David Jessop The Director of the Caribbean Council

	Thomas Shannon has to convince world Governments to contribute to the "Freedom Fund for Cuba"

He now has the unenviable task of travelling the world trying to convince Governments and international organisations that they should contribute to President Bush’s proposed multi-billion dollar ‘Freedom Fund for Cuba’.

While the US President has formally asked the US Secretary of State, Condoleezza Rice, and the Cuban born US Commerce Secretary, Carlos Gutierrez, to lead this effort, it will be Mr Shannon who will have to do the work.

The fund was one of a number of new initiatives contained in a speech made in Washington by the US President on October 24.

The remarks, President Bush’s first on Cuba for four years, proposed a post regime change fund ‘to help the Cuban people rebuild the economy and make the transition to democracy’ through grants, loans and debt relief.

It also proposed to licence NGOs and faith based groups to provide computers and internet access to the Cuban people and to invite Cuban young people into the Partnership for Latin American Youth Scholarship programmes to have ‘equal access to greater educational opportunities’.

US not prepared to accept any dialogue with Cuba's leadership

The sub text however was more interesting.

The speech made clear that the US Administration was not prepared to accept any dialogue with the island’s collegiate leadership.

This is despite public and other recent suggestions from the Cuban Government that it was willing to open a dialogue based on mutual respect with Washington in the hope that this might lead eventually to more normal relations.

The United States, the US president said, “was prepared to take new measures right now….but only if the Cuban regime, the ruling class get out of the way”.

	President Bush called for Cuba to “embrace the people’s desire for change”

Later in his remarks he made clear that the US would “not seek accommodation with a new tyranny in the interests of stability”.

The US President also appeared to call directly on the Cuban military, police and officials to ‘embrace the people’s desire for change’.

They must decide, he said, whether to defend “a disgraced and dying order” or whether to “embrace (the) people's desire for change”.

Bemused media

Later at a press conference the Commerce Secretary Carlos Gutierrez and Thomas Shannon answered questions from a bemused media.

In one extraordinary exchange Secretary Gutierrez was asked what if the Raul Castro government remains in office.

His reply was: “The President was very clear if that’s the future of the Cuban regime, then that’s very unfortunate for the people of Cuba.….that’s a big big shame for the people of Cuba who deserve freedom”.

Even more bizarrely in response to a question on the timing of President Bush’s speech, Mr Gutierrez replied that “it's just one of these things. It seemed like as good a day - better than tomorrow and better than yesterday”.

	Carlos Gutierrez said the "Raul Castro government would be a "big shame for the people of Cuba"

Reporters also noted that, while President Bush gave the impression that the Freedom Fund would definitely be created, Mr Gutierrez merely indicated that “we will explore with our international partners the opportunity to create a freedom fund to support the Cuban people's transition to democracy”.

The paucity of content in Mr Gutierrez’s replies suggested an administration without any practical policy on Cuba other than to play to the converted among a largely older generation of US Cuban Americans in the electoral swing state of Florida.

In response, Cuba’s Government, in a show of confidence and disdain, gave live television coverage to much of the speech, ran extracts extensively in its print media, and criticised the US president for being arrogant.

President's remarks 'marginal to reality'

In almost all of Europe, the President’s remarks were privately greeted with dismay, being seen by officials as marginal to reality, failing to grasp what is happening internally in Cuba and lacking in ideas about how to engage with the islands increasingly pragmatic leadership.

In Cuba itself, a vigorous internal debate is underway on how the country should address the economic and social challenges it faces.

It revolves around issues such as economic management, efficiency, the improved delivery of social services and creating an economy that can deliver more materially.

This debate is largely characterised by pragmatism, an absence of socialist rhetoric and finding uniquely Cuban solutions.

From late 2006 a large number of Commissions reviewed most aspects of Cuban life.

This internal debate on options probably drew to a close in July.

Then Raul Castro made clear that a “structural and conceptual change” was necessary and that Cuba’s Government needed to establish what was economically most efficient and learn lessons from it.

A role for foreign investment

He also spoke of a future where there was “a predominance” of socialist property and a “non-monolithic approach to development”. He envisaged a role for foreign investment providing capital, technology and markets.

He used Fidel Castro’s words from 2000 to justify this approach: ‘it means changing all that ought to be changed….it is defying powerful and ruling forces inside and outside the social and national spheres’.

Subsequently Raul Castro made clear that the new Cuban economic model would be based on Cuba’s tried and tested military economic model that successfully operates in the tourism and other sectors.

	Raul Castro envisages a role for foreign investment providing capital, technology and markets

He also initiated a public debate to achieve the endorsement of the conclusions he alluded to in July and it would seem to guarantee the ‘socialist legitimacy’ of what is being proposed.

As a consequence a fundamental national debate has been underway on the economic relationship between centralisation and decentralisation, and the future interconnection between producers, buyers, sellers, distributors in the chain of supply as well as on taxation, encouraging productivity and by extension material gain.

This may result, sometime after elections to the National Assembly in November, in announcements that lead to significant agricultural reforms, a new approach to foreign investment in areas regarded as economically strategic, and to other social and economic reforms.

All of which is not to suggest that Cuba is changing its overall model or its approach to organised dissent.

Recognising the need to develop new economic thinking

Rather it is beginning to come to terms with its inefficient system and recognising the need to develop new economic thinking if its social model is to survive.

Cuba faces the same challenges as all other Caribbean nations.

Food security, energy security, climate change and economic globalisation all require new approaches to economic and social organisation.

Like others it has recognised that this requires significant changes to a system that was, as one young Cuban recently noted to me, created in the fire of the cold war.

This is a reality well understood at high levels in Europe, Canada and most of the rest of the world where this is seen as presenting an opportunity for engagement.

Unfortunately it is a view that President Bush and his advisers seem to be wholly out of touch with.

David Jessop is the Director of the Caribbean Council and can be contacted at david.jessop@caribbean-council.org