Why did they do it?
If it's true, as the Indian authorities are alleging, that the Mumbai attackers came from Pakistan, the next question we have to ask is: Why?
To advance the cause of India's 150 million Muslims? I doubt it. To further the jihadi agenda? It doesn't seem likely in a country that is overwhelmingly Hindu.
Steve Coll has an intriguing theory on the New Yorker blog here. Could it be that the attacks were an attempt to ratchet up tensions between Pakistan and India (they've done that, for sure) so that Pakistani army units are withdrawn from the border region with Afghanistan, where they're in action against the Pakistani and Afghan Taliban, to be redeployed along the border with India? It would certainly be to the benefit of the jihadis if that's what happens.
Gideon Rachman in the Financial Times is thinking along similar lines. He writes: "A confrontation with India would ... strengthen all the most sinister forces in Pakistan - the Islamists and the elements in the security establishment that back them."
And on our programme last night, the Pakistani writer and analyst Ahmed Rashid warned of the danger that India's response to the Mumbai attacks will force the still-weak civilian government under President Asif Ali Zardari to accede to the more hawkish elements in the Pakistani military who may not yet be convinced by his attempts to put relations with India on a new footing. (You can hear him via Listen Again on the website.)
(UPDATE: More from Ahmed Rashid here.)
The Indian Foreign Minister Pranab Mukherjee said this morning that India is not considering a "military option" against Pakistan in response to the attacks. It remains to be seen if that calms things down a bit. What do you think?
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Robin,
This is certainly a possibility. If if it is true however, it might back-fire. Because of the pressure India is now putting on Pakistan, coupled with the unremitting pressure from the USA, the Pakistani government might decide that it will be cheaper and easier to really turn on to the millitants, than to risk a military confrontation with India. And then instead of diminishing the government's resolve to fight them, the Taliban might end up with having really to fight for their survival.
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Does Pakistan know more about Pakistani politics than do we or Washington?
India also has the spectre of the fascist BJP waiting in the wings to take over the government.
Pakistan not only has a large fundamentalist Islamist faction (How large?), but also a portion of their military intelligence supporting the radical Islamists (How many?).
My suggestion would be to work on developing facts about BJP sentiment and Pakistani fundamentalists and military intelligence.
Avoid thinking that one must or should adopt an editorial stance rather than developing facts.
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Chess is a game based on war and politics. The success in chess depends on accurately guessing the opponent?s next move. Sometimes military and political moves in real life are very reminiscent of a game of chess.
For example I will take you back to a seemingly unimportant event in September 2001. On September 9, 2001, two days prior to al-Qaeda's September 11 attacks, Ahmad Shah Massoud was assassinated in Afghanistan by suspected al-Qaeda agents. Massoud was the most pro-Western and popular of the anti-Soviet resistance leaders and was the head of anti-Taliban Northern alliance. Al- Qaeda knew that after 9/11 America would attack Afghanistan and join hands with Northern Alliance. Massoud as post-Taliban head of Afghanistan would be quite likely to succeed. So, Taliban got rid of him.
Now I would you like to think of a recent tragic event that happened on 26th of November. The terrorist attack in Mumbai was not just a random attack but rather a part of much thought out plan. It is true that the terrorists and their masters are so full morbid jealousy and hate for India that they do not really need additional reasons to attack Taj, Oberai and Nariman point which represent India?s glory, economic success, its culture of hospitality, its friendship to one and all including Jews who received welcome and shelter in India from medieval ages. I am sure terrorists must have enjoyed killing all the innocent people and really believed that their act would be rewarded by a confirmed seat in Heaven!
However, the people who indoctrinated, trained and sent these terrorists know better and have just sacrificed them as pawns as a part of much larger game. They had hoped that India would go to war or at least send its forces to the eastern border of Pakistan. That would provide Pakistan an excuse to withdraw its army from the western border where it is supposedly, helping US and NATO forces so that Taleban could inflict larger damage to allies before the new US administration takes over and the planned massive US surge could happen. When India did not walk into their trap they have started to whip up hysteria of imminent Indian attack and have started to deployment along the eastern border hoping to entice India by their second move. You only have to watch any Pakistani TV channel to see what I mean. They are just taking of war and how bravely their army has always fought against India particularly in 1971.
Zardari, the Pakistan president blamed ?non-state actors? for the Mumbai attack. In reality, these are ?state in a state actors? consisting of Pakistan army, ISI and their creation Taliban. It is proven beyond doubt for any sensible person that Pakistan is full of ticking bombs. If Pakistan can not or will do something about it is there any choice for the international community other than to carry out a controlled explosion!
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