How England can win the Ashes
At least the scenario is a simple one. One Test to go, one victory needed. If England win at The Oval, the Ashes are theirs, no matter what horrors Headingley witnessed.
That's the easy bit. Rather more complicated is how exactly they do that. At least three of the top five batsmen are out of touch. The bowling attack was dismantled in Leeds. Australia, having struggled for much of the series, appear to have hit form at exactly the right time.
Lots of posts on these blogs over the past few days have called for substantial changes to the England side. Ravi Bopara has copped the most flak, followed closely by Ian Bell and Steve Harmison.
Calls have been made for the recall of 39-year-old Mark Ramprakash, despite the fact that he last played for England seven years ago and averaged a meagre 27 in over 50 Tests. Kent's Rob Key is another popular name, as is Warwickshire's Jonathan Trott.
But, as far as former England spinner Phil Tufnell and ex Aussie opener Matthew Hayden are concerned, that's not the way England will turn things around.
"I would say no to wholesale changes," says Tufnell. "We're one Test away from winning the Ashes. The boys have got us this far - okay, we've had a bad match, but crikey, we're playing against Australia, one of the best sides in the world. It's still 1-1.
"Hopefully Freddie Flintoff will be fit and come back into the side, but apart from that I would say, right guys - we've been together all the way through, let's put this defeat behind us - let's go out there and put it right. I'd stick with the guys.
"I would leave Bopara in. I'd say to him, we've given you the full lot, we all know you can play, this is your opportunity to right the wrongs. It's amazing sometimes how that confidence in someone can pay dividends."
Hayden, who has spent the summer as a summariser for Test Match Special, endured some rough times himself as an international batsman before finally cementing his place in the Australian line-up.
"You can't just go chopping and changing," he says. "If you make mass changes it can feel like panic, and you don't want that in any way - and do you want to do that in the last match of series when it's all on the line, because that bloke is then going to be under enormous pressure.
"Having been on the other side of fence, I can tell you that to have the lift of having a selector stick with you when you're having a bad time can do wonders for you. It's like the old adage says - form is temporary, class is permanent."
What about England's tactics at The Oval? For Tufnell, the defeat at Leeds doesn't necessarily change the way Andrew Strauss's men should approach the final Test.
"Funnily enough, it's not the end of the world needing to go for the win. In a way, knowing you have to go for the win is the best mindset you can have. If you were going there 1-0 up, wondering if you should play for a draw, that can affect you quite badly.
"The 10-day gap is critical. The team has to go away, sort out the niggles like James Anderson's hamstring, put their feet up and have a rest, and then start to get their minds ready for it all.
"This defeat all happened so quickly, and things can easily go a bit wayward in the aftermath. You need to get the coaches working, get the camaraderie going, get the buzz back, feel like you want to go out there.
"It's been a series between two very evenly-matched sides. We knew Australia were going to come back strongly; they got a bit of belief from the way it finished at Edgbaston, and for the first time, the bowlers have hit their straps.
"Cricket is all about momentum. There's a lot made of that word, but the Aussies have it at the moment. In Cardiff that last-wicket partnership got us out of a hole and we took that to Lord's, and we can get it back."
Hayden believes there will be two key factors for England: the fitness of the talismanic Flintoff, and the state of the Oval pitch.
"For the balance of the side, Fred will have to come back in. He was an enormous loss to England in Leeds, not dissimilar to when we lost Glenn McGrath in 2005.
"He'll have to come back into the side, and then my pick would be to bowl the left-arm and right-arm spinners.
"Australia will go with a quartet of fast bowlers. They'll look to find up and down movement as the pitch deteriorates and causes doubt and trouble for the batsmen.
"England don't want a pitch that has anything green about it. A good even one, quite a dry one - that allows the option of double spinners to come into play, which is why Monty Panesar might come into contention."
Headingley was about as depressing it could have been for England supporters. Despite that, the series is alive.
One game, one win. It's not a bad finale.