Archives for September 2010

Wild Weather of the West: BBC One, Mon. 20 Sept. 7.30pm

Ian Fergusson | 12:48 UK time, Friday, 17 September 2010

 

Formula One Weather Forecast: Italian Grand Prix 2010

Ian Fergusson | 15:50 UK time, Wednesday, 8 September 2010

Monza, 10 - 12 September 2010 (Round 14)

(This forecast will be regularly updated. This entry: Friday 10 September, 06:20hrs BST)

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Forecast Summary:

(PPN = Precipitation)

Emphasis: A dry & fine spell of settled weather expected across all three days. 

Friday: Sunny and fine with some scattered convective cloud development. Chance of PPN <5%. Max 23C. Wind light & variable, predominantly SW.

Saturday: Dry, sunny and settled. Max 23C. Wind light S-SSE.

Sunday: Continuing sunny, dry and fine; some convective cloud development PM. Max 23C. Wind light, variable, predominantly SSW. 

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Synopsis & Forecast Evolution:

I returned from holiday very early this morning and immediately settled on the sofa to watch the Belgium Grand Prix, having successfuly avoided all newsmedia and potential 'spoilers' whilst away! It was quite a strange experience, watching recordings of qualifying and race 'as live', hoping the forecast updates I'd been giving while abroad via Twitter proved correct. As it transpired, the Spa weather proved much as expected... and what a fantastic race it was!

After those varied 'banana skins' of Ardennes weather, it's a very different forecast prospect for this next event in Monza. We're now into the driest month of the year, in terms of average conditions for Milan and environs

I've been catching-up with the model output and the general consensus and continuity between the main operational centres looks pretty decent this time - all of it leaning strongly in favour of a dry and settled spell between Friday and Sunday.

In broadscale terms, an upper trough and vortex will provide periodically inclement conditions into Thursday, with attendant showers across parts of northern Italy likely to then ease away southwards and eastwards overnight, long before Friday's action gets underway.

Friday itself is a day of transition to fine conditions; the influence of the upper trough relaxing; surface pressure rising and the risk of further showers greatly reduced. It should prove a dry and fine day for FP1 & 2, with just a very small % chance of isolated showers as the residual of upper forcing slips away eastwards from northern Italy into the Adriatic.

Into the weekend, ridge conditions continue developing from the west and indeed more broadly to the east as well. It's partly courtesy of an extension of the Azores High, which will become a dominant feature by Sunday across western Europe, with a high cell also located towards Russia. 

Both Saturday and Sunday thus look dry, fine and settled with plenty of sunshine. Some fair-weather cloud and convective infill will tend to develop by the afternoon perhaps, more especially so later on Sunday. A dry race therefore, with ambient temperature inthe low to mid 20's C bracket and light winds.

The run-to-run continuity from ECMWF, UKMO and GFS is very good, so forecast confidence remains high for dry running to prevail during all practice sessions, qualifying and race. I'll keep you updated on any change of emphasis.  

 

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