Everything will change
Do you want to know how bad the recession will be and what kind of global economy will be built from the rubble?
Here are a few clues. It's a short discussion I chaired for Radio 4's PM programme with Roger Carr, the chairman of Centrica and Cadbury, Richard Lambert, director general of the CBI, and Martin Wolf, the Financial Times's chief economic comentator.
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the best state to be is if you have hot nothing to lose
and to try your best be happy all day long every day
africans will be alright europeans will weep and moan
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Europe should invest in Africa
(to do good this time)
They've got the resources
We've got the knowledge base
To help and not manipulate
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isn't wonderful.
British jobs for British workers misses the point.
how many protesting can speak more than their own mother tongue ?
we have been on such a negative path where, the others will learn English, we become lazy with languages and we have so many people who don't know how to say "please" or "thank you" in ANY language because we feel they should learn the English language, our language !
in recent years the numbers of children at school doing any foreign language subject has dropped like a stone yet the cultural effect of "trying" to speak in a tongue that we do not know gets a better response than the IGNORANT ENGLISHMAN abroad who SHOUTS "4 beers" , "4 beers" !
can this change ?
can we afford for it not to change ?
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If the majority of British banks debts on their books is based on overseas lending why not just sell on a proportion of these debts to other financial banks around the world?
Most of the banks have been restricting credit to UK businesses but what about the overseas businesses that they lend to?
They have been very quiet on this issue.
We are in a situation where banks have made bad losses on American mortgage investments and instruments related to that sector.
They are trying to claw back these losses by cutting business overdrafts, raising interest on current overdrafts and other loans for business , and refusing to do new business with startups in the UK.
They also claim mortgage rates must remain much higher than the BOE rate because interbank lending is high but we all know that they have hundreds of billions in savings accounts to counter balance a fair proportion of UK mortgage lending on which they are paying very little interest.
All this profit making by banks from lending out money from low savings accounts to mortgage lenders at rates much higher than the BOE rate means more profit for the banks and less money for consumers to invest and spend on in the wider economy.
By squeezing credit terms and raising interest rates for businesses as well banks are making more profit but at the expense of businesses who have to close down, lay of workers or freeze taking on new staff. Or stop new businesses from even starting up.
Banks should be treating foreign lending the same as UK lending and cutting lending and overdrafts and raising interest rates to offset losses made on American mortgage investments and other instruments.
Where possible they should also offload foriegn debt when it is possible.
UK banks should not be just allowed to squeeze UK savers,borrowers and businesses to make profits for them to cover other losses when so much of their banking is done overseas as well.
The PM needs to be looking into this now.
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morning Robert and all Mullerites
Interesting discussion. It certainly feels odd to hear mea culpas from members of the financial establishment. They are clearly shocked and a little bit scared, despite their great wealth compared to regular folks like us.
My view (which is certainly not original) is that the slump continues to gather pace and that the authorities have had very little impact on it so far. They have failed to gain any traction against it, despite all their efforts.
No incumbent political leader can hope to do well in these circumstances. Brown has tried to be decisive (not his nature) but is starting to struggle a bit more now and is getting caught out by the contradictions in his statements (ie about British jobs for British workers vs the dangers of protectionism). His initiatives have already been centred on trying to encourage the banks into financial protectionism, in a way.
Protectionism is a great danger to GDP and average standard of living as it will directly result in less trade. So the established thinking is that it must be very bad. I tend to agree but would admit that there are arguments for alternatives, such as local cooperative economies, slow city and slow food movements etc; and of course negotiating and advantage against other countris (like the USA has done ever since WWII by dominating the post-war institutions).
Let's face it, protectionist moves are going to grow, whatever we think.
It is perhaps significant that the US $800 stimulus package that passed in the House last week included a 'buy American' clause that is worrying the Canucks a lot and is also legally challengable in relation to NAFTA. Here in Europe the strains are growing quickly, as various stries reflect.
And can anyone really believe that the Chinese and Russians are going to be helpful at the G20 in April..........
Given all of this it is perfectly understandable that a lot of workers at UK refineries have effectively wild-catted today. He who shouts loudest gets an advantage....... it might only be briefly, but....
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some interesting snippets of news from today's papers, that struck a chord with me:
(1) LA woman who had octuplets already had SIX children! so now 14 children! how can this be justified? no need as it's been made possible by the FREE MARKET
(2) an English person pays over £200,000 pounds sterling for a licence plate A1 or such like; for the cost of this piece of tin tens of thousands of refugees from Darfur etc could not only be fed but helped to build wells, schools etc; how sad but none of our business as it's the operation of the FREE MARKET
(3) Merrill Lynch bankers, on the eve of their takeover by BoA on Dec 31st, were awarded over $4bn of bonuses (c. $90,000 average but much much higher for senior staff) despite ML losing $15bn in that quarter alone; and they had received a lot of US taxpayers money, which helped to pay for it: make you mad? well sorry but it's just the operation of the FREE MARKET
(4) the chap who assassinated Che in Boliva, now old, had gone blind; he was very poor and is one of the 1.4 million people who have been given operations by Cuban trained doctors in Cuban hospitals, paid for by Venezuela: how nice but surely we must condemn it because it is the result of SOCIALISM and INTERFERENCE IN THE PROPER OPERATION OF THE FREE MARKET
looking at the situation as of today, who is it that deserves respect ........ obviously Cuba is far from perfect but given the boycott and all their other difficulties it is quite remarkable; whilst we have achieved what exactly? ordinary terraced houses in Islington changing hands for over £1 million (pounds)
It's time we admit to our erros and begin to make the adjustments to a less wasteful and selfish life where our consumption is sustainable; that means less material goods ......... is it poorer? depends how you measure it
Last time I checked, it seemed that your average Cuban looked a lot happier than the average Englishman, despite hurricanes, falling-down houses and rationing
Given that we're going to have a severe recession/slump/whatever we might want to think Cuban
Aside from having your own allotment I can think of several other big pluses that the English could do with:
better at dancing
better in the sack
better music
need I go on?
I rest my case
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Alot of Joe Public already know whats coming - THE ONE WORLD CURRENCY which will be pleaded for as things are going to get so bad.
Has the decision been made yet on how were going to get there - deflation / inflation - who cares merely a means to an end.
Still believe this was all an accident and accept the incompetence and blame greed - STILL BELIEVE 9 11 WAS DONE BY MEN IN CAVES - believe that flouride in water supply is good for your teeth!!!!!!!!!!!!
alot of people warned and predicted the this collapse yet the media tells us no one seen it coming - comparrisons to the 1930,s except this time they want everything and so far they are getting it and people are swallowing it
waiting for the next move - ITS A COMPLETE JOKE
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That discussion leaves me totally cold. Carr, Lambert and Wolf have no better idea than you or I about what is going to happen. They are all whistling in the wind and hoping for the best.
I do agree that we cannot return to 2006 (I think he meant 2007 but bye the bye). However, that is true domestically as well as internationally. It was not just the bankers who were making hay whilst the sun shone - most of Lambert's members (including Carr) also had their snouts in the trough.
Somali-Pirate is right when he says that "protectionist moves are going to grow, whatever we think. " It is a natural response to a national crisis. To stand against it in the vain hope of an immediate and strong internationalist treaty is just a waste of breath. better, in my opinion, to critically appraise what we have currently got and draw up plans to support and develop it.
Sure GDP will be effected but it will be even worse if we continue to hold open the door whilst others look after their own best interests.
There was a brief window when Europe could have truly united in the best interests of all of the economies and peoples. However, I believe that is now past as sovereign governments will be turned inwards. This is in no small way due to the lack of constructive proposals coming out of Brussels.
I do understand that protectionism will have an adverse effect upon developing nations. However, we in the UK will be of no assistance to them if we are reduced to the same state.
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#2
China and India are already there.
Why would anyone in Africa look to us given the lessons of history? Recent events haven’t exactly reassured anyone that the rich movers and shakers actually know what they are doing. Unazungumza kiSwahili? Luga moja haitoshi!
#3
We speak only English. Luga moja haitoshi!
Dumbing-down isn't the cause of our economy. It is an effect. How many of us had to discuss in essay form 'Football as the new religion and Consequences' as a set piece of homework? Yet the lesson doesn’t seem to have been learned. The great and the good have been so pleased since it meant they could easily tell the general population that all was well while Beckham was bending it, John Sergeant was strutting it, etc.
Andrew Marr's History of Modern Britain reads as though he had a crystal ball sitting on his desk as he composed his text. Business leaders and politicians follow the latest trendy methods, almost like the latest fad diet, indicating to me they have no idea what they are doing, or worse have no ability to apply any critical reasoning to what the latest self-help for business best-seller tells them. Someone said, let's market these bad mortgages with a bit of polish and make a mint. They sold them. They made a mint. And now..... I’ve even seen psychological/intelligence tests (excellent marketing of bad science) to identify and screen out those deemed too intelligent and therefore unsuitable for employment (band management) as part of interview processes.
The problem is far greater than that. As a nation we prefer not to study the difficult subjects at school and on into University - science, mathematics, engineering etc. Bankers and industry leaders have little interest in these subjects and the benefits they provide society - note how many schools have been built by business men who seem to have a desire promote religion in recent years. The press and media in general are scientifically illiterate too, although there has been some improvement but with a long way to go still. The government now has a ‘value science and understand the impact science has on your daily being’ marketing campaign. Why are we in a position for this to be needed at all?
Yet we are facing major issues – the environment, the economy, wars, mass hunger in the third world. It is the scientists and engineers we will need to provide us with the knowledge, the tools and the insight to build new, sustainable economies.
We need a wide range of skills and expertise and we need to learn to value them, not only in our society but in our businesses. We must understand that the decision makers who have taken us this far are unable to design and implement the fixes we need. The purported talents that brought these people to become the decision makers are not appropriate for the economies that will emerge from this mess, one day. And in this new economy, the needs of the electorate will have to be respected. If that means upsetting business leaders then so be it. They have shown they are not deserving of special privilege in preference to voters. Voters too will have to take responsibility and actually consider the issues and vote for more than immediate self-interest.
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Well done Martin Wolf.
At last someone who understands whats going on and as the Financial Times's chief economic comentator, has the voice to spread the word, lets hope he has the energy to shout louder and longer.
Go for it Martin
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I love listening to Martin Wolf. He's a great speaker and he says the most exciting things about the world economy. He can scare us much more effectively than Robert.
In this length of interview he only has time to tempt us with the idea that "things must change" but, teasingly, doesn't tell us what exactly the changes are meant to be. I have tried to remedy that in the following article:
http://www.knowingandmaking.com/2009/01/martin-wolf-in-davos.html
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9. CoralBloom :
" #2
China and India are already there.
Why would anyone in Africa look to us given the lessons of history?"
+
True, but it would save the UK's bacon and do some good over there too (if it was a goer)
e.g. employment opportunities, industries, resources, education, reduce poverty
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everything has to change the economy as we know it is finished. i am fed up with the blame game that is taking place . there is no collective solution as individual circumstances vary so widely . debt has to be paid back not increased many will have to consider bankruptcy as their only option as we enter frightening times.
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we may have a dysfunctional society where so much happens too quickly it's time to cool down the pace and read the signs to decide what are values should really be about.
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House Prices is not a growth industry.
They were manipulated by estate agents, home builders, mortgage and investment brokers, to maximise their upfront commissions at the expense of the public or real everyday people.
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People in financial difficulties should change their mortgages to interest only (not repayment) so they have LESS equity in their homes to make repossessions unattractive to creditors. (A mortgage is a lifetime of debt)
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I don't know about 'Everything will change' as things have a natural tendency to return to the status quo.
I certainly agree that 'Everything must change'
Anybody hear of Amazon Turks
I have seen the future and it is not bright
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Does Davos achieve anything or is just a talking shop with nice scenery?
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#12
I am at a loss as to why you think Africa would save our bacon?
I've spent quite a bit of time in Africa. There are poor people in Africa, there are many educated people in Africa too. They are trying to save their own bacon - rightly so.
Go to Uganda and look at the schools so many charities have built. There are no teachers teaching. The teachers are working in factories and on the land. They can't live on their salaries.
Have you noticed the humanitarian disaster in and around Goma, DRC? There is an awful lot of coltan being ripped out of the ground and sold to make electronic goods such as mobile phones. Much of the fighting is to maintain rebel control of these mines. There are massive fields of refugee camps - they are receiving no benefit from the mines. They live in fear, real fear.
Are you suggesting our companies and investment bankers invest, and remove the profit? That won't help the young mothers and their children.
You aren't suggesting the fabulously talented bankers we have move over there and try again on a different continent? Why would the Congolese be happy at having to suffer the inept experts?
The Niger delta has quite a bit of industrialisation too. Now there is a good bet for those who don't like government regulations interfering with business activities. The pollution has ruined vast swathese of beautiful land leaving the people in dire need.
There are now those in Africa who dread a geologist identifying buried black gold.
Perhaps you think Mogadishu would be a city worth consideration for a new office block full of investment bankers?
And while the investment bankers are busy making friends with the locals perhaps the Africans just might teach us lot how to survive on next to nothing, a little closer to nature with some reall innovations.
Mobile phone charging kiosks in Uganda, boda bodas - bicycle taxis just about everywhere, wooden bicycles for transportation, the common use of solar power, TV halls - most folk couldn't own a TV so in Africa there are so many pay-per-view TV halls, vegetable gardens, the real value of education - I've yet to find a word in an African language for truant - that concept is way beyond African ideals.
We would do well to learn from the ordinary guy making a living in Africa.
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everything must change....well that is a no brainer but what must not happen is to go back to the way it was. However every "solution" the government comes up with is designed to do exactly that!
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Robert -I can't listen to this on dial up from overseas (do your moderators have time to write up?), but re yesterdays post you're telling us news that all your blogsters have been harping on about for the last 4 months - credit isn't the answer.
As for Jamie Dillon and your comments and those such as 123. JohnConstable yesterday. What rubbish. He has worked for Citibank (major borrower from US gov, and JP Morgan (25 usd billion bailout). What credibility does he hold? where can I google him spouting about Imprudent lending in the noughties? I can find he earned £41.6bn in 2006 - 19th richest on the Fortune list. What personal money is he putting in to prop up JP Morgan (and I don’t mean buying shares)? Surely CEO's of HSBC, Standard Chartered and American equivalents - I assume some smaller US banks exist should be top of the list of people to listen to? Yes, less listen to remorseful bankers too, but I don't hear him apologising.
On a simple level, Comments from 182. Mrs Bloggs13c2 are far more on the mark. Most UK banks have been tarnished by foolish American financial wizardry . Our major crime, as a financial centre of excellence was not researching our risk - exposing these emperors new clothes eques CDS's etc for what they are worth. Too many lavish lunches weakened our bankers ability to do their maths in the afternoons and they bought into the 'poo'. Caveat emptor anyone?
We can't draw a line under things and move on until we have true Sirs. Knights and other titled people in the positions of power in Banking who fulfil the human characteristics that Joe Public and the Queen want and need them to display. Characteristics that these titles are assumed to carry as mentioned by others, humility, sincerity, bravery, courage etc..
Instead we can read on 21st Jan that these same praised chiefs of JP Morgan and the like are siphoning up their own company’s share stocks at rock bottom prices, (11.5 million dollars for our Jamie) – insider information maybe that even their supporting governments aren’t being allowed to see?
http://dealbook.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/01/21/bank-of-america-and-jpmorgan-chiefs-buy-stock/
Therefore we are left to conclude that characteristics of greed, fear, insincerity and boastfulness sadly still prevail in many of these senior people to whom we’re relying on leading us out of this crisis. What they will do with all the money they make is anyone’s guess – they can’t take it with them but their legacy and reputations will remain long after the money is gone. The financial sector needs a breath of fresh air - someone with courage and dignity to encourage it to do the job it needs to do for the rest of business and the good of the common people. Who will rise to the challenge?
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19. At 08:19am on 31 Jan 2009, CoralBloom wrote:
"#12
I am at a loss as to why you think Africa would save our bacon?"
+
(I have only been to Kenya on safari but) I thought Africa was like a blank book open for so much potential, where there is nothing but land with few cities. To help Africa positively to reduce poverty would be satisfying to some.
We can help them develop (e.g. send junior doctors to gain experience, as there is one doctor for thousands of people) and train them in skills.
It may not be the right time now but in the future (5, 10, 20+ years) things will have changed. Qualified people from third world countries tend to leave to come to western countries and never go back to help their motherland, but they could go to teach when they near retirement.
Colonialisation was a lot about the resources from all over the world and a fairer sharing method of trade should be established where both sides benefit. I don't know about current politics, but I imagine it is messy and tribal, so I don't understand the reality of implementing ideals. Maybe it would be possible for Africa to feed the world in the future.
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#16
Not sure I agree that those in trouble should move to "interest-only" mortgages. They should also consider selling, renting and buying again in the future when prices will likely be lower still.
As for "a mortgage is a lifetime of debt" - I'm not sure. You can debate whether 20/25 years is a lifetime, but there also doesn't seem to be a massive difference between a 20 year mortgage and saving for 20 years then buying a house outright.
The latter is cheaper in the long run, but the former gives you 20 more years in the house.
The problem is that credit was given too freely, allowing house prices to rise uncontrollably, not that mortgages per se are evil.
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It is a routine. We been through the same situations ages ago. And we proved our selves 'THE BEST' being a great country to live through out the history.
This is the reason people still willing to come to briton for their rest of the life.
The QUESTION is how to get throgh safely and securely.
ANSWER is not in the future but its in past. We set up industries. produced cheap clothes and othe products with A class quality and sold them to world. We all had work. hardly few were un-employed. We earned money from the entire world by saling our skill and products.
In current days, we have no product to manufacture and sale to the world. The factories like FORD and others, they just do assambley of the product while actual production is being done in china or india (which are the most developing countries because of their ability for manufacturing)
Ohh...... i am tired now . sorry not use to with writing a lot. But the rest you can think your self. chears...............
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19. At 08:19am on 31 Jan 2009, CoralBloom wrote:
"We would do well to learn from the ordinary guy making a living in Africa".
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Some ordinary guys working might have to do an initial 3 months probationary period for free before they get offered a definite job. They leave their families and work away from home for a month before they get time off. UK companies could improve their standards of life by implementing fairer employment
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#12 and #19
Regarding extraction of minerals from Africa:
The price paid to the African countries is the raw material price only. Take diamonds for example.
The cutting and polishing only takes place in the Developed countries with the abject excuse that only trained educated people can do it. Shades of Colonial Imperialism still is prevalent.
The main market for the finished product is Belgium, Amsterdam and London. The word market is used in the loosest sense. In reality it is a fixed price cartel. In the current credit crunch have you seen huge discounts on the highest quality stones? Thought not.
The profit margins between the uncut stone and the cut and polished is enormous. The price paid to Africa is a pittance, and even then it rarely benefits the people as it either ends up in some dictators Swiss bank account, or some rebel faction appropriates it for their little "war".
By rights Africa ought to be the most prosperous continent in the world, but white man whether acting as a colonial power or as a Commissioner from the EU will always ensure that it is not. Third rate politicians will then salve their conscience by handing out a few GBP millions for Aid and Development, much in the same way that early colonists would hand out mirrors and other baubles to win the trust of the natives.
I have never been to Africa, but was born and brought up in Brazil which is also rich in minerals and the wealth certainly does not trickle down to all the people there either!
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The world needs to a train up, from its brightest young people a global diplomatic corps trancending the national and religious self interests that have dominated international institutions in sofar as they have been set up. in order to deal with the huge problems and tensions from the coming retrenchment that will last for decades .
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Yes, the increasingly worrying thing about this crisis is the extent to which our political elite, of all persuasions, fails to grasp the fundamental nature of the problem and, moreover, the remedies needed to fix it.
We're over-indebted; spectacularly, breathtakingly over-indebted. Individuals. companies and the State have to pay off their respective debts. We have to learn to live within our means, including levels of borrowing/lending that are sustainable within the context of sustainable economic growth (tricky enough as mankind's era of cheap energy is about to draw to a close ... but that's another [scary] story).
The problem is that our politicians don't know how to break this bad news to the voters, nor how to handle the potentially ugly consequences (let's be honest, coming down from Gordon Brown's tower - a debt-fuelled high life - is going to be agony for some folk). Furthermore, ironically, the Government is, er, wracking up public sector debt to unprecedented levels which - hey ho - we're going to have repay at some point. Our kids ain't going to be pleased about that for the next 10/20 years.
There's no escaping the fact that our economy and, so, our society and way of life all have to be restructured. However, our political elite lack the substance, skills, knowledge, attitude, experience and - above all - courage to develop and implement strategies for dealing with a wholesale restructuring of our way of life.
It's this continuing political cowardice that I find so shameful.
British politics has been ravaged over the past few decades to the point that both the 'trivialisation' and 'professionalisation' of our political system could be our undoing. Today British politics is hard to distinguish from the dire, shallow, headline-grabbing, get-rich-quick, 'celebrity culture' that fascinates so many of us. Today, we have no statesmen in politics.
Hence, the piecemeal, inconsistent, half-baked, tactical nature of Government initiatives (for that is all they are ...) thus far. The exhortations for us all to go out and borrow like hell again to buy new cars and consumer stuff is ludicrous: it epitomises our politicians' abject failure to front up to our predicament.
For as long as we lack a politician with the courage and will to tell it as it as and gird his - and our - loins for the unpleasant, restructuring task ahead then the situation in this country will get a whole lot worse, before it gets better.
We're still heading down fast.
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The world has, in my opinion, NOT yet got the seriousness of this crisis nor the cost or consequences of the solutions.
We, as a global people, have some soul searching to do as to to what we believe
abundance and prosperity are - what is the Good Life?
Material wealth is OK, even good, in balance but we over consumed and did so on credit and in a way that was not sustainable.
The 'New Capitalism' which is to be born MUST take into account at its core, environmental concerns and also social principles so that products and services are in harmony with the environment whilst still allowing companies to make a profit and individuals and families to flourish.
Resource efficiency, labour efficiency, global welfare and some (but probably never full) wealth distribution are required, to allow us to live in harmony with the planet whilst still creating wealth and prosperity and allowing for human ingenuity and entrepreneurialism.
Idealistic I know - that is why I feel there is still more pain to come.
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Interesting interview Mr Peston.
It looks into the future.
But we must not forget the past.
Runaway property spirals must never happen again.
They always crash.
The U.S. one crashed.
The U.K. one crashed.
Result...disaster.
When will we ever learn?
And to what extent was bankers' possible negligence, fraud or reckless incompetence involved.
David Cameron is demanding an inquiry, (not the FSA, but police or fraud squad involvement).
It's not rocket science...property spirals always crash.
But this one has ended with one big difference...tens of thousands of super-rich bankers.
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#22
A blank book!
Really!
The large expanse of land that is all green, that's the jungle. Looks a bit untidy doesn't it? Yeah, cut down the trees and build a car plant. Honest, carry on... The reduced concentrations of oxygen in the air won't be a problem, obviously.
I'll not continue.
Try tuning into the BBC World Service Radio for a few weeks. You'll learn.
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Martin Wolf reflected so much of what has been blogged here over the months. The problem is one generated in the English speaking world and based on debt.
At the same time the person in charge of this English speaking Union of countries says all that is required is "confidence to get us through".
I would suggest that what will get us through is a major rethink of the size of government and welfare in the UK. The private sector will never get its costs down to compete in a world economy until the government starts taking a very drastic reduction in the available cake.
That is something that Gordon Brown can never have the ability to deliver as he still he cannot admit that his policies and those of other English speaking countries during the last 11 years have been the cause of the problem.
He and his philosophy is irrelevant to the economic future of the UK.
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I only agree with one thing: that the world changed on August the 9th and there's no going back. What comes next will be different and in some ways, radically different.
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Unfortunately all moving along as expected.
Politically - Fear then anger, sullen resistance. Resigned struggle soon. Brief blip up due to tribe huddling around leader before realising leader useless in face of problems. Targeting of migrant workers operating legally. Xenophobia. Brown and the Brown Ring slowly realising no manipulated economic salvation. What to do with 3 million unemployed, 'voluntary' work on less than the minimum wage. Still no effective focus on buffering impact for individuals to help transition to new landscape. New government in 2010 if present one lasts that long. Civil unrest from those who have not lost their jobs but think they might. Due to disappear as they lose their jobs or feel safe. Little unrest from those who have lost their jobs, neutured. Public resistance to Big Bro policies to grow as they realise that what they didnt really object to in the good days might be used against them in the bad days. Problem - it is easier to resist at the start than at the end. Similar processes in other countries.
Economically - Establishment waking up to process. Bubble gone, Blub blub. Inkling of downsizing needed, no option. Old school values starting to come to fore. Growth in due course to come from higher efficency, ie less overheads, high tech driven. Prospect of reduced tax revenues from rduced size of economy and move to ditch overheads, but nobody dare talk about public sector reduction yet. Financial stimulus not to be effective till 2010. Residual economy functioning, in growth in some areas. But must endlessly concentrate on bubble brains problems. Bubble brains and bubble driven businesses still in lobotomy. 3rd world to suffer. Old world and New world to lose a few toys but still be fed. China to concentrate on domestic situation and tech knowhow growth and reject bizarre idea should help Old and New worlds. Emissions reducing as global economy reduces.
No, still all moving along. Process unstoppable. Unfortunately.
Media attention on 15 percent of population, not 85 percent of population.
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#6 Somali-pirate
I read in this months Country Homes & Interiors that you can buy a bath with gold leaf exterior for £5,750. Also FT still printing How to Spend it. Way to go yet Somali-pirate.
Oh and another plus we could do with – better weather
#9 CoralBloom
I went to uni to study plant science – I was going to breed crops and feed the world – I gradually realised it was not the lack of good science and ability to provide cheap food that was the problem – it was the political and social will to do it – the food is there – the food was there in Ireland in the famine – there was just not the will to give it to the feckless Irish – and now we would rather sell arms to Africa
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#26
That's my point. You don't find a diamond dealer in Europe living in a tent, his kids out dragging drums of water back home.
The greedy folk at top seem to never notice the human tragedies left in their wake.
Diamonds, gold. The free-marketeers insist the trickle down effect exists.
Does it?
And while the jolly goes on at Davos, the economy disintegrates, and the greedy will look for new markets.
It just has to stop. We need accountability, a decent mechanism of redistribution nationally and globally.
Davos should be co-ordinating this for the benefit of everyone. Not just for friends on the ski slopes or on a round of golf. No more tax havens, no more easy money spirited awa from weaker countries.
This economic mess is a disaster for so many. It is also a massive opportunity to make sure the new economy is a good, balanced economy.
It won't happen. This mirrored Animal Farm is just to comfortable for some people.
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2 things I would like to discuss - protectionism and governments ability to fight recession.
I'm watching coverage of the former on BBC news right now. They are all hanging on the 'British jobs for British workers' and things are getting emotional. However with the European open labour market to which the UK subscribes, such sentiments are both against globalisation and may even be illegal. Also I noted with interest yesterday listening to a protestor interviewed on radio 2, when asked 'so you think that even though a foreign worker can do the same job as you at the same quality but cheaper, you should still get the job?' - after a long pause the response given was broadly about giving british jobs to the british etc.
We need to be mindful that this work went out to tender, businesses from all over Europe applied and the best was selected, an open and fair process. What the protestors need to remember is that if by some protectionist measure, the refineries are forced to use more expensive British contractors, costs will rise and ultimately redundancies will result.
Can the government fight recession? only in a limited way. Notice that Gordon B and company are 'drip feeding' little packages of help here and there. In my opinion these efforts are designed to slow the speed onset of recession, but that it will still happen. Traders on the FTSE also seem to be trading very carefully to prevent further collapses with the FTSE 100 hovering around its new level of about 4000 points. We need to be mindful however that we are at the very beginning of a recession, much worse is to come and the government cannot halt a global tide. I think Gordon Brown knows this and is comming to the end of what he can reasonably do to halt the tide.
Talking it up is the remaining weapon the government has but again this can only change sentiment in a minimal way. The plus for Gordon is that even in the deepest part of the forthcomming recession, he can claim that if he hadn't done all the things he did, things would be even worse. A good catch 22 as it will be impossible to prove either way.
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#32
Sounds like Affluenza to me.
Has anyone told Oliver James his data analysis is standing up?
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32 skynine
Brown is trapped in his history. His policies were not sound but he cannot admit it and stay in office. Yet that is quite clearly what he wants to do. His policies were clearly unsound from the simple fact if there was a Take 2 there would be different ones. Therefore we face a botched job until a GE. Obama has the advantage of not being tied to past decisions, he remains human so in the face of the problems the honeymoon may be short. At least he is dismantling some of Bushs policy. Brown is not correct to say history is not destiny. He cannot escape his history so it is his destiny, it is a continum.
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To me a global solution should be inclusive for the whole world's benefit not cherry picking or exploiting the other half, otherwise the new world order is just a rerun of the past.
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Very slightly off-topic, but Gordon Brown's gushing guff in today's Daily Telegraph epitomises the extent to which he is out of touch with the realities of this crisis and the nation's mood.
Does Gordon Brown really believe that he can rally the British people around him with appeals to our 'Spirit of the Blitz'? Is he mad?
In no other walk of life would someone even begin to get away with Brown's arrogance. It's like a general having crafted a plan that ended with the massacre of his army then standing in the middle of the battlefield appealing to his remaining troops to rally behind him for another go. If the general didn't leave the battlefield at that point, there'd be a mutiny.
Can Brown not realise how utterly ludicrous he looks and sounds these days as he spews out abstract nonsense about the situation and how he/we are supposed to be dealing with it? I just turn off the wireless/TV whenever he appears; the moments I do attend to make me cringe.
Hardly the stuff of victory over adversity eh? If the situation was not so terribly serious, I'd laugh at him.
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#6 Somali Pirate
Enjoyed the post, lots of points resonated in there, entertaining too.
The system needs to be re-balanced, it looks pretty grotesque at the moment as illustrated by your post.
I think it needs to try to take the best from both systems though, there is no doubt that capitalism brings technological advance and innovation better than more social systems. But in the extreme it looks very ugly.
Socialism on the other hand in the extreme looks very bland and stale.
It should be possible to capture aspects of both fundamantal systems such that there is both opportunity for technological advance and diversity and social justice.
I think the key will lie in a fundamental re-appraisal of 'what is prosperity'.
Is it a gold plated bath and owning 3 huge homes?
Or is it something else...I have my own ideas about this...another day maybe.
Jericoa
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For supercalmdown
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article5614919.ece
is this close enough to nationalisation of the housebuilders for you?
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37 cdc280
'We need to be mindful that this work went out to tender, businesses from all over Europe applied and the best was selected, an open and fair process.'
That is why Brown can do nothing than give hot air out, his comments - such as british jobs for british workers - lack substance. The UK is a member of the EU so EU migrants can work here. The only real weapon is the current low value of Sterling. The importing of skill bases external to the UK however can lead to the collapse of the domestic skill base damaging the UK. On a good day the problem is obsured because there is enough work around, on bad day the work moves to the cheapest quote, usually outside the country. The only move other than currency is to restructure the EU so the differentials that can be exploited are limited, a nightmare. Currency is the easiest solution. Being poor helps. The migrant issue has been happily exploited in the good times. The licences issued for non EU migrant workers continues to be high and the only solution is making the education proicess easier for key worker skills, which the government has failed to do. It is quite simple - a bursary sytem is needed, the cost is low compared with importing workers and putting UK kids on the dole. The issue is continually ducked because it requires grasping hold of elitism. ie not all training and eduction is equal so not all funding should be equal.
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When we start coming out of this mess Germany will still have Siemens, Porsche and all its other great industrial companies and the Finns will still own Nokia and the French will still own Alcatel and Renault.
Britain on the other hand will come out with nothing.
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A big part of the solution to this crisis lies in ignoring Robert Peston and the other self obsessed financial commentators. These idiots fail to realise that despite the unforgivable mess the speculators and politicians have made for us all to flounder in, it has been made infinitely worse by the endless reworking of the problems in the national media. They've never been in business, never had people relying on them for their livelihoods, never been faced directly with the prospect of opening up against a backdrop of negative speculation about the future. I suspect RP's fan base are sheltering behind a similar screen to the one he enjoys at the BBC. These people have got to be gagged for the national good. In the name of free speech they have irresponsibly created a collapse in the confidence of business and individuals; it's criminal. Any fool can be a commentator, try rolling up your sleeves, Robert et al, and ry to do something useful, then you'll feel what it's like at coal face and believe me it's frightening. So grow up and start acting with some consideration for the vast majority who don't benefit one jot from your cosy blinkered musings, you're irrelevant.
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That was indeed a fascinating discussion, and reinforces a message that has been emerging with increasing clarity of late - the need for total change.
In the West, the big change that we need is a move away from the assumption of credit. Government (and almost everyone else, thus far) seems to think that we need to restore prior levels of credit. This is mistaken. On the contrary, we need to move away from the assumption of credit.
When someone wishes to purchase, say, a car, the assumption is that he or she will borrow the money to buy it. When someone decides to start a business, the assumed first step is to approach the bank for a loan. This has been reinforced by a tax system which favours debt capital over equity, because interest expense is tax-deductible whereas dividends are not. The extreme case of this preference for debt over equity is represented by 'private equity', a euphemism which means 'no equity at all, total debt'. Government borrows even in boom times, albeit ascribing this borrowing to investment rather than current spending.
It was not always like this. If someone wanted to buy, say, a car, or a refrigerator, he saved until he could afford it. When starting a business, a person would put his own capital into it, and perhaps raise further capital from family members, then reinvest profits and grow on an equity basis.
We need to move away from thinking that you cannot start or run a business without debt, or that the appropriate way to fund a major purchase was credit. We need to encourage new business formation based on accumulated equity.
And the only way in which this will happen is if government stops taking away most of the surpluses that small businesses generate - this starves them of the ability to accumulate equity capital. So the best step that can be taken right now is to introduce big tax allowances for SMEs provided that the accumulated earnings are retained in the business rather than spent by the owner of the business. Time to get back to saving and to equity.
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Do you want to know ...?
Well here are a few predictions. Some things getting worse before they get better. Others presenting opportunities.
It was ever thus.
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Did Martin Wolf predict the crash. NO
Why listen to him now. He works off the wrong premise and he is an apologist for NuLabour. Stopped reading his 'Stuff' ages ago.
He's as bad as that Samuel Britain.
Nothing but deluded scribblers.
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I agree with Dread @ #2
We need to invest in poorer countries and increase the flow of credit . I think only nationalised banks can do this.
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re 15
you hit the nail on the head !
if the commissions were paid over the length of the mortgage, perhaps the urge to send prices up would relent !
those payments can only be justified when the loan has finally been paid and not before.
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It appears the UK aims to be a leader in purchasing 'toxic debt' for the sole reason that GB wants his name writ large when history is written as being first in solving this depression.
Can we as taxpayers and concerned citizens get them to slow down until they actually know what they are putting on to the bulging UK's liability list?
Read 31/1 Times and there is the spectre that some lucky mortgage holders will be paying £0/month because of some ill thought out small print clause in some mortgages.
How many other small print get out clauses and exceptions are there in the £4.5 Trillion worth of debt on the banks' books?
I am sure that 'due diligence' is being thought of as an 'optional extra' to be sacrified on the alter of GB's wish to be first.
The UK can not afford to waste any further Billions until we actually know the forensic details of the toxic debt that is being unloaded by the banks.
Sanity says it is surely better to know exactly what we are getting than just be possibly right and first?
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Oh dear spetmologer, what world are you travelling in?
Obviously you've never been involved in social care. If you did you'd realise that foreign workers don't speak English very well at all, and have even less understanding of British culture.
Better than nothing, but I'd rather see proper rates of pay and a skilled English speaking woorkforce. Wait until you get old and then you'll see.
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I see GB is saying today there is no point in targetting currency levels.
Sterling was on an upward trend, what now?
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203. kikidread
Sorry if you have been offended by my previous post , it was not the intent nor was it intended to be negative hence the apposite in the comment.
My mind is boggled at the eclectic selection and fit of lyrics to seemingly unrelated subject matter - thought provoking.
It's an interesting diversion, though for those I don't immeidately recognise it would be nice to know who wrote them in case I would like to explore their work further - lyrics maketh the music for me.
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They said "there will be no winners" - how can this be?
It is basically a zero-sum game. Money changes hands from one person to another - it is not destroyed. E.g. if you buy some junk bonds and then find out they are worthless, you can say you have lost your money. However, the person you bought them from has now got the money so that to total amount of money in the system remains constant: you have lost, but they have gained.
When billions are pumped into banks and businesses, we should ask where is it all going!?
I think someone is profiteering from this whole thing, but they are obviously keeping it very quite!
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Robert everybody seems to have missed the fact that the Chinese leadership is comprised largely of Professional Engineers.
http://www.china.org.cn/english/features/leadership/86673.htm
Engineers create the means for wealth to flourish whilst others maintain it. For China this requires infrastructure building and its 'political' Engineers are pragmatists.
Contrast this with the rest of the world and their political leadership. They are all maintainers of wealth resting on their laurels.
This will no doubt mean little to you as you fall into the category of wealth maintainer or observer, you simply don't get it.
Everything WILL change when we too see our own political Engineers at the helm rebuilding our crumbling infrastructure. It will never happen!
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Interesting stuff Robert but I think you could have been more inquisitorial.
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Robert
Yesterday you requested a new ring tone on radio5, I think my suggestion could do for both you and GB.
How about 'Always look on the bright side' maybe GB will adopt it as the UK's secret USP to get us out of this mess?
yours irrelevantly..
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# 47 Friendlycard
Yes, yes yes...
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I asked this question on Stephanie Flanders's blog as it is strictly an economics question, but nobody seems to have a rational answer, huge apologies for cross posting, but perhaps you guys and girls can give me an answer.
When will the adage "when in a hole stop digging" come into play?
The whole World seems to have undertaken to dig faster when everyone acknowledges that the aim is to be out of the hole.
At sometime the digging has to stop.
(for those of you not following my point digging equates to transferring the assets of the prudent to the profligate [and downright fraudulent?] or from savers to 'banks'.)
The nirvana that is aimed at is increased savings ratios in a balanced economy, but the incentive to save is being crushed faster and more furiously now than it has ever been in history(? - possible exaggeration.)
Answers on one side of A4 - if you can get it right you will make oodles of dosh!
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Tigerjay / somali pirate / alexander Curzon / Rahere / many others (you know who you are)
Re starting a political party.
A part of me would love to do that Cromwellian style and shake up the establishment, hence my enthusiasm.
Somali pirate has a point though which does bring me back to earth.
The pragmatist engineer in me away from the idealist suggests a more measured course, an extension of what we are doing anyway by way of our and many others (you know who you are) regular contributions.
My suggestion is not a political party but a formalised lobby group.
There are many intelligent and more importantly experienced people here who are ahead of the curve and the media in terms of analysis of what is happening and what would be sensible to do next.
Time and time again I see posts here that are realised a few weeks or a month or two later, analysis that I do not see in the news.
I also get a sense sometimes that ideas expressed here seem to emerge from the mouths of politicians a few days later..probably just co-incidence / people thinking in similar ways but it would be nice to think otherwise.
Both politicians and media are hamstrung to see what we can see by their very nature, they are professional politicians and journalists. No undeserved disrespect to them but you have to be on the ground up to your armpits in grease to 'feel' what is going on.
The politicians ambitions within fortress Westminster and the journalists 'impartiality' detract from that required level of ' grease up to your armpits' understanding.
A formal lobby group, a collection of 'wise men and women if you will' should enable us collectively to do much more than we are currently trying to individually here, noble though that it, it is not very effective.
Although I would like to think we are making some kind of difference in a small way as we are, I am sure with a bit of organisation we could do more.
I have a full time job and I have my young family also, I don't have much spare time beyond those commitments to do the 'nuts and bolts' of creating a formal lobby group, otherwise I would.
I would hope somebody out there has different circumstances and is better placed to take that on.
It could be the cyber equivalent of the bohemian 'cafe' culture of the early 1900's.
We could meet up for real also, agree press releases of some description by consensus between us etc rather than spraying our views 'machine gun' like all over the net. No doubt some of the bullets hit but one large precision guided weapon is usually much more effective in achieving its goals.
On a lighter note in order to get some publicity, modern society being what it is one of us would need to marry a premier league footballer or dress up as superman and hang from the hands of big ben or look good in a bikini / trunks or pretend we were deranged in some way and go onto big brother or hook up with Paris Hilton or Jordan in order to get general attention.
Anybody like to volunteer to be Paris Hiltons new best friend fot ITV? AC maybe.
I will post this on Paul Masons blog also, as shamefully, considering his insight comments are less cluttered there.
A volunteer who's circumstances permit him / her to look into setting up a formal lobby group would be a good starting point a core of 2 or 3 people could then communicate 'off blog' to get the ball rolling
(there goes the engineer in me again).
Hope to correspond and maybe even see you all soon.
If we want to get a message out there (as we clearly do or we would not spend the time we do here) may as well do it more effectively dont you think?
Just a suggestion.
Jericoa
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Robert
All credit to the dedicated posters on this blog. There's anger, yes, but there are contributions that should be heard. Afterall, we are being led through a national emergency not seen in generations by a Prime Minister who had no elected mandate for the job and a Business Secretary who frankly admits that he doesnt have the answers. The Chancellor comes across as functionary but not much more.
Shoot me down in flames but I dont think I heard your contributors give any real time to the issue that got us into this mess. I think Martin Wolf said briefly that the financial system had failed badly but all was moved swiftly forward to the 'big issues' - get credit moving ( yes, ofcourse), protect the emerging economies, rebalance the world output, dialogue with the Chinese, defeat western consumerism, change everyone's habits - you know, all those things no one is going to wave the magic wand at for years.
Take China - they have their own massive problem of redistributing wealth to their huge peasant hinterland. They need to create a truly open and free market with which we can all trade with. They have social and democratic constraints, all of which create unequal competition. You cannot change all of this overnoght. Otherwise, there would be revolution.
What can be done now ( other than the stimulus and fire-fighting) is to address the issue that got us here - the irresponsible intermediation of global capital through Wall Street, The City and the Banks. Put right the regulatory incompetence and lack of oversight so that confidence can be restored. If it was bad and irresponsible business for foreign reserves to be filtered to feed an irresponsible US/UK housing bubble, talk about responsible lending and lack of due diligence in the intermediation process.
In the 30s everyone learned the lessons from greed - we should be doing it now, as well as making those responsible account for their actions.
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Fascinating stuff. I find myself nodding along with the idea that we need a completely different model for the economy, but I'm not at all sure I can free myself of the old assumptions. We mocked Brown for thinking he's abolished boom and bust - so we weren't surprised by the bust. But do we now really think he was right, and that there will be no boom? My guess is that there really will be winners: companies starting up now, not burdened by debt, which will spawn the next generation of billionaires (temporary or otherwise...)
Like so many other people, I thought house prices were crazy - but now find myself wondering what kind of a mortgage I should get when I next buy a house. We've developed our attitudes to property, for example, over generations, and I'm not sure we will ever kick the habit of feeling we need to 'get on the ladder'. And if we don't make that change then prices will, one day, rise, and bying a house on credit will (for a time) turn out to have been a good idea. I can't help feeling we'll be listening to people boring on about house prices rising in, say, 2022 - and hearing them moan about a slump in 2025.
Let's just hope not everyone is as stupid as me. Then again, watching the pace at which businesses are closing down, perhaps society as a whole needs a few useful, debt-loving idiots to keep it afloat.
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Lessons going forward for us in Britain to learn:
#we are (and have been for a long time)living beyond our means and cannot afford to do so any longer
#politicians have failed us but with our tacit blessing provided they maintained the image of prosperity
#we need to properly invest in our children.
#our welfare state is too generous and bloated and cannot be sustained at current levels
#we are not a world power anymore, nor have been since half way through the second world war, so stop acting like one. Fight our own battles not everyone else's
#America and Europe are not allies but competitors (remember France and the USA debating whether to help us or the Argentinians during the Falklands war?)
#China and the other returning economic giants have no interest in bailing us out and will seek to bury us economically if they can
#if we want to maintain British jobs then buy British for goodness sake
#we cannot compete with low tech manufacturing countries unless we are prepared to have their living standards too
#invest heavily in high tech manufacturing (together with our children) to focus on what the developing nations cannot (yet) do eg aero engines, gas turbines, power generating, sophisticated chemical and drug manufacturing etc
#Invest in infrastructure, roads, public works etc which will last generations (and don't subcontract the work abroad)
#lose the public sector gold plated pensions (another ticking time bomb every government has been too afraid to tackle)
#hold a public enquiry into the current banking scandal, bringing the key players to book and fully expose the failings of not just the banking CEO's but the FSA, BoE and the Chancellor (like that will ever happen) Heads must roll our we will see it happen again
#forget about social engineering and political correctness, let society evolve naturally
#pass laws to make our politicians personally accountable for the mess or prosperity they leave behind them
#be proud to be British, we can improve
#thrift and hard work should be rewarded, spendthrifts and shirkers left to their own devices
#our current political system has failed (how about a lottery for the second chamber from the electorate between 18-80 years old? That way we get a true cross section of society, black/white, Christian/Muslim, straight/gay, male/female in direct proportion to the real world. If selected you have to serve)
#Government expenditure to be no greater then total tax revenue in any year
I could go on but until we are prepared to take to the streets nothing is likely tpo change. Heaven help us and our children if we don't wake up and smell the coffee.
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61 John from Hendon
When will stop digging?
Following GE. Brown trying to support history, trying to not destroy his policy to date, ie modify not scrap. Has to be new broom, not tied to old policy and storylines. Brown determined to stay until bitter end.
Re money, not interested in loads of money. What is the fascination with loads of money. To earn loads of money means expansion of trading base, ie steadily higher risk, plus employing boatloads of people, corporation structure, and associated loss of flexibility and responsiveness. We still are in strong growth here but will limit voluntarily.
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Why are we still referring to the recession in the future tense? As far as I know we've been in one for some time, which is a good thing, because logically speaking, it will end sooner.
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#34. glanafon:
So true and so sad.
It is a real disappointment to me as to how slight the scratch has to be for that most British of diseases, Xenophobia to rise to the surface.
My wife who happens to be identifiably non caucasian though a EU citizen since birth and resident here for 25 years (tax and NI paying but unable to vote in UK elections, not eligible for many state benefits in the event of unemployment or illness contrary to perceived wisdom) was treated to a union rep at her company opining that British jobs were for British people and that her and a number Spanish and Polish collegues were to blame for the ills of the UK economy and should go home.
It's racism pure and simple given a wafer thin veneer of patriotism in a tough time.
That way lies protectionism, fascism and the concentration camp.
It is an interesting point of history that the BNP/union agitators may like to think about, that concentration camps were also used for labour organisers to prevent disruption of the national Socialist state machinery.
#53 - what you desire would be nice. But until as a nation we understand that providing care to our relatives is valuable and therefore costly to provide, which will mean that instead of a more nice holidays, more gadgets and working out where we want our 2nd home when we sell grannys' house, we will actually have to pay more for it either though taxes or savings.
Costs of services are heavily dependent on wage costs - if we want more and better we have to get used to paying for it again and doing without to provide.
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I thought Martyn Wolf was spot on in his analysis of Britain's position but it doesn't seem to get much of an airing on BBC.Is it because we are now supposed to do the 'positive' thinking which is the PM's latest wheeze?I wonder how long it took the spin doctors to come up with the optimism message. They probably think we're all daft enough to believe that any truthful outline of the UK as the most vulnerable of the G7 countries is unpatriotic. Anyone who disagrees is 'talking the country down.'
If it wasn't so depressing it would be funny.
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55. At 11:50am on 31 Jan 2009, Whistling_Neil wrote:
"203. kikidread
It's an interesting diversion, though for those I don't immeidately recognise it would be nice to know who wrote them in case I would like to explore their work further - lyrics maketh the music for me"
+
The first place to go to should be Lee Scratch Perry's website and listen to the podcasts
http://www.upsetter.net/scratch/
He was the producer who invented Reggae music and taught Bob Marley to sing slower so people could understand him. Most roots reggae is a cultural conscious meditation and positive vibration.
The lyrics sound much better with music although they may be heavy on the drum and bass for your listening pleasure
(most rap lyrics are on the web if you google them)
No offence taken sometimes people bang each others head a little bit when suggesting different views and idea's
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68 whistling neil
I'm white anglo saxon so are the rest of the family. That means we are immigrants, just not recent ones. The rise of comments against migrants or those seen as not mainstream culture etc is one of the most disturbing things coming to the fore. Those who should know better dwell on the issue because it is easy pickings and emotive. Does not solve anything.
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#65
Like the list generally but one missing part of the NWO is the removal of our seeming obsession with rights.
Blair talked about Rights and Responsibilities but in reality all we got were an endless steam of rights - our responsibility seemed to end at making sure we knew our 'rights'.
To my view what we need to review as society is the concept of:
Responsibilities leading to Rights.
e.g. I have the responsibility not to cause harm to others and in return I get the right to be protected from being harmed by others.
If I choose to harm others then my associated right is voided.
Eye for an Eye which lead to the principle of moral hazard.
So for Bankers - their responsibility to society is to sustainably provide funding for fair growth and fair profit - and in return they get the right to bonuses. When the abrogate this responsbility then their right to the fruits of that labour are forfeit i.e. all they obtained as a result is forfeit to society (bonuses, property, cash and shares). Failure to live up to the responsibilities needs suitable penalties otherwise there is no incentive to not do it again.
No complete but a thought,
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Part of the problem is that the best strategy for countries which have vast natural resources and little true need to import, apart mainly from oil, is isolationism (at least on the IMPORT side) . Viz China, Russia, USA, Australia, Canada etc. Thus these countries will attempt to keep exports going ... which they will manage because the chinese in particular have wiped out our UK suppliers in many areas. They will however block imports by every conceivable means (a la france). This means that a poxy island trading nation headed by one G. Clown is whistling in the wind about keeping global free markets moving ... forget it!
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Well there we have it folks, at least they saved the banks!
More civil unrest to come, as the recession deepens I'm willing to bet something nasty happens to the boat they are all staying on.
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Oh dear .. British jobs has been the last thing on a corporate executives mind for decades now.
Corporate shareholder pleasure, has always chased lower costs which more frequently than not targetted labour.
We now have the situation where there is next to no manufacturing in the U.K as that was off-shored in the 80's.
We have next to no raw material export because appart from expensive to dig up coal, we have nothing to export. That was the 80's and 90's.
We have little of a personal service industry now because it is all too cheap to have off-shored call centres, off-shore back office support and processing centres, and off-shored information systems development and maintenance. That's the 90's and 00's for you.
And now that great saviour of all things GDP, the financial services sector has been shown to be a hall of mirrors and has like the proverbial house of cards, collapsed in a heap.
And apparently the politicians in their "we didn't see this coming because we are idiots" fashion, want us all to shy away from any protectionist thoughts, even though they are doing it by the Billions of bank notes they are injecting into whatever they deem to be of critical (read highly political) importance.
Globalisation was a devaluer of domestic worth and a devaluer of quality. People do not want quality anymore, they have become accustomed to cheap.
Ask yourself this, do you really feel better off in your 20 quid jeans these days than you were 20 years ago in your (adjusted for inflation) 100 quid jeans.
Most I speculate would say a clear no.
But with such little exportable business conducted within the U.K now, surely for us protectionism should be a God send. The whole World could slap tarrifs on all products and have not one impact on the U.K since we do not export any of them.
This is what poor governance over the last 50 years has done for Britain. We consider Margaret Thatcher to have been one of our greatest Prime-Ministers, and yet how much of the British economy declined as an exporting force. Thatcher saw the creation of a World financial centre in London as key to a 'new economy'. Well, looks as if that 'new economy' is going to bankrupt us, and leave many millions of us with no stake in our society.
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#70. kiki_dread
Thanks for the info and link, off to explore.
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#66. glanafon wrote:
"When will stop digging?
(ans: ) Following GE"
But the probable alternative government will be made up of people from a party even more wedded to consumerism and in consequence debt and under whose watch the matters that have got out of hand were instigated!
I could say: which general election? 2009/2010 or 2014/2015? Frankly David Cameron frightens me just as much as Gordon Brown!
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Peston transcendent
Who?
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From one of my favourite columns
And, a biblical referenceWhere was Joseph when we needed him? Well, actually, he was still with us as recently as 2003, but who was listening?Don't say we weren't warned.
Providence and Fair Shares
ed
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77 john from hendon
Which GE - 2010
You have to live in hope. Books will be bad so will concentrate minds. Hopefully. Otherwise emigrate. PS I'm not being cocky when I say ok here. Has to hold up, and we had a kicking in the last recession. Mood generally likely sullen in 2009 dont let it get to you.
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This whole thing has been driven by banks greed and exporting dodgy debt / risk to insurance companies. This is not the time, but in about 18 moths time governments around the world and particular in the UK & America should say to the banks, if you lend anybody more than 3.5 -4 times their annual income and the debtor cant pay tough!!! We (the state) will not evict people via the courts and then after rehouse them. You (the banks) will have to enter into an agreement with the debtor based on their real income.
Radical i know but overnight banks and jumped up building societies will return to sensible lending (3-4 times over annual income) and we will hopefully see and end to boom bust built on bankers greed.
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"EVERYTHING MUST CHANGE"
The trouble is we do yet have even an Agenda to discuss what must change, why and what are the priorities?
Here I place just a few topics which will be thought about by many, but probably not discussed, never mind implemented.
The background to these thoughts is that I believe it is now inevitable that the "public will awake" and that Nationalism and stuff globalisation will be big themes, when it it comes to British Jobs for British Workers. We are after all, an island so strongly roused to Nationalism, if push comes to shove.
1) The Public Sector ( particularly Qungoes) needs radical and massive finanicial surgery to the tune of at least bringing costs back ( considering inflation first) to 1997 levels
2) National Insurance needs to be abolished and a simple income tax regime brought in which is transparent.
3) Anyone claiming benefits for more than six months must report for social work in the Community. Anyone not working for over 12 months must wear special orange overalls. Interesting?
4) All those on index linked pensions in Parliament and the Civel service have them capped and stopped where they are now, no more index linking
5) Cut Parliament down to 300 -400 MPs all with completely transparent CVs and finances
6) Place on Pubilc trial all Bankers and others who have called for rights issues, knowing that their Banks were either going down the pan, or insolvent
7) Scrap the IT scheme for the NHS, scrap Trident and the rtwo big Navy aircraft carriers planned
8) Bring back National Service, male and female
9) Ensure new laws to keep women from having 8 embroyos born, after having six children already.
10) Make accomodation available for single Mothers with one child to live with other single Mothers, not go o the head of the housing list.
11) Allow Councils to build as many more Council Houses, not for sale, as possible
12) New work or employment only to resident British people first.
13) Cut any benefits or other payments after a max of six months to anyone who has the opportunity to return to their country of origin, if they have insufficent funds to survive here
14) Massive change to schools and Universities to encourage degrees in sciences and IT in subjects which are required by Employers. No more social design on education but use education to allow the young to become truly marketable in any work place of the future.
15) Have a reforendum in Scotland to consider full independence, then stop the Barnet formula
16) Insist that the Olympics can only proceed by having a financial levy on all Countries taking part
17) No third runway at Heathrow
18) Demand an election and a Government of National Unity if hung.
19) Sort out the Lords and give back the true sence of "Honourable Member"
20) Jail any Politicians who take bribes or sleaze in any shape or form
21) Identify, then fire then take pensions from the Senior people in the BOE, the FSA and the Treasury who caused this debacle. We must have accountability and real "political blood" if ever this broken society can strart to rebuild
22) Any immigrants must speak English and swear allegience to the Crown. Help all those of other races now here and paying their taxes, to integrate with the British Way of Life and participate, white brown and black together. We need a felling of National spirit, pride and hope and Gordon Brown does simply not cut the cake and must go.
23) Have a reforendum on joining the Euro, or getting our Sovereignty back. The British have truly lost the way and no longer know who they are, particularly the English.
24) Kill off Political correctness, particularly in Social work and in Town Halls
25) Change the tax system back to supporting hetrosexual marriages, male and female, supporting their own children.
26) Build a tax free zone of innovation for New Entrepreneurs in places such as Newcastle or Glasgow or in South Wales. Really TAX FREE for first five years.
27) Cut BBC licence fee in half, but make it totally independent once more from Government Politicians.
28) Fire Jonathan Ross
29) Bring, morals, decency, justice, fair play and local empowerment back to our Society.
We need someone to trust and we have no one left in Leadership anywhere, who we can consider. Our politics has to "trust" at the grass roots again , local decisions by local people, de centralize completely.
I could go on............
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Still No Clues of a Bottom for Stocks
;-)ed
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I share relanceman's (52) concern at the amount of toxic debt that the UK government has taken over on behalf of taxpayers. When Roger Carr said words to the effect that there was an increasing understanding of why it was necessary to underpin the banks by taking over the risk of their bad debts, he was whistling in the wind. I think that the opposite is true.
These debts will be a dead weight on the UK economy for years to come. As private debts the UK government did not need to take over the risk. In my opinion it would have been better to have let at least some of the banks fail and to have taken over only their retail functions.
It is unlikely that sterling will be strong enough to bear the strain, so it will not only be future taxpayers who will suffer, but savers, pension holders and anyone else who has securities denominated in sterling. Prudent savers might well end up paying for the imprudence of others, as high rates of sterling inflation return for several years.
Iceland has been obliged to take a different course by refusing to accept responsibility for the debts of its failed banks and seeking to join the Eurozone and abandon its own currency. It will be interesting to see whether or not this alternative approach works better in the longer term.
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Before the government agrees to buy any CDO etc, the bank selling should be forced to provide an inventory of EXACTLY what they hold in total. This does not mean it need to be valued at this stage, merely that we can know what the holdings are before these sleazeballs go off arbitraging the market/government price anomalies, because you can bet the farm the goverment will pay too much whenever the chance arises.
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If there is one point in the interview that I can fully agree with then it is Martin Wolf saying that we're not going back to 2006 and that governments - I am thinking particularly of the British one here - have not yet even understood. What I disagree with is that there needs to be a replacement for IMF and World bank. Correct that these are outdated. But they just need to disappear. The least thing that so-called developing countries need is another western instrument to control them. The world will be a better place, politically and economically without stuff like that and I hope this will materialise as the world order reshapes.
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You have to laugh at some of the loony comments on this blog - considering all the problems facing the country to have someone suggesting that Parliament should spend time passing a law preventing a women "having eight embryos born after having 6 children already" cannot be serious - I should also point out that even if Parliament did pass such a law it wouldn't apply in the USA when this particular event happened.
Protectionism would be a disaster for this country - in 2007 the UK exported £220 bn of goods and a further £149 bn in services, giving the lie to those who say we don't export anything anymore. Exports are absolutely vital to our economy and protectionism would lead to huge job losses.
Globalisation is in general a good thing for the UK and indeed the world. What we have learned I hope is that Globalisation needs to apply to regulation as well as free trade.
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#87
I stongly disagree that globalisation is a good thing.
How can it be right to wear a pair of jeans which cost 4 quid from a major supermarket when the maker lives on less than a dollar a day.
How can it be right that strawberries are delivered by a plane so that we can eat unseasonal fruits at enormous cost to our planet.
How can it be right that 20% of the planet consume 80% of its resources.
How can it be right that non-elected huge global companies have more power over a country's people than governments.
How can it be right that pensioners die of cold whilst global energy companies post huge profits.
Stand back, it's not right!
Think local, not global !!!
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Once again we have 'experts' telling us where we have gone wrong and where and how we are going to suffer. Why should we believe ANYTHING they say? These are the 'experts' who let this situation arise in the first place. Why weren't they screaming at the bankers to stop doing what they were doing?
Growth, growth, growth, more money to their mates, the bankers. Must get back to how it was or their kids won't be going to public school anymore and they'll have to sell the second home in France.
A great lesson for any kids watching - grab as much as you can, screw everybody else and the victims will thank you an bail you out.
Where are the opinions of the ordinary folk or Trade Union Leaders?
We need to get on the streets.
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Steven,
No, but if we must have it, yes.Britain has declined in food self-sufficiency from 72% to under 60% over thee last decade or so, although government figures must always be taken with a grain of (imported?) salt. I suspect the present figures are likely to be optimistic, noting the methodology was changed by NuLab ten years ago resulting in an upward revision (who's surprised?)
So, at least GB "needs" the global market until we can feed ourselves again. Maybe the sinking Pound will make growing food here "viable" again?
Meantime, enjoy your Peruvian asparagus (if you can ignore the jetfuel aftertaste)
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#35 grannyfrom...
yes warmer weather would be welcome but forecast is for snow even here in London (anyone want to buy a shipload of LNG by the way)
I think the chance of the UK happily adopting a Cuban approach to anything is slim; it's a shame IMHO but we don't have the rhythm anyway
It would be nice to think that we might at least see the sense in moving to a more German/Scandinavian approach of social capitalism, which clearly works better than our under-regulated Anglo-American approach
#62 jericoa yes I suppose you're describing a new kind of 'think-tank' - one that isn't dominated by the usual suspects or vested interests; it is tempting and might even be some use, but I'm leaning towards trying to set up a rural local economy idea based vaguely on things like the slow food or 100-mile economy ideas; there are a lot of interesting ideas gaining credence, with most of the people involved having decided to do their own thing and forget about mainstream political and economic systems
the only pertinent legislation that our parliament could pass would be a law to abolish the current legislature - both commons and lords - and hold a national debate on what to replace it with, followed by referenda etc; a kind of political Come Dancing competition
it would have been fun to have an alternative Davos though, either as a virtual web-based one, or as a real day conference in a hired hall; it's the sort of thing we used to do as university students; some uni students still very active in issues like the environment but have generally given up on mainstream stuff; it would be fun to set up an alternative G20 conference for April, I must admit
could call it the geesh20 perhaps
afraid I wouldn't be willing to consort with Paris Hilton in order to gain publicity but would be willing to date Kirsty Wark or Stephanie Flanders at a pinch
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Wide awake,
Peace and Localismed
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88, wakeupbritain:"How can it be right that strawberries are delivered by a plane so that we can eat unseasonal fruits at enormous cost to our planet."
90, Ed Iglehart: "Meantime, enjoy your Peruvian asparagus (if you can ignore the jetfuel aftertaste)"
These are only the extreme cases! The area where I now live (southern Spain) produces tomatoes, peppers, aubergines, cucumbers etc for UK supermarkets all year round. Delivered by truck rather than by plane admitedly. So we have the lunacy of transporting what is mostly water from this arid land (the "spaghetti westerns" were made down here) to the UK.
With the pound buying less euros now - can anyone believe that this produce can NOT go up in price?
As Ed says "Britain has declined in food self-sufficiency". The answer from the experts? Stockpile more cars!
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And then there's the matter of flying in the chopped-off genitals of plants to decorate our rites of passage....not even edible flowers
Sanity will prevail (or not)
Slainte! ed
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#92, Ed Iglehart:
Excellent link - thanks!
This is a classic -
"Our model citizen is a sophisticate who, before puberty, understands how to produce a baby, but who at the age of thirty will not know how to produce a potato" -- Wendell Berry
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Crash's idea of globalisation is the UK financial services sector providing the credit for us to buy everyone else's goods.
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There is a fascinating possibility opening up where a clued up US president might actually be of some use to the world. I believe that in recent years humans competitive spirit has been hijacked by banking.
Clever graduates have followed the money and got into finance. All very well. It made perfect sense. Loads of non essential folk making a living and keeping them out of mischief. Until it all went wrong. They have bitten the hand that feeds them.
So what we need is a competitive system that keeps everybody busy but does not lead to financial ruin or war.
Tall order? Not really. What we need to do is indulge ourselves in fundamental science. We could have clever folk in their ivory towers or garrets beavering away till the early hours coming up with hypotheses that need to be experimentally verified. We could then have whole university departments dedicated to teaching the fundamentals to up and coming brains. Then the results of this blue sky research would need to be checked out. Loads more scientists and technicians needed. Schools needed to teach folk how to do real things.
And where does the competitive element come in? Between countries. Between universities. Between researchers.
Once the dead weight tax of bankers is lifted from society then we would be able to afford all sorts of fundamental research. There would be all kinds of spin off along the way too.
And here is the real clever bit. Universities would not be allowed to exploit the results of their researchers. Lets face it. All researchers want to do is research. That is where they get their kicks.
Commercial enterprises should be allowed to raise money and exploit the results. Separately from the universities. If the universities are allowed to do this themselves then all that happens is that state funds end up being used to out compete existing companies.
There. That sorted the banking system out and kept everybody alive and in work.
For my next trick I will see what can be done with the worlds population explosion.
Apologies for the lack of apostrophes by the way. This blog does not allow them..
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Recession? what recession.. .. there is no recession
how much it is going to cost us(taxpayers!) for WEF, that including Robert's visit to Devos?
New mantra --> Do business and earn bonusess on taxpayers money.
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The UK, in common with the rest of the developed world, is in a mess. Gordon Brown seems to be comforted by the thought that he was not to blame for the sub-prime mortgage fiasco in America, and if only that had not happened, his vision of a new golden age, with sustained improvement in living standards across the globe, would surely have come to pass during his watch and he would have been able to look forward to a retirement as the UK’s most successful ever PM.
Even now, he is still talking about the current meltdown as if it was a minor hiccup during the birth pangs of his new golden age, which demonstrates that he has learned precisely nothing from recent events, and that his claim to have a grasp of the really serious economical issues is without foundation. If our current situation is not one for a novice, it is most certainly not one to be handled by someone who is incapable of facing the facts.
GB clearly believes that the problem is only to do with our banks’ inability to lend because they got their fingers burned by becoming associated with the dodgy lending practices in the USA, and that all he has to do is get them lending again and everything will get back to normal.
I have just watched the interview he gave with Christiane Manpour of CNN at the Davos Meeting, and I have to say he appeared to be much more relaxed, answered questions directly, with no sign of his usual defensive and dithering performance in the Commons, and was altogether more impressive, and very much a fish in his element. He made some very valid points about the need for change in the regulation of financial activities to become a global responsibility and for the threat of financial protectionism preventing this.
He then expanded his thoughts toward creating what he called “Sustainable Globalisation”, which included not only financial systems, but marshalling concerted global action to combat global warming, and global poverty. It sounded like a new United Nations, but with teeth.
I was almost swept along by his enthusiasm as he warmed to his task, until he let slip what he really thought this would be about when he turned his attention on the emerging market nations and said that they were adding to our problems by holding back too big reserves, thus depriving the world of consuming power.
From this it is clear that his mission in life is to promote continued expansion of consumerism throughout the world, and that he has no concept of the inevitable consequences of continued expansion of any system in a finite world, whether it be banking, employment, air traffic, food consumption , car production.......etc.
Sadly he seems to be having some success in persuading the rest of the world to follow suit.
Sustainable Globalisation should be about maintaining quality of life across the globe. The big challenge should be about how to achieve this without requiring an ever increasing global GDP, which is clearly a mindless and unachievable ambition. The longer it takes the GB’s of this world to realise this, the bigger will be the ultimate disaster to the human race. Not the least of our problems is population growth, which is too sensitive a subject to even be mentioned, but it is intimately connected to all the other factors
To end on a lighter note, I will always associate Gordon Brown with a new word which he has introduced to the English language..............”GLOBAL-DE-GOOK”
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#82
point number 30. make toothbrush moustaches and the roman salute compulsory perhaps
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You and your commentators are totally simplistic. I gave up on Martin Wolff years ago. Cadbury's is largely a domestic business despite its relationship with Hersheys. Centrica has a domestic and a global business but one in utilities that consumes massive amounts of commodities
Anyway, we, or they or them do not have control of the global economy. Fundamentally its down to millions and millions of daily choices regarding individual purchases and daliy decisions about how to make the most of savings.
Firstly there is an unbelievable amount of money in pension funds, sovereign wealth funds, corporate accounts, individual accounts etc. This money will slosh around the globe looking for the next best place to make an investment to get a return - commodities, banks, stock markets, stocks, private equity funds, hedge funds, property blah blah. Its the fund managers job to keep ahead of the game, be ahead of the curve, to manipulate wherever possible. Do governments have control over this and by the way I am talking about personal savings from Japan, the US, Europe etc
Secondly, the oil rich nations have budgets that were based on oil being $70 per barrel. Once oil dropped below this, they were hardly going to hang on to other assets. Do governments have control over this?
China was stockpiling commodities. Has probably dumped some. It has a command and control system of managing its economy, its not transparent. Currency tied to the dollar. Do governments have control over this?
Do you think other governments have control over India. It had a completely different approach to its banking sector anyway.
None of your commentators mentioned lower utility bills, lower petrol prices, lower mortgage costs and the impact this might have on the domestic economy.
None of your commentators referred to the 0% financing deals available for purchasing almost anything or the 0% on transfer arrangements for credit cards OR the fact that there are many banks that are fine because they didn't lend ludicrous amounts of money to companies for mergers and acquisitions or lend money to home owners like there was no tomorrow or buy debt in the market place
None of your commentators talked about corporate debt, goodwill on the balance sheet, the effect of mergers and acquisitions versus dynamic growth
Basically utterly pathetic, little englander, brown broadcasting corporation, mean spirited lacking in global analysis drivel
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#91 somali -pirate
Loved the idea of the alternative G20 to run in parallel with the real thing.
We could hire a hall in a less fashionable area of london for effect, roll out some red carpet, get some celebs to open the alternative conference for a bit of coverage.
My preference for the opening would be a selection of the 'news babes' (we know who they are) for an appropriate combination of glamour and gravitas.
We could hold the same meetings, have the same scheduled announcements, some serious based on 'real' informed opinion, some loaded with pathos.
Is it me or does that sound both like a real hoot and worth while? It may not even cost much at all.
Those signed up to the formation of the lobby group thus far are
Tigerjay
Wakeupbritain
Somali- pirate
Jericoa
To keep it manageable (obviously I am expecting a massive response once word gets around) places are initially limited to a total of 30. I am anticipating about 12 'regulars' to sign up so there are another 18 places up for grabs for now to keep it manageable, more can be made available later.
Updates will be posted on Paul Masons Blog for now then we will go 'off line' to avoid cluttering up the blog and take it from there.
What are you waiting for!
Sign up!
Your country needs you.
Jericoa
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Stay global and starve or protect what you have now and go a little hungry. it's as simple as that.
protectionism will not mean the end of international trade. It will mean that we are more careful about what we import.
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the biggest mistake the UK Government did was to fail to take control of the banks or at least have a controlling interest at board level - they have had our money and more to come but what have they done with it? Where has it gone?
Why does the public have to hand over its money and be given no real influence over what they do?
I suggest there is no quality in current management, remove it, remove the level below reporting to it and with some old-fashioned civil service ethics have a combination of civil servants and young up and comers determine how best to move forward. Hold control for 3-4 years then hand back with some better targeted not more regulation and with any luck some return on our investment even if the capital never gets repaid.
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Any chance of a transcript?
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#102, Jericoa wrote: "What are you waiting for! Sign up!"
How?
John Bray in Spain
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mr preston i have followed this crisis from day one.You have kept me informed through your great blog and your wonderful reports both on tv and the internet. I now plead with you to take a break,have a holiday,please just take two weeks off.Your reports are depressing.i know you can only report the facts but i think as the old saying goes too much information can be dangerous.I am just an average joe who now needs you and all your fellow commentators to start being positive.Doom and gloom will not help us get out of this downturn.Where is the Great British spirt,have a break and come back with a more positive attitude.
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#106 vegetable grower
Initially all you have to do is express an interest and you are in.
Once we have 30 people we can then go 'off this blog' and develop things elsewhere.
To save multiple postings I will assume you are interested, just let me know otherwise.
All you have to do is keep looking at paul masons Blog for now and I will keep people informed until such time as we open up a seperate forum.
I have reserved 12 places for 'regulars' I often converse with here but dont seem to be around at the moment.
Your in!
Jericoa
p.s. apologies to all those who want to post 'on topic' I will take it out of this forum as soon as possible. I would be grateful for your indulgence for a day or two. Or alternatively join in. We want all types to geta good mix from high finance analysts right UP to descent hard working people (that is a joke by the way...all are welcome).
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I must say, the concept of an alternative G20 does sound like a good move.
The difficulty is, it would end up being hijacked by extremists.
On another note, is anyone worried about the trend towards civil unrest?
In the last two weeks we have seen violence/protests/wild-cat strikes in
Iceland
Greece
UK
France
Russia
The common theme throughout these protests seems to be a sense of injustice that those responsible for the financial crisis are now dictating to us how best to solve the world's issues, without accepting any personal liability or responsibility for the disaster which they have contributed to. To use Robert's analogy, it is rather similar to a hardened alcoholic, with no intention of relinquishing the liquor, running an Alcoholic's Anonymous seminar.
At last though we are beginning to hear the odd politician seek social justice. Boris Johnson today suggested that city bankers should relinquish their bonuses and give them to charity.
http://news.aol.co.uk/bankers-should-donate-bonuses-to-charity/article/20090131062709990001
Moves like this will become increasingly popular to stave off social unrest as those distant from the crisis are hit by unemployment and housing repossession.
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And Robert
You could have asked the heads of Centrica and Cadburys how much debt they have, how it is funded, when it will need to be repaid and how much goodwill they have on their balance sheets
Then you could ask them what financial advice they would give to individuals resident in the UK
Ask which of these two outfits issued a 5 year eurobond for 750,000 euros paying 7.25%
#107 is right, give us a break and when you come back do some real work, some real investigation and some real journalism
less OPINION please
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"Everything changes, and everything remains the same"
Lampedusa, The Leopard.
Would that some of Peston's contributors had been prescient enough to warn of the dangers they now pontificate on.
Prevention being better than cure.
To say that things will change lacks credibility. Economic realities have radically changed already, and we all know that. We do not need Lambert and Wolf to tell us this. This is not a forecast, it is predicting yesterday's weather today.
It is not a forecast to say that the banks will not continue the irresponsible lending amd financial instruments of recent years which has bankrupted them. This is the age old process of banks lenmding when the sun shines and wanting their umbrella back when it rains.
Plus ca change, plus c'est la meme chose.
For the English among us, "the more that changes, the more it's the same thing".
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Tigerjay / somali pirate / alexander Curzon / Rahere / many others (you know who you are)
go to http://www.democraticbritain.org
just register, no need to post.
I will set up a space for you to meet online
Cheers
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#109 notobailout
It will only be hijacked by extremists if we let it, its all a question of careful management of timing and venue and preparation surely.
The forum should be balanced by a cross section of society, definately not for anyone with a dogmatic single item pre-meditated agenda.
You can be 'person in charge to make sure it is not hijacked by anyone with a dogmatic single item pre-meditated agenda'
It will be in your hands.
You in then?
Jericoa.
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This comment was removed because the moderators found it broke the House Rules.
city too hot
so I and I go cool out
up on a mountain top
maybe it is time to stir the pot
so I'm thinking maybe
make a few changes
more like a conversation
instead of a lecture
figure how to cut out
the crap
just can't defeat we
checking out checking out
check him in check him in
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#111. A chelyabinsk wrote:
"Would that some of Peston's contributors had been prescient enough to warn of the dangers..."
I did do so, along with many others I am sure, throughout the 1990's and 2000's, in writing, to both the Bank of England's Governor and HM Treasury - but 'you can lead a horse to water but you cannot make it drink'.
The written response was in the first case to reiterate the mantra, on several occasions, that all the Bank can do is manage to the 2 percent target and in the case of the Treasury, let me see, several pages on why I was wrong and they were right and why my specific recommended policy adjustments were completely unnecessary as the market would manage things quite well enough.
(PS I want them all fired as they seem not to have the level of professional self respect or standards to resign.)
If they do not throw my correspondence away, which I every expectation that they will, I hope to be able to read it again in the Public Record Office in 20 years time, If I am fortunate enough to be spared that long.
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A lot of replies on here mirror my thoughts exactly with some examples:-
- Many have been gullible by the must have it now attitude and the lure of credit/loans. Even students now end up £15,000+ in debt if they study for a degree.
- Housing is a big problem as very few council houses have been built for a long time. People have to have somewhere to live and it is either buy or rent from a private landlord. The bottom end of the housing market was being forced up by the conflict between first time buyers and buy-to-let landlords. Housebuilders were also forcing the market up by their "affordable" houses being 6 to 7 times the national average age. In the last two months of last year, the local news was interviewing the representative of the selling company of an affordable appartment for "key workers" in Bristol at £150k. But the buyer could go for part ownership isf required - WHAT KEY WORKER COULD AFFORD THAT?
- The welfare state is milked by those that can work the system. Those that can't (pensioners stuck on the minimum income guarantee for example) suffer in this 21st century unless they have someone to help them out. Some of us were brought up to do an honest days work and do it right.
- Everything I see, and have seen, is the selfish "me, me, me" attitude from my initial observations as a teenager during the Thatcher years. Everyone is out to make more money/profit any not care about anyone but themselves.
- Everything is available relatively cheap because of globalisation (cheap third world labour/manufactuing/production). So YES I will quite happily spend £20 on a pair of trousers now but remember my upbringing and what I learnt from then with the limited available funds. Although I will not spend £10k on a new car that is then half that price this time next year. And I refuse to buy any "rubber" elsanta strawberries from Spain/Israel/etc because I grow enough for myself in my garden when in season.
Strange, that this week I am grateful to my bank for identifying that I was close to my limit in my spending account (some offers I could not refuse and needed came my way)- so I could transfer cash from my savings pot. In the past the bank would have just allowed me to go overdrawn and stung me for it big time (one sting for exceeding limit, one sting for the letter and a third one because it takes two days for me to act).
One final thought is that, as has been said here, in a way everyone is guilty in some way for this predicament but then no-one will actually raise a hand and say "Sorry, I have made a mistake" or words to that effect. It take a real man (or woman) to say sorry for their mistake.
So, if my post has offended anyone "sorry" as no offence was intended.
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"May you live in interesting times" is an old Chinese proverb.
We have ensured our own interesting time by making sure that property prices kept rising, choosing to buy more goods on credit, then borrowing more...
How will our leaders get us out of this remains to be seen.
Overall interesting to see which nations are in debt to who. US, UK, Europe in debt to China, Japan, Russia...
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Surely Mr Brown's latest comment about "no road map" points to the recklessness of the economic system that he has helped to construct over the last decade or so.
There is no point in blaming the global economy, when even grass roots investors have been warned that the value of their investments can go down as well as up.
The government has promoted a situation in which this country is at the mercy of forces that are beyond its control. But the first responsibility of a government is defence.
Of course, as all good football managers know- the best defence is an ability to launch attacks, so the answer is not as most political leaders have quite correctly said Protectionism. The answer is an economic approach that is not aimed at pell mell exploitation of windfall opportunities- what I have called "Potato Patch Economics"- that is one based upon monoculture or monoproduction.
Unfortunately since the days of Mr Brown's countryman, Adam Smith, we have been told that specialization on the ONE thing in which we have Comparative Advanatage is THE way to create Wealth; and with Wealth you can do anything - even bring peace to Northern Ireland.
This Scottish policy of rape, rapine and plunder of Comparative Advantage has proved Socially, Evironmentally and Ecologically disastrous- creating problems that have demanded that the State takes up nearly 40% of all the wealth that the economy generates.
Old English wisdom stipulated that you should not put all your eggs in one basket; and its economic systems - most notably the most important rural economy- was based upon concepts of diversity and sustainability, so that the contribution of each individual might be diverse- ranging through a number of economic, social and political identities that kept the role of central government and the taxation system to a minimum.
It was the kind of thinking that at one level inspired E.F.Schumacher's "Small is Beautiful"; but he did not take it far enough; offering it as a "best possible" second best for the developing world.
As for no-one predicting thatthis kind of thing could happen, what people mean is no-one that they bothered to listen to issued warnings... All those big-egos who had read all the texts by the back-slapping incestuous incrowd got together as some of them are doing this week.
Blind leading the blind.
Casseroleon
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Not just the Banks and the Financiers.
I don't think that it is just the banks, financiers and politicos that are to blame for the current mess
I'm pretty sure it's not the reporters either.
Big business and multi-nationals have also played their part.
I know when teflon tony came to power there was all this talk of ethical foreign policy, how many international businesses have been running without any ethical policy at all, solely in pursuit of profit and never mind the cost (human or in cash terms)
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A very insightful guy to listen to is Chris Martenson, take his "Crash Course", it takes 3hrs 20mins but is enlightening.
It's broken up into chapters so you can take a bit at a time.
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#113
I'm interested
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How about getting those responsible for leading us all down the garden path so well to be made to use their bonuses to buy homes for those people made homeless from redundancy as a direct result of this crunch? Then getting these arrogant so and so's to do the housework, gardening and DIY?
Poetic justice but will never happen-nice thought though!
Civil unrest seriously concerns me. Currently any pleas to the finer nature of politicians will fall on deaf ears as we have the Chinese Prime Minister and delegation visiting for 3 days. Did you hear Mandy's outright 'no protectionism' bit tonight?
We constantly get no you can't have this/do that. Surely it should be balanced with an alternative?
IMHO I think the unrest has nothing to do with wanting protectionism per se-more that people want their governments to do something which will help each individual, rather than abig company or bank. Noone can see how any of the measures so far will counteract the very real damage to their own lives since this all began.
People are more concerned with surviving than getting a new car. Who's job is really secure? What company will still be around in a year's time?
Whilst very little could be totally guaranteed before the credit crunch, people are so frightened by how bleak the future is they need to feel they mean more to government than the banks, bankers and big corporations.
If our government don't visibly demonstrate how they value us, and just sternly say 'stop thinking of yourselves-think about other countries' then we run a very real risk of deeper unrest, including further strikes and racial attacks.
If the government don't look to it's own, it will hardly be a surprise when people attack as a way of doing this themselves.
The more the economy fractures and personal miseries grow, the more the veneer of politeness will disappear. Eventually anyone with any outward sign of affluence (including having a job) will be at risk from those who perceive themselves to be without.
Better to make investigations and prosecutions very public sooner rather than later.
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kik_dread's comment may have been a little off topic, but was still a legitimate and possibly helpful response and reminder of where our priorities should be focussed.
Especially those of the totally profit orientated rich.
We in this country squeek loudly at the first hint of ..... whoa holiday in Blackpool instead of Marbeja... who...
diesel instead of petrol? etc etc etc.
Take a careful look at how other folk are TRYING to survive.
Hrmph.......... maybe I am an old fart, but I do recognise where the bread is.
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Prudeboy (97),
Yeah!Salaam/Shalom/Shanthi/Peace
ed
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#65
We need to find a way of respecting those who take their responsibilities seriously. In this market economy we respect those who make the money regardless of how they came to have the money.
We pay the care assistants who look after our grannies a paltry sum. They stuggle to live on the money. In most other countries there are no care assistants, kids look after their elders. That is family and how life is.
To those who fear protectionism, we have to be clear about what we want.
I worked in the late 80's at a State University. When I arrived, there were huge administrative problems initially. The reason was my job had not been advertised initally to Americans. The job was for 3 months so it was quickly sorted. Did I feel bad? Yes I did.
Does it make economic sense to fly across the Atlantic to work on a project while Americans were trained and perfectly capable of doing the work themselves? It increases costs.
Is there anything really wrong with this? Many African countries adopt this stance too. Should we object?
Isn't the flavour of protectionsim that we have a means of ensure wage prices are driven down and so increasing profit?
It could be argued that companies will not allow local work forces to deskill since a company will invest to ensure there is a ready supply of workers for the future. Does this actually happen? It does with those companies where a long-term view is taken. It doesn't with those with a short-term view.
I don't understand macro economics etc, but what I have seen since the late 70s is a failure of society meeting the basic needs of humans.
People need a means of supporting themselves over a lifetime. They need to feel secure in their abilities to support themselves and their families. Training for a career that is then lost or under threat after say 10 years doesn't provide that security.
We lost so many construction workers in the 80s because our economy either couldn't or wouldn't support them. As soon as the economy picked up, we didn't have the skills. As a nation, we became dependant on importing construction workers. And their home countries were left bereft of those skills. For years no one wanted to work in construction since it wasn't viewed as a means providing long term security in terms of individual survival. This could and does happen in so many industries, yet others are protected.
Should we take the brightest from the third world, train them in nursing and medicine to work for us? Well, their own nations will have to do without? We need a way of ensuring there is a balance?
Isn't it a matter of balance? A lock-down on workers from abroad isn't good. But is a free-for-all better?
All people want at the end of the day is a means of providing themselves with a living. That is a basic human need.
It is really difficult to be told you can't earn 12 quid an hour anymore. Instead you can only earn, say 7 if you can get a job at all. And you are being told this by folk who are jollying off to Davos, drinking champagne etc.
We really need to consider who benefits from no protectionism and who doesn't. If a free-for-all is a benefit for you, then is it a long-term benefit and how?
We being told that we require sustainable development and a careful use of resources especially by those who are interested in the environment. And remember, a workforce is also considered as a resource.
Are cheep jeans from a supermarket a benefit to you? For the next two weeks they are, but what about the next 20, 30 or 40 years?
A story from my neighbour a couple of years ago. A major gas company identified an international source for seals. These seals are only used in the gas industry and therefore only a single company engineered them here in the UK. The gas company cancelled their order with the UK company and placed a large order with the competitor. The gas seals were fitted (the gas pipes are under roads) and evverything was fine and dandy for 3 months. Then cheaper gas seals failed one by one and the supplier just couldn't get it right. The result - the UK manufacturer had closed, his engineers were gone and there was no reliable supplier left.
My neighbour is convinced that gobalisation is a means of getting the cheapest goods over the short term and nothing else. The long-term cost is never part of the calculation.
It sounds just a little like bankers, maybe...
I've no idea what the answer is. I've some ideas of how that balance can be introduced but that is for another night.
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124
Yeah.
Good sentiments. But the comments about Africa saving our bacon and being an opening book should be a warning.
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123
Exactly.
Is it defensible to leave your own countrymen with no work while a politician champions those who did not elect them.
They really need to honestly explain why foreign workers are a good idea. And that explanation should be honest. Really honest.
Companies take on a persona with some legal rights, almost as if they were a person. I've never understood how a democracy functions when a non-voting company-individual seems to have more weight and influence in government policy than the electorate. That can't be a sign of a democracy with a healthy view of the electorate.
They will need to be careful. We will have unrest. The ability of workers to be heard has been lost. Try and catch this weekends Dateline London on BBC24
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Casseroleon,
You underestimate his continuing influence. It is indeed a shame he died so early, but his work lives on.I also resent your mis-characterisation of Adam Smith's great work. And your slur on Scotland.. England has much more to answer for.
Salaam/Shalom/Shanthi/Peace
ed
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#128 CoralBloom
Civil unrest is a major conern.
From the Guardian:
Europe's time of troubles is gathering depth and scale. Governments are trembling. Revolt is in the air.
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#130
Humour time!
We have a housing crisis - repossessions.
We have the ghostly nightmare of mass unemployment hovering and showing.
The City Council have re-tarmaked George Square in Glasgow - a rather lovely reddish colour, the significance of which, no one seems to have noticed (not even my 70-odd year old, lifelong Union member noticed until I pointed it out just before Christmas.
Have we really not understood history?
Are the women really going to start throwing around bags of flour at Sherrif Officers (the repo man) see 1915 Glasgow Rent Strike and economic conditions at the time?
Are we really going to have the Riot Act (or modern version) read out, with the Red Flag being raised (well it wont be the European one anyway), and troops placed on standby in Gasgow by a government worried of a revolution aka the Red Clydesiders?
Sheridon organised a pretty effective anti-poll tax campaign and did a pretty good job at making working life as difficult as he and his friends could when the poll tax was being fought over.
Hope not, but then again....
Mark Thomas is going to have a good laugh
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Oops
that last post should read
Sheridon organised a pretty effective anti-poll tax campaign and did a pretty good job at making working life as difficult for the Sherrif Officers as he and his friends could when the poll tax was being fought over.
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Wow bbc website team - you were fast in posting this:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/glasgow_and_west/7859192.stm
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There is no reason why any country can't protect the indigenous workforce, while at the same time welcoming those who wish to move to another country, where appropriate.
Australia does it.
For a government to refuse to do so, is the government giving permission to multinationals to reduce a workforce to poor workers for their own benefit. That demonstrates a lack of respect for the workforce to the benefit of the multinationals. Looking after your own citizens in no way equates with racism. The electorate are the bosses. Do the politicians expect a bonus for doing their job. They will have to be careful or they will realise that they will be subject to the effects of readjustment themselves. The bosses just may give them the boot. We will need to have an Obama-type law that says they cant work as lobbyists for 2 years after leaving office too.
Read the link to the story about the clydesiders re #33
Look at the language - the ruling classes didn't want the working classes to have improved lives or conditions. It doesn't seem as if they were too interested in the demobbed soldiers who were lucky enough to escape for their lives either.
The working classes gave their all for queen and country. And did the rulers of their country give a toss once the land was saved? Not a bit of it.
The big companies, the attendees at Davos are the new ruling classes. They are right to be scared - the economic crash has shown them to be exactly what they are - selfish, self-centred, greedy and incapable of giving two hoots for an ordinary Joe.
No alternative since there no real differences between any of the political parties.
Unemployment isn't pleasant, but they are saying we need a readjustment. It is necessary. Will those who are sacrificed as part of that readjustment be thanked for quietly losing their jobs since they seem to be helping out with economic policy. No, they'll be lambasted for being lazy, idle, etc etc.
#123.
I really like that idea - as long as they are made to wear a brightly coloured, easily identifiable jacket with big letters spelling out -Community Service-
Can you send one round to clean my windows during the week? Got some ironing too that needs done.
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Labour are now discovering that their one armed bandit economy [that seemed to be bringing the money in ,as faith in snake oil triumphed over experience] is now in the yellow ,an alignment of manny Lehmons ,that has to pay out to those once thought of as suckers.
No more return to boom and bust [red and black]how true, it WAS the Yellow brick fools gold road to ruin[The third way] .
THE WAGES OF SPIN IS DEBT , the north sea bubble is over and the sages of win doze 97 are in need of a new opperating system that won't gate crash into a walltz street party at 19.29 GMT [Gordons Moment of Truth]
Welcome to Gordonziland where a pyramid of debt was created so that Laboury polleetitians could make complete Tutts [and car men]out of themselves ,with their fiends from the silly con valley of the bankings wondering where to put their inflated digits when most chips were already down ,whilst themasses[AAA's holes] were encouraged to slide along their rollers and into de nile
Money was confused with wealth, when in reality it is only an entitlement[most of it frozen in pension funds] on a wealth creation economy in dickline for a decade .
Its all so clear to me now!
Its an IOUWREECKCAR moment where the fools gold could no longer displace money and had to be binned [toxic banks].
AAArchimedes please come and help us get one over the freek sophists running the WRECKSQUEUERS .
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Every thing will change ,but change is a matter of fact and progress is a matter of opinion , with the passing of time proving the difference .
"Things can only get better "now a proven delusion leaving its purveyors to re bottle their snake oil with a new labourel Dr HAdo at taxipayerrs expence.
As long as the human condition is disposed to delusions then any group emerging in a crisis can tend to pander to those same delusional apetites ,the light of truth is easily lost .
If you want to solve this crisis form a basic group of 12 to include as differant types as possible excluding perverts,serve eachother ,establish empathy and its fruit consensus .
Then appear on Dragons den to get some funding
Later invite polititians [excuse my spelling]to ruin it..... if they can .
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I work in Finance. I advise people and corporates. Over the past few months I have asked everyone, corporate and otherwise whether they feel that the government's VAT reduction has made any positive difference to their lives. As yet I have not found anyone at all that has said yes. The current score is 86 to zero. Can anyone offer any positive thought on this?
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I am afraid to say that the chattering classes of big bosses and assorted fiscal experts and politicians have really not seen the big picture yet.
Britain,France,Russia and Germany are closer to civil war or revolution than they have been since the thirties.
The financial sector has been allowed to destroy the real powerhouse that was Britain; that sector caused inflation and caused the high property costs that are now the root of the problem in the UK.
Captalisim, the monetary system, banking has failed spectacularly and all we hear is how difficult it will be in the next few months.#
It is going to be increasingly difficult over the next decade and possibly two decades.
This country is in such a shambles that a determined group could take it over easily and all of the seeds of such a takeover are germinating now.
We neeed leaders who can think out of the box and lead more than ever now.
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It's very convenient now for Gordon Brown to start talking about there being "no road map" for the present crisis. What he's doing, of course, is laying the ground for doing whatever the hell he likes from here on.
Remember, Mr Brown is a machiavellian, power-obsessed, controlling politician - these days, almost completely unencumbered by irritating cabinet (collective) decision-making, still less by the annoying requirement to be held to account in Parliament. The momentous and wholly undemocratic decisions taken by Brown and a close coterie of his colleagues recently could well sink the UK economy; they have almost certainly guaranteed 10 - 20 years of austerity, without so much as a by your leave to the democratic process. Just how scary is that? At least in the USA, their vast spending plans are being put to the vote.
I sense that this crisis is developing an ugly face. We've gone from millions of words of technical verbiage about the arcane, complex financial instruments that bankers used to screw us all. We all looked and listened, baffled.
Then, we started to discover the practicalities: bankers' skins saved and, er, virtually no bank lending. Now we're discovering the impact on the real economy: bankruptcies (individual and corporate); unemployment; home repossessions; bleak forecasts for many years ahead.
So, I wonder if the trades unions will be wishing to make their voices heard a little more clearly at the forthcoming G20 Conference in London in April? Maybe the Taxpayers' Alliance will garner support for making the poor old taxpayers' voice heard too? The problem comes if some of the more unsavoury political parties and pressure groups decide to ramp up their volume controls.
The frustration is that we ordinary folk have been unceremoniously shoved overboard by Brown, Darling, Mandelson etc as they plough on with their grandiose, world-saving, ego-boosting games. What on earth's going on here?
Unlike in the US, where Obama offers a total disconnect with the past, the opportunity to distant himself from the causes of the crisis and to win the trust and support of his people, here Gordon Brown's hands are drenched in blood. As he holds them up and conveniently says, "There's no road map ....", I'm chilled to the bone.
Around the world, in a growing number of countries, citizens are choosing to make a noise about the mess politicians are making of this crisis. In this country, Gordon Brown was the architect of our dire predicament.
One wonders for how much longer we're going to remain supine as Brown punches us about still further with that Big Clunking Fist, shouting "British jobs for British workers! There's no road map, there's no road map ...", meaning he can go wherever he likes?
When a politician starts behaving and talking like Gordon Brown, I start getting a sense of 1930s deja vu.
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Interesting Lord Mandelson has just remembered the Post Office is also a bank and could be use.
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Soros & Rubini sounds like the name of a
dodgy firm of lawyers working for the Mafia.
Take care Robert. Keep warm.
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While it is great to debate as to what disaters are going to befall us we need to get out of the mess now.
What needs to be done is to stand up to accounting profession and leave them in no doubt that they have got it horribly wrong.
We need to get rid of mark to market accounting. It is plain nonsense to tar every debt instrument with the same brush and force companies to write it down to zero.
Get rid of it and we will all be able to sleep a bit easier.
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Change that we can believe in
change that fits into slot machines
small change that one armed bandits like
change that allows faith to try oomph over ex pence
change that leaves AAA's holes in back pockets
change that changes nothing butt change
The gravy train that left London is now arriving in Palookahville.[plaese fasten your chastity belts]
All change for small change .
Those not wishing to change will have to change on the slow boat to China
Where the wishying and washying for the good life never changes
And those that didnt change spend their last change on a copy of the book of changes
Which says it all ends when their is no spare changing room
When the changing rooms are full of transgenderrs who wished they had not changed
Please kind orriental Sir ,Imissed my stop at palookahville ,may i change my onward stubb.
Certainly my little changeling ,heres one to yim buck two
Once there things canned only get better [ho ho]
Government whealth warning
"things can only get bet....err"
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139 Moraymint.
I heartily agree with your comments.
Mandleson and Brown and the feather nested big boys are so out of touch and far removed from reality that they do not know what is happening in their own back yard.
We are seeing long established firms of over 150 yrs old collapsing into bankruptcy daily. People who have worked hard, are well educated and honest are being dragged into bankruptcy when they should be retired and all they do is give us sweet rhetorical platitudes.
Brown and the Establishment and particularly the Financial Services sector and fat cat corrupt politicians and civil servants are feeding the green shoots of revolution and it will be bloody.
God Save Britain as our politicians won't.
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#139
To be fair, I really don not believe it is all down to Gordon Brown - and we'll have no more of the anti-Scottish stuff for now thank you - to anyone who thinks that is OK, it isn't.
This economic nightmare has been brewing since we found a fix to the winter of discontent. Lamont was no genious either.
Folk wont be out on the street rioting, at least not until demos are forced to break up then maybe.
The Unions are not strong enough.
We will have every single-policy issue person throwing in their two pence worth and that will get the UK nowhere.
Capitalism may have been the answer, but the flavour of captalism is not. What we have is a fundamentalism that is as intolerant as the worst aspects of relgion.
The misinterpretation of Darwinism in the economic sphere, dressing it up as Social Darwinism was no more than a cover for the most ruthless of people to hide behide. Enron is a case in point there.
We need some honesty, and deceny. If we stick with capitalism, are we going to be honest enough and not only admit the consequences but deal with them humanely?
Never mind the dole dodgers are the unemployed are labelled. If it is OK to have corportate welfare, then why not social welfare?
If it is OK for large companies and the rich to dodge taxes and ignore the spirit of the law, then why not sit on the dole.
If skills are essential, then why are the engineers worried about their jobs?
If training is going to help, can we be honest enough to admit that an apprenticeship for a 50 year old won't and really shouldn't be forced into it, especially if he has already served an apprenticeship. Are these guys really going to see the value in an apprenticeship in office skills and business administration? I think not.
No one wants to be out of work. No one wants to retrain 2 or 3 times in a lifetime, not in a world where once you hit your 40s most employers aren't interested saying you are overqualified.
Yeah, people have talked on and on about the complexities of the financial instruments. Very impressive it is too. A lot of us could use our professions to be just as suitable impressive and yet incomprehensible. It is now starting to hit home, and people are realising that if they remain seated the solutions will not be for their benefit. The longer the politicians and the people in the know prattle on, the more worried the general public will become.
At the end of the day, we all need to understand what has happened, what has been proposed and what will happen next.
That is the magic of Robert (mostly).
It is time the Davos lot got on with some real work and stopped debating who will sit beside who and what is on the menu. They need to sort this out, properly and have it done by yesterday.
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surely if we get back to 2007 lending levels we are back to where the problem in the uk started.also brown says the wildcat strikes arnt fair....well to bad brown you deal with it.
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the one things browns and his shower are worried about is to try and get some sort of media good news(as opposed to the real news) before may 2010.he doesnt give 1 jot about the lives he is wrecking,everyday in this area i read about people committing suicide because of money problems,even allowing for a world problem,brown has been proved to be wrong in so many areas, 1 is the 10per cent tax band, if his maths cant work that 1 out what other more complex maths models has he done incorrectly?
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“The Prime Minister said he recognised people were "worried" about jobs being taken by workers from other countries, but stressed that the UK was part of a "single European market".
He also sought to explain his pledge of "British jobs for British workers", insisting he had only meant people would be given the skills to compete against other nationalities.”
How on earth is anyone to deal with this man? Everything he says has a completely different meaning from what most English speakers would understand.
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Your interviewees were quite correct when they agreed that nothing is going to be the same again. I wish that view was more widely understood.
I also agree with the comment that later this year a huge fiscal stimulus is going to become apparent as the US initiative kicks in.
However, how will this stimulus become apparent?
With depressed markets, few goods and knackered assets how much of this stimulus is going to be consumed by inflation?
The most interesting comment so far this weekend has been that attributed to Gordon Brown that dealing with the global crisis requires continued new interpretations.
Whilst we can all have fun with the idea that he now accepts he is the novice, it does bother me to think that someone so previously lacking in any imagination other than what was good for Gordon Brown is in charge of events.
In a year's time there is a clear risk that this country is going to be mired in stagflation, massive debts and over 5 million unemployed. It is true to say that things will never be the same again as the political fall-out from such a situation at election time is just too horrible to contemplate.
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5 things debatable about brown(i could write a book)
1."every country in the world is affected by the global recession" wrong ive just been to cluj in romania and their banks arnt affected at all and theres less unemployment than the uk.
2."the reduction in the tax band from 22 to 20 percent will advantage the very low paid."wrong the abolishing in the 10 per cent band was slipped in to counteract this.
3."the uk will be best placed to weather the global recession" wrong we ,if anything, are in the worst position,reliance on financial services has accounted for that.
4."i intend to end boom and bust" well no more said on that one.
5."british jobs for british workers" right .
I could name many more, how long have we to put up with this pompous man?
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All
We are developing a lobby group from the contributers here with a focus of setting up an alternative G20 summit in London in April.
This is meant to be both a worthwhile and enjoyable activity with the G20 summit giving a positive focus to our activities to aim for be the outcome big or small.
We are looking for a well balanced cross section of contributers from here.
Thus far we have
Wakeupbritain
jericoa
somali pirate
vegetable grower
Tigerjay
coralbloom
Robrocket
Just express your interest when you next post and I will pick it up. numbers are limited to 30 for now to keep it manageable.
For more details click on my name and follow the trail.
Jericoa
PS as soon as we are broadly sorted i will stop posting here, please indulge me for a few days with off topic posts for those not interested. I think it is worth the departure from the blogs intended use temporarily.
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148 Of course Gordon can understand the fear of workers about to lose their jobs to those from a foreign land since he,s about to do so himself.
Pity Russia is not part of the single union currency ,then we could send our leading lights to the loggin camp of cyberia.
British jobs for British workers is the kind of self evident tautology that only Gordon the fount of every blessing, would try to get away with.
Which also explains why in 10 years as chanceseller of the eggschecker, he had no contingency plan to deal with the inevitable and greater repeat of the colapse of long term capital management ,which was swept under the carpet at the time [adding to the ponzi pie and appearance of fools gold]
ie he spent most of his time formulating seemingly authoritative soundbites such as the latest "their is no road map"as a opposed to "their is a road map"
When he should have said "I doesnt know where the road map is,any more than i know where the off switch on my mobile is"
[for the sake of brevity,I ALSO struggle to SWITCH off my mobile ]
Gorden has no eggscuse ,at the time of the colapse of LTCM Peter Warburton IEA [Institute of Economic Affairs] wrote "debt and delusion"
Just read his summary
http://www.innovationwatch.com/books/bks_0713992727.htm
Why is this man not running the Show now ?
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148 sosraboc :
" but stressed that the UK was part of a "single European market"
We may be part of a "single European market" but without the Euro we are not part of 'Europe'.
Why is it that we have to take all the downside (eg free labour movement, immigration etc, etc - largely a one-way street it seems to me) and none of the upside (eg the protection of the Euro)?
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we may be part of a single Europe, but do we really need a Minister For European Expansion?
I heard Jeremy Vine mention this position on Friday morning!
More needless jobs-time to economise yourself Gordy!
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Anyone who wishes to know the truch about the worlds money system should google the movie zeitgeist (watch both movies) or "money as debt" by Paul Grignon and look at the true picture and not terrible untruth painted by Robert Peston. No wonder he has risen to prominence during this crisis. Only 3% of the worlds money supply exists in Physical money, the rest neither has existed nor will it ever. If everyone in the world paid there debt there would be no money left in the money supply. Not to mention the interest. Bankrupcy is built into the system for this reason. The truth is that surpressed that I bet even this post will not make into the posting. The BBC and free speach are not compatable. By the way also google the corrupt fractional reserve system and the role central banks play in all this and you will see it for what it is a manipulated event not an economic cycle they have us all believe it is. Peston where onto you and would love a live TV face to face with you and watch you stutter your way out of this one. You know the truth and you know that all these loans that people have signed up to was with money typed into their accounts with money that never existed. I think they call it expanding the money supply. What you think
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The link in 152 should have been
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_01/warburton041801.html
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Poor old Brown.
His great "free market economy" has become a "flea market economy".
Perhaps we mis-heard him.
And his "Masters of the Universe" have turned out to be "Masters of the dodgy deal", "Masters of the dodgy assets", "Masters of the dodgy profits", and "Masters at overpaying themselves".
Poor old Brown.
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153
I do not think Spain, Italy Greece and Eire would necessarily agree membership of the Euro is a protection
Austria Bulgaria and Hungary might have something to say about the Euro too.
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Reported in last Wednesdays 'The Times' newspaper 28-Jan-09 (very small article on page 40)
Merrill Lynch: John Thain, the former chief executive of Merrill Lynch, the investment bank now owned by Bank of America, has been subpoenaed as part of an investigation into bonuses paid by banks that have received US governement bailout funds.
AIG: Christian Milton, a former executive at the US insurance group has been sentenced to four years in prison for his role in a reinsurance deal that prosecutors said had misled AIG investors.
WHEN DO THE PROSECUTORS GET OFF THEIR BACKSIDES OVER HERE?
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the banking system is one manifestation of problematic systems in effect, but we should not take our eyes off the ball on the other causes of our woes, such as public services wastage and expenditure, governmental interference in individual freedoms social and family lives, excessive laws and legislation, loss of legal and human rights etc
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On Post 152 "British jobs for British" Browns comments on this today are laughable. It was "What I meant to say was". How many lies does this government have to produce before the british people see them for what they really are. Corrupt, Lying, arrogant, and utterly laughable if it wasnt so serious. The governments propaganda machine has had all accept that this is an econimic cycle, therefore picturing in our minds that it is some how an event beyond our control. It was very much in our ( or our goverments) control and not much was said about the deregulation when time were percervied as good. The truth is our government are mearly a vehicle for introducing the agenda of the corrupt banking and Oil cartels and every other corrupt institutions such as pharacuticals and many many others therefore making our parliment an irrelevance. Most laws are not debated in parliment but are introduced by devloved powers or standing orders. We need to stop handing power to the few in Britain to see real change.
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151. Jericoa:
"Just express your interest when you next post and I will pick it up. numbers are limited to 30 for now to keep it manageable".
I'm very interested in this.
Friendlycard
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Moraymint (love the name),
but without the full complement of Machiavelli's wit.I've had that feeling for at least five years. The number of "economic indicators" which have been off-scale or in the "not since 1929" zone has been frightening for at least that long.Sosraboc, Humpty Dumpty, as Alice discovered, had his personal vocabulary. "When I use a word," Humpty Dumpty said in a rather scornful tone, "It means just what I choose it to mean - neither more nor less." ....
Bewildering, or have a look here
"We are often cautioned that we must live in the 'real world' by folk
who mean 'money', a concept more abstract than theoretical physics."
In $$$$$ We Trust
ed
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159
EXACTLY!
Wonder how many would be found out? Would there be gaping holes in banks?!
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151. Jericoa:
Count ME IN
I would love to contribute
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The causes of recessions, boom and bust cycles are well known to many in the money markets. The depth of this one could have been drastically reduced but was deliberately allowed even encouraged to worsen. “Give me control of a nation's money and I care not who makes her laws” Mayer Amschel Rothchild.
Governments are not really controlling anything. This recession has happened across most of the worlds political spectrum. They did not create the boom nor the bust, they just danced to the tune of their masters.
The mass media will not try to educate the people regarding who really controls the monetary system, since their paymasters are the ones who are driving the agenda. Take a look at what Ron Paul - Republican United States Congressman and physician has been saying for years but largely ignored, about the Federal Reserve. Take a look at The Money Masters on youtube.
Should the public get too well informed there is always fear, (WMD), greed (housing boom, easy credit) and media manipulation (take your pick!) to fall back on. You are dealing with very clever and ruthless people who understand how to drive the human race using very subtle and not so subtle methods.
Venus project here we come!
I will be surprised if you are reading this on one of the alphabet news channel controlled web sites.
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159
I suppose that until we know the 'culprits' are going to be dealt with and held to account (sorry about the pun) noone will remotely be interested in trusting or believing any of the political leaders. A good start will be to list all bonuses given out over the last few years. I suppose this can be extracted from the respective annual reports and take to take the auditors in all cases and ask them to justify. Have all the last few years been fraud? misselling?. A list of all the assets must be made public and they need to start selling off some of their assets to refund some of the tax payers money. Until all money has been refunded/accounted for there must be publication of all expenditure
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notamuseddave
Your comments are spot on. The venus project (although not perfect and never claims to be) is far better that what we have now. The current money system enslaves 99% of us.
As I have seen in many countries in the world if you look at there media it is no different to ours. It is shallow and does not discuss topics and issues that are out of the perceived norm.
Could you imagine the wall of silence you would get by even raising this on any of the media in this country. Has anyone ever questioned (I am sure they have) why the news agenda on supposedly independent news organisations such as the BBC, ITV and Sky are the same every day as if they are one. Today's propaganda is tomorrows official history.
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#165 bewilderingthetruth and #162friendlycard
Excellent.
Will add you both to the list. Pop into to Paul Masons blog every now and again to see what is going on. It will take a little while to settle down. 9 people so far.
Please note for purely practical reasons I am happy to act as a focus to facilitate this and get the ball rolling for now.
I am also quite happy to give that up once we are a bit more organised / a way down the track as I have a full time job and a young family. I am trying to help my 9 year old with her homework while typing this for example!
Jericoa
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'Banker + gangster = bankster'
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/magazine/7861397.stm
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British companies do win contracts and bring their own workers with them. That happens all the time in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Dubai etc. From some of the reaction to the Italian workers you would think that that type of thing is un-thinkable to a British company..
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137: Yes there is something positive. It is a good thing in my view, if all this governmental fiddling with correction doesn't work. If it works, it means postponing and prolonging the problems. Most of all, the necessary radical economic changes will be delayed even further, valuable time will be lost and there will be no future. Something as wrong as the reliance of the UK on finance gambling over such a long period just has to end with a painful correction. The VAT cut is a lie. It's part of the government's denial.
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As the man said in the first sentence, the visible start of the crash was a property boom, not a credit crunch. Despite the comment that this will never happen again, this cycle has repeated since the mid-19th century. Here is the complete order of events, starting in 2006 or earlier. 1) Profits from selling consumer goods accumulated into a few hands. 2) The wealthy treated property as a kind of bank to store savings since they could find no growth opportunities. 3) Consumers bought property at inflated prices in the hope of selling at a profit. 4) Consumers and small business owners took out loans based on their inflated house prices. 5) The banks noticed that we were all standing on air and panicked into refusing any more loans. Consumers spending more will start us off again at step 1. Banks making loans prolongs step 4. Now does anybody have any *serious* suggestions about how we can handle accumulated profits that does not involve repeating the cycle?
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#169, Jericoa: "9 people so far."
There are actually a couple more. Follow some of the clues from me and BobRocket on Paul's blog.
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Speaking of bonus culprits, is this one
in the pool? I seem to recall an announcement, complete with commentary by a certain Mr Peston...
Peace and secret handshakes
ed
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News headlines over the last couple of years have been about the huge level of debt in the and yet nothing was ever done about it, no one had heard of Robert Peston then, no fancy graphics on the new headlines, now we have a new headline every day a new graphic every day.
It does remain that all thought it was somenedy elses problem to fix that houses were perfect investment in order to top up the pension funds.
It is also true that a lot of that money that has 'disappeared' was not there in the first place.
It is also true that memory is short and that the cycle will repeat sooner than we think.
It is important to get money moving again, this is the first priority and things will take care of themselves. We must just need to accept that it will start again slowly and that to make it back to the same levels will take a very long time.
I also do think that news coverage seems to be extremely bleak and I think some of it is on purpose. When things get 'fixed' and they will get fixed we will just hear on wonderful fast it has all been
Looking at the web site for the G20 summit we can be kept informed of the agenda. It is February and the summit in in April..
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#169
I'm sure everyone will help out. Once there is a central space we can sort out who is doing what etc.
#172
Environmental protection and sustainability
That includes developing and funding national and globale energy for the future. It includes better farming techniques to ensure everyone on this planet can easily have enough food.
Infrastructure development
Schools, hospitals, libraries, Youth Clubs, Sports Clubs..fantastic transport systems that actually work as they should, getting there on time, with you sitting on the seat you paid for.
Prisons.
They are spilling over already and we need somewhere for the banksters to go and have a long think about responsibilty and honesty!
Health care
Endless list for this.
But attention to fighting antibiotic resistance, viral diseases
Education
Life-long learning is seriously expensive, so use the profits to make that much more affordable.
Knowledge
Properly stocked libraries - regardless of whether knowledge is in paper of digital form there is a cost in availability and quality.
Elderly Care
Even if the elderly and frail are taken care of by their own families there are still costs to helping out and those costs can be really high.
Child care for the under-fives
My mum worked in a small cash and carry, my dad was a plumber, and we all went to nursery school in the 60s and 70s. The cost was pennies. It was never a problem to send a kid to nursery even for the working classes. On the day I started school, I new most of my classmates. The new kids mostly went to a different nursery and only about 3 of them stayed at home with their mothers. It was great fun - I still remember the toys, the paints, the water bath to splosh around with, the lunchtime nap. I will never forget it was those 3 kids who bawled their eyes out on the first day. The rest of us were too busy catching up with our friends and being curious about this school thing to be upset... and no, I don't have kids!
The list is endless, use your imagination and take your pick. Money is all well and good in the bank to save for a rainy day, but think how different a society would be if we spent it on the finer things on life rather than the latest fashion item, the latest TV to sit in beside all the ones you already have.
Consumption will not go away, but what we consume and how much of it will change.
We will have to learn to live together in families and communities again, so get used to it. The rest of the world seems to manage it, just not us English speakers!
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175 - Let's hope he knows a good barrister
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I am thinking more & more that this whole situation has been engineered...
Problem - Reaction - Solution.
In order to implement changes that under normal circumstances 'the people' would find abhorrent the 'powers that be' create a problem that 'the people' demand a solution to, usually the solution will be what was intended all along.
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#178
Are you suggesting self-defence? HaHa
How much will he charge himself? (pun definitely intended)
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#174 vegetable grower
looks good, Im impressed!
I will start to re-direct people there.
#169
Thanks for the sentiment, I am sure they will too, I have a good feeling about this.
We need to keep some momentum going. Hopefully having a focus of arranging a real event will do that.
Great Idea of Somali pirates wrt an 'alternative G20 meeting'. There is enough time to do it as well. We do need to be careful however not to allow it to be 'highjacked' by one particular group or other, particularly extremists of any kind but that is in our hands.
Jericoa.
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151 - Jericoa & Others
Good to see people getting together to try to find alternative solutions, however I believe the only solution now viable is substanial and direct action in order to for the ordinary persons voice to be fully heard.
If you're planning to demonstrate as close as you can get to the G20 summit then I think you'll find you'll have a large (and noisey) turn out.
If, however, you are planning to have a 'cosy chat' somewhere then it's a non starter as 'cosy chats' are what got UK to the position it's now in in the first place.
Good luck anyway.
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#181
That thought had occurred to me too. Once there is a meeting place we can sort out what is what, who is who.
It will be really good and if we focus and stick to it for April.
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Re 151 Jericoa
What a good idea.
An alternative G20 could tell it like it really is, and maybe come up with alternative suggestions, without politics getting in the way.
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Whatever happens, we know that we all will suffer financially.
Wouldn't it be great if there was a way of ensuring that those of us to whom no blame can be apportioned could be pardoned?
My only debt is my mortgage, which itself is far far less than I could have borrowed at the time. Everything else I saved to buy and even now that this whole mess has caused me to lose my job, I'm still not borrowing. My savings - which are minimal due to the fact that my salary was the only thing that wasn't increasing over the last two years - are quickly disappearing but I'm doing any work that I can get to help pay the bills.
It would be wonderful if innocent folk such as myself could be in some way immunised against the recession. As it is, we're going down too.
I hope all the plastic-wielding credit guzzlers of this country (and others) are pleased with their four wheel drive monster trucks, 40" flat-screen tvs and iPhones. Perhaps they can sit out the recession looking through the photos taken on their 4-star all expenses paid holidays in paradise?
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#182
I know what you mean but with the good people on here I am sure we can negotiate our way around the risks.
We are not looking for an angry mob or a cosy chat. Something in-between, intelligent debate and outcome but with impact of some description, if we need to convince a'celeb or two' to do that, that is waht we need to do.
What happens when the angry mob disperses? Someone has got to have some ideas on the table and as far as I can see it is likely to be outside what any of the traditional parties can offer who have become institutions in themsleves.
#184
I hope that means you will join us, if so track down 'vegetable growers posts on Paul masons blog and follow the links.
Not my idea by the way Somali Pirates who is too busy spending his 3million at the moment to post I think.
Hopefully he can spare afew quid to hire a hall somewhere in london.
Jericoa
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Something to make you laugh!
A serving from the arch capitalist himself... who annoyingly grins even more the TB.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/7859422.stm
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185
I am with you entirely on this
The only debt I have is my mortgage and much smaller than they would like me to have. I have saved every month for year and am building little nest just in case, have not gone on holidays for years because all is so expensive and I need new doors and windows for my house. Like a 5 year plan I am allocatings bits and bobs to be without debt. I make small additional payments to my mortgage as and when I have a bit of spare cash
I now have lost my job will need to rely on those savings to help me through, along with my redundancy payment. Yet I have done nothing wrong. I am not the type of cutsomers bank are after, I am not a compusive shopper. All I have ever done is buy what I needed when I had the money for it. and just like you 185 I am paying for it.
A boring customer I am sure, there was a time when banks were that borings.
Sensible spending and managing need to be tought at schools, without being broke or claiming poverty I have been teaching my children about not wasting money. We live well without flashing money about.
Did any of you used to watch the Bank of Mum and Dad programmes on BBC2
At the end of the the day I have done nothing wrong, my kids have done nothing wrong, yet, we have to deal with the added stress to our daily lives.
This is why so many of us can get angry about Davos, are they all in touch with reality?
Politicians are all the same, all fighting their own corners and only looking after their own interests
On the bright side, much less junk mail about banking servces credit card and the rest. Will keep the shredder through
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The global economic model is imploding and now the European model is going the same way. Neither are fit for purpose.
Both totally undemocratic dreamed up by the greedy not needy who thought they'd cracked it and never imagined there would have to be a plan B if it all fell apart.
There can be no solution until the people are given their democratic rights back to choose which way they want their own countries to go.
This is the age of people power and if those elected do not listen now there will be absolute chaos from one country to another.
The weazle words coming out of Downing Street are an insult and will only make this festering boil erupt altogether.
If anyone says they didn't see this coming then they are fools for everyone I have spoken to has wondered why it has taken so long.
Giving everyone what they want keeps them quiet but taking it away can have grave consequences.
There can be no economic progress until the country puts its house in order and that means reversing all the rancid employment laws that have come out of the EU.
They were kept from us because we were too stupid to understand.
Now we understand them all too well.
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Hi
Looking for details of public sending
http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/data_forecasts_index.htm
But the best bit is actually this
______________________
HM Treasury accepts no responsibility for the accuracy of material published in this comparison.
____________________
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It is clear that the global economy crashed
for structural reasons, as your commentators
have said, but it will be difficult to fix.
The world economy may break up into trading
blocks, for political reasons. This would not
be good.
But, you Brits tend to underrate yourselves;
like the US, you have an excellent technical
infrastructure, and the way forward for you
is global capitalization of intellectual property,
not manufacturing per se.
A supporting view is provided here.
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186 - Jericoa
I totally concur with your thoughts on the angry mob, however what I think is needed is some form of civil disobedience akin to that practised by Martin Luther King, Ghandi and others.
Also please whatever you do, do not even entertain the thought of getting a 'celeb' on board. It is the 'celeb' culture and all that surrounds it, that has led to the dumbing down of this once great nation.
Cheers for now.
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#186
An easy form of legal civil disobedience is for everyone to cancel their standing order/direct debit for Council Rates and insist on a paying in book, then pay when it suits you (but put the money aside each month as you dont want to be caught short), making them wait if services don't improve etc...... Try anything else and you find yourself on the wrong side of the law or incurring penalty costs.
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#193
Well thank you. We are unduly hard on ourselves.
We have buckets of talent, buckets!
I've been doing a lot of thinking and this bog helps.
2 points.
Balance
This is a crisis for every country.
To some extent, the nature of a crisis doesn't matter.
Suppose we had an all out war, or a blockade. How would we as a country survive. Smuggling goods across the border is difficult, since the North Sea can be pretty wild. We would need to have some basic means of getting on with it.
There is a concern that we don't have the basis of a manufacturing industry. Would we have enough skills and infrastructure to ramp up?
We are good at so many things. People are concerned about the balance of industires, I think.
We seem to have went through rounds of losing skills over the past few decades, many are left behind with either minimum wage or no wage. Then we realise the skills we lost were important. Always too late, naturally. So we import labour which has two effects.
a. Those left behind are still left behind.
b. Those who are still around with the skills fear they will be next to be deskilled and thrown on the scrap heap.
It is a fear. A real fear. Too many industrial or manual workers do not normally make a decent wage. Making it difficult to save for downturns etc.
Social
Can I suggest you watch Trainspotting? Was it an art-house type movie, mere entertainment or was it telling you what life is life for those lost to a downturn and left behind. Kids growing up facing no future - they do not live in a place where their parents have a future.....
I grew up in an area just like that. I was one of the very few lucky ones. I made it to University in the 80s - that was really breaking the rules for my little part of the world in those days. Everyone, and I mean everyone thougt I was a fruitcake. Teachers, friends, family neighbours. Everyone.
My friends from University with very different backgrounds had a really different take on that movie, so much so I did wonder if we had been watching the same film.
People are really frightened about where this crisis is going to take them and their families, not just now, but for generations. the ordinary guy doesn't want to suffer without these bankers and their friends being held to account. If the ordinary guy is going down there, then why not those who cooked this up?
The politicians need to honestly deal with this.
And this is not a fear restricted to the working class. I've been told for years, by the middle classes I have sometimes had to work with, that people like me should not be allowed to get such a good education and take all the good jobs, it is people like them over there (where I grew up) who are selling drugs to our kids... etc etc.
Are we going to have another North-South divide again? Another, long, expensive social mess to clear up.
I don't think we will have riots, but those old divisions have not been healed, they have been papered over. Very thinly. They will become very apparent if there is no sign of fairness from the people who are elected to do just that.
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For a long tome I have suggested that someone should call for a national one day strike for a an election for a new goverment in Britain BUT as the BBC is a part of the Labour party no chance. BUT althougth I cannot stand the French(sorry) how I admired their B*L** to get out on the streets and say Wrong is is wrong in any language.Bankers should pay for their crimes let the people judge.
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'... everything must change.......'
I have just read in Sunday's papers that Dairy Crest is carrying half a billion pounds * worth of debt............ and it doesn't own a single coo!
You betcha everything must change.
* They claimed -in their defence- that they had some cheese maturing in a shed somewhere. Errrr, but you've spent the money you'll get for it then?
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the uk government may seek to change euro law on jobs...quote from the bbc website...so that means all that garbage that brown went on about earlier, was untrue. it does pay to protest especially with a pathetic government like this that doesnt know if it s coming or going half the time,
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Everything will change because it always does there is nothing more contestant than change I know, it is my specialist subject, but I am always amazed at the number of people who fear it
Most people don’t like change because it tends to be initiated elsewhere most find themselves reacting to the forces of change rather than directing the change
You have to make the effort get ahead decide what you want the future to look like and set your stall out to achieve it if you don’t then you will have to accept the change that others create for you and on past record I think most of us would feel that what others have done is mainly for themselves rather than for us, or society.
If you want it to be different tomorrow you must do things differently don’t expect to do the same and make a difference and don’t expect the change that others want to suit you so remember the words of Ghandi - be the change you want to see
Change is not easy and this time it will need massive consultation, thought through to conclusion consideration and very broad church cooperation.
I am not suggesting tearing the social economic temple down, in the main the bankers and the politicians have done most of that already and we have to be careful we don’t rebuild the same building we had which our politicians seem to think is the answer. We need to look very hard at what we have done and how it got us here and then decide on a plan that will take us where we want to go.
The opportunity’s now relentlessly lobby your representatives and tell them what you want to see in the future of Britain, of the World.
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its browns worst nightmare people protesting on the streets,good keep at it lads.
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I am sick to the back teeth of BBC journalists constantly reminding us (as if we need reminding) that we're in for a period of doom and gloom. It's already a self-fulfilling prophecy; people's mood is definitely influenced by what they're being told about the situation.
I therefore ask the BBC - and the journalists who comfy jobs are financed by licence-fee payers - to back off.
Out here in the real world I'm trying to run a small business and you're all doing me no favours whatever. Perhaps Mr. Peston would like to get down off his pedestal and try and run a business in the current climate?
I thought not.
Thank you.
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Everything Has Changed
The first economic tsunami to hit these shores was in a way caused by the sub-prime crisis in the US exposing the fragility of the banking model, this has been dealt with by various governments trying to stabilise the banks in question.
The second economic tsunami has not yet hit, the longer it drags the sea out, the bigger it will be.
Large corporates will be unable to refinance and will go under dragging a whole raft of good businesses with them. There will be third and fourth waves but I think they will be aftershocks, battering the wreckage left after the second one (the Big One)
I'm pretty sure that we cannot hold back the tide.
I'm pretty sure that when we survey the wreckage this time next year, the whole world will look a lot different.
I could be really down about this (well I am I suppose) but when all said and done, I believe that there are enough good people out there who want a better world, a better way. One built on fairness and respect, honesty and openess.
And I believe that the good people, the honest, open and fair people will not stand by this time and let the narrow minority hijack proceedings for their own self interest.
They have had their day and have been found wanting.
They should count their lucky stars that it is the good, honest, open and fair people who are going to be running things in the future because the alternative for the free-marketeers, exploitative corporations and bad bankers is not worth thinking about.
That's my tuppence
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# 195 canihavenothing
You've touched on my biggest gripe in all of this nonsense: the Labour Government's utter contempt for democracy (see my earlier post at # 139).
It's astonishing to note the speed with which Gordon Brown has adopted the mantle of (economic) wartime leader. He's taking enormous liberties with the British people's natural quiescence and goodwill.
We're now in a desparately weak condition as a global trader; the next 10 - 20 years will be very, very difficult indeed. Brown is playing fast and loose with our economic and political systems, primarily for his own ends: his ego and his neck. Given that he's an unelected leader, his arrogance is all the more remarkable.
Come the election (or revolution at this rate), Gordon Brown will, at last, get his come uppance; history will probably mark him down as this country's most disastrous (unelected) Prime Minister (with Blair a close second).
It's desparately sad and frustrating that Brown is clinging to power the way that he is, with us having no constitutional mechanism for kicking him out now. At heart, Brown's behaviour is dishonourable - which pretty much sums up the the man if you look at his behaviour in office this past 10 years.
In this sense, we're no better as a society than some of these 2nd and 3rd World nations where the populace is now taking to the streets with a vengeance. Brown is banking on good old British tolerance to hang on to power.
What on earth has this country come to, eh?
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#198
I think I read the same book as you, once.
Will the following work -
30 million people or there abouts. Each decides what they want for themselves.
What you get is 30 million businesses, no employees.
I trashed the book. A bit unrealistic in a global economy. A bit Thatcherite, really.
Of course change is not easy. People do not have total control of their lives to make the descions they want. That is life.
The engineer scientist working for Glaxo who loves his job, loves his home, near to his family, friends etc. His kids go to a good school etc. He has made his choice. He has what he wants.
No he is facing the loss of his job.
That means he will loose his house either due to moving to somewhere he doesn't want to be or defaulting.
He sent out his stall, went for it, got it and lost it through no fault of his own.
It will work for some, not not all.
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# 200 billbored
Like you, sir, I own and run a small business. However, unlike you I do not believe that commentators (including the BBC) are talking down the current situation (generally speaking).
The fact is that we're in one unholy mess. You can pick and choose who you blame, but I think that the British political elite (ha!) is culpable. The Labour Party has been on watch and they've made the mother of all disasters of their time in office. The Tories are guilty of having spent the past decade trying to look and sound like the Labour Party to win votes.
The common theme has been politicians desparate to get into power as an end in itself. Now we're going to pay for politicians' crass incompetence and lust for power.
I'm keen to understand the realities of this crisis so that I can deal with them. I'm not convinced that exhorting journalists and other commentators to talk-up the situation helps me or anyone else.
For the first time in my life (I'm 51 years old, and and served for 20 years in the armed forces), I'm with the street protestors right now. That's how bad it is. Our democracy is shot; our politicians are an ocean-going disaster; this crisis could sink us if we don't 'do something'.
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#200 billbored
It doesn't matter if you are an employer or an employee. The situation is what it is.
Now if you want to be an ostrich and bury your head in the sands then go right ahead. Or you can choose to find out more by keeping up with sites like this and keep yourself informed.
If you read here on a regular basis then you will see that we believe that there is too much cuddling-up to the government by BBC journos.
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This comment was removed because the moderators found it broke the House Rules.
Ed Iglehart
I do not underestimate Schumacher's legacy- but I wrote the view that I expressed to him at the time of the publication of "Small is Beautiful". And I still think that it was a lost opportunity. The early seventies was still just about a "window" from which it was possible to see things differently.
As for my "mis-characterisation of Adam Smith's great work".
I think that most commentators would rate his insight into specialization and the division of Labour, along with international specialization in those areas of economic activity in which a population has comparative advantage, as having been of inestimable significance for at least the hundred years after 1776. If not a "road map" he provided the confidence that free market Economics would provide an "Invisible Hand" that would show the way.
My "slur on Scotland" was really based upon the age old Lowland Scottish experience that caused so much resentment as for example in 1745 when the Highlanders yet again swept out of their mountain fastnesses and captured Edinburgh, and made free with that City.
But, if Adam Smith promoted the idea of just picking on one thing and building a whole way of life upon it, Sir Walter Scott popularised the Highland values, so that these kind of "Highland" virtues seemed to be exactly what was required in a cruel world based upon the struggle for the Survival of the Fittest.
As for "answering for" anything, I have no time for any blame games. But we all have to take responsibility for our actions. And, of course, the English must take full responsibility for deciding that the geniuses of the Scottish Enlightenment were a great asset for a backward and unbookish England. Somehow the James Watt and Matthew Boulton partnership, with its capacity to sell POWER on demand, summed up an essence of the Anglo-Scottish relationship.
By the middle of the century a writer like Charles Kingsle could agree with the later neo-Fascist works of Thomas Carlyle, one of Adolf Hitler's favourite authors.
Of course the combination of all of these factors contributed to the aggressive, and expansionist political economic systems that sought to change the World through the greatness of nationalist powers like Great Britain, the New Germany, the USSR, and internationalist ones like the Class Struggle.
But, as in today's epic struggle between Federer and Nadal- conflict seems to lead naturally to tension, waves and cycles such as those that have long plagued the modern economic system, and the current crisis, as many people have pointed out, is just the most recent slump in a long line.
But I noted that the most recent waves of strikes the last two days seem to be based once again largely in areas that saw a brief nineteenth century flowering of prosperity based upon one core industry or group of inter-related industries. These left depressed areas, in many ways little different from the ghost towns of the nineteenth century gold rushes, when their one reason for existing existed no more.
Casseroleon
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Mad_Mad_Max #57 makes a good observation... you may disagree with China's regime but they are engineers with a plan to build useful infrastructure. By one means or another they've got their population to go along with this vision and put it into practice. That's also pretty much what happens after a huge natural disaster or a war. We are facing a human-made disaster of the highest stupidity imaginable, because we all believed we could use "financial engineering" to make money for nothing. Someone (actually an awful lot of people who I'm sure other contributors will be only to willing to fill in) forgot that in order to build real wealth, you actually have to make or do things that people need. The key to solving this is to remember that money is itself just another human invention.... when people say "we don't have the budget to do this, that or the other.." that's junk. You really need to ask "do we have the WILL to do this... is there a NEED?" Especially in what passes for the global economy, we've all got far too beholden to money as if it is some kind of fundamental resource.... it's people and what they can do who are the main resource. Actually, there is not a shortage of people. OK, we have to be a bit careful about how we use the planet's resources too.
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You have to keep in mind what it is that motivates the person - politicians, commentators, bankers, whatever - within (advisedly!) the rules of the particular game in which they find themselves. For politicians, its to win votes and get power. For commentators and journalists, it's to get more attention than their competitors. These motivations unfortunately all play out over the very short term. If we want to get poiticians who actually want to make the country work properly (which takes more than just one term), without an eye to the short-term measures, we'll need a system that rewards long-term societal building. Likewise, commentators will need to be measured by something that takes into account objectivity, substance and truth, rather than headlines. But humans always have been suckers for a soundbite.... Sorry, I don't have an answer. And as for bankers, well...
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Dear mr.Preston,
I feel saddened listening to this discussion.
Whilst your participants obviously understand where the problem started, I do not believe they have emohasised enough the problems of the inflated financial situation we are all in due to the mismanagement of the financial ssystem, particularly in the western countries.
There is a undeclared sunami of debt waiting to envelope the world's financial and therefore the commercial/trading environment, governments either are in denial, or do not understand the full implications or are too politically frightened for their own existence to admit it and deal with it brutally. If they do not do the latter and eliminate debt and asset inflation then we will eventually all die in the debtor's prison
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Post 203.
Thank you for your observations.
Not sure about the same book and strange to say most people today know that being in business is tough with about 60 percent of all new business failing every year and 80 percent not making it to three years. So infact many people will opt for different personal economic models from artist to vocation to civil servant to entrepreneur and even a few self employed or business owners
But that is not what life is entirely about. It may be to most who right in an economics editors blog, yet wealth riches and happiness are not only measured by money and to many people other tings rank far higher in importance than money, especially if you’ve been on the roller coaster of having money, loosing it, having it, loosing it. Now that opens up a very long and tedious debate because in every sense money of its self is totally worthless it is a token a promise and shrouds have no pockets
Life’s standards and values are better served by many other things of real value health, food, love, comfort, fulfilment, recognition, achievement. For which money may sometimes but not always be exchanged.
However in moving on may I suggest you try a little deeper understanding of your own points and simply reread each paragraph of your post and at the end of each ask the question why?
You may be surprised at the conclusions you come to if you do it with an open mind
But then most of us would be surprised if we asked why, a little more often, rather than accepting the statement or accepting it but interpreting it with our values in default of not knowing those of its creators.
Problem is we will not find out for we especially our public representatives are generally too locked into the sound bite, the quip and the one minute pitch to hold any meaningful debate that may draw a valuable consensus for the benefit of developing a model of socio-economic success for mankind..
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I posted this on Paul Masons blog but after reading the last few comments, here would be a better place
It's a Principle Thing
is it a good idea 'in principle' to ripoff your neighbor
is it a good idea 'in principle' to enslave your neighbor
is it a good idea 'in principle' to sell your children into slavery
no, then why are you allowing it to happen ?
HMG acts in YOUR name, not anybody else's, but YOURS which makes YOU responsible.
If you are happy for them to continue what they have been doing then fine, if you aren't then do something about it.
The time is now.
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To be frank Robert i wouldnt take any advice
from your panel of guests.
GET SOME REAL PEOPLE WHO WORK FOR A
LIVING PLEASE?
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#200 you have my sympathy, but...
I have to agree with #204, this problem is not being caused or made worse by the media.
I think there is a realisation beginning to develop that there is no return to how it was before.
We are in for a time of massive change, we can approach that positively or negatively, it's up to us but change there will be.
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"It's the end of the world as we know it... and I feel fine."
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A number of comentators and politicians are calling for a "New Capitalism" that is more people friendly.
They obviously have not understood the localist agenda, which until the present crisis broke, was heavily promoting a small local world.
The problem with capitalism today is that we have built very large and powerfull companies which exist for their own sakes. The actions they take are always for the good of the company and never really for the good of the community.
Of course they will be able to point to community based projects that they have sponsored, but these are nearly always PR smoke and mirrors and rarely genuine.
The reason for this behaviour is simple and understandable, they have to do everything for their own good to ensure that they remain the fittest and therefor survive.If they don't they get swallowed up by the nearest predator.
They will use their undoubted influence and money, to persuade legislators frame regulations which suit them to the disadvantage of their smaller competitors. They will squeeze their suppliers to give them the last penny becuse they must be cheaper and more profitable than the next big beast.Whilst they will have hugh human resource departments, the business and it's prosperity will nearly always come before the work force and the community.
The solution is to create a society which favours small individual businesses. A society which favours the local rather than the global.Not to tie up businesses with red tape that only the big boys can cope with because they can afford a whoe department to do it.
An imagantive tax regime should be able to create this.
Then business will genuinely have a social concience because it will be local, it's owners and managers will be involved on a day to day basis with the community it works in and the people it employs.
The benefits of Capitalism will be shared more evenly amongst the population as we will have many small lower case businesses rather than a few big Cs
This walks together with a localist society with local responsibility, without state micromanagement. With local business that knows and lives amongst it' community and spreads it's wealth more evenly.
It is obvious to anyone who thinks about it,that a society where the idividual is micro managed from the centre will break down. Take away all responsibility from the induividual and the individual will behave irresponsibly.
This government and more particularly this Prime Minister has taken all responsibility to itself and left nothing for the man in the street.
It is extraordinary that the Prime Minister is able to stand up and make a speech, as he did at Davos, where he claims that the British character will see us through these troubled times as we pull together; does he not know that, by his and his partie's micro management, he is removing all the character of the British by turning them into nothing more that a flock of sheep to be herded, vaccinated,fattened,and shorn for their taxes?
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Looking at the results of Davos, they do not have a clue what to do. Get rid of these people, they are clowns and in the pocket of big finance. We need leaders not banksters. GB is a bedfellow of the very people that created this mess, the interview on the politics show was about giving credence to puting huge amounts of money into a failed system, because there is no alternative. How many times have I herd that excuse throughout history. Get some balls GB and do something that does not benifit the banksters. Your global banking system is like the Titanic, unsinkable, I do not think so. A bit like the band playing while the unsinkable ship went down, no one could understand it but the truth is you believe the bull**it you are fed. We do not need lifeboats as this ship is unsinkable. The vast majority of the population of UK LTD know more than you do. however we have a lot more to loose than you do.
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#211
The basic needs of all humans are: food, shelter and drinking water. Once those basic needs have been met, humans will then attend to other aspects of life such as fulfilment.
In theis economic crisis, thousands are losing their jobs, thousands are defaulting on their mortgages. Employment opportunities are shrinking.
Yes, change is not pleasant. I hate to think of the man having to face taking his kids out of their home, to homelessness. as a father, he will feel he as failed to meet the basic needs of his family. They have no shelter, no security.
To use Change Management skills in such a situation are highly inappropropriate.
What do you think he will say to you over the following few days if you calmly explain that he should set out his stall and go for it?
It is really simple. Nice change management techniques will not mean a thing to him. He will be far too angry and almost certainly ashamed of himself. His needs far more immediate than that. He was living his dream. Now, he has lost his home. He needs a roof and he needs it now.
My point about 30 million people setting up businesses. OK, I didn't explain myself clearly. The powers that be, the bosses, the people who were the drivers behind this massive financial crisis went for their dreams. The wanted big, they wanted rich. they set out their stall and they went for it. There are far more losers in that race than winners. To suggest that if you set out your stall and go for it, you will succeed is true for some, but not for the many. Most of us will never have our dream job. There is only one winner of the 100 m sprint. Those who don't win are still there. But at the very least, all of us need to find a way of paying the bills.
I consider myself to be one of the lucky ones. I've travelled more than I would ever have thought possible. I've achieved more than I would have ever thought possible. Yet I've never been able to afford savings or consumerism. I've had one great financial year in my entire life and what I called great wold be scoffed at by most. I have a pension that was worth one weeks grocery shop a year and no idea what it is worth now. I have a good life. It is not me that I am worrying about. It is the people in this country, and all the other countries affected.
But at the end of the day, there are no economic or health benefits to these secondary needs if you have no job, if your savings have been wiped out on the markets, and you see no possibility of a better future. Right now no one can see that far to feel secure.
People aren't demonstrating around the country because they can't achieve recognition or love. They are demonstrating because they fear for the roof over their heads.
To apply change management tools to a catastrophe in your life and your country is simplistic. Our economy is teetering, on a global basis, and people are scared.
Change management tools have a place in the world in the correct context. I really don't think this is it. If it was that simple, no one would be worried.
I really hope we are not going to have the government suggesting the newly unemployed take Life Coaching classes on viewing periods of unemployment.
There has already been food riots in places like Egypt over the past year or so. People have died fighting for bread. You can't change manage this thing so easily.
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'Business As Ususal'
no doubt that this is the title of Peston's next blog
But I say NO
sorry mate but Enough is Enough
We can send a message, loud and clear to al large multinationals and global operations
They have had their time and have been found wanting.
The time of good, honest, open and fair people has come
They are not faceless big business.
Let us stand face to face
And let it be known that if we withdraw our business they don't have one.
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"Everything will change" - Robert Peston
How do you feel, having seen it?
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Casseroleon,
Whew! Sorry I spoke... ;-)
Slainte!
ed
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Don't you feel foolish trying to sell the same old horse poop? WE HAVE HEARD IT ALL BEFORE!!! However, citizens in the UK and USA have had enough now. How much of the global, international free for all, crap do you think we will take? IT DID NOT WORK!!! YOU PEOPLE, NOT CITIZENS, BROKE THE BANK. Now without shame you are taking trillions more, and leaving citizens to pay these UNPAYABLE bills...we don't even have a say with either party. All the democracy talk looks like so much trash talk today. We see such unfairness, with pure racism and lost jobs taken out of our countries, that make us poorer nations. What kind of PLAN is this to turn America into a 3rd World hell hole nation, and the Kingdoms into little, poor European backwaters?This to feed greedy bankers, stooge politicians and more bad management. Who are the taitors who have thought back deed this up. They need to be brought to court. This may well turn out to be the end of the west as a great power. These thefts and crimes still coming, and politicians are trying to think up new ways to enslave us, bilk us further and charge citizens for their inhumaine crimes. We need something new, THE TRUTH.
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#222, rwbennett, as for the truth, as long as our
government can print money, it will never happen.
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This comment was removed because the moderators found it broke the House Rules.
This comment was removed because the moderators found it broke the House Rules.
I'm not a clever man. I didn't go to University. I haven't got any A levels. B ut I can see what is wrong and I can see that what we are doing is wrong.
This entire crisis has been caused by 3 things - greed, criminal complicity and stupidity.
The bankers greed, the politicians criminal complicity and our stupidity.
The banks knew what they were doing and did it on purpose. This cannot be an accident. Therefore to give them billions and allow them to continue as before means it is going to continue to get worse and worse.
The government with their 'light touch of regulation' didn't cause it but they are wholy responsible. The basic rule - as every worker will tell you - is never trust anyone where money is concerned. So why did the governments behave like morons and believe they could trust the banks.
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I believe we will see a rebirth of something approximating to that glorious decade, the Sixties, when the current woes have burnt themselves out.
I also believe Britain will, with America, be first out of the gloom.
England swings like a pendulum do.....
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looking at the situation in this country what can you expect.
the people were fooled into electing a self interested group who's governing ideas are to hand every thing over to european central government, forcing the ecconomy into major downturn then failing those who elected them in favour of big pay offs from nameless sources.
over the last ten years they have given more to europe untill now they are toothless and a waste of taxpayers money.
in these ecconomic times british interests should be placed first the needs of the people of these island should come first reguardless of european law.
the government should remove foriegn workers, nationalise and consolidate british industries, rebuild this countries independence putting the great back into great brittian.
if this joke of a government are unwilling to secure the british future may be electing a government of the people by the people for the people would be a better way, scrap stupid party politics during times of crisis like now.
ask the people of these islands what they realy want and how to obtain it.
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Re my post 206
So the moderators don't speak French
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#1 kiki_dread
"Africans will be alright"
- 1 in 6 children dies before the age of 5
- over 12 million orphaned by AIDs
- 200,000 child slaves
- 120,000 children taking part in armed conflicts
They will be thrilled they are "alright"
Get over youself kiki - the Poples Poet thing is so 1980s
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Economist Thomas Sowell defends corporate lobbying as "simply an example of a group having better knowledge of its interests than the people at large do of theirs." (from Wikipedia)
So, people at large, are you happy with that?
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Post 218
Thank you for entering the debate.
Yes it is a very trying time for many but if we don’t want these times to keep coming round we have to do something different and those best placed to make a case for reform and most impassioned for change are those whose lives have been thrown into chaos by the promises of others to deliver perpetual growth, wealth for all, an end to boom and bust etc.
The greedy, gullible, gross side of society has failed the cooperative, compassionate, community side. The me centric has had it over the we centric.
If we don’t do something now to change what is a living hell to some and a looming threat to most then we will sink back into complacency settle for the mediocre and drift into the next crisis with the rest.
Next you may also find my change management tools a little different to the norm but then I take a slightly different perspective if we have got it right leave it alone, no change for change sake, if we haven’t then lets put it right but plan it properly effectively and at the right time, that is well in front of the problem.
As it is too late to do anything about this recession lets learn the lessons and put things in the right direction at the maximum distance before the next one.
Of course we can go for the very British alternative of offering every sympathy dropping a few quid in the charity box and do absolutely nothing to reform the system process and society we live in. After all we have done sort of OK and there are lots of people in the world far worse off than us.
Well fine if that comforts you knowing others are worse off but next time it might be us that’s the worst off, or our children that inherit the society we left to them and what will socio-economic policy do then drop a few quid in our/their bowl and then carry on again as normal.
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230. At 09:41am on 02 Feb 2009, thinkb4 wrote:
#1 kiki_dread
"Africans will be alright"
+
the message on the table was to help them
you can take it or leave it its up to you
at least it was said and then rejected
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Jericoa
We started preparing for a pressure group before Christmas. I did a couple of draft websites. Things have gone quiet since then, with hliday excess and January Gloom, but it's still there.
[Unsuitable/Broken URL removed by Moderator]
There will be more activity soon - at least on my part. I've been trying to stir up the education debate in Jan with letters to Lord Drayson, the science minister and others. This to me is an economic matter too.
I note Mr Cameron's initiative on maths education this morning. While I welcome the principle, I am very dubious about putting a "celebrity" in charge with at best peripheral experience in the real educational world. What's more - her involvement in finance advertisements, encouraging people to remortgage and spend the difference was regarded as somewhat dubious even in the boom times. Now of course it looks even worse.
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One of problems we have now in adjusting to what the next few years bring is that people have lost all sense of what #218 calls the basic human needs.
We are holidaying in UK this year because I told my family that pound was too weak and future too uncertain. I was greeted by a chorus of disapproval - apparently eveyone else at school is still going to Florida, Spain, Canaries etc etc - the UK population have not got the message yet.
We have a perfectly functional kitchen - my wife (who is actually quite sensible with money) wants to change it all round - cost c £2k - because it will look better.
The adjustment from where we are to a return to looking after our basic human needs would be good for society and the environment IMO - however if that is where we are heading there is going to be a lot of trouble, unrest and casualties (hopefully mainly financial casualties) along the way.
The people at large are not ready and do not believe that change is really here - or certainly do not appreciate what that means.
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Er Inglehart
Never aplogise for expressing honestly held opinions.
I must thank you for having bothered to read my post and take it seriously.
As I have spent more than half a century working out an alternative understanding- which may well be a load of nonsense- trying to say anything brief and to the point must inevitably leave 99.9% of my ideas unexpressed.
But my nonsense is based upon (a) personal experience (b) a fair amount of historical knowledge that occasionally suprises people on the BBC History Message Board, and (c) 37 years of teaching in the rough Inner City which is where I believed the S*** would hit the fan.
And my nonsensical world view has survived the test of credibility with most of my pupils.
I am sorry to offend anybody. But a few years ago I wrote a piece on the prospect of a third Scottish Succession. The two previous ones saw the accession to power of bookish and rigidly self-believing Scotsmen. And both led to revolution. The first was James VI/I whose attitude to government produced the English Revolution. The second was Lord Bute and his pupil George III that produced the American Revolution. The third is Gordon Brown, for though we have had other Scottish PM's, as far as I am aware they did not just come to that position by a succession that by-passed the electoral process.
You may or may not wish to look at some of my pieces on the Casseroleon page of the Hitch Hiker's Guide web-site.
As many of the posts on this thread have emphasised it is a time for knocking all our heads together.
Regards
Casseroleon
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Maybe we should try to discuss how we can rectify things.
I believe we must focus on several things in order to put economic matters right. It is clear what the mistakes were that got us into this mess:
1: Massive redistribution of wealth from the many to the few
2: Media encouragement to aspire to material wealth. The worship, rather than critical analysis, of rich celebrity lifestyles
3: Banks lending to anyone seeking such material aspiration without due consideration to collateral or ability to repay
4: Monumental greed, and indifference towards those having "failed" to gain such material wealth
We cannot ask banks to lend again, and then dictate that they are responsible in their lending. I wouldn't extend credit to a business in this recession - would you?
A new approach is needed to tackle the urgent immediate problems of insolvency and unemployment. The already-wealthy have benefitted disproportionately over the last 30 years and therefore must bear the greatest burden in repaying to society what they have received. Speculation in property, land, shares in businesses and foreign currency transactions must be taxed. A 1% tax on FC transactions could yield $6bn a day according to Tobin. A super tax on income from savings above £10,000 pa must be implemented. Private schools must be de-registered as charities and collect VAT on fees. Unimproved property values should be taxed to discourage speculation, and moves towards a single land tax as proposed by Henry George should be made to ultimately replace income and sales taxes.
What should this new revenue be spent on?
Income tax thresholds should be raised to what they should be, had Thatcher and subsequent governments not frozen them. Working people should earn £12,000 pa before they start to pay tax. Employer's NI contributions should be scrapped. Any current tariffs or taxes on free and fare trade between individuals and businesses should be scrapped.
A government works programme should be implemented to rebuild and repair infrastructure and develop a new national water grid, implement improvements to the railways and transport systems through re-nationalisation. This should be done on a national basis through newly formed government restructuring departments.
Mortgage holders facing difficulty can opt to convert their mortgages to a lower "rent" payment which can be re-converted when their circumstances improve. They will then maintain a permanent address to assist in maintaining family stability and as a base for employment applications. Domestic repossessions will be prohibited.
It is imperative that no one profits financially from this crisis and international steps must be taken to tax any such profits in order to ensure this never happens again. No further taxpayers' money should be paid to the banks, the share price must be allowed to fall and when cheap enough, the government will then pay market price for the shares to acquire the banks wholesale and absorb them into the Post Office.
We must then decide upon how we can tame greed and aspiration for material wealth. After all, even the richest of us can only wear one suit of clothes at a time.
What do we really need in order to be happy?
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Surely everything can't be as bad as it's painted can it? After all, we have Gordon in charge and having saved the world, he still says we are well placed to weather the coming recession.
Who are we, mere mortals, to disagree with the mighty Brown. Even that revered sage Anatole Kaletsky in The Times recognises Brown's brilliance and was this morning calling for our glorious leader to be rewarded with a Nobel Prize for his efforts.
HA HA HA HA HA HA - you have to be kidding. This is the biggest joke I have ever heard.
Brown STARTED the property bubble by raiding the pensions and forcing people to look for other assets to invest in and FAILED to control it when it got too out of hand. He FAILED to regulate the banks properly, and FAILED to appreciate that house prices are not a suitable bedrock to base an entire economy on.
In short he has FAILED the country utterly and completely - but before you Brownites out there get on your high horses and whinge about another Tory post, I'm not saying they would have done any better. All I'm saying is that it really sticks in my throat that our glorious leader is parading the world stage spouting irrelevant homilies to himself when his country is spinning out of control and he clearly does not have a clue what to do about it.
There should be room for one more repossession - that of No 10 Downing Street.
Pass the gin.
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Following on from earlier rant and touching on GRIMUPNORTH77's point about Basic Human Needs, we really need to focus on what's important.
With the economy heading over a cliff, for how much longer is it going to be viable for us all to buy a new car every 3 years or to have a foreign holiday every summer? Or even to be able to buy expensively imported food at an out of town supermarket?
Are these Basic Human Needs? Is a big shiny flatscreen TV absolutely neccessary for your continued existence? Will you drop dead if your car isn't bigger and newer than your neighbour's?
For the last 10 years we have been forcefed on credit, but this has to end. Sure it's going to be painful, sure it's going to hurt, but is continuing the borrowing binge actually make it any better or just pass the problem along and make it worse?
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Hi folks
Just joined as a blogger after following your comments for the last six months. Facinating (pariculary Jerico and bob rockets comments... thanks). But also very worrying...
As a manager of a small locally based charity type not for proffit business, I'm lucky enough to still have a job at the moment and i've done what I think is right work wise. We buy locally, employ local staff and contractors wherever possible. I'm being told now by GB that this is wrong? This seems crazy as the initial rational behind our policy was to reduce our global footprint... just a common sense approach really.
My question is what to do now? Change must happen, I've felt this for ages but how? How can we have a say about the future? I have no confidence in our politicians, am outraged at recent actions but feel powerless.
I'm sure I speak for many more people out there.
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Me, I'm getting a bit long in the tooth, and I remember the days when those in charge understood what they were controlling.
Me, I'm attached to a company which was private, went into Administration, so re-nationalised, just across the road from New Scotland Yard.
What's this got to do with the 'Credit Crunch'? It was run by 'Project Managers'! (And still is!!!)
Hasn't the fact that all things get bigger, 'global', more complex, means they have got beyond the caperbilities of the vision and understanding of any one man.
Present solution, give it to a Project Manager who can sit in the middle and shove paper backwards and forwards around his Team. Upon his advice the Principles can act and end up bankrupting the banking system.
Future solution, when the recession has reduced the scale and banks are making money again, then common sence banking, within the control of one responsible person who understands the whole of the process with which he is dealing, will again be allowed to operate. It will, however, take a while for the mindset of those in charge to accept the need for the return to basics in all respects. In the meantime, we will all suffer.
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#3
"how many protesting can speak more than their own mother tongue ?"
We've an extra problem here in Wales. Even less students are taking foreign languages because Welsh is being forced upon the English speaking majority.
It's highly illogical. In South Pembrokeshire, where I live, the ancestral language would be Norse - at least that's what the place names and family names tell us. In North Wales the main genetic component of the indigenous population is Iberian - so they should learn Basque probably. Like Arabic, there is a great difference between where Celtic genes are, and where a Celtic language is spoken. You only leed to look at the highly Aryan Hitler, Goebbels etc, to realise how much nationalism is based on lies and wishful thinking.
On the other hand - if we do not want to be totally Balkanised in Britain, we have to realise that we are a community and look out for our collective needs. If free trade and globalisation makes that impossible, then we should opt out or renegotiate.
There's no point in Pan-European employment laws if we don't have Pan-European funded unemployment compensation and retraining - and taxation!
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Grim,
Too right! Everywhere I look, I see the "need" for improved roads, new runways, better cars, etc. It seems that we regard hypermobility as an individual "right"andThere's no placem like Homeed
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#235
Keep working (twice as hard), keep spending and do not retrench. Retrenchment will only prolong and exacerbate the problem.
If you can afford it, don't be a tightwad, buy her that new kitchen - someone somewhere will be glad that you have helped keep them in a job and that someone will be one less statistic on the dole, whose benefits we will all have to pay.
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brown is a nightmare,he is so arrogant,the problem we have here is all the political parties are the same..i can see real trouble brewing in this country,nobody is standing up for british workers.
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sabotage AND steal says it just how it "REALLY" is,BIG BUSINESS,THATS WHO`S RUNNING THIS COUNTRY,how many companies have you got shares in mr brown??????????,too say THAT we should depend on america and china for our economy[their economies are different too ours,and wont work here] [to see how their economy fairs before our own]is a "DISGRACE",are you sure your english mr brown?,you cant import cheap foreign goods and then expect our industry too survive,[we are an industrial nation surely you understand that of course "YOU" do][you know that wont work,even a dope like me can see what your doing,heres an example you want too get rid of the nhs,how do you do it?mmm,a thatcher idea,run it into the ground and WAIT and people will begin too say IM GOING PRIVATE THIS SERVICE IS RUBBISH[and the people who cant afford that what about them[us]GET YOURSELF A CARDBOARD BOX, AYE],very well accomplished mr brown,england is ours mate and we expect you too look after her,not europe or america,we want you too run our country the england way[too preserve her for our kids,AND US]not allow big business to screw the life out of it,.instead of ordinary folk having lots of different opinions[WHICH WERE CONNED INTO THINKING MAKES A DIFFERENCE]keeps us busy and not watching you and yours, we should have one[opinion] "YOU"and what you doing, stand together and make our ONE concern heard """""""""ENGLAND""""""",this all sounds very partiotic dosent it,i thought thats what being english meant,BEING PROUD ESPECIALLY SINCE A LOT OF OUR MUMS DADS,nannas and grandads[hail too each and everyone of them] GAVE THEIR LIVES FOR HER,you cant possibly want too make our country fail[on purpose]soley for "MONEY"AND BEING BUDDIES WITH OTHER COUNTRIES,i can scaresly believe our little island is dying and your letting it,"ENGLANDS GREEN AND PLEASENT LAND"....comes too mind....no one really minds who COMES to our"ONCE GREAT COUNTRY"or who doesnt [shall they remember who she is]is all,were all human beings together....anti european absoloutely,i doesnt work any other way....one more little thing................"ENGLAND"..................
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Er Casseroleon,
you might have returned the favour by reading my name ;-)Seriously, I shall have a look at the h2g2 page, and invite you to tipiglen
Salaam/Shalom/Shanthi/Peace
ed
P.S. If granted three wishes by some genie, I'd ask to go back in time enough to strangle James Watt at birth, or failing that to at least get Alex Bell and encourage the Wright Bros to stick to bicycles...Actually, the first big mistake was settling down and starting to farm - after spending less than three hours daily in getting a living, we opted for sixteen hours....but maybe it was fire, which led to sitting up all night and developing language, which eventually led to writing (sorry Homer and Hesiod), which gave us lawyers and today's document-based world, where the more abstract your occupation, the higher your pay-grade....Oh well. I, too, can go on and on and on...;-)
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I haven't read all of the comments on the current discussion, but realistically anyone who was born before 1945, and has participated in only the very slightest social chat during their lifetime would have seen this disaster coming before the last one finished in the early 90's, and certainly the second that the current government opened the financial floodgates '98 onwards. Anyway that's now by the board and some other whizz kid without a lot of business experience ( on current form probably a lawyer) will be left to sort out the mess. The question I ask is, has anyone told the upper footballing fraternity that there's a war on, or are they totally oblivious to the fact, 'cos gates eventually will suffer and the corporate side will virtually disappear along with the advertising revenue. Only Dubai financed clubs will survive.
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I'd have ordered the new kitchen by now
I'd be using a UK installer with UK manufactured units and an AGA or a cooker from Stoves
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TBarber,
Just a reminder that England/English is not the same as Britain/British. Lots of non-English British folk gave their lives too...
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Fumblewinter
The idea of the distribution of wealth from the many to the few has been tried: and it is one reason why we are in this mess. This is most obvious in the recent crisis because massive spending power was given in unsecured and hi-risk loans to people who then enjoyed the trappings of wealth without having to earn it.
For wealth is not money nor mere ownership of things. At the fall of Communism there was an ambitious distribution of the State-stakeholding to Soviet citiizens as shares. But- rather as happened in many of the enclosures in English eighteenth century agriculture- all that happened is that people cashed in their assets- which were somewhat devalued because the market had been flooded with them. And while the ordinary people got a short term money flow, other people amassed the huge industrial stakes that have created the Russian billionaires- and no doubt the Russian mafia too.
As long as we are still using the Adam Smith model in which the key to everything is "The Economy stupid", the important thing is not wealth, but meaningful employment for life that will generate wealth, so that a part at least of that new wealth can be directed to "The Common People" as individuals and as citizens within the State.
But, as we are seeing at the moment, without Effective Demand there is no call for Labour to work to produce Supply. And Effective Demand is based upon ability to pay, which is diminished when accumulated masses of wealth are allowed to flood out into small pools and puddles.
One of the Ministers in the post-war Labour Government told an American reporter "We have had our revolution. We did not cut off their heads. We cut off their wealth". This confident statement was based on the conviction of many people, notably lecturers from the London School of Economics like Attlee and Tawney, that experts like them would be able to run the Economy much more efficiently than Free Market Capitalism and they would also destroy Beveridge's giants that dedevilled British Society by setting up what Mrs Thatcher called "The Nanny State".
These solutions did not fulfill the confident hopes of their promoters.
It is interesting that two descendents of Josiah Wedgwood have today expressed an interest in trying to rescue the Wedgwood firm. I wonder if any of them will dare, if they do succeed, to go around the works as he did, and smashing to pieces any work that was not up to his exacting standards. For it was these standards that made the Tzar of Russia order a whole dinner service from a World Class pottery firm.
You see when you eliminate wealth from an economy, you get rid of the people who really can exercise choice and demand excellence, innovation and high-standards. By doing this in Britian we created a culture in which the quality of average British workmanship- once the best in the world- declined until those around the world who could afford to buy goods made by people hoping to earn British wages- stopped buying British-made goods. As British people also did. Mr Wilson's "Buy British" campaigns fell on largely deaf ears. The Morris and Austin Minors and the Mini were the mass-produced cars for a new "You've never had it so good Britain". But these were the kind of cars that posed little threat to our foreign competitors.
A very similar thing happened within the Soviet block. Personally I was very fond of my East German Wartburg motor car in the early seventies. It had a two-stroke engine and was based upon largely thirties technology. But only a few mavericks like me would bother to buy one outside of a Communist Command Economy in which the choice was either that or nothing... And under Communism the lack of choice and innovation began to make the "nothing option" not too unattractive. People turned to that good old Russian life-style based on being dead-drunk on vodka" as often as you could be.
Unfortunately, as the head of the CBI has just admitted, British industry- and presumably many of the "experts" and politicians too- did not realise that the only significant population in the World whose wealth was admired, or at least tolerated ( except by Muslim extremists) was the USA.. And, as we await the Oscars, we know that "making it in the USA" is still regarded as the secret to success.
So, in spite of his measured and "balanced" speech today, the Chinese Premiere is no doubt fully aware that the projected economic growth of China is inextricably connected with the fact that low Labour costs in China mean huge possibilities of increased production to sell to markets in the West, where people are still immeasurably more wealthy than the average Chinese peasant. And part of the fools gold reality of recent years has been that our wealth and privilege on a global scale have allowed us to buy all kinds of consumer goods at bargain prices.
Adam Smith was correct in believing that Economic activity is driven by the Market; and those people who want to able to finance ground-breaking and innovative creativity- even if it is artistic- need to find people who are able and willing to pay for the production of things that are world-class. Otherwise we end up as Beatrice Webb's grandfather said "rooting around like pigs in an orchard"- until we uproot and destroy the vegetation as greedy pigs tend to do.
Artists, of course, have long been aware that there are more important values and treasures than material ones- as several posters on this thread have pointed out.
Casseroleon
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Ed Inglehart
Tipiglen
Sorry about the name... From what you have written which seems to be about the change of life forced upon the Scottish Highlanders I would recommend my piece "Humanity and the Missing Link" as possibly exploring possible common ground.
Regards
Casseroleon
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Ed,
"Actually, the first big mistake was settling down and starting to farm - after spending less than three hours daily in getting a living, we opted for sixteen hours"
Presumably you mean as in farming for the landowner/baron or whatever? 16 hours a day seems a bit much if you only have to supply for your own needs. But I can see that it might be necessary if you have to feed, clothe and house the master, mistress and their court jester.
Or is it really such hard work up there? :o)
John
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John,
Precisely! The cycle goes something like this:1. Farming begins and is the occupation of most families
2. Settled housing clusters into hamlets, villages, towns, and eventually 'cities', and specialised occupations emerge and begin to increase.
3. Chieftain, Priest, Warrior, merchant and craft classes emerge as the culture stratifies.
4. Communicable diseases emerge and increase due to living in one place closely...
5. All the while, population grows, due to the surplus of food, and the proportion engaged in agriculture decreases.
6. Soil becomes exhausted and/or salinized due to irrigation....
7. Civilisation collapses.
8. Start again somewhere else
The only difference this time is that there's nowhere else to go....
N.B. The Chinese had managed to avoid these cysles to a large extent, and were still farming the same soils after forty centuries, but now, they're mechanising and watching their soils go downriver....
See "Farmers of Forty Centuries"
And "A Green History of the World" By Clive Ponting
;-)
ed
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Ed,
this conversation would be a lot quicker via the lobby group!
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Casseroleon,
Fool me once, ....;-)Complain about this comment
>this conversation would be a lot quicker >via the lobby group!
Lobby group?
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Ed Iglehart of Tipiglen
Have I finally got it right?
As for your preference for the simple life, my generation yearned- as Joni Mitchell put it in Woodstock - to "get back to the garden."
But a BBC TV experiment of that era- that had a re-showing and update recently- saw volunteers trying to recreate Bronze Age life. It was all very well until one of the children had a toothache!
There is much that is wrong with the modern world, but the twins who were recently rescued by the RAF from a remote Scottish island, reminded us that people now feel entitled to medical treatments on the NHS that cost multiples of the gross income of people working these long hours you mention in the modern economy.
And Naomi Klein in "No Logo" expresses in the strongest terms her resentment at being forced by her parents to "endure" the back to nature "hippy" life that they imposed on her..
Perhaps to put in a word for modern parents, they do face the very real problems of "why can't I have this. Everyone else's parents let them "--
Of course it is not an argument that strong minded parents give in to, but then - as part of a strong minded parenting team- your children can get labelled as being a "bit weird" and kids who do not belong.
There is no point in blaming anybody; and remedying this and other problems will require the cooperation of "all people of goodwill"- to update a favourite phrase of M.L. King.
As someone has said on this thread we need the spirit of such people once more, if not to give us a "road map", at least to point us along a road that we can all tread together.
Regards
Casseroleon
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#257, GoldtopUK : "Lobby group?"
If your Goldtop on blogger you're already a member. If not, click on my name and follow the clues :o)
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#257
Caught redhanded. Just trying to get another plug in...
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Robert Preston:
[Do you want to know how bad the recession will be and what kind of global economy will be built from the rubble? ]
Yes, I would like to know what the global economy will be rebuilt from the rubble and its after affects....
~Dennis Junior~
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We hear every day, and on many programmes how difficult it is to explain the current financial crisis.
It is actually very simple.
Money is a word we use to assign a value or worth attribute to an entity. Similarly kilogram is used to describe a weight attribute, and meter is used to describe distance, height etc.
A house, a car, a fridge and most physical entities have a weight, and they also have a value. Kg is a measured attribute while value is an assigned attribute. (Value attributes should assigned by a minimum of two independent persons/organisationa.)
For some strange reason banks themselves seem to have managed to assign huge values to quite a few non-physical entities. These only exists in our brains albeit there are documents, containing words, trying to explain them. Examples of non-physical entities are financial instruments/products/derivatives (or whatever we wish to call them) such as Credit Fault Swaps, Collateralised Debt Obligations (CDOs), Constant Proportion Debt Obligation (CPDOs).
All the values of these entities seem somehow to get into the GDP, but the reality is that they have little or zero values.
Many other people do necessary work that leaves no changes but their effort count towards the GDP.
Many physical entities, that contributed to the GDP when they were made no longer exist, and their value now is also zero.
The values for all the work in the past is, however, still with us in the form of values assigned to people and organisations/governments.
Since all these values from the past no longer can be related to existing entities that still can be assigned a value, we now have and imbalance and therefore have to adjust the value assignments.
This has happened many times before and will happen again, unless we undestand and treat money as an attribute about entities, rather than as an entity, which it is not.
Risk is another word that represents an attribute. However, if you do not identify the 'unwanted event', or some other term, that can be assigned a 'risk' than the word has no meaning.
Risk is assigned based on the probability of an 'unwanted event' actually happening and the Consequence if and when it happens.
From this follows that the current financial crisis, i.e. 'unwanted event' has a High Risk, merely due to its high Consequence. This is irrepective of the probability of it happening.
It has been acknowledged by the Primme Minister and all his ministers, the Governor of the Bank of England, the Chief Executive of the FSA and many others that the 'unwanted event' we are now experiencing was not foreseen.
The word 'risk', also used by these people, has then no meaning.
(This is just incredible considering we have recessions, albeit not as serious as this one, every so many years.)
It is perfectly possible to explain the world by accepting that all information is attributes about entities, that all entities belong to an entity type and that entities can and do make relationships.
The appreciation of money being an attribute and not an entity, will change the way we talk about economics and money.
I would be more than happy to meet up with you or others interested to explain in detail how we in another way, i.e NOT WITH LANGUAGE, but by entities and their attributes and relationships, can make sense of the world.
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If anyone wants to do anything constructive in this mess, then the first thing to sort out is the rules on company receivership.
In this, a bank can effectively pull the plug on a company and the receivers/administrators then try and pull in as much value as they can.
BUT
The bank, gets back as much of it money as as it can as it will have title over the company assets, the preferential creditors (staff etc) then get some.
The others, the unsecured creditors then get nothing
(But the administrators then get paid but the bank for doing a good job at about £400 per hour...)
This of course means that the big boys get their money, but the small companies and the individuals get nothing. The small companies lose money and need loans to get by but the banks refuse credit and call in the receivers.... and it all goes round again.
To break this cycle we need a system that allows equality of division, to make banks think more about shutting down a business, and to allow creditors some chance to get some payment and continue trading or the whole cyclical routine will continue to grow.
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We are told that our government is biting the bullet and taking action when it comes to the salary/bonus issue at the banks...and father Christmas really does exist... Perhaps it would be better from a fairness point of view for them to concentrate on what the accountancy professionals are doing the help corporate Britain, and those wealthy enough to pay, to not pay a fair share of tax.
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