The Lustig US election survival guide: the Conventions
I'm sorry to have to be the one to tell you this - but it's finally time to take the US presidential election campaign seriously.
It's eleven weeks since the last update in this series of survival guides: the Democrats are now gathering in Denver to anoint Barack Obama and Joe Biden as their candidates; the Republicans will convene in a week's time - and then the campaigning will start for real.
So here are answers to five frequently asked questions:
1. Do we really have to take any notice of the conventions? Er, yes, probably we do. Admittedly, they are mainly hot air, noise and balloons; as long ago as 1924, the journalist H.L. Mencken described them as "vulgar, ugly, stupid, [and] tedious". But there's a good piece here which explains why they do matter. The Democratic party strategist Mark Penn says: "The party that wins the battle of the conventions will likely win the election."
2. So what's going to be the big deal in Denver? Where do I start? Speeches from both Bill and Hillary Clinton ought to be worth hearing (and keep an eye on the die-hard Hillary enthusiasts when her candidacy is put to a vote) ; the newly-named vice-presidential candidate Joe Biden will have a chance to start stirring things up a bit (he has a reputation as much more of a political bruiser than Obama); and then of course, the Big One: Obama himself on Thursday, the 45th anniversary of Martin Luther King's "I have a dream" speech.
3. Why did Obama go for a veteran white male Washington insider like Joe Biden, when he's been insisting for the past year or more that he represents a chance to change the way politics are conducted? Some possible answers in this excellent piece from Politico.com.
4. By the way, what's John McCain up to? Doing rather well, I reckon. His attack ads seem to be having an impact; the Obama campaign has been forced on the defensive. And he plans to announce his choice for vice-presidential nominee on Friday, carefully timed to knock the Obama acceptance speech out of the headlines. (Mind you, not being able to remember how many homes he owns was not exactly his greatest campaign moment.)
5. So who's going to win in November? Well, I said back in early May that I thought it'd be Obama. But I'll be honest with you: I'm not as confident now as I was then. The latest polls show him pretty much neck and neck with McCain - the latest aggregate poll from RealClearPolitics.com shows him with a statistically insignificant 1.7 per cent lead. Why isn't he further ahead, given how unpopular President Bush and the Republicans are? Could it be (whisper) because he's black? Paul Harris writes in The Observer: "When Obama speaks on Thursday to more than 80,000 people in Denver's football stadium he will also reach a television audience of millions of Americans. They will look into the face of a man who could be their next President and for the first time it will be a black face." Or could it be that to many voters, he just looks too young, too inexperienced, and too pleased with himself?
If I have one piece of advice for him, it's to get rid of those crisp white lawyer shirts and start trying to look more like a regular guy.
© MMIX~RS~q~RS~~RS~z~RS~38~RS~)
Comments
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Obama is a fast Eddie who would throw you under a truck for votes, a vote for McCain would result in more death, their knowledge of the Middle East is lamentable.
The only sport to be had is for hacks to ask the hard questions to see how each these candidate manages to avoid them.
Link
http://www.truthdig.com/report/item/20080820_cheney_bush_and_habbush
There are other candidates: Cynthia McKinney for the Green Party and Ralph Nader as an Independent both have more to say than either of the above.
Democracy Now are doing 2 hour coverage of both conventions f or everyday.
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Personally I don't think race explains the recent swing in the polls. Those people have entrenched views and wouldn't sway. I suggest the possibility of an American-Russian confrontation explains the recent shift towards the republicans.
McCain's inability or reluctance to answer the house question will have a significant effect. It's often this type of minor incident which forms opinion rather than policies.
The other interesting development is the 'Hilary Clinton movement' who are threatening to boycott Obama, and may lead to a party split.
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Just because the language of (a minority of?) Americans is a form of English we have to be given coverage of the party conventions.
Why? I guess it is because that historically they were the last 'Super Power' (note the use of the past tense!) and that the coverage is inexpensive television and radio. It is a spectator sport for the rest of the World. We have no say in who wins and can only take appropriate precautions - (Duck and Cover!!!)
Luckily the USA is running out of money and political will (body bags) to do real damage. We must remember that most of their foreign policy is about refusing to reduce their dependence at home on oil. So long as we keep that in mind we will understand both (main) parties.
However I would like to hear of the 'third' parties - just to give us a little hope for US action on climate change within the next fifty years - although I will not hold me breath!
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I have a strange sense of deja vu about the Democrat Convention. It could be a subconscious thing about Biden parroting Kinnock of course but all this talk of a Hilary backlash and and Obama's lead being cat back to zero but It's all begining to feel a bit like Sheffield '92 to me. How to blow an election at a single event.
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"Why isn't he further ahead, given how unpopular President Bush and the Republicans are? Could it be (whisper) because he's black?"
How about because he is an inexperienced incompetent who never accomplished anything in government he can point to that would qualify him and that if he were white, he'd never have gotten a second look from anyone.
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#5
Far as I can tell, he has accomplished more good than G.W. cowboy ever has for government without the presidency. He's not the first black man to run, and I don't recall Jesse Jackson getting a second look.
I don't know about anyone else ... but I myself am really tired of geriatric leaders. I surely do not wish to see a 76 year old man take office. You know, when you think about major fields of work, study, or research, to my knowledge, there has never been any breakthrough/major advancements by anyone over the age of 50. The majority of "big ideas" and what not come during the ages of 20-30, and some trickle in around 40. Bill Gates should step aside at Microsoft and hire a 70 year old to run it for him.
Our world is not what it used to be, when wise old men could lead and lead well. Things back in times gone by ... moved slower with less parts, and seemed to keep a slower tempo in general. Today's world is changing everyday. Again, I don't know about anyone else ... but the majority of people I have come across in my life that are over 60, well they are pretty set in stone with what they think, believe, and act on. I wouldn't exactly call them quick on the draw either, well maybe if you struck a nerve with them. I'm tired of old ideas, they don't work, can we try something new?
What I think is most important about Obama, more so than anything else, is this whimsy idea of change. People like to down talk it but, guess what? The simple idea of change is a very powerful thing. Not his idea, but the masses of people that see him representing that. I think, if there were ever a time for real change to ever get off the ground in the States, it would come with Obama. Not because it is his gift, but because people believe it. Not to mention, the simple fact of him getting elected, would really signify ... possibly ... (wishful thinking) we as people might be ready to start advancing our humanity, and not our bank accounts, level of audio clarity, or pixels of resolution.
---------------
The Stupid American
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Ted Kennedy did do the unheard of in the Convention- he mentioned an issue! It was universal health care!.
Now, help me with this: should each of the following be paid from personal funds or from the general tax revenues:
a) police service.
b) fire service.
c) public education.
d) medical service.
If one is to be excluded, through what rationale?
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Xie_Ming
Good point well made.
e) armed service
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The only time the Democrats bring up their siren song issue of universal health care is when they are running for office. When they controlled both the Congress and the Presidency, the only thing they came up with was HRC's incompetent health alliance plan. It was rejected because it was badly flawed. You never heard Clinton talk about it again. BTW, they also don't bring up fixing social security except when they are running for office either.
Pharbin77, the reason older people don't shoot from the hip is that they actually reflect on life experience and think before they speak. That process takes a little time, maybe a few seconds or more. All Obama knows is his well rehearsed rhetoric. Once he gets away from that, he's lost. Change for change sake is plain stupid. Ever hear of out of the frying pan and into the fire? That's also change. If Obama is elected, it will probably be a disaster for America and the world. He's far too incompetent due to lack of experience and the perspective it brings. He is not qualified. Joe Biden and Hillary Clinton said so during the primaries. Were they lying then or are they lying now?
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Speaking of qualifications-
What system twice selected GWB?
Compare a known liability and serious risk-
with a success story.
Really, no choice.
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Xie_Ming #10
"Really, no choice."
Well the first time there was Gore and the second time there was Kerry.
Hmmm, you're right, there really was no choice.
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Yes, I liked both Clintons speeches at the Denver convention. But I did not think that Bill Clinton showed us the best of what he is capable of delivering. At the least they did not prolong the dispute over the primary election outcome for the sake of unity in the party. My impression was that Al Gore's speech delivered in his trademark crisp hard hitting style on the last night was the best I heard. Obama did well with a speech pointed directly at the differences between the Democrats and Republicans and John McCain. It seems unlikely to me that the Republicans can put on the same combination of pizzaz and political fireworks in Minneapolis-
St Paul as the Democratic convention in Denver.
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#9
he's focused or at least he seems to be focused on what America needs, to wake up. I don't know where you come from, but where I live GW bush was the one that jumped into the fire. The Islamic world, and the world in general hated Americans enough as it were before Iraq. Ever here of ... if you're playing with fire, you'll get burned? Maybe Obama will jump out of the fire we are already in. Maybe he will not play with it.
Maybe he wont INVADE another country on the basis of business opportunity and call it spreading freedom or democracy.
If Obama focuses on "we the people" and leaves his cabinet to focus on world affairs, so what? Why do we have to be so involved in world affairs? Why can't the eastern hemispheres do more for themselves. They don't like our help unless ... there's an army taking over countries, and who has that role now ... oh, our army.
It's not change for change sake, you would think that someone such as yourself that likes to play the part of someone with half a brain, would recognize that. Everything in this country is beginning to fail, not just the Economy. If it would be linked to one thing, that would be it's core, that would be "we the people."
We need to become inspired again. We need to become passionate again. We need to become compassionate again. And we need to do these things for nobody else other than ourselves. If you don't see the potential Obama has for that, to inspire people, and don't even think it's needed ... I think you're a fool.
"America, our work will not be easy. The challenges we face require tough choices, and Democrats as well as Republicans will need to cast off the worn-out ideas and politics of the past. For part of what has been lost these past eight years can't just be measured by lost wages or bigger trade deficits. What has also been lost is our sense of common purpose - our sense of higher purpose. And that's what we have to restore."
_____________
The Stupid American.
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