11 August, 2008 - Published 07:46 GMT

By Sir Ronald Sanders
The writer is a business consultant and former Caribbean diplomat

Venezuelan military build up

The bizarre remarks and actions of the Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez continue to concern anyone who is interested in the peace and security of the Caribbean region.

Chavez has recently purchased $4 billion worth of military equipment from Russia.

These include: 24 Sukhoi combat aircraft with missiles, Main battle tanks, transport aircraft, air defence systems and Kalashnikov AK automatic assault rifles.

This latest purchase follows a 2005-2006 agreement with Russia to buy over 50 combat helicopters, 12 Tor-M1state-of-the-art defence anti-aircraft and anti-ballistic missile systems and 100,000 Kalashnikov rifles.

Having purchased all this heavy-duty weaponry, Chavez boasted that his air force could sink the US Fourth Fleet which was recently deployed in the Caribbean reportedly on drug-interdiction duty.

He added that the Sukhoi aircraft has a considerably longer range than the US Lockheed MartinF-16 Fighting Falcons.

And he went on: "Any gringo ship that sails into brown waters (Venezuelan waters) will itself turn brown and go to the bottom, because they'll not get through."

'Sabre-rattling'

What all this hype from Chavez is all about is best known to him.

But, it does not make for logical analysis.

Normally, a government pursues a foreign policy that is linked to advancing its domestic concerns.

However, sabre-rattling at the US is hardly likely to advance Chavez’s popularity with Venezuelan people who have had a long tradition of close relations with the US, nor will it help the Venezuelan economy despite its earnings from high oil prices.

Chavez’s policies have been detrimental to Venezuela’s economy.

If oil prices were not as high as they now are, the economy would have been in serious trouble.

Data from the UN Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean reveals that Venezuela has the lowest Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) per GDP ratio in the 18 Central and South American countries.

In the period 1998-2002, it enjoyed an annual FDI average of $3.4 billion; last year it was $646 million only 0.3 per cent of its GDP of $236.4 billion.

He can hardly afford all this military spending.

Anti-American ideology

Chavez’s anti-George W Bush stance would have played well with intellectuals and some politicians who were pleased that someone had the gumption to criticise the US President and his policies openly.

Even Chavez’s warnings about the dangers of the US-proposed Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA) were not out of place.

An FTAA, governed by rules which suit the US and giving US companies free access to the markets of Latin America and the Caribbean without a strong development component and compensatory mechanisms for smaller countries, would be a disaster.

But, Chavez has lifted the anti-Bush stance to the level of an anti-American ideology.

He says that even if the Democratic Senator from Illinois, Barack Obama, were to win the US Presidential election, his attitude will not change.

America will remain, as he calls, it 'the evil empire'.

All that may be well and good as political rhetoric. However, the large military build-up in Venezuela is quite another matter.

Chavez says all this weaponry is to defend Venezuela presumably from a US military invasion.

However, if the US were determined to mount a military invasion of Venezuela, the weapons on which Chavez has spent so much of Venezuela’s petro-dollars would be helpful, but not decisive.

Like other countries in which the US has mounted such exercises recently – Afghanistan and Iraq – Venezuela’s military would be the first target.

No mood for war

In any event, a US attack on Venezuela would be an illegal act of aggression, unless it had the backing of the UN Security Council – a most unlikely development in the absence of some major Venezuelan transgression.

And, the possibility of a unilateral US invasion of Venezuela is so remote, it isn’t worth further consideration.

The US will be involved in Afghanistan and Iraq for some time to come, even if Obama wins the US Presidency.

Further, the American people are in no mood for war with any country where their vital interests are not greatly at stake.

Too many Americans have died and too much American tax payers’ money has been spent in these wars. Americans have had enough.

It is also significant that in the past few months, Nigeria has replaced Venezuela as the fourth largest supplier of oil to the US.

Reasons for concern in the region

So, why is Chavez building-up arms in Venezuela?

It may be that when he was dallying with the FARC group in Colombia (the military wing of the Communist party), he was concerned about a conflict with Colombia especially if he felt that the Colombian government would act as a US stalking horse.

But, he and Colombian President Alavro Uribe met in mid-July and agreed to 'a new page' in their relations.

Further, he made his latest Russian military purchases after the meeting with Uribe and after calling on FARC to lay down their arms and unconditionally release all of their hostages.

Whatever his reasons, Chavez’s build up of military arms will be causing alarm amongst the country’s neighbours.

In this connection, a recent statement by the leader of one of the opposition political parties in Guyana is relevant since Venezuela lays claim to two-thirds of Guyana.

Raphael Trotman, the leader of the Alliance for Change, has demanded that before a proposed Venezuelan built road or gas pipeline is allowed to pass through Guyana, Venezuela must renounce its territorial claim.

Similarly, it has to worry the small Caribbean island, Barbados, that Venezuela claims that a recent offshore oil bidding round by Barbados violates the maritime border with Venezuela.

Venezuela is a not a signatory to the UN Convention of the Law of the Sea. The Barbados Foreign Ministry has said that the bid does not infringe on the rights of any other state.

Chavez may be helping some Latin American and Caribbean countries through the crunch of high oil prices with his Petro Caribe arrangements, but his military build-up will cause them great unsettlement as well.

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