Iran: the shark reappears
I have written before (here and here) about Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, aka The Shark, former president of Iran and now one of the country's most influential and enigmatic clerics.
He was, behind the scenes, an important backer of the Mir Hossain Mousavi, the reformist candidate in last month's presidential elections. But since the disputed result of those elections, and the serious unrest that followed, he has lain low.
Now, with an extraordinary sermon at Friday prayers at Tehran university, he has reappeared in public and, in effect, thrown down the gauntlet to Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. As always when Iranian clerics speak, he spoke elliptically. But here, with thanks to Juan Cole at Informed Comment, is a flavour of what he said about the period immediately following the elections:
Doubt came down on our nation like the plague ... Why did it happen? We need unity today, more than ever ...What should we do? I have a few suggestions. Of course, I have discussed these suggestions with a few jurists and members of the Expediency Council, with whom I can intellectually connect ... Our important issue is that the trust that brought so many people to the polls, and is now harmed, will be restored. This should be our holy objective, that this trust is returned.
There was more:
We have to create an atmosphere that all sides can come and express their views. And all sides must act rationally and without quarrel ... Eventually the people will find out the truth and we can ask the people too. We have to provide the ground to return this trust to the people ... Under current circumstances, there is no need for us to have people in prisons. Allow them to return to their families.
In other words: free opposition protesters from prison. Stop censoring the media. Find some way to meet the complaints from the opposition that they were robbed of a victory that should have been theirs.
And all this weeks after the Supreme Leader had declared the election controversy over and warned people not to carry on with their protests. No wonder the reaction from pro-government clerics against Rafsanjani has been swift.
According to the Associated Press: "Hard-liners like Ayatollah Mohammad Yazdi struck back at Rafsanjani on Saturday, saying his speech would endanger the country by inciting supporters of opposition leader Mir Hossein Mousavi to take to the streets ... 'The leader (Khamenei) removed the threat of riots, but Mr. Rafsanjani is again seeking to provoke the danger," Yazdi was quoted as saying by the semiofficial Fars news agency.
Interestingly, though, the official Iranian PressTV website reports today that Rafsanjani is now visiting the holy city of Mashhad to confer with other senior Iranian clerics to "discuss the latest political ferment in the country."
What it all boils down to, I think, is that the crisis that erupted after the elections is far from over. And that what happens when the country's senior clerics meet behind closed doors is every bit as important as what happens out on the streets.


~RS~q~RS~~RS~z~RS~44~RS~)
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It was announced this week that the head of Iran's nuclear program for twelve years and a supporter of Mousavi resigned which begs the question why. Is this a protest against Ahmadinejad or a refusal to continue with a clandestine program to develop a nuclear bomb for him to use? Secretary of State Clinton gave a speech this week about Iran which I think BBC's analysts got dead wrong. The crux of the speech it seemed to me is that time for negotiations related to Iran's nuclear program is rapidly running out. Nobody should be under any illusion that most US analysts wouldn't find a nuclear armed Iran as deadly a threat to American security for many reasons as it would be for Israel's security. Not only is there the threat of a sneak attack but intimidation of the Arab states and the possibility of a nuclear arms race in the middle east. Many are betting that unless something happens, it may be just a matter of months before Iran theoretically has the capability to assemble a nuclear explosive device. As that time approaches, the US, Israel, and others will have to decide what course of action they will take or they will face the prospect of an entirely different balance of power in the world. Therefore time is also running out for these governments as well. They've said that a nuclear armed Iran is unacceptable and will not be allowed to happen. Now is the time for them to decide what they will do about it.
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Is this accurate from Nico Pitney http://tinyurl.com/m67y58:
'9:32 AM ET -- Rafsanjani's most important line? Via email, Portland State University professor R. Kevin Hill writes:
There was subtext and not-so-sub-subtext in several of Rafsanjani's remarks, based on the transcript of a live-blogger (caveats about accuracy, accuracy of translation, etc.) excerpt of which follows. If this is accurate, and I'm reading the oblique sermon style correctly, he's articulating a principle of popular sovereignty and calling on the government to resign. I've highlighted the crucial remark:
"The Imam [Khomeini] would always quote the Prophet [Muhammad] who would say to Ali [Muhammad's successor]: leave the people if they do not want you.'
If so, this would be a very significant comment, am I right?
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If you are participating in the Iranian Riots or know someone who is and wish to remain safe? Let me help by showing you how to distinguish between those who are angry and those who are lethal. http://www.aggressionmanagement.com/Riots-in-Iran.htm
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The force of Western society is seen everywhere. The concept of individual freedom is taking hold in many places where that concept is in contradiction with the accepted social order. The development of modern culture puts strains on the more traditional cutures. The younger generation always wants immediate change and the older generation always wants order. Specific countries are only variations on the theme. The middle east will change in time. That doesn't mean it will be a pleasant thing to watch but because the world is now connected with technology the control of ideas and information is impossible for governments. If Iran wants to look like Burma it can go in that direction, but Iran wants to stand out in their area of the world and want to dominate. This of course brings the attention of others. Don't stand up and yell and cheer and threaten others if you don't want the attention. Iran is faced with a force of young women who want change and as they say in China: Women hold up half the sky.
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Robin,
You wrote: "In other words:......Find some way to meet the complaints from the opposition that they were robbed of a victory that should have been theirs."
They have. Last week the Guardian Council published a detailed report on how they dealt with concerns about the election, like the option given to the opposition to random check 10% of the returns from any of the voting districts. The Mousavi camp declined the offer. The report includes all the correspondence they received from the opposition together with the written responses that were sent in reply. It was published in Tehran last week and has also been put on the Guardian Council website. We call it 'transparency.'
As far as I can tell, none of the correspondence has been disputed by any of the unsuccessful opposition candidates.
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The irony is that Bush named Iran as one of three states in the world on "an Axis of Evil" in 2002 when the 'Reformists' were in power!
All this 'disinformation' says more about the US and UK than it does about Iran.
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"Doubt came down on our nation like the plague ... Why did it happen?"
perhaps the continuous one-dimensional "reporting" we saw on EuroNews, and on the BBC, Channel4 and the other UK media had something to do with it?
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I said in posting #1 above that BBC's analysis of Secretary of State Clinton's speech of last week was wrong and today she gave another speech about Iran's and North Korea's nuclear weapons program proving it. The message was the same but this time she was less diplomatic and restrained in her warning as her emphasisi was on consequences of continuing their programs rather than on negotiations.
Meanwhile Iran's government continues to toy with Britain knowing from experience that it can taunt the UK with impunity. One British diplomat released on bail, a BBC correspondent arrested. It's all part of Iran's game. It has never paid a price for anything it has done and has no reason to expect it ever will.
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