Sussex still the team to beat (0)
- 15 Apr 08, 10:51 AM
This is a job I loathe. The only people who will enjoy reading it will be those who will keep a copy and come waving it in my face in August proving how wrong I was.
Predictions for the new county season is not only a fool's game but also if I was a coach or captain and someone put in print that my side would be relegated before a ball was bowled in anger I would think them pretty stupid.
But I got the call and was told I had to do it and so I have.
To try to make sense of a very competitive Championship race I will divide the nine teams into three groups of three and, starting with the clubs most likely to win - Sussex, Lancashire and Somerset.
I believe Sussex will win that sought-after hat-trick of titles. If only for the reason that I can't think of why they shouldn't.
I mustn't keep saying it depends if key players stay fit but how much longer can 37-year-old Mushtaq Ahmed keep going? Overall, with Matt Prior back for the summer, they look a stronger squad than last year. Prior will score runs and even if he doesn't keep wicket his work as a fielder will be vital.
I watched Lancashire practice last week and, looking at the quality of players at their disposal, couldn't get my head around why they have gone for so long without major trophies.
Andrew Flintoff should get them off to a strong start, players old and young should respond well to new captain Stuart Law, and they should push Sussex all the way again.
With so little difference between the squads it really could come down to the weather. Hove appears to be in a very special spot. I often read "rain stopped play" at Canterbury and the Rose Bowl but somehow they still play on further along at the seaside. That is why I select Sussex.
If Sussex and Lancashire slip up Justin Langer, Marcus Trescothick and Andrew Caddick will lead the challenge from the south west and Somerset are very serious contenders.
The jump from the Second to the First Division is a difficult one but with that experience and talent at Taunton they should prove difficult opponents. Back-up bowling to Caddick could prove an issue, though.
The middle three involves Durham, Surrey and Yorkshire. All three have a chance and will make up the top six who could all be challenging for the title right up until the beginning of September.
Durham will miss Ottis Gibson badly but with Steve Harmison available for who knows how long and Graham Onions and Liam Plunkett around they posses bowling to back up an exciting batting order.
Mark Ramprakash will carry on getting loads of runs but do Surrey have the bowling to win enough games?
Yorkshire's failure to maintain performances with bat and ball for the entire season last year remains an issue and that is why I can't see them winning the title.
Gough was outstanding as captain in 2007 and his commitment to playing through the pain barrier was fantastic but potential must become much more than that if they are to lift silverware.
The fight to avoid the drop is most likely to involve, Hampshire, Kent and Nottinghamshire. I pick these three because they appear to face the biggest challenges.
Chris Read could make a very good captain at Trent Bridge but what boots to fill with Stephen Fleming now gone. One of Nottinghamshire's strengths has always been the whole team effort but without England regular Ryan Sidebottom they have lost a vital match winner.
Kent will continue to be well led by Rob Key. Winning the Twenty20 Cup was a tremendous result for them and could be repeated, but at this stage I see little to convince me they will win many Championship games.
Hampshire will miss Shane Warne more than any team will miss any player - including Sussex and Mushtaq in the future - and I therefore think they also face a tough summer.
Now that Shane Bond is allowed to play he could help keep them safe but I fancy a tough year at the Rose Bowl.
As for the Second Division, Warwickshire should never have been relegated and to watch their poor displays last year was very disappointing. Ashley Giles should make all the difference in getting them back up.
Worcestershire's lack of bowling apart from Kabir Ali was also going to struggle in the top flight and they should find their squad now very competitive again in the lower league. Ali is like Matthew Hoggard at Yorkshire and Harmison at Durham to name a couple - bowlers who don't fancy being overlooked by England just yet.
Look out for Glamorgan and Derbyshire. Changes at both those clubs since last September means they should be in with a shout.
Especially so at Cardiff, where with a new stadium and Matthew Maynard back with an impressive bunch of youngsters, they can "do a Durham" and I'm certain they will do so this year or in 2009.
In terms of the overall picture, the whole domestic game will miss Warne, including the umpires.
He did what other captains often don’t do - risk losing to win. It doesn't work every time and for everyone but I do hope in this season more than any other recently captains remember to entertain.
County cricket will get a bashing this year unless the ECB responds aggressively to the IPL and while I don't question for a minute anyone's right to play wherever and for whoever they want, they should all spare a moment to think about the future of the game of which they are a product.
There has been a lot of talk about the big names missing this season. Well I don't much care about that. There is enough young and promising talent to enjoy in both divisions. From Adil Rashid to Paul Horton and Billy Godleman to name but a few.
There is even that new kid on the block, 32-year-old Alan Richardson of Middlesex. I would not be on my own raising a glass to further recognition of his often understated performances.
Sidebottom is not quite as old, of course, but what happened in 2007/8 to him should be a lesson for a few more that hard work in the Championship can be rewarded.
Predictions of failure are often posted on dressing room notice boards as an incentive to prove another media idiot wrong. Well to all those players, good luck and all the best.
As long as you are not suffering from the same self doubt as I am writing this you will be fine.
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