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Very, very squally tonight...

Ian Fergusson | 20:33 UK time, Tuesday, 24 November 2009

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Our cats are huddled together. All three of them. And it's weird.

Indeed, I've never seen them like this. They're normally somewhat sociable, but never nestled together quite like this. It's almost as if they've adopted a defensive huddle in anticipation of an unseen threat.

As I write, I can hear ominous crashing and banging outside as the wind howls; perhaps a fence coming down nearby. It's a sound I've grown accustomed to lately: I spent an hour yesterday repairing one in rather makeshift fashion, albeit all-too-aware that any longevity of this patched-up structure against winds gusting over 50 mph is unlikely.

And tonight, I'm expecting the worse.

We have a very active cold front - an ANA-front to give it the correct terminology - crossing eastwards. It will come through our region between about 11pm to 2am, accompanied by some very squally winds; heavy rain and perhaps a small tornado or two. It's a ripe scenario for the latter, as I mentioned on Points West and local radio this morning. 

radar_241109_2100hr.jpg

Met Office rainfall radar at 9pm on Tues, 24 November, 2009. Note the bright, linear echoes across Wales and into the approaches of the Bristol Channel. These line convection elements - moving eastwards - will give very squally winds and could produce a small, short-lived tornado somewhere along their passage.

Even in the absence of any tornado - and I emphasise they are rare, short-lived and very localised -  with winds expected to gust at over 50mph, I fear my makeshift fence repairs will lie in tatters by the time I set off for work in the morning at 03.40hrs.

Others across the West Country and beyond will doubtless experience similar damage tonight and judging by the unusual behaviour of our cats, they evidently believe likewise. Natural intuition, I assume.

So there's another loud crashing sound outside. Great. More fence repairs loom? One of the cats meeaows almost painfully; the wind howls like something out of Wuthering Heights... and I'm trying to get to sleep in 30 minutes...

Calm weather aids BBC Children in Need

Ian Fergusson | 13:00 UK time, Saturday, 21 November 2009

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A well-timed window of calm weather arrived yesterday as the BBC Children in Need appeal got underway.

And here across the West Country, things were decidedly hectic for all my BBC colleagues during the evening - as is always the case on this annual event!

Wearing the silver and black bow tie selected by BBC SomersetIn Bridgwater, BBC Somerset hosted a well-attended outside broadcast - as well as procuring a special bow tie for me to don on TV weather through the evening. Generous staff (led by charming Morning Show presenter Emma Britton) and listeners agreed to double their donations to Children in Need if I'd wear the garment on-air. And indeed I did....

Meanwhile, here at BBC Bristol, we opened our doors to hundreds of public visitors, providing guided tours around the historic base on Whiteladies Road - home to the BBC's Natural History Unit; factual programme strands including Antiques Roadshow and DIY-SOS; and our newsroom and studios for regional television (Points West) and BBC Radio Bristol.

We were fortunate to secure the services of popular local actor Anthony Head, who presented (with typical dashing aplomb) our regional Children in Need coverage with Alex Lovell. Anthony has provided willing support and patronage to many charities over the years - including for animal welfare - and his help for Children in Need this year was a major boost in our region.

Popular actor Anthony Head joined the presenting line-up for this year's BBC Children in Need in the WestOnce I'd finished fronting our weather on Points West yesterday evening, I spent the next 3 hours showing visitors of all ages the workings of our TV news studio and the weather sets.

It's always interesting to see how willing volunteers (and believe me, there are many) cope when standing in front of the camera, the countdown clock ticking, presenting to the very same weather graphics I'd used a short time earlier on BBC ONE.

The most common surprises expressed to me are how we never use any autocue to present TV weather and just how tricky it is pointing purposefully at maps, without having to second-guess where an area of low pressure is; or a specific town or other point of interest.

Well, huge thanks to all of you who contributed this year to Children in Need. And thanks also to the weather... for a temporary interlude of calm, dry conditions last night, before the return of often wet, windy but mild conditions through this weekend and indeed through the working week ahead.

I'm returning to presenting our BBC Breakfast TV and local radio weather output on Monday, so will familiarise myself again with the 0300hrs setting on the alarm clock. It's been three weeks since I last awoke at that time, so a shock to the system awaits!

Stormy Saturday...

Ian Fergusson | 15:26 UK time, Friday, 13 November 2009

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UPDATE, SATURDAY 14 NOV., 1200hrs

It's certainly been pretty wild this morning across all our districts, with a spell of very windy weather sweeping eastwards, yielding some impressive gust speeds at many observation stations.

The geographic spread of the strongest winds has varied somewhat in the latest forecast modelling by the Met Office, when compared to those shown in my previous update from last night (see below). Nonetheless, the essence of this distinctly stormy weather story remains effectively the same.

As I write, the skies above Bristol are once again dark and threatening, as further showers pass quickly eastwards behind the squally front that crossed us around an hour or so earlier. There's still scope for some damaging gusts of wind for a while longer into the early afternoon and I'm conscious that some trees will have been weakened overnight. Indeed, we've had reports to the BBC of fallen trees in a number of districts, including parts of Gloucestershire and Somerset.  

If you have any damage reports - or indeed photos - please do share your experiences here on the blog. You can also send us pictures for the local BBC websites at yourpics@bbc.co.uk

I've pasted below the weather observations recorded across the West and environs at 11 am this morning and at midday.

You'll note some of the wind gusts labelled with a prefix 'G'. And remember, these values are in knots (you can convert them to MPH at this website).

Look down near the Isle of Wight on the 12pm observations - a gust of 83 knots.  That's 96mph!!

synops_141109_1200.jpg

synops_141109_1100.jpgUPDATE, FRIDAY 13 NOV., 2345hrs:

windspeed_09Z_141109.jpgCurrently, some of you might think it's a case of "what's all the fuss about?", as we see a (predicted, I stress!) lull in the winds across our region. It's not going to last...

I've attached here the very latest Met Office prediction of wind gusts for 9 am in the morning.

These suggest some damaging gusts are very likely: the figures you see here (e.g., 60) are knots, not mph. In other words, a high likelihood of gusts around 70mph, more than enough fell some trees and cause some structural damage to buildings. We've been seeing some of this already across the SW of England and tomorrow could yield a genuine sting in the tail.

 

UPDATE, FRIDAY 13 NOV., 1500hrs:

Wild weather continues to loom into this evening and overnight into Saturday. The major concern for us is primarily the strong winds we're expecting to develop, albeit the likelihood of heavy rain is another factor being closely monitored.

By mid-evening tonight, winds will be gusting around 60-70mph in some exposed southern districts and progressively overnight, we'll see a swathe of similarly strong gusts extend northwards to affect a broad swathe of our region.

Tomorrow morning (Saturday), winds will peak - probably around 6-9am - with gusts through the Bristol Channel touching 75mph and widely inland at 60-70mph.

And that's certainly enough to cause real problems: trees and power lines down; perhaps some structural damage; and disruption to all forms of transport.

Unsurprisingly, my planned day off on Saturday is curtailed...

However by afternoon, things will be improving. Still windy, yes, but not as troublesome in terms of gust strengths. A good deal of brighter, blustery weather will prevail for us by late Saturday, with a generally less noteworthy day (weatherwise) to come on Sunday.

However, with further wet and windy weather returning on Monday and likely again mid next week, a risk of local flooding - from a continued accumulation of rainfall - is certainly one to watch....

 

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