posted Jul 17, 2007

After Stage 9 [8](7):

BBC's Yellow jersey dreamers:

2 [ 4](18) Alejandro Valverde +00:02:35
4 [ 6](13) Cadel Evans +00:02:41
6 [ 7](21) Christophe Moreau +00:03:18
7 [11](27) Carlos Sastre +00:03:39
8 [12]( 6) Andreas Kloden +00:03:50
9 [13](16) Levi Leipheimer +00:03:53
13 [ 9](28) Frank Schleck +00:05:56
15 [14](15) Oscar Pereiro +00:06:36
18 [10](17) Dennis Menchov +00:07:10
21 [22](44) Alexander Vinokourov +00:08:05
23 [23]( 8) Vladimir Karpets +00:08:51
Michael Rogers (DNF Stage 8)

Others:

1 Michael Rasmussen
3 Iban Mayo +00:02:39
5 Alberto Contador +00:03:08

Brits:

75 [104]( 83) Charles Wegelius +00:56:45
99 [ 88]( 53) David Millar +01:10:07
152 [151](147) Bradley Wiggins +01:34:23
160 [160](161) Geraint Thomas +01:37:31
Mark Cavendish (DNF Stage 8)

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posted Jul 17, 2007

Only 3 men can realistically win the tour at this point:

1)Valverde
2)Evans
3)Kloeden

Rasmussen will lose 3 or 4 minutes to those 3 in Stage 13's time trial. Then another 3 or 4 minutes in stage 19's 55km time trial. He'll never make those minutes up in the pyranees.

Mayo, Contador and Sastre all have an outside shot, but must get a lead by the end of the pyranees and hope to ride the time trial of their life...I don't think its realistic.

Other pretenders are:

1)Moreau - Just not quite good enough in any phase but certain for top 10.

2)Leipheimer - ditto Moreau.

3)Vino - Will probably get a stage win in stage 15, but won't be able pull back 6 minutes on Valverde and Evans.

4)Menchov is toast!

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posted Jul 17, 2007

Lowlandbrit, I'm afraid because the T-mobile rider, Patrik Sinkewitz, had his accident after Stage 8 he was classified as an non-starter, rather than a withdrawal. So Stage 9 did have a victim. Now 171.

http://www.t-mobile-team.com/tmo_team/servlet/pages/949550

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posted Jul 17, 2007

What a stage, what a tour!

Things are looking good for Kloden and Evans. Of the main contenders they're the best at the time trial. I expect kloden to get better in the 2nd half of the tour as well. Valverde and Contador need to strike in the Pyrenees. And don't write of Rasmussen, he's got some more chances coming in the Pyrenees.

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posted Jul 17, 2007

Astana probably needs to think about who should be their leader after Saturday...

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posted Jul 18, 2007

Why does no one mention Leipheimer as a potential winner of 'le Tour'? Surely as he has the track record and experience of working with Armstrong. His tactics will become clearer the further he progresses into the mountains. He is only 3.5mins down?

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posted Jul 18, 2007

SMarauder...

There's an interesting article about Rasmussen written by Markus Backstedt on the Eurosport website. Basically he says that no-one has seen Rasmussen TT in the past year and by all accounts that's been the main focus of his training. Personally, I think he might surprise some people.

It's a similar situation to that of Valverde. A few years back he'd be losing 3,4 or 5 minutes in the TTs but he put the work in and now he's right up there.

Either way, Rasmussen looks by far the strongest in the mountains, and he could easily grab some huge time gaps on the massive climbs still to come.

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posted Jul 18, 2007

Because Leipheimer isn't capable of putting time on anyone, he's a top 10 cyclist but no more.

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posted Jul 18, 2007

Yep, Leipheimer will not win it, Contador is Discovery's man to watch.

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posted Jul 18, 2007

the mountain stages showed that Leiphiemer will not get any higher than around 5. Never attacked, always following, and even then was getting dropped.

contador now, it looks like he can TT, so smarauder68 i dont know what you are talking about. he only lost 35 secs to Cancellara in the Prologue, and he blew everyone away. he does not need to make that much in the mountains, will get time back off valverde and rassmussen and will give the others a race.

How you can say Valverde can win, and Rassmussen only an outside chance i dont know. Very similar, very good climbers, but struggle in the TT.

i think it is also quite obvious that Astana have decided on kloden. they would not have let him go up the road if they had not. Bit disappointed for KASHECHKIN though. Looked like he had to do the work for Vino yesterday, where as if he goes and helps kloden that could be a very good partnership.

bring on the next mountains and two mountain top finishes

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