Flattening, not falling?
Guess what. The recession might have (almost) ended in the summer after all.
The ONS said this morning that construction output rose by 2% in the third quarter of this year. Why does this matter? It matters because in calculating what had happened to the whole economy in those three months, our official statistical body had reckoned that construction output had fallen, by 1.1%.
Other things equal, that would mean that the 0.4% decline in GDP announced in October, which has already been revised up to 0.3%, would be revised up again on 22 December - to a decline of just 0.1%.
Statistically speaking, a decline of 0.1% is really no decline at all. It's also not far off what many independent economists were expecting when that first estimate came out on 23 October - and caused such a shock.
Does this mean the "sceptics" are right and the ONS was wrong? Well, hardly. Until we see the third version of the GDP figures in a few weeks' time, we don't even know whether the numbers will be revised upwards that far.
But those who doubted the first set of numbers will feel that history is moving their way.
It's always possible that there will be other "new news" about the third quarter that pushes the figures the other way - but there's no sign of anything yet, and looking at the figures to be released between now and 22 December, it looks fairly unlikely. (Theoretically, both the index of production and retail sales numbers for November could include revisions of previous months which affect GDP, but there's no reason to think they will.)
Yet, even if the economy did flatten out from August onwards, there is little sign that it is storming ahead. Quite the reverse.
The news we have had so far of the start of the fourth quarter has not been that great: the CIPS/Markit surveys for manufacturing and services both came in lower than expected in November.
True, the data still point to some modest growth in output in the last three months of the year. The Treasury will be especially gutted if the economy fails to expand now: if there were going to be any measurable impact of the temporary cut in VAT, you would have expected to see it in these three months, as consumers buy now before prices go back up.
It will be a happy Christmas for the government if the GDP figures do get revised up in a few weeks' time. But as 1,700 soon-to-be ex-steel workers in Teesside can attest, it's not time to celebrate just yet.


I'm 
~RS~q~RS~~RS~z~RS~34~RS~)