Election fever peaks in Barbados

Barbadians vote on Tuesday in the ninth general election since political independence from England in November 1966.

There will be one last big push for votes this weekend by the main contenders, the ruling Barbados Labour Party (BLP -the Bees) and the Opposition Democratic Labour Party (DLP -the Dems) as they seek control of the 30-seat House of Assembly.

When Prime Minister Owen Arthur announced the election date last December 20, both the Dems and the new People’s Empowerment Party (PEP) saw the timing as calculated to limit debate on the key issues and capitalise on the distraction and feel-good factor of the Christmas season.

The parties only formally launched their campaigns in the first week of the New Year. But what the campaign period lacks in length, it has had in intensity.

Unusual acrimony

By Barbadian standards it has been an acrimonious campaign – perhaps exemplified by the cancellation of televised national electoral debates due to disagreements between the two main parties over the format.

Another likely element is the so called 'Taiwan factor'.

There have been accusations Taiwan has been trying to influence the election outcome.

Those claims by the 'Bees' against the 'Dems' have been denied by the opposition party and Taiwanese officials in the region.

The closeness of the election race partly explains the acrimony.

Keen contest

It’s certainly the most keenly contested election in the country’s recent political history.

The last three national polls in 1994, 1999 and 2003 saw the BLP securing predictable and convincing wins over the DLP, which has struggled to regain political favour after its harsh structural adjustment programme of the early 1990s.

But the DLP of 2008 is the strongest the party has been since the death of its founding father, National Hero, Errol Barrow, in 1987.

Anticipating that a snap election might be called soon after 2007 Cricket World Cup, the Dems rallied behind their leader, David Thompson, and took their message to the people from October 2006.

It appears to have paid off for the DLP, whose slate includes 11 first-time candidates – twice as many as the BLP – and among whom only the party leader David Thompson has any experience as a Cabinet Minister.

Mr. Thompson, a 46-year-old lawyer, insists this should not cause voters undue concern.

“In 1994 Owen Arthur had never sat in a Cabinet before but he was made the Prime Minister and Minister of Finance in this country. Half of his Cabinet had never sat in a Cabinet before. Half had never sat in Parliament before.”

Mr. Arthur, a 58-year-old economist, is touting his team as “tried, tested, proven, and trusted” and focusing on their record of performance.

A 'two-horse' race?

The BLP boasts of strong, sustained economic growth, a record 7.1 per cent unemployment rate, low crime, and consistently high rankings in global human development league tables.

But even Mr Arthur admits that the party’s formidable election-winning apparatus has its work cut out.

"I am conscious of the fact that in the bosom of every man and woman there beats a desire for change," he said as he launched their campaign last week.

Saying it's not content to merely advocate a vague need for change, the DLP has been highlighting what it sees as the high cost of living, unaffordable land and housing, and declining standards in health care.

Still Mr. Arthur says he feels “touched by a special sense of history” at the prospect of securing an unprecedented fourth consecutive term for the BLP, which just 20 years ago had to claw its way back from a crushing 24 to 3 election defeat.

If he succeeds in leading the BLP to an unprecedented fourth consecutive term in office, he will have notched up a record that even the ‘Father of Independence’ Errol Barrow – hailed as greatest ever Barbadian statesman – failed to secure in the 1976 election.

On the other hand, 'Dems' leader David Thompson could be mere days away from becoming Prime Minister.

But a third general election loss as DLP leader would almost certainly mean the end of his aspirations for the premiership and reopen the leadership question within the DLP.

If the level of interest in the election and crowd attendance at the respective rallies are anything to go by, there should be a high turnout on polling day.

An opinion poll published Friday by the Caribbean Development Research Services points to a close contest, but gives the edge to the Dems (35.3 per cent) over the Bees (30.1 per cent), based on a projected 9.9 per cent swing against the government.

As the race goes down to the wire, for the first time since becoming Prime Minister, Owen Arthur might have to contemplate preparing a concession speech – just in case.