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Will there be change in post-Nargis Burma?
 
refugees
General Thura Shwe Mann is tipped to take the rein in the army
Political changes followed disasters in some countries around the world.

Many hope that there would be political changes in Burma after facing such a humanitarian disaster brought upon by the cyclone Nargis.

Therefore the questions for this week are ...

"Will there be political changes in Burma?"

"Could there be new developments within the ruling military that could bring changes in the country?"


The followings reflect the balance of opinions received so far...

It all depends upon how badly Burmese people want to free themselves from this despotic regime, who has little care for the majority of people. How many of us are prepared to sacrifice? Are we willing to pay the ultimate price, if necessary, for our children's future? The changes in Burma are still a distant dream because there is no such commitment from millions of us. Most of us have lived under oppression for almost half a century (46 years) and majority of us don't even know what a 'FREE PERSON' is suppose to have.
Khin Thitsar, Rangoon

There simply has to be changed. The SPDC cannot simply remain blind forever. The protests last September and this disaster have put them under the world's watch more than ever before. Their greed will come back to bite them.
Jonathan Paul Katz, New York, United States

I do not think the regime will change. On the positive side, let us put the pressure on the regime by getting more active and involved in social politics. What I mean by social politics is not to get rid of the regime but to change people's role in Burmese society. For example, rather than sitting without doing anything, we Burmese should persuade the government to improve water and electricity services. There will be risks involved, but without sacrifices, there will be no improvements. If more and more people get involved, the pressure for improving Burmese people lives will build up. This has nothing to do with politics. If we are all even afraid in doing this kind of social works, then there will be no hope for Burma's future. Leadership from Burmese people will be very important in doing this matter. Comedian Zaganar and actor Kyaw Thu are two good examples who help change and improve our society. More should follow.
Than Aung, Alabama, USA

 Nargis had slammed Burma with physical impact (150mph); but political impact is most severe as Burma is in world spotlight again and exposing most inhumane nature of generals.
 
Aung M. O., Singapore

Judging by recent events - arresting aid donors and NLD members, restricting communication channels - it seems political changes is unlikely. Even if all the present old generals are replaced by another wave of new generals, I do not see changes in Burma. All these generals are afraid of changes for some reasons. I think changes could come in Burma if individuals fight for their rights, for example, the right for better education and better quality health care etc. I am not saying that for example students should go out on streets and demonstrate to get a better education. I do not believe this is a good strategy. Students should rather organize and challenge the school authority and pressure him or her to change for the better without getting into politics. If everybody in Burma can do a thing like this, the pressure for change would be enormous.
Thura Aung, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia

There will not be any positive political changes for people in Burma without having any more uprising. There could be new developments in vision within the ruling military but it would be based on the same principles to rule the country by dictatorship and maybe much more badly in practice because they all are devils and father like sons. New development in the country can be seen when there are a large-scale people uprising like 8888. Unfortunately, it is very much unlikely to happen again in the near future because there is no known established Under Ground movements in the country and UG movements inside the country is one of the most important keys to have such a political uprising. Military generals will never give chances to people. They will keep the power for their lives. It is Burmese people's responsibilities to make military regime give up its power. If you are a Burmese, believe in total quality and do something for your country.
Paut Kyine, Auckland, New Zealand

No. Not at all. In late 70s and early 80s, people wondered there would be a big change if U Ne Win dies...etc. It will never happen, unless they are forced to change. Then the question is who/what will be the enforcer. In addition, the main issue to build up the country is "corruption issue". This is the most destructive internal enemy in every country. Never ending story, generation by generation and generation. It will take at least a generation to fight against this. So do not waste time.
Mar Lwin Aye, Melbourne, Altona

 Most of us have lived under oppression for almost half a century (46 years) and majority of us don't even know what a 'FREE PERSON' is suppose to have.
 
Khin Thitsar, Rangoon

Politically, SPDC is controlling everything, why do they want to change. They would be worse off from changes. In dealing with SPDC, NLD must find a way to encourage SPDC to change. Instead of attacking them all the time, NLD must build trust with SPDC. I know this will be difficult, but this does not mean it cannot be achieved. Without Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, NLD seems totally paralyzed. Can the west help our country? I guess not. SPDC will continue to put Daw Aung San Suu Kyi under house arrest and economic sanctions will be in effect. This cycle will continue with no end in sight. If NLD want changes, they themselves must begin to change first. Otherwise, support for NLD could wane in the future within our country.
Saw Yan Naing, Bangkok, Thailand

Nargis had slammed Burma with physical impact (150mph); but political impact is most severe as Burma is in world spotlight again and exposing most inhumane nature of generals. Previous general Ne Win reign lasted 26 years, even with a strong Socialist ideology, giving in to public revulsion of '88. Now general Than Shwe is into his 20-yr reign, how long he can last, not even with any ideology to rule. All generals, based on greed & corruption lost all moral authority to rule since losing '90 election. In addition, Nargis had heightened internal pressure (political & economical) to a new climax, which generals never know how to handle. Therefore, most probably 20yrs might be enough for general Than Shwe in the aftermath of Nargis.
Aung M. O, Singapore

Burmese army interest is to hold the power anyway possible. Even in the worse time right after the cyclone hit, the army went after with the plan of vote for their constitution. Another point is army has been in power even at the worse situation such as at the beginning of Ethnic Rebellion. Now at this moment, army is even making economic surplus from energy sector, and army still have trade partner such as China, Thailand and Singapore. If we try to cover from every corner, I do not think there will be any sign of changing Burmese Army policies, especially diplomacy way. How hard for Ban Ki Moon to meet with General Than Shwe? Will army leaders meet with international diplomats? It is not quite logical.
Tom Tun, Calgary, Canada

 
 
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