And the next US President will be ...
If you've read anything at all following the Democratic party primaries in Indiana and North Carolina, you will know that the universal consensus among the punditocracy is that Barack Obama is now all but assured of his party's nomination.
But if you've been paying close attention to my occasional US Election Survival Guides, you may just recall that way back in February - which by the standards of this year's campaign, is equivalent to when dinosaurs roamed the earth - I predicted that the Democrats would win the presidential election in November.
So, if I'm going to stick to my guns, that must mean that I now expect Senator Obama to be the next President of the United States.
Do I?
Yes.
Here's why (and I confess my reasons have as much to do with my finely-honed political instincts as with any detailed numbers-based analysis):
1. The Iraq situation is not good, and may well be worse by November. That is not good news for Senator John McCain (nor for the Iraqis, of course), who has consistently backed the Bush administration's strategy.
2. After eight years with a Republican in the White House, I have a strong feeling that many American voters are ready for a change. That's not an easy sell for a 71-year-old Republican.
3. The Obama campaign has raised huge amounts of cash - and just as important, has acquired an enviable data-base of supporters, activists and voters. That will be invaluable as the election approaches.
4. Despite the internal divisions that inevitably emerged during the interminable Obama-Clinton primaries slug-fest, there is a grass-roots enthusiasm for Obama which McCain will find it hard to match.
5. Obama has improved immeasurably as a candidate over the past six months; McCain has had little to do since February. If they were boxers, you'd say Obama had simply done a lot more training.
6. And, oh happy coincidence, if, as everyone expects, Barack Obama does win the nomination, he will deliver his acceptance speech at the party convention in Denver on 28 August. Which just happens to be the 45th anniversary of Martin Luther King's "I have a dream" speech. Watch this space ...
And if you really want some numbers, of the last six published opinion polls, four suggest that Obama would beat McCain in November, although admittedly all but one of them showed his lead as being within the margin of error. (Five out of the six showed that Clinton would beat McCain too, but again, all within the margin of error. And as per above, a Clinton-McCain fight is now looking increasingly academic.)
© MMIX~RS~q~RS~~RS~z~RS~50~RS~)
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Your show's great, but your tagline (Trying to make sense of the world) is a complete no-brainer. You really have to change it!
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robin,
i don't want to take a predictions
on who is going to be president
of the united states of america
in the november 2008 elections.
since my previous predictions
were wrong!
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So you're a betting man , Robin .
Let me put a fiver on McCain for you to cut your losses .
If you think McCain will lack for backers when it becomes a straight fight , think again . Liberal America may be in love with Obama but other interests ( defence , oil etc ) will not be slow to back the more dependable candidate .
We've already seen the turmoil that one instance of racial politicking breaking through could cause to Obama . And if you think that only Hillary Clinton would stoop to dirty tricks in the election battle you may be disappointed .
And just how broad is Obama's appeal outside his heartlands ? Again Clinton has shown how patchy it is .
And Iraq as an election decider ? What did Bill used to say ? " It's the economy , stupid ! "
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May predictions are getting updated:
Republican: John McCain
Democrat: Barrack Obama
[who will win?]
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I don't agree with your analysis
1. While it is true McCain backed the war, he did not back the way it was being fought. He pushed for the surge which took a long time to be tried and proved to have some benefical effect when it was.
2. Some people may want change but the question then is change to what. Change as a slogan means nothing until Obama talks specifically about what he would change and how. So far his campaign is mostly slogans. He's been preaching to the choir.
3. McCain will amass a huge war chest too. I think the last time, Bush had about 200 million dollars, maybe more.
4. Lots of people had grass roots support and lost. Some supporters become disillusioined, some don't bother to vote, and then there are the people on the other side who have not been so vocal. Many Democrats likely will not admit that they will not vote for Obama because they are afraid of being called racists. And some are.
5. Some observers say Obama is exhausted and off his game. Both candidates will be well rested and ready for battle when the time comes.
6. The media pundits will make a big deal of the coincidence of the date of the speeches and then it will be forgotten when they get down to the issues.
Look for lots of dirty tricks on both sides. Each will try to paint the other as rogues. The supporters of each will resort to anything. Few talk about it but Obama's physical security will also be a concern.
At this point it is very premature to say who will win in November. That's a lifetime away by American political standards.
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