The global recession is dead. Long live the global recession.
That is the basic message of the IMF's latest economic update. Overall, it thinks global output has probably stopped falling in the past few months. But that's almost entirely due to better economic times in China and India. In the advanced economies we'll be feeling the pain for some time to come.
It's a remarkable sign of the times that the global economy could be said to be growing, even as the US and the euro area - responsible for at least 40% of global GDP - continue to shrink.
As the chart below shows, the Fund's economists have decided that the emerging economies might be able to "decouple" after all, at least the ones in Asia.
They do think the advanced economies might start to recover earlier than previously forecast, with very modest growth towards the end of this year. The US forecast for 2009 has been nudged up a little, and it's now expected to grow by 0.8% in 2010, instead of not growing at all.
And the UK forecast for next year is also up, with growth of 0.2% now in 2010 instead of another year of decline (though the forecast is down a little for 2009 - thanks to that unexpectedly bad out-turn in the first few months).
But all the action for the next year or two is expected to be in the developing countries - or, to be more precise, India and China. China is now expected to grow by 7.5% this year and 8.5% in 2010.
For India the figures are 5.4% and 6.5%. All these forecasts are about a percentage point higher than they were in April.
As you'll remember, "decoupling" was all the rage in 2007, though the term meant different things to different folks.
The weaker version of the theory was simply that the emerging economies might be able to continue to grow, even if the US and other advanced economies did not.
The stronger version said that China, India and the rest could not only grow in the face of a recession in the West, but actually help to pull our economies out.
When the crisis in the advanced economies hit demand for emerging market exports last year, all versions of the decoupling thesis started to look painfully naive.
As the chart shows, most of these economies were dragged into recession as well. But one year on, their recessions look likely to be a lot briefer, and more "V" shaped than ours.
It may not be true decoupling - as the IMF warns, the recent acceleration in growth in some of these economies could peter out if the advanced economies fail to pick up.
We also have to remember that most of these economies, with their rapid population growth, need much faster growth than we do, to achieve any growth at all in income per head. Their "normal" growth rate is a lot faster than ours.
But the idea that the emerging world can get along OK without us looks slightly less mad than it did.
Yes, the collapse in world trade has hit the developing economies hard. The IMF now expects the volume of world trade to shrink by more than 12%, even more than before. And the rich economies have been buying much less from the rest of the world - their imports are now expected to fall by nearly 14% in 2009. That has affected the demand for developing country exports, but not by as much as you might have thought.
Overall, their exports are expected to fall by "only" 6.5% this year. Of course, some have been hit harder than others. But if you are China or India, decoupling lives - at least in the weakest sense of the term. Whether either of these emerging behemoths can help speed up our own slow return to economic health is another matter.