Background guide #7
Flying
Whenever the debate over climate change is aired - flying, and the harm it does in terms of CO2 emissions, is to the fore. As you'll see from the actions elsewhere on this site, skipping a long-haul flight can be one of the most effective ways to cut our carbon footprint.
Yet the UK aviation industry claims it's responsible for only a modest 7% of the country's greenhouse gas emissions. And if that's true, can flying really be so bad?
Quick Jump
Pub Fact
- One short-haul flight has the same potential to warm the climate as three months worth of driving a 1.4 litre car
- Less than half of Brits fly for their holidays
- The average annual income of Heathrow passengers is £54,488
- Around a third of flights from Heathrow and Gatwick are delayed by over half an hour
- In 2006, British airports handled more than 200 million passengers and it is predicted that that number will double over the next 15 years
- 56% of people are concerned about the environmental effects of air travel, but only 10% have reduced the number of flights they take
- One flight to Sydney generates emissions equivalent to driving a mini around the earth 640 times
- To avoid more expensive airspace, certain airlines take longer routes to the Canary Islands, creating an extra three tonnes of CO2 per flight
- 56% of people are concerned about the environmental effects of air travel, but only 10% have reduced the number of flights they take
- Over 10 years, all UK CO2 emissions (transport, farming, housing and construction) fell by 9%, apart from flight emissions, which doubled
- What's the problem?
- What can we do?
- Can technology help?
- What are the politicians doing?
- What's the climate impact of aircraft emissions?
What's the problem?
While aviation emissions may seem relatively low now, they are growing faster than any other source of greenhouse gases in the UK. Brits currently take 200 million flights a year but if air travel continues to increase at current rates this will rise to 600 million by 2030. The Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research estimates that before 2050, UK aviation emissions could exceed the emissions budget of the whole UK economy, wiping out hard-earned reductions in other areas.
What can we do?
We can fly less. Like it or not, analysts say that is the simplest way to reduce passenger numbers in time to stop dangerous levels of climate change. But there is good news: we don't have to give up flying altogether. In fact, the majority of flights are taken by a small percentage of people who fly frequently. In 2007, for example, a third of all flights were taken by just 4% of the population who took five or more flights a year. So the most effective change would appear to be for frequent flyers to dramatically cut their air miles, while those of us who fly more than twice a year cut down a little.
It needn’t mean missing our holidays either: since 27% of flights from Britain go to Spain and 50% to the rest of Europe, taking the train is an increasingly viable substitute.
Choosing to fly less often, to holiday in Britain or to visit Europe by train instead of flying offer some of the most significant CO2 savings of any personal action.
Can technology help?
As yet there's nothing that will prove effective enough soon enough to significantly reduce aviation's impact on climate change, but various proposals exist to improve the efficiency of flying:
- Better air traffic management systems - this would include filling planes to capacity and therefore scheduling fewer flights
- More efficient planes such as the Airbus A380 could reduce emissions compared to older aircraft, but it would take decades to replace existing fleets and the savings are being outweighed by air traffic growth. Planes are becoming more efficient by about 1% a year, while the industry grows by 7% a year
- Alternative fuels - aircraft have flown on biofuel blends in recent test flights, but they are unlikely to be used on regular flights in the foreseeable future while technical issues remain to be addressed. There are also significant question marks over the sustainability of biofuels. The first manned hydrogen fuel cell plane recently carried two people in a test flight conducted near Madrid, but scaling this technology up for commercial passenger jets is expected to take at least 20 years, and would create contrails, which may further warm the climate
- Airships - you may laugh, but an airship running on non-flammable helium is one of the least polluting forms of passenger travel. An Atlantic crossing to New York would take around 45 hours. Before you rush to buy your ticket, this route is not yet commercially viable
- Flying more slowly - in a bid to reduce fuel, Belgium's Brussels Airlines have cut weight on aircraft and started to fly more slowly on certain routes. This adds a minute or two to journey times and saves 1 million Euros on their annual fuel bill. Planes on other routes currently fly at pre-set speeds, putting a limit on such savings
What are the politicians doing?
Political progress on reducing aviation emissions might be categorised as, at best, uneven. Unlike with trains, buses and cars, international flight emissions are not included in the Kyoto protocol (the legally binding inter-governmental contract to reduce greenhouse gas emissions). The reason for this omission, say governments, is that flights cross many international borders, making it hard to identify who's responsible for aircraft emissions.
Aviation will, however, be included in the European Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) - but not until 2011. The Department for Transport anticipates plane travel emissions will be capped at 2004/6 levels. Even then, scientists at the Tyndall Centre suggest the ETS will do little to reduce actual plane travel emissions because airlines will be able to increase passenger numbers through buying in extra permits. And they predict that the small price rise proposed for plane travel under the ETS will deter very few people from flying.
Meanwhile, UK government aviation policy - as set out in the 2003 aviation white paper - seems sure to result in large-scale aviation expansion, including a third runway and sixth terminal at Heathrow. And Britain looks set to expand its airports around the country on a scale greater than that envisaged by any other European nation. Air operators claim this will benefit passengers by cutting congestion. Campaigners respond that making flying more appealing will simply increase demand, in turn increasing the need for further new airports and runways - a pattern demonstrated by recent road-building policies which, they argue, have actually increased traffic congestion.
Another criticism of Britain’s aviation policy is that the industry has an effective subsidy of around £10 billion a year as no tax is levied on aviation fuel in the UK, and plane tickets are VAT-free.
The government defends its policy on the grounds that aviation is critical to supporting the UK’s world status as a hub for finance, industry and tourism.
What's the climate impact of aircraft emissions?
Flying injects exhaust emissions directly into the upper part of the atmosphere, where they cause the most damage. The effects of the resulting mix of chemical reactions are complex and hard to calculate, occurring over timescales between three days and 100 years. Even so, scientists believe that between 1992 and 2050, the overall impact of these emissions will prove somewhere between 1.2 and four times that of CO2 at ground level. (Contrails add to this mix of effects. Made up of soot and water vapour, scientists know that in some weather conditions contrails cause cirrus clouds to form, which warm the climate further, though these effects are as yet poorly understood).
What difference does this make in practice? Well, the CO2 emissions of a return flight from the UK to Malaga for example are 480kg. If you multiply by the lower estimate of 1.2, the true extent of the damage would be 570kg - the same amount of CO2 saved by recycling nearly 15,000 green bottles. At the upper end, emissions could top 1900kg.
This factor is also relevant when assessing the overall contribution of aviation to UK emissions. The government's figures on the climate change impact of flying are calculated based on domestic and international departures from the UK and suggest it contributes only about 7% of the country's CO2 emissions. But because of the extra impacts, research suggests that it's likely to create something closer to 11% of our national total.
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