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Formula One Weather Forecast: British Grand Prix 2010

Ian Fergusson | 19:24 UK time, Monday, 5 July 2010

Silverstone, 9-11 July 2010 (Round 10)

(This forecast will be regularly updated. This entry: Sunday 11 July, 09:00hrs BST)

Quick Links:

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Nowcast Updates:

Sunday, 0900BST: The forecast evolution from the Met Office has proven very accurate, with the weakening cold front easing across Silverstone between 7 and 8am this morning. Rainfall radar suggested some isolated areas of light showery rain in places around the circuit towards 7.45am. These, along with the frontal boundary cloud, have now passed SE and the skies continue to clear, with warm sunshine but a fresher feel compared to yesterday. Today's temperatures will be towards the mid-20's; it will now remain dry for the rest of the day and again somewhat breezy later.

Forecast Headlines:

(PPN = Precipitation)

Changes of Emphasis: None significant:

Friday: Early high cloud but turning sunny; chance of PPN <5%.  V. warm. Max 27C. Wind moderate SSW. Warm overnight.

Saturday: Sunny start, but with high and mid-level cloud continuing to spill gradually east through the day to make hazier sunshine. With more convective infill too, it'll be a cloudier story compared to Friday. Staying dry, with chance of PPN 5%.  V warm. Max 27C. Breezy at times. Wind SSW. Warm overnight.

Sunday: Band of cloudier weather easing SE through the early to mid-morning, with isolated patches of light rain possible. Sunny spells then developing progressively and continuing into the afternoon for the race, which should be dry and fine; turning cloudier again late afternoon. Chance of PPN 20%. Max 25C. Breezy at times. Wind light-moderate W. 

NB: Monday - for those leaving later - will turn wet across Silverstone through the morning.

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British-grandprix-mark-thom.jpg

The 2010 British Grand Prix will enjoy a good deal of very warm weather, albeit turning rather cloudy at times. Current expectations are for dry, sunny and warm conditions during qualifying and the race (Photo: Mark Thompson / Getty Images)

Synopsis and Forecast Emphasis:

Being back in the geographical 'comfort zone' for this home Grand Prix forecast doesn't necessarily make my job any easier, but at least I've got a suite of detailed UK Met Office predictive products at hand for this one... plus their ever-helpful Chief Forecaster at the end of a 'phone!

One dominant thrust of the forecast will see rising temperatures across southern and especially southeast / eastern-central England later this week. Friday and Saturday will see the highest temperatures; it'll certainly be a warm event throughout, with some strong sunshine on Friday and Saturday especially.

In broadscale terms, the British Isles sees something of a NW to SE split developing later this week, with areas further south and east across England remaining largely dry and warm; perhaps even hot in parts of the SE especially.

British-grandprix-fred-dufo.jpgBy the weekend, low pressure will be skirting up from the Atlantic to the NW of the British Isles and high pressure sitting across Denmark and Holland. The localised detail for Sunday, particularly in terms of shower potential, remains subject to flux but confidence in the broad thrust of the forecast is looking pretty good, with model continuity improving.

Friday will be dry, fine, very warm and humid for Free Practice 1 and 2, with strong sunshine developing and patchy fair-weather cloud.

It's a repeat story on Saturday for Free Practice 3 and Qualifying: a glorious morning, albeit with increasing amounts of high and mid-level cloud spreading slowly across Silverstone through the mid-afternoon. Moderately breezy at times; possibly a factor for qualifying, tending to unsettle the cars in various parts of the circuit.

Into the weekend, a trailing cold front will be draped SW-NE across the west of the British Isles. With a series of minor wave-like disturbances running up it, the front will tend to shift positioning, as will any attendant risk of showers or rain. It'll remain across W/NW areas of England during Saturday before slowly edging further SE during Sunday morning, bringing more cloud and offering a small chance a light shower across Silverstone around mid-morning. 

The slow, southeastwards creep of this trailing cold front has been consistently signalled in recent output from the UKMO Global Model. The latest (Sat. PM) detailed forecast assessment prepared by the Met Office's Chief Forecaster offers an essentially dry and fine story for Sunday, particularly the race window itself. Albeit an isolated light shower could develop around parts of Bucks and Northants through the first half of the day, as the fragmenting frontal boundary lingers close to Silverstone and temperatures rise, it is considered a low point probability. Once the front clear south, skies will then brighten-up by race start, to offer increasing amounts of dry and sunny weather into the early to mid afternoon.

It'll certainly prove another very warm day, but a tad cooler than the previous two, as the very warm air across eastern/SE England gets squeezed away back towards the near continent. It'll again prove rather breezy at times.

 

Comments

  • Comment number 1.

    Ian:

    Thanks, for giving us the starters' preview of the B.G.P. 2010....

    ~Dennis Junior~

  • Comment number 2.

    Thanks Dennis Junior: I've no doubt it'll be a corker of a race, whatever the weather! Best, Ian

  • Comment number 3.

    Strange that I've only been able to find this page this morning, but oh well. Not sure whether I want a bit of rain during the on track action this weekend, but maybe that's because I want to see how the new Arena section does on raceday in dry conditions. Either way, seems like it ought to be warm, which is no bad thing (surprised it's been so warm for so long in all honesty, it's never 20+ degrees for week after week after week).

  • Comment number 4.

    Hi Stevvy - the blog has been active since Monday but we only added the link on the BBC F1 homepage this morning. My journalistic colleagues have been rather hectic with online stuff tis week, so apologies for the late link! Our current expectations offers a smallish threat of PM showers on Saturday but more especially overnight into early Sunday as the weakening cold front heads SE. Still time for the frontal progression to shift in terms of timing and emphasis, of course... but for now, it's looking dry for the track action albeit maybe a somewhat 'greener' track left for Sunday's daybreak. I'm just awaiting a new run from the UKMO-GM and assessment of this from the medium range forecasters down at the HQ in Exeter. I'll keep you posted! Cheers, Ian

  • Comment number 5.

    Thanks again Ian, let's hope for a cracking race.

    For all you stat's nerds (and I include myself in that group :D ), here are all the driver and team related statistics for Silverstone.

    http://www.cliptheapex.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=7&t=1817

    Can the British boys make it another 1-2, their 4th of the season?

  • Comment number 6.

    Ever been to a Grand Prix, Ian?

    Thanks for your forecasts. I'm going on Sunday and I'm in the uncovered Stowe grandstand so dry is preferable!

  • Comment number 7.

    Ooh, risk of rain on Sunday increasing... ;)

    Ian, what's the chances of the Sunday morning showers essentially 'pushing themselves back' into early afternoon so we could be left with a very interesting race? :D

    Seems to be more uncertain than where we were at earlier this week.

  • Comment number 8.

    Looks like it ought to be dry all weekend after all then.

 

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