The Lustig US election survival guide: update
Five months ago yesterday, a young, relatively unknown junior senator from Illinois called Barack Obama won the Iowa Democratic party caucus. The former First Lady Hillary Clinton came third.
Five months from today, US voters will choose their next President. In other words, we are now exactly half way through what's turning out to be an extraordinarily gripping 2008 US election cycle.
Four years ago, I was in Boston, when that same Barack Obama spoke at the Democratic Party convention and referred to himself as "a skinny kid with a funny name who believes that America has a place for him, too." I doubt that he believed then that the place for him might be in the White House.
But now even the Wall Street Journal, not normally enamoured of Democratic party presidential candidates, refers to him in the same breath as what it calls America's two foremost cultural icons, Tiger Woods and Oprah Winfrey.
So here's what you need to keep an eye on over the coming weeks and months.
1. Hillary Clinton: will she throw her full support behind Obama? (My guess is Yes.) Will he appoint her as his vice-presidential running mate? (My guess is No.) Will some of her campaign strategists and fund-raisers now join his team, and if they do, will that cause tensions? (Yes, and Yes.)
2. John McCain: will the spotlight now shine on him, having left him pretty much in the shadows during the Obama-Clinton slugfest? (Yes.) Will he start attacking Obama as an inexperienced liberal elitist, out of touch with mainstream America? (Is the Pope Catholic?)
3. The rumour mill: Watch the bloggers. Some will peddle rumours, which may or may not be true, but which will be designed to derail campaigns and damage candidates' reputations. It'll work both ways, and it'll be nasty. Both sides are already whispering that there's "stuff" waiting to come out. Ignore them until they either put up or shut up.
4. The debates: no US Presidential campaign is complete without televised debates. Obama has already done countless ones with Hillary Clinton, in some of which he didn't do terribly well. McCain has done fewer, and is a far less impressive public speaker. Does it matter? (Yes.)
5. The wives: The media seem to think that both Michelle Obama and Cindy McCain will provide good stories. Mrs Obama had a tough childhood on the South side of Chicago; Mrs McCain was born into a wealthy family in Arizona. There's plenty of scope for pot-stirring.
But maybe you're not as enthralled by all this as I am. (After all, it's only the leadership of the most economically and militarily dominant power on earth that's at stake.) In which case, take a break ... and I'll bring you up to date at the end of August, when Senator Obama, the first black candidate to be nominated for the US Presidency by a major political party, will address the Democratic party convention. Given his past record as a speech-maker, you won't want to miss it.
© MMIX~RS~q~RS~~RS~z~RS~49~RS~)
Comments
Sign in or register to comment.
Obama would be an idiot if he appointed her as his running mate. She has to be the most hated woman in America.
Complain about this comment
Is US election survival really dependent on doing what IPAC (the Israel lobby) wants?
This becomes acute in the case of Iran-
a potential strategic ally
or a victim of more Bush-style aggression and consequent anti-Americanism?
Recent issues of the Christian Science Monitor are to be consulted on this!
Complain about this comment
Hi Xie_Ming,
Difficult to say to be honest! :) AIPAC undoubtedly have a huge influence but I don't think the USA would pour billions into Israel if they didn't have an interest in keeping the Israeli State going.
Complain about this comment
Running Mates v. Mates
I suspect the former will be more important than the latter when open-minded voters come to choose.
John McCain's age and health will certainly be a factor so he'll need a younger safe pair of hands.
Barack Obama will need a vice-presidential candidate who can appeal to Hillary Rodham Clinton's constituency, in particular to blue-collared workers and older women, without alienating his own natural supporters.
Complain about this comment
RE: 3
Israel is a source of intelligence concerning Arab activities, etc.
However, as a real ally, a liberalized Iran would be a massive strategic coup.
Threat and bluster works directly against this and strengthens the Islamic radicals.
Can our journalists not start to ask questions "outside the box"?
Complain about this comment
Obama like all US politicians have to address AIPAC and the evangelical Christian nutcases or else they won’t get the votes needed to win.
Obama’s AIPAC speech supported Israel as a Jewish state, which would mean that if he was a citizen of Israel he wouldn’t stand a snowballs chance in hell of being president, he also fully supported the whole of Jerusalem being within the state of Israel, not even that idiot Abbas would agree to that.
UN resolutions, international legal judgments mean nothing, this policy that will never be accepted by Israel’s neighbors.
Survival guide, from what? The only survival guide I know is an independent documentary called "Spin" by Brain Springer.
Complain about this comment
RE #6 This URL would be applicable:
http://zope.gush-shalom.org/home/en/channels/avnery/1212871846/
_____________________
NEWSHOUR's Owen Bennet-Jones
made a great effort to distinguish the foreign policies of McCain and Obama.
I wonder whether the BBC has any sources within Iran capable of assessing the receptiveness of the population to cultural and commercial overtures from the West?
Complain about this comment
The BBC, on Feb 19, 2008 had a special documentary on "INSIDE IRAN".
The POV and PM blogs now seem to feel that Iran is "off-topic" or otherwise not to be discussed.
Perhaps listeners are only to comment about what a "threat" Iran is, rather than to examine its potential as a strategic ally?
Complain about this comment
What does post-racial mean if not 'now you're white'? Obama is an accomplished orator, but he's a bit 'Beyonce Knowles' - as black as the Man can stomach.
Am I too cynical? The USA's first black President (William Jefferson Clinton) could always be 'excused' by the fact he was, er, white. His faults were therefore black,
his redemption white.
If Obama wins and then fails (or is a mediocre Chief), will we blame his white inheritance?
Our liberal dream is conveniently open-ended.
Complain about this comment
As a US Citizen, the Elections are meaningless as long as the USA uses tactics to exclude alternative parties such as the Libertarians and Greens from the political process.
Complain about this comment
View these comments in RSS