Change we can believe in?
I've been thinking about something an American pundit said to me when we were discussing Barack Obama's election last November. "Just because we've changed presidents," she said, "doesn't mean that the rest of the world has changed as well."
I wonder if Mr Obama is thinking something similar as he ponders the results of his travels. Because he may be feeling that he doesn't have a great deal to show for all his glad-handing and speechifying.
I don't want to sound mean-spirited, so let's deal with the positives first. Yes, he was well received - even rapturously received - pretty much wherever he went. He spoke well, he seemed to be listening as well - and he said many of the things his hosts hoped to hear from him. And, if it matters, the First Lady was a great success too.
From the London summit to the NATO summit, from the Prague speech on nuclear disarmament to the speech to the Turkish parliament, the verdict of the punditocracy was that he didn't put a foot wrong.
But did his fellow world leaders in London accept his idea for a globally-agreed fiscal stimulus package? No. Did European leaders in NATO agree to send thousands more troops to Afghanistan to join the US in its counter-insurgency and counter-terrorism operations? Only in a very limited, and temporary, way.
And as for that briefest of touch-downs in Iraq, he arrived just a day after a co-ordinated series of bombings in Baghdad that cost nearly 40 lives. The suspicion is that restive Sunni militiamen are flexing their muscles as the (Shia) Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki tries to rein them in.
Mr Obama would like us to think that Iraq is no longer a major problem. He'd much rather we focussed on Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Iran. But I fear that Iraq is in fact still a major problem, or at least that it has the potential to be one. (Yesterday was the sixth anniversary of the fall of Baghdad to US forces, and it was marked by a huge demonstration calling for the US to get out now.)
It has long been acknowledged by military strategists that withdrawals are uniquely risky undertakings. Soldiers are never so vulnerable as when they are packing their bags and preparing to fly home. What's more, they inevitably leave a hole, which others want to fill for them after they have gone.
Here's what I'd be worrying about if I were contingency planning. First, the Sunni fighters of the Awakening Councils, whose anti-al Qaeda operations were a crucial element in reducing the levels of violence. Can Mr Maliki be persuaded to treat them with a degree of respect and understanding which until now he has seemed unprepared to show?
Second, the oil-rich city of Kirkuk, and the flashpoint city of Mosul. Both are tinder-boxes, and both have the potential to erupt at any time. The top US commander in Iraq, General Ray Odierno, is quoted in The Times today as saying that trouble in Kirkuk and/or Mosul could result in US combat troops staying in Iraq beyond the Obama-imposed deadline of 30 June next year.
(By the way, the number of US military deaths in Iraq last month was nine, the first time it has been in single figures since the invasion six years ago. The total number of US military deaths is put at 4,266.)
[UPDATE: Five American soldiers and two members of the Iraqi security forces were killed in a massive suicide truck bombing on Friday near the headquarters of the Iraqi national police in the northern city of Mosul, according to a US military spokesman.]
Don't forget: President Obama is now committed to a major escalation of US military involvement in Afghanistan. The last thing he wants is for things to get worse again in Iraq - but he can't be sure that won't happen.
And my sense is that if things do get worse, he won't get much help from US allies, however much they may have applauded his speeches over the past week. The prevailing view seems to be: "You lot got us into this mess, so you can get us out again." Not pretty, maybe, but hard times breed hard politics.
© MMIX~RS~q~RS~~RS~z~RS~08~RS~)
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I'd swear you'd read my comments on Mark Mardel's blog site. Obama came back with nothing to show for his trip. A useless waste of time. That is because countries don't have friends, they have interests and those interests have not changed just because the US has a newly elected president and a tyro to boot. Because of his inexperience he doesn't get it yet and that could have dire consequences for the US and the world.
America's departure from Iraq may very well leave a military power vacuum that will trigger a regional civil war between Shia and Suni. That is why McCain said he would stay a hundred years if he had to. Will that be a bad thing for the US and the World? In many ways yes, in some ways it may actually be beneficial. If al Qaeda is busy fighting the Shia, they may be less focused on the outside world. Oil prices will shoot up again as the supply line is in part jeopardized. Still time to left to buy Exxon and other oil stocks.
Will the Europeans bear the brunt of their fair share of the bruden in Afghanistan and Pakistan? I seriously doubt it. There may be tokenism for a while but they will pull out leaving America to do the heavy lifting just the way it always does. If the war does not go well, and the Pakistanis still can't or won't eliminate the sanctuaries of al Qaeda and the Taleban within their borders, will Obama go after them more directly and forcefully? He just might. What will that trigger for the world? And what if he doesn't. What if the civilized world loses to them? What if they manage to gain control over Pakistan's nuclear arsenal. Will the French and Germans still feel safe? Will the Dutch, Danish, and Italians? Will even Russia feel safe with al Qaeda having an arsenal of nuclear weapons at its disposal? Obama's talk of a world without nuclear weapons is dangerously naive. Which of those nations, Pakistan and Iran, will allow unlimited unannounced intrusive inspections to guard against secret violations?
If the financial and economic crisis gets worse, which governments will be able to resist the internal political pressure for protection of domestic jobs? Will Obama? His many constituents whose support gave him political power are not huge multinational corporations including banks the way Bush's were. They are auto workers and other blue collar workers within the borders of the United States. They expect him to protect their interests as his first priority and he'd better if he knows what's good for him.
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I don't think your article answers the question "if you were in Barak Obama's shoes, what would you do differently". He's trying to move the tone of US diplomacy from bullying to concensus, because you need to create a different foundation for a new sort of relationship. I didn't expect him to wave a magic wand over the G20 talks, just maybe get a very diverse group talking realistically about common action. Iraq and Afghanistan too are complex and messy problems. It takes time, and lots of ground work, before you bring about significant change.
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Mr. Lustig's comment has an unconscious Eurocentricism.
Are the UK, France and Germany of importance when compared with Turkey, Iran, Russia, China and India?
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#3 Considering the EU has the largest GDP in the world, by some distance (according to the CIA Factbook) when treated as a single unit - yes.
EU = 18,850,000 millions/total population of 499.7 million; US = 14,330,000 millions/total population of 306 million.
Just think how much higher that could grow when/if Eastern Europe catches the West.
I am not particularly happy with that answer but - yes. Germany - 4th biggest economy, France - 5th, UK 6th (+ Italy and Spain in 7th and 9th).
Whereas, Turkey is 17th, Iran is 27th, Russia is 8th, China is 3rd and India is 12th. China and India are genuine powerhouses (at different stages), it remains to be seen what will happen to Russia, Iran or Turkey ... also, chances are fairly good that Turkey will eventually become a member of the EU itself.
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"EU = 18,850,000 millions/total population of 499.7 million; US = 14,330,000 millions/total population of 306 million.
Just think how much higher that could grow when/if Eastern Europe catches the West."
Think of how much higher that would be for the EU if it admitted India and China.
It's this kind of thinking that has led to the absurd expansion of the EU and sealed its fate. It's grown from a little disosaur into a big dinosaur and the economic comet has just hit. I love it.
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#5 an insane and absurd comment, even by your own high standards MA.
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pattydeadwood
That took you all this time? Couldn't you find somerthing more original to say?
When the newly formed MU (Mediteranean Union) joins with the EU, they could become the EMU. Then the'll all go the way of the dodo.
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#4
How valid are dollars as a figure of merit?
The definition of GDP is even less meaningful, for it includes useless expenses.
In terms of importance, I had in mind "strategic importance". However, realpolitik would include GDP and population, so such measures may be validly considered.
(On a more general plane, one fault with western society is the use of dollars as a figure of merit.)
The question of relative importance does indeed involve future projections. I hope that we may consider it further.
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7. MarcusAureliusII,
The kid ain't too bright. He was trying to insult you but ended up complimenting you for your "high standards."
The one-sentence post is generally a cop-out from those who have no answer to the points raised. It's a transparent technique to hide the inability to debate the issue.
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In terms of geopolitics, should we consider today's relative importance, or tomorrow's?
I submit that it the future that one must consider (just as the number of females aged 15-30 is measured, rather than the present population).
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Too True, one of the joys of living as long as I have is that if it goes on much longer, I may yet see Europe implode. It's so much fun....from the outside. And it could hardly happen to a more deserving bunch. Aren't they nice guys? Think Eurabia. That's the future you must consider cooooldasiceinaglass. Throw away your Atra, Norelco, Shick, or whatever you shave with and learn which way Mecca is. You'll be required to face it and pray five times a day. Now repeat after me; "Ali's Snackbar." That's close enough :-)
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# But not getting much brighter, more original or less offensive as time goes on though are we Marcus?
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crosseyes, you aren't exactly the sharpest knife in the drawer yourself. I had to explain to you why I nicknamed you crosseyes because you didn't get it on your own. Now just how thick and dense can somone get? You Europeons never cease to amaze me. Just when I think it couldn't get any worse.....
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MarcusAureliusII,
I think Xie Ming is back. Have a look at the stilted style of nos 3, 8 and 10 and the little rhetorical flourish.
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Sparky, I'm so thick, dense and blunt that I've forgotten that you ever did explain. Please do enlighten me, I'm sure it's hilarious.
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crosseyes, I'm not going to tell you again. You want to read it because your attention span is slightly less than a potted geranium's? Go through the archives and hunt it down. I know you'd never be able to figure it out for yourself. Let's see if you can find it yourself. So far from what you've shown me, I'd take a bet that you couldn't find the floor with a map if someone pulled your legs out from under you.
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Unfortunately I can't find that reference; maybe it was removed because it was offensive or maybe I'm just not giving it the attention it deserves?
I seem to remember assuring you that my eyes aren't crossed, neither am I blind or partially sighted. You on the other hand appear to permanently don mental blinkers. I'm also an excellent map reader.
Anyhow, my friends the geraniums are calling....
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crosseyes;
"Anyhow, my friends the geraniums are calling...."
crosseyes, time for you to return to the mother ship.
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coololdiconoclast,
Your comments are childish, if your responses to factual statements are to attempt misdirection or to use 'Mcbride' smear tactics. As another poster has already mentioned we all know that you are the anti-Israeli blogger 'Xie Ming'.
And now I know you are back under this latest alias, I will ensure that your revolting world views are flagged as soon as you post them.
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Rustigjongens,
It's the seventh or eighth Xie Ming pseudonym that I know of. The one before this latest one was 'Luosquery'. I busted him here:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/worldtonight/2009/03/a_new_start_in_afghanistan.html#P78091833
I guess he keeps on getting banned and keeps on bouncing back. I don't know many people who would return to a place they'd been kicked out of. Evidently his obsessive Israel-bashing trumps his self-respect.
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Wow, Rustigjongens & TrueToo are like the Famous Five or something, patrolling our BBC blogs looking for bad sorts and handing them over to the police.
I've obviously not followed Mr/Mrs Mings comments or style closely, but what makes you so sure that Mr/Mrs Clast is the same person - and what makes his/her comments anti-Israel?
Marcy, you'll be pleased to know I found your deeply hurtful insult about my eyes. Your reason for calling me crosseyes appears to be that I have cross eyes! Haha, how imaginative. Only I don't. The geraniums really did have more to offer than yoo do.
Lets try and be more original eh? For instance did you know that anagrams of your own name include "Racism Usual Rue", "Urea Rails Mucus" and "Aural Scum Ruse I"?
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crosseyes, they don't come thicker or denser than you are. It's not because of your crossed eyes....it's because you are cross iiiiiiiiiiiiiii. This is your left foot, this is your right foot. Now repeat after me; left foot, right foot, left foot, right foot. Next week your lesson will be five little piggies. When we're done, you'll know how to count the fingers on one of your hands. Don't ask me which one. Presumably you have two of them also. Can you figure out which is the left one and which is the right one by then without getting help from your mother?
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dumber and dumberer
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Yes crosseyes and you never seem to reach the bottom. I wouldn't brag about it if I were you. Have you been practicing? Left foot, right foot, left foot, right foot. That's it. Even my dog got it more easily than this. I think if I had a canary..... Now just keep practicing saying it over and over again until you get it so fixed in your memory it won't go away.
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I promise I'll learn how to walk just as soon as you learn how to make a valid point, and defend it when challenged. The other condition is that you also have to develop a sense of humour that is more advanced than your dog's (or canary etc).
Once these conditions have been met, and I've completed the next triathlon, I'll make a start on the walking.
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21. paulcrossleyiii,
Since you seem to be genuinely interested in the Ming question, have a look at this thread:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/worldtonight/2009/03/a_new_start_in_afghanistan.html#P78091833
Here's what I said in comment 71 on that thread:
I see Xie_Ming is back in his latest incarnation as luosquery. Same wooden, robotic style, same inability to communicate directly using names, instead referring to numbered comments, same bias. I was thinking this was a more restrained, less venomous Ming until I saw no. 32.
To that I should add that he frequently employs the tactic of appealing to the moderators to take action against a contributor when he is in fact one of the worst offenders when it comes to abuse.
I have "debated" Xie Ming at length on this blog and elsewhere, beginning about a year ago. I could identify him blindfold, since he sticks out like a sore thumb. You will never find Ming commenting at the same time as LesMajesty, AlSearcher, Luosquery and this latest coololdiconoclast, since they are the same person, operating, no doubt, from the same computer. Xie Ming even had the gall once to copy and paste something he'd written as an almost certainly banned older personality to a newer one on the same thread.
Ming is a relentless and venomous anti-Israel copy-and-paste propaganda machine, spreading half-truths, lies and disinformation. This needs to be exposed and fought. If you can be bothered, follow the thread from the above link and you will notice that after I bust him at no. 71, he threw off his transparent and flimsy disguise and reverted to standard Ming, trying to get the moderators to remove every comment he didn't like.
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26, True, So you've identified him from style alone? The content above doesn't seem too anti Israel.
I guess it would be like MAII trying to assume a new identity and then spouting his same boring old anecdotes and euro hating rubbish.
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No, not style alone, though it's a piece of cake to identify his style. There is nobody else on these BBC blogs who writes in such a robotic, uncommunicative fashion with an apparent iron rule never to address anyone by name and the frequent rhetorical flourish.
I look at content and tactics too.
Did you read his comment 32 from my link? It doesn't get much more anti-Israel than that.
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Yep, that was pretty strongly against Israel, but that was luosquery.
Anyhow, the fact that Mr Clast hasn't objected might mean you've correctly de-masked him.
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Huh? Ming is Luosquery.
He never objects when I expose him. He knows he doesn't have a leg to stand on.
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crosseyes;
"I promise I'll learn how to walk just as soon as you learn how to make a valid point,"
I think you just made it for me...with another of your admissions of your own limitations.
It's small wonder you haven't learned to walk yet. The first thing you have to do before you can walk is to get your feet out of your mouth, both of them. Until you do that, left-right-left-right won't help you a bit.
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TrueTrue, Xie Ming is a shape shifting Canadian. Like any other cockroach, he can squeeze himself through any crack in a wall or door no matter how small or what shape it is. That's what you can do when you are an invertebrate with no spine, no bones, just a jellyfish. Even dead, their stingers are poisonous. If he is discovered under one name, he just registers under another. Bug spray, that's the only answer. Try to find his nest and spray away. Same with pirates and terrorists.
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32. MarcusAureliusII,
I usually steer away from Internet jargon, but LOL to that.
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