Weather this week 11 July 2012

It was nice to pull the curtains back this morning and see some blue sky which of course we haven't had much of so far this summer.

Mind you, it's not a completely dry story. The air is unstable with a few towering cumulus clouds and a scattering of heavy showers.

Looking towards ‪Pwllheli‬. Photo: Ben Wells

This evening any showers will die away to leave a dry, clear night and light winds. It will turn cool for the time of year with temperatures inland falling as low as 7 Celsius.

Tomorrow will start dry and bright with sunny spells but cloud and rain will spread from the south-west during the day. At the moment, it looks like most of rain will be in the south tomorrow afternoon. The north could well stay dry.

Friday will be unsettled with plenty of cloud, showers or longer spells of rain. Some heavy rain is possible too in parts of the north and north-east and I wouldn't rule out localised flooding given the ground is almost saturated.

Saturday will bring a few bright intervals but also showers, some of them heavy and thundery. Sunday should be a bit better; still a few showers but drier than Saturday and we should see at least some sunshine. Temperatures will be on the cool side at 14 to 17 Celsius, with a west to north-westerly breeze.

Looking ahead, there is still no sign of any prolonged dry weather on the horizon. The changeable/unsettled pattern looks set to continue for the rest of the July and into early August. The best I can offer is the odd fine day in between further spells of rain and showers.

Is our wet summer natural or is something else causing it? Could climate change be responsible?

Melting Arctic ice could be affecting the north Atlantic polar jet stream increasing the risk of blocking, leading to more extreme swings in the weather. Some prefer to blame a weaker sun for the changes in the jet stream like we are seeing now.

Whether you believe humans are changing the climate or not, it will be interesting to see what the winters and summers will be like in the years ahead and if the weather patterns we are experiencing now are a worrying trend or just a blip!


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