Confident Bird predicts another win at polls

After being in government for more than 30 years, Antigua Prime Minister Lester Bird says Tuesday's election will be his last.

Speaking to BBC Caribbean Service ahead of the election, he acknowledged that after so many years of Antigua Labour Party rule, the Antiguan people might be looking for a change.

However, Mr Bird believes that his track record is enough to convince Antiguans to give the ALP another change to lead them.

Mr Bird told BBC Caribbean Service Bertram Niles that he is confident of victory, and that his party will win at least 11 of the 17 seats being contested in the election.

Bertram Niles: Mr Prime Minister, there are predictions that you're on your way out.
Lester Bird: We have been looking at some of those predictions and we have analysed them and we have found they are very simplistic, not scientific and really on the ground where we are really concentrating, it's not a realistic prognostication of what's going to happen.
We have had our own tracking poll. We have 12 young people at a call centre that have been doing a tracking poll for one month. And based upon our tracking poll, we are on target to win 11 seats, at least.

BN: You said you've dismissed some of these polls but some have been conducted by respected organisations like Caribbean Development Research Services, an organisation that has done some work in Barbados and predicted some of the general elections there.
LB: When they did that poll, it was at a time when there was a question about a swap we've been doing with Mr Stanford, with respect to a post office and some land and some additional projects we were doing with Mr Stanford.
The questions as we analysed them were posited in such a way as to get the responses that they wanted and that is a negative approach to the relationship between the government and Mr Stanford.
At that time it was a topical issue and we understand that a fair amount of people were concerned about those arrangements we were making but since then the Labour Party has been on a surge and we are clearly satisfied that even last night we had a tremendous night, and we are satisfied that we are on the way to winning the elections.

BN: Why do you think Antiguans will vote you back in?
LB: Because we have produced and performed - even the opposition has not attacked us on issues.
And you will notice that the leader of the opposition, or none of his people have suggested that there should be a debate between Mr Baldwin Spencer and myself.
Because on the question of issues and performance, there is no doubt that the Labour Party has delivered the goods.
In terms of projects, we have done so many projects that they cannot gainsay that. And if you look in their manifesto, clearly they have not addressed many of the issues. The question of whether they are going to introduce personal income tax, they addressed the issue of crime, they have not addressed a significant amount of people. They have offered the non-nationals a so-called millennium citizenship which will reduce citizenship from seven years to three years even though they know that requires a referendum.

BN: They have addressed the issue of corruption which they believe is the government's Achilles Heel.
LB: Well, in fact we understood that was going to be a major issue in this election but we have signed a code of conduct in which all the ministers and the candidates have to declare their assets and we have laid down laid down strict guidelines by which we have ratified the Inter American Treaty on Corruption.
We recognise that under the medical benefits scheme enquiry, there were certain things that were declared. All the men who were involved in that situation are in fact no longer with the government. They are running against the government and that is very interesting.

BN: Clearly that is a lingering problem for your government?
LB: I have no doubt that is a lingering problem, but our tracking polls seem to suggest that the paramount thing now is the question of the creation of jobs.
We posed the question to these people and asked them to find out whether the corruption issue was riding as high as it was a month or so ago. The truth is that although it's there clearly, it is not the major concern of the electorate at this moment.

BN: But how much should we believe this tracking poll? You keep mentioning it, how scientific is it?
LB: It is more scientific that those you've mentioned. We have Mr Ron Lester from Washington who has also done work in Jamaica for Mr Patterson and he has done work in other islands. He works with the Democratic party and he's now part of the Kerry campaign.

BN: One of the things we've been hearing, you mentioned the confidence you have on this campaign but some people have been saying that you're lashing out at business people, at young people and it's almost like a drowning party.
LB: Well if they feel to interpret it that way, that's fine. I've always said the business community in Antigua is relatively moribund and they haven't helped to create any wealth in the society.
And I've called upon them to step forward to the plate. I still believe that once we've won the election, we have to enter into some synergy with the private sector to understand that their role has got to be more than just buying and selling.
In terms of young people, what I said was that there was a certain class of youg people who this government has given scholarships, we've given them education, sent them abroad and when they come back they do not want to associate with the grassroots party which is the Labour Party. They have taken to being very bourgeois and that is what I was essentially saying.

BN: But won't the education help them to make up their own minds as well?
LB: It helps them make up their own minds but what I'm saying is the reality is that's what the situation is and what they should do is come if they feel the labout party needs to be energised - as some of them have done - they should come and join the labour party, that is what I am saying.
Last Sunday, we had 6,000 young people who put on a march on behalf of the labour party. We are satisfied that of the youth between 18 and 35 we are going to win the majority of those votes, not withstanding what these spurious polls are saying.

BN: But it would have been a high risk strategy, if you're going to win the youth vote, why attack the youth vote?
LB: I'm not attacking the young people I'm just saying they've opted for the other side, can't I say that? Can't I indicate in terms of the demographic, that’s what is happening, that of 106 lawyers 100 are opposition. That's a fact. Now what do you say about a ratio like that?
I am saying that it's because they don't want to associate with a grass roots party which is the oldest indigenous institution in Antigua and Barbuda, the Antigua Labour Party and the Antigua Trades and Labour Union, and that's all I am saying. I am saying that rather than come back to their roots and try to transform it, they opt to go the other way with people who are the descendents of plantocrats and that is what I'm saying.

BN: But the fact is they may be saying we've had the Birds for a long time and maybe it's time for a change.
LB: Any government that's been in office or any family that's been in power for a long time runs the risk that people may say its time for a change, and that's the issue I think may be bubbling in terms of what's happening to us. But in recent weeks, we have been able to get across the point that there's a continuum that's taking place. Nine of the 17 candidates are new people and a lot of them are young people who have come forward, including Daven Joseph, who used to be the head of the Fisheries Department of the OECS.
People like Osmond Lake who was the co-managing director of Liat. So we are recruiting young people and the change is taking place internally as far as we are concerned. The majority of people we are putting forward as candidates are new people. So we believe that we are demonstrating that we are not out of tune with the changing times.

BN: So you're saying your greatest hurdle in this election is to persuade people and you think you’ve done that successfully that this is not the time for a change?
LB: In terms of performance, everybody believes the Labour Party has done a good job. But the question that you raised, not withstanding that the we have done a good, is whether its time to change, the Birds have been there for too long, that has been a major part of the campaign.
That is why the opposition has not faced issues and that's why their manifesto is a disaster. Because they've been offering all kind of blandishments, EC$270 million of giveaways when we having difficulties in meeting our fiscal situation. It means they'll have to send home 4,000 people, it means they're not introducing any taxes.
They haven't said whether they're going to introduce personal income tax, they haven't said what they're going to do about crime. It's only intended to bribe the electorate.

BN: But Mr Prime Minister, having heard what's gone in the past in Antigua's elections, the Labour Party itself isn't immune to giveaways.
LB: I do not accept those allegations that have been made that the Labour Party in the past has done anything remotely close to what the allegations of the Opposition are.
That's why it's very important that we have the Commonwealth observers and the Caricom observers here because we don't want when they're defeated again that they say that they didn't have a fair shot at it. I do not accept that the Labour Party has corruptly won the elections we have won. The last Commonwealth group said the last elections were free, people had the right to go and vote.

BN: But they did identify weaknesses in the electoral system.
LB: I do not accept your premise that the Labour Party won elections in the past by doing illegal things.

BN: Finally Mr Prime Minister, what about your own future? I think I read you being quoted as saying that this is your last election.
LB: Yes it is, I have decided that with this my seventh election, the time has come for me to move on and so as far as I am concerned this is my last term assuming the electorate decides they want me to continue.

BN: Will you serve it out or will you go before?
LB: I might not fully serve it out quite frankly, but I don’t want to make any judgements now. One thing is for sure is that after this term, I will not be running again.

BN: Thank you Mr Prime Minister.