Endnotes on the environment year
It's the time of year when this middle-aged man's thoughts, at least, turn to dark puddings and the laughter of children.
But the end of the year is also a time for tidying up loose ends. And before I put the laptop down, give the mouse a few days off the lead and recharge all the batteries that need it, there are a few things I wanted to set down here.
First, a big thank you to everyone who's taken the time to read and post comments on this blog. It's a new venture for me, but one thing I'm already am sure of - the more discussion we can have, the better the reading will be.
Secondly, an apology to everyone whose e-mails I've failed to reply to over the year. On an average day I receive 150-odd, and unfortunately there are days and weeks when I just don't have time to reply - which is especially galling when they are as nice as they were in response to the story that I enjoyed writing most during the year.
From my perspective, 2008 has provided something of a breathing space in a calendar that is becoming more and more dominated by climate change.
2007 saw the chain of IPCC reports and the key UN climate summit in Bali; and 2009 should see the crafting of a new global climate pact that in its complexity and breadth will make the Kyoto Protocol look like an infant's plaything.
A journalist has to follow the big political and social stories and big set-piece events, and that can leave precious little time for anything else.
The last year has been slightly quieter on the climate front, which has meant a little more time for covering the other environmental issues that don't so often make headlines.
The ongoing loss of global biodiversity is one; another is the steady growth in the world's population - and therefore consumption - that could undermine progress in other areas.
Deforestation remains a cross-cutting issue, impinging on biodiversity, water resources, climate change, and the livelihoods of people who depend directly on the forest.
These are all issues we have tried to highlight over the year, although I fear climate change has still probably emerged as the issue covered most often.
One aspect of climate politics that has largely escaped comment over the year is that 2008 marks the beginning of the Kyoto Protocol's first "commitment period" - the time by which the reductions are supposed to be made.
The protocol prescribed cuts by the period 2008-12; no longer is it a future target. It is a sobering thought.
Climate change has real political momentum now, and is showing signs of dragging deforestation along with it, albeit in a way that presents some social and ecological difficulties.
But on other issues such as biodiversity loss and the over-exploitation of fisheries there is still far less little discernible political movement at the global level.
In terms of the BBC's coverage of the environment, 2008 saw the initiation of this blog and also the introduction of video to the website on a much more structured basis, which I hope enhances our reporting of the nature end of the issue, such as my colleague Becky Morelle's venture into the frog habitats of Costa Rica.
Despite these changes, there is still far more information coming in than we manage to translate into news stories, and if we've missed issues and events during the year that you felt important, apologies.
So, my best wishes to you over the Christmas period. May it be white if you want it white, green if you want it green, and a hazy blur if that's what you prefer.
I'm Richard Black, environment correspondent for the BBC News website. This is my take on what's happening to our shared environment as the human population grows and our use of nature's resources increases.
© MMIX~RS~q~RS~~RS~z~RS~12~RS~)
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And all the very best to you and your family Richard, not forgetting believers and sceptics - all the best for christmas and new year, peace and happness to each and every one of you.
My New Years resolution is to try to get more of you to read alternative views on climate and to read your views with an open mind
Richard, how about a New Years resolution for you to report a little more on the sceptics views and the papers that are published showing how climate change probably isn't caused by man?
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Nadolig llawen/ Merry Christmas - I wonder what the credit crunch will do for the environment, and the discernible political change which will inevitably follow. Could well change perspectives when things get really tight in the next year or so. Thanks for your objectivity, enjoy your break.
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Sereno Natale e Felice 2009!
I've appreciated a lot your articles, so I'm enjoying this blog I only found quite recently. I like your reporting and from my point of view (or as they say in internet IMVVVVHO) I find it balanced and always spiced with a bit of superbe humour! Best wishes to you and your family in this time of festivities!
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A Happy Christmas and New Year to you Richard.
I echo the comments #1 written by CuckooToo.
It's been motivating and fun to exchange views with you. Thanks.
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Happy Holidays to you and yours Richard!
My name is Michael Desautels, and I'm writing you from Calgary, Alberta, Canada, for the first time.
Our four year old is still sleeping, as is my wife Julie. So I thought I'd take this time before the Christmas gifts, to say Hi and and wish you and your family well.
I enjoy your articles, and I'm glad to see that the BBC gives you space.
I'm fifty-eight years old as I write this, and I remember vividly Frank Borman and the Apollo 8 mission, which is a lead story on today's Christmas BBC website. For me it was and is the most memorable of the Apollo missions.
Some six years after Apollo 8, came the 1974 "Limits to Growth" report of the Club of Rome.
It is now half a lifetime later. I have followed the environment, if you will, ever since, and things are not looking good.
For me, runaway climate change is in all probability in progress, and is tied up inextricably with overpopulation, and the oil and hydrocarbon business.
I hunted for oil for eighteen years as a wellsite geologist in western Canada, and then I climbed mountains full-time for seven years.
Perspective is a marvellous thing, but it is hard to come by, for me at any rate.
It has occurred to me that both population and a large part of carbon dioxide emmissions are directly under the control of the individual, as follows:
1) If we just parked your cars, and used mass transit, or perhaps bicycles and feet when possible, we could make a discernible dent in CO2 emmissions literally overnight.
2) If we just spaced our children apart, say to four or five years, we could immediately flatten out the exponential growth curve, and return to a healthier way to raise our children.
What I am getting at here is this. Isn't it time to do something ourselves, and reclaim the rights and privileges of a free thinking people? Or are we so 'civilized', or "domesticated", as the author Ronald Wright puts it, that we are no longer due the respect of true democrats?
People of the western democracies:
Where is your heart?
Michael Desautels, B.Sc.
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Richard
I echo Cuckootoo's comments and wish you a Happy Christmas.
I look forward to reading and contributing to your blog in the New Year.
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Richard,
A well BALANCED Christmas and New Year to you and your family, and heres hoping for more BALANCED reporting from the BBC next year.
All the best from a very well BALANCED ,
Tough( not that tough, it was the only name available) Neil Hyde
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Richard,
I hope that you have a great holidays; And, also, for all of the environmental stories you have covered...
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`report a little more on the sceptics views and the papers that are published showing how climate change probably isn`t caused by man?` CuckooToo
Surely those belong in Entertainment? And `probably`; isn`t that doubt creeping in?
May I recommend ten books to while away the winter evenings?
1) `Ice, Mud and Blood` by Chris Turney.
A summary of key discoveries by scientists about past climate change going back deep in time and the implications for the present.
2) `An Ocean of Air: A Natural History of the Atmosphere` by Gabrielle Walker.
A history of some of the major discoveries about air, gasses and the atmosphere from Galileo to the present day together with explanation as to their importance for life on Earth.
3) `Earth: The Power of the Planet` by Iain Stewart & John Lynch.
Book of the TV series. I include this as an accessible introduction to earth systems and Earth`s history.
4) `CO2 Rising` by Tyler Volk.
Designed as clear yet detailed exposition of the carbon cycle and atmospheric chemistry for the lay reader. It takes as its protagonist a carbon atom and its journeys, and interactions with other elements, over the course of earth`s history.
5) `The Carbon Age: How Life`s Core Element Has Become Civilization`s Greatest Threat` by Eric Roston.
A book devoted to the carbon atom, the building block of life, and its role in the formation of everything from rocks, diamonds and Kevlar to plants, our DNA, CO2 and its role in earth`s atmosphere and climate.
6) The Science and Politics of Global Climate Change: A Guide to the Debate by Andrew Dessler and Edward Parson.
This is a readable introduction to help the public and policy makers sort through the conflicting claims in the climate-change debate.
7) `The Forgiving Air: Understanding Environmental Change, Second Edition` by Richard C.J. Somerville.
Written by a leading climate scientist this aims to describe the science of climate in a manner that a lay person can understand, as: `we`re less likely to do serious and irreversible damage if we understand it better.`
8) `The Long Thaw: How Humans Are Changing the Next 100,000 Years of Earth`s Climate` by David Archer.
Archer is a leading researcher into atmospheric chemistry and climate.
9) `Earth`s Climate Past And Future` by William F. Ruddiman.
An account of known factors that have influenced climate change over earth`s history.
10) `Climate change: A Multidisciplinary Approach` by William James Burroughs. This surveys many technical aspects and issues involved in modern climate science.
These are all available via online bookshops or ask your library to order them for you, by inter-library loan if they don`t have them in stock.
As always the Earth and Climate section of the sciencedaily dot com website is worth regular visits for the latest research.
May I thank Richard and the BBC staff for the ever expanding Science section.
May I wish everyone a Happy New Year.
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Dec 289/08: manysummits
I posted Comment #5 above, in which I suggested two things we could all do to address the current state of affairs.
But the silence has been deafening?
We don't have a car, use public transit, and have one child. We freecycle, etc..., and live in the moment, and we are raising our son 'like an Apache', a euphemism I would be glad to elaborate on.
I think we need to move past debate over whether climate change is real, or man-made, and act.
I would be interested to hear about actions by this readership.
The root of the word "hero" is sometimes given as 'ser', an Indo-European word, which means: 'to watch over, protect'.
Perhaps we are entering a new age of heroes?
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"Climate change has real political momentum now..."
Since we're in the pantomime season - all together now - "OH NO IT HASN'T!
In other news, the International Journal of Climateology finally reported what everyone except Richard Black has known for a long time - they do NOT provide supporting data for their papers to anyone who wishes to examine their conclusions. They claim the peer review by friends is all the checking that is needed.
In practice this means that anyone who doubts climate change scare stories will not be provided with the means to check them.
http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=4742 refers.
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Manysummits
I suspect the other contributers are silent in response to your posts either as an act of Christmas kindness or because they wouldn't know where to start writing a response. However, since you are so keen to have someone reply to your #5 post I'll try to help you out
On point 1, Fair comment; we could all use cars a little less but the big increase in CO2 emissions is likely to come from people who currently walk and use bicycles taking to using cars. Western Democracies are all committing to reduce CO2 emissions.
On point 2, It is these same people, in developing countries, that have rising populations. Western democracies' populations are going down.
Therefore asking western democracies "where is your heart" seems misplaced.
In post 10 you suggest we "move past debate over whether climate change is real, or man-made, and act."
Why would we want to "act" before deciding if the threat is real or what is its cause?
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Happy crimbo richard.
Here's to common sense taking hold in the new year and real changes being made.
Keep up the good work
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#11 `they do NOT provide supporting data for their papers to anyone who wishes to examine their conclusions.`
Rather as Galileo chose not to give evidence of his observations to the Inquisition that said they wanted to examine his conclusions.
Pantomime season indeed.
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To britononthemitten:
Thank you for your reply!
Leadership means a couple of things to me:
1) Going first, if necessary.
2) Leading by example.
On a lighter note, it's like Kevin Costner's movie, "Field of Dreams";
"If you build it, they will come", or words to that effect.
As to your last comment, re whether climate change is real, and dangerous?
For me the evidence already in is more than compelling, it is beyond reasonable doubt. But I think this forum is not the place to outline arguments. Lets assume that not everyone is convinced. Then we have partial information. But we also have another factor to consider. The seriousness of the consequence. In the case of a possible runaway scenario, the results look catastrophic. This makes the decision easier. My own new lifestyle is in most ways better than my old. So what have we got to lose? Perhaps only a sentimental attachment to the past.
Regards, and a good new year to all,
Manysummits
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re 11: see comment 20 in that thread for the answer.
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If anyone would like to read why the so called MMGW theory is brought in to question, read the attached paper.
[Unsuitable/Broken URL removed by Moderator]
The "Hockey stick" is the whole basis of "Mannian" and "IPCC" global warming and is completely flawed, from a statistical basis , let alone scientific.
There are so many people who are being spoon fed by the media in general, and the BBC in particular, that independent thought seems to have been outlawed by the Labour Party who in thoery govern the UK.
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The Hockey Stick graph was just one of many, many independent lines of research on global climate change.
That raising CO2 levels in the atmosphere also raises temperature was first calculated by S. Arrhenius in 1896.
That Earth’s atmosphere had a so called `Greenhouse` effect was first established by Fourier in 1824. The properties of `greenhouse gases` (CO2, CH4 etc) in trapping heat had been established long before that. The basis of MMGW lies in proven physics and chemistry.
The IPCC was founded in 1988 when Mrs Thatcher was PM.
Back in June 2006, following arguments over the Mann report, the US National Academy of Sciences was asked by the US Congress to find an answer to what period was the warmest of the past millennium. The Academy looked at seven different reconstructions of the past 1100 years of climate, from 900 to 2000. Each of these studies used different methods and each showed the same conclusion as the Mann Hockey Stick.
In a report released on June 22 2006, entitled Surface Temperature Reconstructions for the Last 2,000 Years, the Academy concluded that, while Mann’s statistical procedures weren’t optimal, the procedure did not unduly distort his conclusions, which the Academy reinforced.
`The basic conclusion of Mann et al. was that the late 20th century warmth in the Northern Hemisphere was unprecedented during at least the last 1,000 years. This conclusion has subsequently been supported by an array of evidence that includes both additional large scale surface temperature reconstructions and pronounced changes in a variety of local proxy indicators, such as melting on icecaps and the retreat of glaciers around the world, which in many cases appear to be unprecedented during at least the last 2,000 years.`
[Unsuitable/Broken URL removed by Moderator]
If you Google its title the full report is available on the Web, it can be a big download. (3 MB plus)
Is there a scientific consensus? Ask which scientific bodies do support the AGW/MMGW theory?
Below are some of the many that do:
The American Association for the Advancement of Science, the Geological Society of America, the American Chemical Association, the American Geophysical Union, the American Institute of Physics, NASA and American Meteorological Organisation have all endorsed the AGW hypothesis.
As have the national science academies (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Russia, United Kingdom and the United States) along with the science academies of Brazil, China and India signed a statement in 2005 on the global response to climate change. The statement stresses that the scientific understanding of climate change had become sufficiently clear to justify nations taking prompt action.
The Academies of Science for Australia, Belgium, the Caribbean, Indonesia, Ireland, Malaysia, New Zealand and Sweden have all issued separate statements supporting AGW. This view is also shared by the 188 national meteorological organizations that are members of the World Meteorological Organization.
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@SheffTim
Hi Tim
You left out the findings of the Wegman Report, which basically found that the whole process of peer review amongst climate scientists was too incestuous to be reliable and Manns statistical analysis was poor.
You also seem to have left out that under questioning by the Senate Committee, North (the author of the NAS Report) admitted that they agreed with Wegman, although North added that he still thought Mann was correct in his beliefs. Strange reasoning for an author of a NAS report, don't you think?
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