bomb to set up Kevin Faulk's slippery catch-and-dash for the winning touchdown.

Normally you can look at the statistics at the end of a game and have a pretty good idea of what happened. Not this one.

In Addai the Colts have a player who could make it happen just as easily in poor weather in New England in January
Running back Joseph Addai became the first Colt ever to rush for more than 100 yards and catch for over 100 in the same game. He ran wild early in the contest as New England sat back, waiting for the pass. His 73-yard catch-and-run on a broken play for a touchdown at the end of the first half looked to have swung the contest incontrovertibly in Indy's favour.

In fact, the Colts should have been 14-0 up early in the contest. Had veteran receiver Marvin Harrison been playing, rather than holding his injured knee on the sidelines, Manning would have had a receiver big enough to make catches in the stifling coverage that comes when the field gets shorter in the red zone. Instead of one Adam Vinatieri field goal from two attempts could easily have been two TDs.

Part of the reason I believe the Colts could win a post-season rematch is down to the change in emphasis on their offence, though. In the past they have been great on the carpet of the RCA Dome but easier to break down in the wind and snow of Foxboro, Massachusetts, in mid-winter.

This game is likely to be the tie-breaker that gives home-field advantage to the Pats but in Addai the Colts have a player who could make it happen just as easily in poor weather, spotting gaps, juking past defenders and maximising the effects of the short pass. He made New England's vaunted linebacking corps look like the ageing band they are.

Meanwhile the Colts defence, even last year one of the league's worst against the run, held Lawrence Maroney (who admittedly, has been struggling with injuries) to 59 yards. Maroney never had an opportunity to make his second move.

How did Brady manage to throw 153 of his 255 yards in the fourth quarter? The Indianapolis defensive line were just plain tired. They showed in in the third quarter, when Brady's quick-passing had them on their heals throughout a six-minute, 75 yard drive. Although it only ended in a field goal it did the damage necessary.

Will New England go 16-0? Don't be silly. No team that wants to win the Super Bowl can afford to put in the extra effort required to go perfect, especially if they wrap up the AFC East and home-filed advantage early with a few weeks remaining. The trip-up could come on 3 December in Baltimore.

Meanwhile, after having to talk about going perfect for much of the last two seasons, the pressure is off the Colts and they can concentrate on securing a second Super Bowl ring.

Prediction: Patriots 27-21 Colts (although my reasoning was completely out) - season so far 6-2.

You can watch highlights of the game (if you're in the UK) on the BBC website.

Some weeks after the Patriots video scandal, a row that has simmered around the Colts for the past few years erupted again, when a Pats official asked the NFL to investigate a strange noise that came up on TV coverage, perhaps giving credence to years-old claims the RCA Dome amplifies crowd noise to give extra advantage to the home side. The league pointed out that the noise was only heard on TV, and not live at the venue, which rather ruined the claims.

Latest comments

Read members' comments or add your own

posted Nov 6, 2007

Considering how big this game was, what will it be like if both get to the AFC Championship game? Absolutely electric. Many say that Harrison's involvement will change the result if they meet again this year and I'm in no doubt that it will. Suprisingly, I believe that Maroney will have a different game if the rematch happens. If New England secure the AFC East and home field advantage, they can rest key players - the sooner the division is wrapped up, the more time Maroney has to try to get at his best.

If the rematch will happen, it'll be about the receivers. Can the Colts control Moss and can the Patriots control Harrison?

add comment | complain about this comment

posted Nov 6, 2007

You're right about resting players. Maroney probably wouldn't have featured as heavily if Sammy Smith had still been fit.

People focus on key receivers too much, though. Remember last year's AFC Champ game, when linemen caught TD passes on both sides? It's about finding the favourable match-up and exploiting.

Right now, the Colts can deal with Moss and Stallworth, but not Welker at the same time. The Pats could deal with Wayne and Clarke because the back-ups weren't much cop but with Harrison and Gonzalez fit there should be far more to think about.

add comment | complain about this comment

posted Nov 6, 2007

Strangely I agree, somehow losing this one seems to give Indy an edge in a rematch. I’m not sure why…it just seems that way. January in Foxboro would give NE the advantage against most teams but Addai and Indy’s Defense (not to mention the huge chip on their shoulder) could even things out. If the weather is really bad, wind, snow, what-not, it becomes a short-pass/running game. That makes Moss less of a threat and Addai more of a factor and slightly tips the scales to Indy. If the weather is fair, Moss is still the deep threat and the Home field helps NE.

You’re right on it Martin about what Welker does for NE. It’s been that third choice that has helped NE kill so many teams this year. For most teams that third-check down is the RB out of the back field or Tight-end. For the Pats it’s Welker running at full speed 8 to 10 yards down the field. Brady then has a fourth/fifth check down to the back/TE. If you cover Moss and Stallworth…who’s on Welker? A safety or Linebacker? Then who covers the tight-end and back? It’s been that third threat element all year that’s made the difference for New England. Oh yeah, and that Brady guy…I think he’s got some potential.

add comment | complain about this comment

posted Nov 7, 2007

its a sign of a great team, that even while not playing well for three quarters, the PATS still hung in there & got the big plays when they needed them. great teams in the past like the 49ers used to do it exactly the same way, I disagree with the author, if they meet again in the playoffs, the PATS will win it more comfortable.

add comment | complain about this comment

posted Nov 7, 2007

Who's Sammy Smith? Do you mean Sammy Morris (Pats RB who went on IR last week)?

If the two sides meet again in Foxborough in January, I expect the Patriots to win more comfortably than they did at the weekend - either by 2 scores or by one having recovered a late Indy on-side kick. I think the New England conditions in January would be the undoing of the Colts passing game and, as we saw on Sunday, Addai can't carry the whole load for 4 quarters - he was shattered by Q4 having out-scored and out-gained the rest of the Colts Offence on his own

add comment | complain about this comment

posted Nov 8, 2007

Where to start? The Patriots defence did a number on the Colts offence, bending but not breaking on several drives in the first half until Addai got lucky with his run, Harrison taking out his own men to create the opening. In the 2nd half they got the pressure on Peyton and never allowed him to dictate the game and limited the Colts to one scoring drive in the 2nd half on their own turf.

The Colts defence got plenty of pressure on Brady but never forced the big game breaking mistake, both interceptions were deep in Indy territory and in the end Brady was picking them apart for fun. Note that Manning coughed up the ball at key moments in contrast to Brady.

Lets not forget thet the Patriots were hosed on big penalties by the officials on several occasions, a trend which is becoming very tiresome every time we play the Colts, but still shook off a fanchise high number of penalties to win at the home of their biggest rivals.

You talk about how Indy dominated the stats, who had the betetr quarterback rating? Brady of course. As for the return game its too early to talk about that as there are 8 games (7 for the Pats) to be played before we get to the playoffs never mind the AFC Championship game and plenty of things can happen between now and then like injuries etc.

If they do meet in Foxboro with fully fit teams the Patriots will win by 20 points because they simply outmatch the Colts in coaching, at quarterback and in overall skill. By Patriots standards they played relatively poorly for 2 1/2 quarters in Indy but in the 4th they showed the explosive offence they are capable of and Indy had no answer to it. Bill will be viewing the game tape very closely and will be waiting for Peyton and the boys come January.

As for going 16-0, if the Colts keep winning the Patriots will be forced to keep on wining to ensure home field advantage and that ensures that the big guns will be deployed right up to and through game 15. If the Colts dont lose again the Patriots will only secure home field advantage in the penultimate game of the season. Do you honestly think that Bill will get to 15-0 and not take a shot at the perfect season safe in the knowledge that they have wild card weekend off? Look for key players to be rested in 4th quarters of games where the Patriots are leading big.

Your little aside about spygate also brings up an interesting point about why the Patriots have been keeping the foot down in games they have already won this season, the simple answer is that Bill is making a point about spygate and that the Patriots are the best team in the league with or without the video tape. Don Shula's comments this week will just provide further motivation to go unbeaten all season. Make no mistake about it Bill & Tom want the perfect season and if the team stay healthy I honestly cant see anyone stopping them.

add comment | complain about this comment

posted Nov 8, 2007

What happened to my post?

add comment | complain about this comment

posted Nov 8, 2007

Oh there it is!

add comment | complain about this comment

Comment on this article

Sorry, you can only contribute to 606 during opening hours. These are 0900-2300 UK time, seven days a week, but may vary to accommodate sporting events and UK public holidays.

RATE THIS ARTICLE

Rate Breakdown

  • 5 50.00%
    1 votes
  • 4
    0 votes
  • 3
    0 votes
  • 2
    0 votes
  • 1 50.00%
    1 votes

average rating:
3.00 from 2 votes