Rainfall was well below average in March and April - across Wales only 61mm fell, (2.5 inches). The average is 205mm (8 inches) making it the third driest on record.

By the end of April, river flows in several rivers including the Wye and Tawe were similar to, or even below, those seen during the 1976 drought.

In Wales, April was the hottest on record but for central England it was provisionally the warmest April for more than 350 years.

Despite some welcome rain this month, we could do with more to top up the rivers and streams and also replenish ground water levels.

People are already asking me what this summer is going to be like. I think it's likely to be an average summer but there are many examples of dry and warm weather in March and April followed by disappointing summers.

April 2007 was one of the driest Aprils on record in Wales but the month was followed by one the wettest summers on record.

The latest forecast for Europe from America is suggesting above average rainfall for Wales in August with average temperatures throughout the whole summer - June, July and August.

We shall have to wait and see but Terry Marsh from the Centre for Ecology and Hydrology said:

"Historical rainfall figures indicate a tendency for dry spring periods to be followed by above-average summer rainfall. However, with evaporation rates increasing, even average summer rainfall would imply very low, late summer river flows."

This weekend will bring a few showers with some rain expected on Sunday afternoon. I can promise some dry weather and sunshine as well, however, it will remain on the cool side with west to north-westerly winds.

The Vale of Glamorgan Walking Festival starts today and continues over the weekend so pack a fleece and some waterproofs just in case, as there is a risk of showers.

Derek

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