posted Apr 17, 2007

Just to say again, regarding the class will always show through, the national has become, since 1990, a very hard race for horses carrying lots of weight.People are right to say horses have carried weight in to the frame, but as many experienced trainers and jockeys have said,'every pound at Aintree over 11st is double'. Garrison Savannnah failed to give Seagram 9lbs in '91,a weight he would done so with ease anywhere else, Miinnehoma, a very classy horse, only carried 10st 8lbs to victory, ditto Rough Quest, 10st 7lbs. That said we don't want to see uncompetitive Nationals with a Gold Cup type waltzing away with the prize, that's not what the race is about, but I believe we will see, hopefully, a further constriction in the weights for next year's National.

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posted Apr 17, 2007

I note what you say crisp73 (what a great National that was) but hope they don't tinker with the handicap too much. A restriction on top weight to 11-10 might be ok, but I think the handicapper has done a pretty good job. It is good that horses such as Mckelvey and Philson run who would be miles off the pace in a conditions chase can get in the frame. We have the gold cup for the Kauto Stars of the steeplechase world.

Incidentally, in all this banter about the result, I feel that on behalf of all National fans I should say a tremendous thank you to Charles Barnett for maintaining and enhancing the spirit and tradition of this great race. Us older folk remember the dark days of Bill Davies in the seventies when the National was nearly lost and Bechers Brook would have become a housing estate. It is now re-established as THE RACE (sorry melbourne, Kentucky, dubai etc) and that is due in no small part to the fantastic work of Mr Barnett and his team.

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posted Apr 17, 2007

Well guys, i had Silver Birch to win(ante post before it was thought the ground was too firm), Mckelvey EW and Philson Run EW. Picked from Studying form and listening to a few people on the forums.
Unfortunatley Mckelvey and Point Barrow were my big wagers so didnt win quite as much as if the course had been 10m longer!

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posted Apr 18, 2007

So much for the TV pundits and tipsters, ok its easy to gloat after the event but all the stats pointed to Silver Birch being one with a huge chance so much so I backed it anti post when the weights came out and again last Saturday as one book maker pushed it out to 40/1 Thank you.
I was at Cheltenham when it chased Heads on the Ground up the hill in a race it had no chance with the weights against the winner, since then Elliot had at least 3 articles published saying how good the horse was. The BBC then preceeded to leave it out of the parade focusing on their more fancied ones.I can only assume most hacks wear blinkers !!!

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posted Apr 18, 2007

I am not disagreeing with the 'Captain, not one bit, the national, as the great Reg Green said, is all about turning small stables and so called 'no hopers' in to kings for a day but the conditions of the race have changed and I think any half- classy sort of horse would struggle to concede huge amounts of weight now. When the fences were bigger the emphasis was on jumping them and the race was, on average, a slower run thing as the jockeys tried to conserve the energy in their mounts for those big black fences.

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posted Apr 18, 2007

I think the modifications to the fences together with warmer climate conditions and improved ground management do mean the race is run quicker. The only way to give the classier horses more chance would be to say make it a limited handicap with a weight band of say 11.10 to 10.7 but i am sure there would be uproar from owners trainers and about that.

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posted Apr 18, 2007

Stats Dude.
Never a good idea to gloat that you picked it and know one else did.I picked McKelvey who was literally on three legs after the elbow and still finished within 3/4 lengths of your choice even though TJ left it too late to change his whip over to the correct hand.I must say in terms of quality it was a poor national with so many fallers Silver Birch beat a pretty modest bunch and the others had excuses.Hedgehunter not fit/Numbersix ground too quick and lots of fallers.
All the stats pointed to Silver Birch yes but you trust the biggest trainer in National Hunt Racing to know a good horse when he sees one.The simple fact is he cast it away as half the horse he used to be and we nearly all got caught out.I can give you 99 other times when this has happened and Nicholls has been right.
Silver Birch was gifted the race by Slim Pickings blunder & Mckelvey's injury.

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posted Apr 18, 2007

Very Good article one point though considering the bookies take so much money on this race and the punters selections are so varied, how come when so few punters backed silver birch the odds were only 33s mean bookies it should been a bit bigger

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posted Apr 19, 2007

I was not gloating ,I just wanted to point out that this was no long shot and in my opinion the evidence was there for all to see. A 2nd at the Cheltenham festival is not bad form in my book. I do not agree with the lack of quality in the race there was at least 14 grade 1 or A winners in this race which is more than I can remember for a long time. I agree the runner up was unlucky and was on my short list with Point Barrow. For win purposes the winner often lies in the top ten in the betting. I just prefer one more stat , I prefer a 9 and 10 year old to 8, I kust think the extra year and experience count. The last 4 out of 5 winners prove my point. Mckelvey gets there next year fit and gets in under 11st it must be followed.Also I thought I had read it was the owner who had to sell the horse, I would never take a pop at Mr Nichols his record needs no challenging.

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posted Apr 26, 2007

I only backed 2 horses, both antepost, Silver Birch and Simon.
I thought the ground turning quicker would count against and in fact it did!
Otherwise both would have been well clear.
Watch out for Simon next year if its softer than good.
The fact that everyone acknowledged Silver Birch had previously been well fancied and backed for a previous National and yet was in at least as good form should have made some 'experts' to take notice.
Or was it just that those 'experts' that supported him then had hid the side of the goldfish bowl since.

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