Much ado about flu: some theories
I imagine you remember BSE and mad cow disease. Weren't we told that anyone who had ever eaten beef was supposedly at risk of life-threatening brain damage? And you probably remember the bird flu scare. Maybe you even remember necrotising fasciitis, the "flesh-eating bug", which had us all terrified a few years back.
Why are we so prone to health hysteria? And why do we apparently find it so difficult to tell the difference between a scare story and a genuine health emergency?
I have some theories. First, we live in a complex, confusing, technologically-challenging world. We are never quite sure how fresh is the food that we eat or how pure is the air that we breathe. We lie awake at night and worry: do I know enough, understand enough, to make the right decisions for myself and my family?
We scour the newspapers and sit glued in front of the TV or radio, hoping to learn something that will help us understand. Should I be eating more eggs, or fewer? Should my children drink more fruit juice, or less?
But the answers are usually as confused as the questions. We no longer automatically believe what we're told, anyway - so even if a Government minister, or a doctor, tells us "This is how it is", we are sceptical, or dismissive.
Which brings us, as you knew it would, to swine flu. Or flu, as I prefer to call it. I imagine that, like most people, you've had flu at some point in the past, and survived. (No jokes, please, about men who get flu: everyone knows that men suffer much more when they're ill than women do ... it's just the way we're made.)
Swine flu is this year's flu. The only difference, so far as I can make out, is that the virus is slightly different from the ordinary, common-or-garden, seasonal flu, which means that the vaccine which is usually given to vulnerable people isn't effective. This new flu may be a bit more likely to spread, but it seems to be no more serious as an illness (if anything, it might be a bit less serious - at least, for most people).
All right, so why all the fuss? Here's my theory. First, officials never want to be accused of being unprepared, or of having failed to warn the public of a genuine danger. So they are naturally tempted to err on the side of pessimism.
Second, it is part of their job to prepare for the worst. They have spent ages drawing up detailed contingency plans. So when we reporters ask them: "What's the worst case scenario?", they have a nice, scary answer ready and waiting.
And why do we reporters always seem to look for the worst case scenario? Well, imagine tonight's programme. I read the top headline: "There seems to be a new flu virus, but no one seems too worried." Alternatively, I read: "There seems to be a new flu virus. Government scientists say up to a million people could be affected." Which one would keep you listening? (Honest answers only, please.)
We don't do hysteria on The World Tonight. We try to separate fact from speculation, and we try to examine, dispassionately, what officials are saying and how the experts react. As for me, I travel to work every day by Tube, and as I hang on to the rail, I remind myself that thousands more hands have been there before mine. Some of them, doubtlessly, have been coughed or sneezed on. So I wash my hands as soon as I get to the office.
If you want more information or guidance, the National Flu Service website is up and running, or you can try phoning 0800 1 513 513.
I'm taking a break for the next couple of weeks, and will try very hard not to think about swine, or flu.
© 2012~RS~q~RS~~RS~z~RS~43~RS~)
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Hello Robin
I would suggest H1N1 as the least ambiguous, most generally understood term.
As I have suggested in a different context (i.e., that of terrorist threats), humans have been naturally selected for to pay particular attention to bad news, the heedless simply having been weeded out over time.
Added to this, essentially all of the selection process has taken place before the advent of global media. For our distant ancestors, news of danger having arrived, it would be expedient to assume that the threat had approached at least as close as the the next village, making it of primary concern.
Our genetic make-up has not had time to adjust to the difference that global media services make. We hear of a new virus making the rounds that, rationally, we should know we probably won't catch and that we'll almost certainly brush it off easily even if we do. Still, our genes lead us to switch on our fight-or-flight response, just to be on the safe side, at the same time as giving us to assume that the danger must surely be nearby otherwise we could not have learned of it.
The world media - The World Tonight excepting, if you insist - are aware of all of this and pump out as much grim material as they can so as to hold our attention.
And we love it. We're made to.
Best regards
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I can see why the World Health Organisation is understandably edgy when another strain of flu appears; particularly when they originate from animal/avian strains; as a 'new' strain, humans have had no time able to develop any immunity to it.
Although swine flu is turning out to be 'just another flu' lets not forget the 1917/18 'Spanish flu' pandemic killed a estimated 50 million people worldwide. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1918_flu_pandemic
Many human diseases have origins in diseases that originated from animals. Through millennia of close contact people and animals were exposed to each others microbes; over time mutation allowed animal diseases to become ones that could also afflict humans; e.g. bovine-rinderpest mutated to become human measles. The close contact between animals and humans also meant that humans built up some level of immunity.
As another example, Smallpox originates from an animal virus; probably from cattle, horses or camels, all of which have similar strains of viruses.
When Europeans began colonisation of the Americas vast numbers of indigenous peoples died from diseases the Europeans and their livestock brought with them, the pre-Columbian Americans had no cattle, horses, pigs etc. They also had no immunity whatsoever to these new diseases, particularly smallpox.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aztec#Colonial_period_population_decline
Modern medicine is only around 150 years old. Before that disease was responsible for most human mortality up to that time. We too easily forget just how terrible an epidemic can be.
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Is it beyond the realms of fantasy to suspect that drug companies might have anything to do with whipping up pulic hysteria?
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People may have noticed that unlike most seasonal flu this one just keeps hanging around and is currently vacationing in the Southern Hemisphere and planning to return when the weather turns. No one knows what will happen, so not a bad idea to follow but there is no way to plan for all the "what if's." What if it only infected bankers, well we would all cheer, but if it infects the young, that could be bad. Better than talking about the economy or whatever stupid things the governments are planning. Predictions provide a certain level of excitment until the event occurs and reality sets in.
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Now guys, Robin was at university when the 1969 flu pandemic hit and I guess even through it is said to have killed twice as many this one's estimated mortality - if he is anything like me, he probably can't even remember taking any precaution - even washing his hands more regularly - basically because he didn't even notice it at the time - just like the rest of us who were around at the time. We all just did what students do - drink, etc... (After the pill and before aids/sida - ahhh those were the days!!!)
In 1969 there were no anti-virals and healthcare, although having many more hospital beds, was more privative. Is this reaction hysterical? Time will tell. I think it is, but so far I've not had it, or at least I've not noticed having it. I think the flu-friend business is one of the reasons for the hysteria and the idea of quarantine - next we will see yellow paint on doors and carts going round the street ringing bells and shouting 'bring out your dead'! Seriously the hysteria is a serious matter as it may do more damage than the flu.
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Panning the pandemic panic Mr. Lustig? Your memory seems short. There was a very good reason to be scared of this particular strain of flu or have you forgotten so quickly? When the flu first made a well documented appearance in Mexico, it was not only deemed highly contagious but apparently otherwise healthy people in the prime of their lives were dying in surprising numbers after contracting it. That is not typical of most strains of flu. Most of those who die of flu are usually either very old, very young, or have some other serious underlying medical condition that makes the the disease a complication their bodies cannot deal with. Whether or not this has now been resolved is hard to tell but it is clearly highly contagious and has spread all over the world. Tonight on the news, it was reported that the WHO claims as many as two billion people may ultimately be infected by it. That remains to be seen. That is nearly one third of the entire human race. In the "first world" where governments have huge resources, have stocked up on anti viral medications, will have flu vaccine in abundance, and have the medical infrastructure to deliver it, this may be no worse than any other flu outbreak, however, in the developing world this strain may take a fairly high toll that could affect the social stabilitiy of entire nations just as AIDS has in some parts of sub Saharan Africa.
I wouldn't be too ready to dismiss the consequences of mad cow disease either. It was reported that the effects of consuming meat tainted with prions could take 20 to 30 years to manifest itself as clinical disease. That amount of time has not elapsed since the scare yet. You wouldn't dismiss the consequences of heavy cigarette smoking that can take a similarly long time to cause disease would you?
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#5 - Clearly you have been reading 'Flat Earth News' by Nick Davies.
Andrew Marr's book 'My Trade' also sources the origin of scary news stories to the Daily Mail many many moons ago reporting the gruesome death by fire of someone who got trapped in their burning house in London.
Sales shot up, and the modern obsession with fear, terror and bad news was born. Sex sells, death shifts papers.
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Most of this is about the governments trying to show that it can do something right. As we all know the current economic crisis was in part do to the fact that the governments failed in their responsiblities to regulate banks and credit. Now they hope to regain the confidence of the people by fighting the flu. Of course this is a disconnect, but we are talking about governmental thinking. Somehow in their minds if they deal with the flu this will make everyone feel confident in their ability to handle the financial crisis. The flu has no money to give politicans, so the similarities are distant. The flu is real....the PR is not. In such governmental endeavors you must always remember the politicians only ask one question.."what's in it for me."
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Robin:
I am in complete agreement about the "separation" of hype of the SWINE FLU...
I hope you enjoy your time off!!!!
~Dennis Junior~
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This little piggy flew!
;-)
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Flu it's all great and wonderful. But there isn't a place in the BBC blogs where a Russian can tell what she thinks about the "one year anniversary of the Georgia-Russia war".
Euroblog closed up for a month, American blog closed up for a month... for repairs :o)))))
A nice warm (quarrelsome) company of regulars that got together at Mark Mradell's is displaced and homeless ! How nasty.
How do people live in Britain overall I wonder when some external power, machine-like and impersonal can close up a nice talkative blog! any moment, without a warning! what a feeling.
Anyway it is pleasant to see the BBC on Georgia one year later on is still in the old style, "Georgia marks the anniversary" (of attack, presumably) "lighting bonfires", "Many think Saakashvili was acting rashly, falling into the Russian trap " (Hitler was also acting rashly? falling into the Russian trap? Must be yes.)
I wonder how people "mark the anniversary" of attacking someone. what do you do, "to mark"? Cake with candles doesn't fit the occasion... ?neither 50 year marriage things ...?
Charming that "138,000 Georgians had to leave their houses in South Osetia in the result of the war" (there were only 70,000 combined total citizens, of all kinds, in the SO)
And then you look at the reporter's reporting from South O., "one year after the war", think - now! He will tell something how South Ossetians were bombed by Georgians.
No way, a BBC reporter mourns the poor Georgian citizens that had to leave South O. That is the main trouble of the South Osetia. That's what happened 1 year ago - Georgians had to take off and leave. Because nasty Russia came. That was what it was about.
All of a sudden - nasty Russia comes, native Georgians leave. That's what it was, aha.
Except that native Georgians began leaving SO days before the 7th of August, they were warned.
Unhappy with BBC, Alice
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WebAlice
BBC is following the French example and taking the month of August off. Just in case you didn't know, France shuts down for an entire month every August and goes on vacation. That's right, the whole country shuts down. Now some years ago, there was a terrible heat wave in France in August and because a lot of people were not at home, a lot of old people who were at home died in their apartments, nobody to look in on them to see if they were okay. So the moral of that story is that if you can't stand the heat, get out of the kitchen which is always a safe move in Britain with their cullinary skills being what they are and all. In fact there is now a battle raging over who invented haggis, the national dish of Scotland, the Scots or the English. Personally, from what I've heard about this dish some people find positively repulsive, I'd put my money on the English. So the South Ossetians couldn't take the heat either and neither could the Georgians. From where I stand it seems so remote and unimportant that I for one could hardly care less one way or the other. Why do you care so much, you've been carping on about it since it happened? Do you have relatives there? Fellow countrymen? As for the Balkins, although it's true the US bombed Serbia out of Kosovo and the rest of what it had planned as "Greater Serbia" ten years ago, it was the Europeans who insisted, begged, pled with President Clinton to do what they couldn't. And he did it over the objections of many Republicans in Congress. Now it's Europe's problem. So what's worse for the EU, swallowing West Ukraine AKA Poland and Georgia or getting swine flu? Good thing the European contingent of NATO has 2 million soldiers. Between Georgia, Ukraine, the Balkins, and their obligations in Afghanistan if President Obama holds them to it, they will need every last one of them. I think the US taxpayer is not only getting tired of carrying Europe's water for it but there's not much left in the till to pay for it anymore. If Europe wants an empire of its own, it will have to pay for it on its own.
Have no fear, the BBC Euro-blog and its counterparts in America and China will soon re-open under new management. Well it's really just the old management playing musical chairs. The music will stop soon and everyone will take a seat...except for Justin Webb I think who will take a break from posting. I fully expect Mark Mardell to post shortly after his arrival in Washington DC how Brussels had better food, better wine, better service, better ambience, friendlier people, softer matresses, and how he wishes he was back there. Oh well, he'll just have to rough it in the colonies for a few years. It's the price you have to pay for heeding the call of devoting your life to the work of being a journalist. Hope he takes time out from all those cocktail parties to post a word or two once in awhile. Washington politicians are known as great shmoozers...or is it schmoozers?
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