Minneapolis musings

It's very strange indeed to be on the Mississippi in its northern meanderings, knowing that more than 1,200 miles downstream, where it spreads out into the Gulf of Mexico, they're fleeing from the coast, evacuating New Orleans - and accepting the fact that a natural disaster is almost certainly upon them, for the second time in three years.

Here in Minneapolis, politics has been officially suspended. But, of course, this event has deep political implications. There's no contradiction in this: it's perfectly honourable for John McCain to be personally gripped by the plight of the people in the hurricane's path - "in harm's way" as they say in a cliché that seems to spring up on every page of every speech these days - and at the same time to be giving some thought to the political implications. He would be daft if he didn't.

Similarly, Barack Obama is well aware that this disaster - if that's what it turns out to be - will focus people's minds on the issue of leadership, which is the heart of the presidential election, and so he has to consider how best to play his cards.

The reason why leadership is important is that George W Bush's presidency was hit amidships by Hurricane Katrina, and the political damage was probably as great as that done by Iraq. Many Americans were ashamed at the performance of their government in response to the catastrophe - buses that couldn't get from Atlanta to New Orleans, flood defences that weren't there, the terrible sight of 1,800 people dying in an American city, most of them poor and without anything to help them get out of "harm's way". A very senior figure in the administration told me a year later that it was, in this official's judgement, a series of mistakes that would never be forgotten by the people. The mistakes fell into two categories - the simple bureaucratic bungling that has often dogged this administration, and the apparent fecklessness of the president himself, who was in Arizona (at John McCain's 69th birthday party) when the (predicted) crisis began, and who had to suffer the indignity of his chosen head of the Federal Emergency Management Agency being exposed in subsequent congressional inquiries as hopelessly inadequate and someone who held the post principally because he was an old Bush family crony. The consequence for Mr McCain is profound.

View of New Orleans

He has to demonstrate that he behaves differently. That is why on Sunday he decided to behave like a president-in-waiting. He's got no more locus in the crisis that Barack Obama (except that it's his party convention that Mr Bush has decided not to attend....) but he immediately took to the skies with Gov Sarah Palin, his running mate, and began to speak as if it was he who was directing the operations.

When it all began, the view around the convention here was that it was all bad news for the Republicans. I wasn't entirely sure about that, though it was the first obvious thought, and have become even more convinced in the last few hours that Mr McCain could emerge from this strengthened. It plays to his particular qualities, and fits with the general feeling that he is probably a good man in a crisis. All that leaves Senator Obama on the sidelines, a bit out of it. He's said all the right things - he's staying away because he doesn't want to get in the way, his vast army of supporters will be encouraged to donate money to the clean-up effort if it's required - but it may well be that by the time the week is over, John McCain will have achieved what, for him, has been one of his aims for a long time (and a very tricky one to accomplish) - to make a contrast with the sitting president.

Until Gustav began to loom so menacingly, the talk here had been about the surprise McCain choice of Sarah Palin as running mate. There's no doubt that it's a risk. Her political experience is limited - being a mayor and then a governor in Alaska isn't premier league stuff, however challenging the negotiations with oil companies might be - and no-one can be sure how she will stand up to the day-and-night presence of microphones and cameras by her side for the next 60 days.

But there is one huge plus for McCain. Over the weekend, he raised $7m from social conservatives who were delighted by her appointment. There were reports from the platform committee here that some of its members were weeping with joy when they heard of it (and ascribing mcCain's wisdom to divine intervention, as is their wont); Pastor Jim Dobson - one of the most influential figures on the evangelical Right - says it has finally persuaded him to recommend voting for McCain. Sarah Palin is what's known as a 'movement conservative' - 'sound' on the questions of God, guns and gays and absolutely opposed to abortion. She will be sent out to those who were recruited to the Republican cause by Karl Rove when he was building a new coalition for George Bush. Once again they will be stuffing the envelopes, manning the phone banks. For the Republicans, this is important. They desperately need that base; Obama's army is enormous, and his new registrations among voters are very threatening to McCain. Without 'the base' he'd be sunk. Moreover, he is lagging badly among women voters. Palin - mother of five, classic America mom, wife of an Alaskan fisherman - is reckoned to be a character who will make the ticket more attractive.

But....there is no doubt that it is a gamble. The two don't know each other well. It could backfire. There are plenty fingers crossed among Republicans here.

They know that about 40 million people watched the Obama speech in Denver last week, more Americans than watched the opening of the Olympics. McCain needed something eye-catching, and he found it.

And then came Gustav. Where will this end?

I do not know, but I know this: don't pay any attention to the national opinion polls. They put the candidates neck and neck, but the people I know who're immersed in this stuff - Democrats, Republicans and many in between - don't believe that they're telling us very much. Firstly, it isn't a national vote for president, of course, but a state-by-state contest.

Second, the samples are vanishingly small. I saw a poll the other day purporting to give an accurate picture of the views of a country of more than 300 million with a sample of fewer than 800 voters. I'm sorry, but I want something better than that. It's far better to look at state polls.

This election, and all that hangs on it, is determinedly unpredictable. There used to be a rule of American politics that most voters didn't make up their minds until the end of the baseball World Series, in the third week of October (that is, about two weeks before polling day). That's less true now, but it's worth remembering. Many of them are just tuning in now. Add that to everything we've seen in the last week alone and you realise what lies ahead.

McCain and Obama are locked in a titanic struggle. And today, the Bush presidency - dealing with another hurricane - seems more on the wane than ever. Few presidents have seemed to cede so much power with four months to go before leaving office, but that's what's happened. It's a measure of the quality of this contest, and the seriousness of its arguments. Don't tell me that it isn't a good thing. It is.

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