Behind the scenes in Manchester
Here's an enigmatic comment from a steely-eyed member of the Cabinet, about the backbenchers who want a change of leadership. "They're either playing a short game or a long game." For a moment you wonder if this makes sense.
Then you realise that it does - no-one is quite sure how this will play out. Either there will be an effort to go for the Prime Minister if Labour loses the Glenrothes by-election in Fife (probably next month) or - much more likely - the approach of the local and European elections next summer will precipitate the crisis. That's a sombre prospect for ministers, but it's one they all seem to share.
Politics always operates in two dimensions at once, the public and the private. But talking to a cross-section of the Cabinet here, on the conference round - hearing what they'd only say in private - you realise how different the public displays of unity are from the anxiety underneath.
"It's hell," one of them said last night. Another put it like this: "If Gordon can make people feel good about this government in his speech - just happy again - it will be fine. If not, we've got a long fight on our hands."
That came from a strong supporter of the Prime Minister. All of them speak of a Cabinet in which, by a common estimate, there are four ministers who could resign - though no-one thinks they'd do it en masse. And individually none has the making of a Spartacus on the backbenches to lead the mob into battle.
"Just look at them. It's very thin. Not really serious," says one minister about the backbench rebels and the disaffected bit of the Cabinet (not, incidentally, a comment meant to include David Miliband).
Struggling through
Thin, maybe. But you don't have to spend time with many ministers to realise how corrosive this is - a word I heard from three members of the Cabinet last night.
The fear is obvious. Either a move against the Prime Minister next month (in some unspecified way), or a spring coup - unless Gordon Brown can somehow engender a different spirit among his ministers.
Along with "corrosive", a favourite phrase these days is "struggling through". It reflects the feeling that maybe the real danger for them is a simple draining of energy that leaves them all floundering. This Cabinet minister's analysis sums it up: "If Gordon gets the Tory lead under 10% by Easter he'll probably be there for the election. Otherwise, probably not."
Nothing has really happened here in Manchester, rather confusingly. "That speech was neither one thing nor the other" one of his colleagues - and friends - said of David Miliband's performance in the hall.
It was neither a declaration of permanent loyalty nor a signal of burning ambition. The truth is that as things stand there is no alternative leader with a movement behind him. So you might be tempted to think that they all believe a potential crisis has passed.
They do. But they don't think that is a feeling that will last. You'd find it hard to winkle out a Cabinet minister here who believes this is over. Their real difficulty is that they can't read the next chapter, using the ability they treasure so much at the top of politics. So they're troubled, and that won't change with one speech.
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It seems to me that Mr Brown has merely provided fresh evidence that he is such an intransigent political operator that his solution to every crisis is to spend even more money – a key reason why he has lost so much support.
The responsible course of action, a phrase much in evidence at Labour's conference, would be to lower taxes and scale back the public sector. It is the advice that would be proffered by Gordon Brown's one-time
political soul-mate, Prudence.
For, unless he embraces such an approach, the Prime Minister may find that he very quickly runs out of political credit and that his premiership has to be put out of its own misery – for the sake of the Government, the Labour Party and the country at large
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It's difficult to imagine that the Tories will not be in government next time. If Brown is still leader he must stay on to establish a strong new era in opposition and build towards re-election. If he, or his colleagues, can't see this future, Brown should give way to someone who can stay the course. The worst scenario would be a crushing defeat at the general election, loss of many good Labour MPs, embarrassing recriminations and lost time finding a new leader.
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i hope that you had a nice time in manchester...
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Dennis - im pretty sure the politicians and the journos have a good time at every conference - i happened to be staying at this hotel in manchester when this conference was taking place and ive rarely come across such a rowdy bunch!
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it is fascinating to see how politicians impose their parallax views on the reporters who cover their performances. we end up with a media which is more crosseyes than the establishment themselves. in the case of today i am sure this is because the presenters all have to get up at 4 am and have a very hazy grasp of the realities that determine the lives of the rest of the world. but it is clear that doesn't need to be the case for a journalist to succumb.......but it certainly helps them into more and more column inches.
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