Storm clouds gather but the season may be calmer

However, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has warned that people still need to be prepared.

The agency speaks of "a 50 percent probability of a near-normal season, a 25 percent probability of an above-normal season and a 25 percent probability of a below-normal season."

"This outlook is a guide to the overall expected seasonal activity," said said Gerry Bell, lead hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.

"However", he advised, "it’s not just about the numbers, it’s also about taking action."

"Prepare for each and every season regardless of the seasonal outlook. Even a near- or below-normal season can produce landfalling hurricanes, and it only takes one landfalling storm to make it a bad season."

NOAA’s seasonal hurricane outlook does not project where and when any of these storms may hit.

Last year, the Atlantic saw 16 tropical storms, eight of which became hurricanes. Five were category three or higher.

Forecasters agree

NOAA’s predictions are in line with often-quoted forecasters at Colorado State University who say six hurricanes are likely to hit the Caribbean region this year.

Calling it a possible average season, CSU researchers say global oceanic and atmospheric conditions that preceded active or inactive hurricane seasons in the past provide meaningful information about similar trends in future seasons.

The CSU team, led by Professor William Gray who has been forecasting hurricanes for 26 years, predicts 12 named storms, six of which they expect to be come hurricanes.

Of those, two are expected to develop into intense or major hurricanes (Saffir/Simpson category 3-4-5) with sustained winds of 111 mph or greater.

Other hurricane forecasting agencies have almost similar projections.

The US based private forecaster, WSI Corporation, is predicting 11 tropical storms for this year's hurricane season, with 6 of them developing into hurricanes.

WSI, which describes itself as providing weather-driven business solutions, downgraded its original forecast of 13 tropical storms.

And, private weather forecaster Planalytics expects a less active hurricane season in the tropical Atlantic this year as water temperatures and wind conditions make violent storms less likely.

	Haiti was pummelled by four hurricanes in 2008

They expect 10 named storms, six of which will become hurricanes, with one or two hitting category three or greater, said Jim Rouiller, senior energy meteorologist at Planalytics

"We have two factors working against an active season: cooler waters and increasing wind shear," Rouiller said,

He added that dust blown over the Atlantic from Africa and increased surface pressure will also contribute to a calmer season.

The big hitters

2008 was one of the most active seasons on record with 16 tropical storms, including eight that became hurricanes.

Hurricanes Bertha, Gustav, Ike, Omar and Paloma were intense 2008 storms that caused serious damage in the United States and the Caribbean.

Gustav, Fay, Hanna and Ike hit Haiti in quick succession between August and September last year.

	Cuba also took a battering

They also caused damage and disruption in nearby countries including Jamaica, Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Turks and Caicos, and the Bahamas.

Names retired

The World Meteorological Organisation subsequently removed Gustav, Ike and Paloma from the rotating list of storm names.

All of the removed names would have been used again in 2014.

They will be replaced by Gonzalo, Isaias and Paulette.

The first named storm for the 2009 season will be Ana.

Insurance and preparedness

In the region government agencies and private organisations have started reviewing their level of readiness for this year's hurricane season.

Hurricane insurance cover is one of the main issues for the region and alarm bells have been ringing over the troubles of the regional insurance giant Clico.

Governments across the Caribbean have been taking action to minimise the effects of the Clico collapse, especially for policy holders.

A Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility (CCRIF) was set up in 2007 to provide low cost hurricane and earthquake catastrophe coverage.

The CCRIF now has more than $65m in donations from governments and development organizations including the World Bank and the European Union.

The active 2008 season was bad financial news for global insurers, Lloyd’s of London.

Lloyd's reported pre-tax profits for last year of around $US3 billion, down by half from 2007 when calmer conditions allowed the business to generate soaring profits.