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OAKS Betting

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Have just been checking out the latest odds available for the Classic and must say i'm amazed that Passage of Time has shortened so much. Yes, she probably needed the run but she wasn't exactly impressive and the field looked pretty weak.
Could it be, she simply hasn't trained on? On that performance,I certainly wouldn't fancy her to beat Soldier of Fortune if they were to meet again this year!
At the moment I would far rather back Dalvina or Light Shift EW as they were both easy trial winners who seem to be improving with every run!!

Any thoughts?

Regards

Apieceofcake

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comment by RJP (U7854642)

posted May 17, 2007

Thanks! That is more or less what I was thinking, but doesnt explain why Jackanes post suggests that it was an excellent performance. She was on the bridle then, 3 furlongs out, but when asked to quicken, did only just enough to win. Hardly a performace of a 2/1 oaks fav I would suggest.

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posted May 17, 2007

the fact she was back on the bridle at the end of the race means she had more up her sleeve and was only just doing enough, but had anything tried to go past her she would have found more.

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posted May 17, 2007

Interesting comments. I do see where jackanes is coming from. I would hardly describe it as impressive however, Henry Cecil did say he had left something to work on as obviously she has been trained specifically for the Oaks. The race didn't seem that strong and they wemt a stop.. start gallop but she did travel very well and didn't pick up straightaway but when she did lengthen and the other filly came to her she pilled out more as she seems to want a bot of company.


The faster pace will suit her in the oaks and a really big asset she's got is that she seems to be a beautifully balanced horse which means Epsoms gradients should hold no problems.

So on the evidence of yesterday i think that it was a highly satisfactory performance which should cement her position at the head of the market.

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comment by RJP (U7854642)

posted May 17, 2007

Right I've got it now! Thanks! In that case it was pretty impressive then, cus she was absolutely cruising 3 furlongs out.

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posted May 17, 2007

Ok PoT would have found a lot more speed and acceleration, if Hughes would have been at the back of the pack. He rode her so prominently, he didn't even need to get off the bridle to get in front.

But people keep saying she didn't accelerate. The horse doesn't like being in front. When she gets to the front, she tries to stop. Look when the Spencer-ridden filly came to challenge. She pulled out loads more.

Hughes said afterwards if she makes the running, it's ok with her, she doesn't pull herself up - I'd imagine they'll do this in the Oaks, make the running.

Too much is riding on timing the run perfectly, and will be sceceptible to a much faster finishing run. Plus Hughes will be on-board, and I'm not sure he's the best jockey to trust with getting a good timed run....

I remember Youmzain running in Dubai in March with Hughes on board.........steam

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comment by theBear (U836401)

posted May 17, 2007

I was very impressed by Four Sins in Ireland last night. She won a Group 3 easily, going away from the field, and being by Sinndar she will have no problems getting the trip.
Around 14-1 is very good EW value in my opinion.

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posted May 17, 2007

Well the French Oaks winner is a horse called Valopolina (i think that's the right spelling!).

She absolutely destroyed a Group 3 2 weeks ago, and looks a smart prospect. If she turned up at Epsom, could be very interesting, but I doubt she's entered.

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posted May 17, 2007

jackane 24,

All the horses you mention stayed the trip because they are by stoutly bred mares.Danehill has very little stamina influence!!
Very interesting that Simply perfect's mare,Hotel Genie Dot Com, really struggled to get a mile( I think 7 furlongs was the longest trip she won at! ), Also her relatives were all best at 7-8 furlongs.
I suppose she may buck her breeding and stay further, but 12 furlongs seems very unlikely to me!!

Regards

Apieceofcake

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posted May 17, 2007

this is the best oaks winners you have never seen

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posted May 18, 2007

One thing no-one has mentioned in relation to PoT was the small setback last week (throat abcess) and the fact she was in season on Wednesday.

I think there is stacks of improvement to come and there is no better trainer of fillies in the world.

I'm not saying that PoT will win the Oaks but I thought that was a cracking performance for prep and the extra couple of furlongs will help.

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