Obama stardust for teflon Rudd?
Though partially eclipsed by the counter-terror operation in Melbourne, two things happened this week which could influence Australian politics for many moons to come.
The President of the United States sought to align himself more closely with the Australian prime minister; and the leader of the opposition sought to distance himself from a once-obscure civil servant who he misguidedly thought had handed him the keys to The Lodge.
On the very day that the Australian media was consumed with the five arrests in Victoria, the report was released on the Ozcar affair, the rather improbable row over whether Kevin Rudd and his treasurer, Wayne Swan, granted special favours to one of their mates from Queensland, a car dealer who had leant the prime minister a ute.
Kevin Rudd was exonerated; so, too, was his treasurer; and it was Malcolm Turnbull, the opposition leader, who found himself fielding hostile questions from reporters about the fake e-mail concocted by a Treasury official, Godwin Grech, which started the whole row.
An already nervous and agitated man, Mr Grech is presently in a psychiatric ward in Canberra, which might give some indication of his mental state. Nothing he might have heard from Malcolm Turnbull would have lifted his mood. He pretty much heaped the blame for the mess on Mr Grech, who had first authored the dodgy e-mail and then handed it to Turnbull.
Peter Hartcher, the political editor of the Sydney Morning Herald, takes up the story: "Instead of trying to restore the confidence of voters, he conducted a narrow, legalistic exercise to exonerate himself. Where he needed to demonstrate a leader's largeness, he produced a lawyer's smallness. It was a missed opportunity by a man who cannot afford to miss any."
Turnbull currently has an approval rating in the 30% range, and less than a year after he took over from Brendan Nelson, there is talk of a plot to oust him. In this land of egalitarians, few people seem to warm to a man viewed by many as an elitist. After all, he not only represents the richest constituency in Australia, Wentworth in Sydney's Eastern Suburbs, but resides in its wealthiest street.
Were the blue-chip Eastern Suburbs ever to launch a secessionist movement, and declare independence from the rest of Australia, Turnbull would be an almost shoe-in for its new head of state. But it's his problems courting the city's blue-collar Western Suburbs, the home of the Howard battlers, which speak of his problems with Australia as a whole.
Perhaps people don't like what many see as a sense of entitlement, a born-to-rule mindset (even though he does not come from blue-blood stock). Perhaps he is seen as too pushy and impatient. Perhaps he is seen as the loftiest of tall poppies, and thus ripe for the felling.
Earlier this week, Mr Turnbull had a chance at public rehabilitation when ABC's Australian Story went to air - a tell-all, fly-on-the-wall, 30-minute show which allows its subjects, to a certain extent, to be the authors of their own narrative.
Happily for Australian Story, its cameras were rolling when the Ozcar story broke. Unhappily for Malcolm Turnbull, its cameras were rolling when the Ozcar story broke. On hearing the potentially cataclysmic news that the e-mail had been concocted, the first response of one of his press guys was to google the word concocted. Proof perhaps that Kevin Rudd's "education revolution" has not extended down the corridor to Malcolm Turnbull's office.
All this as Barack Obama continues to declare his love for Kevin Rudd, his new best friend. Signs of this budding romance came in a suitably romantic setting, Rome, on the fringes of the G8 summit, when Obama picked Rudd to accompany him at the podium in a press conference about climate change (think two bullet points about programmatic specificity rather than two coins in the fountain).
And proof of their mateship has come from Kurt Campbell, the US Assistant Secretary of State for the Asia Pacific Region. He was speaking on ABC's 730 Report: "One of the things that's been interesting in this new political generation, that President Barack Obama, when he spends and looks around the globe, one of the people he feels most comfortable with, to talk about climate change, about the role of government in modern societies, issues associated with the rise of China, the person he thinks about when these issues comes up is Prime Minister Rudd.
"And so for those of us who care a lot about the US-Australian relationship, we are extraordinarily pleased that there is not only a personal chemistry between these two men, but a meeting of the minds on the issues that frankly I believe are at the centre of global politics."
As the orchestra in the background reaches its mighty crescendo, Kurt Campbell goes on: "Really in many respects, for President Obama, Prime Minister Rudd is already one of the his best mates."
It is regularly remarked upon how Kevin Rudd is Teflon-coated. Now he has been sprinkled with Obama stardust. The US president has clearly decided who he thinks will emerge the winner from the next Australian federal election.
So two questions: what explains America's apparent affection for Kevin Michael Rudd, and what explains Australia's apparent disaffection with Malcolm Bligh Turnbull?
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It seems to me that Rudd hasn't really done anything since he became prime minster, so while he hasn't set the world on fire, he hasn't really annoyed anyone either. Probably the best thing for a politician.
Regarding America, i'd be more surprised if Obama and Rudd didn't have a close relationship. Australia has always been a major US ally, and an important player in Asia. New Zealand too, but to a lesser extent.
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It makes sense that Obama will listen closely when Rudd talks about climate change and how he is dealing with it. Australia is already felling the heat of climate change, as its already hot climate gets warmer.
"A warming Australian climate could be a “harbinger of change” to the rest of the world"
The US will surely take not of what happens in Oz as southern America will likely face the same problems.
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I think Obama likes Rudd because they are both professorial in manner; both of them are long-winded when off script. The main difference in personality being that when they try to appear as the 'every man', Obama's 'beer with blokes' was convincing whereas Rudd's saucy comments was not.
As for poor Malcolm, Australians can appreciate someone with a bit of flash, but not in place of substance. He also seems impatient that he isn't already PM. Ambition is good, but not when it is worn on the sleeve.
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Climate change is, coincidentally, a convenient vehicle for both men to distance themselves from their predecessors, especially being such a current affair. The media shows are merely a well choreographed extension to that.
As you alluded to Nick, it's also worthwhile for Obama to invest in Rudd, as he's perceived to be around longer than say... Gordon Brown.
However, most importantly and perhaps cynically, Obama recognises that Rudd is the Western leader with the most intimate knowledge, and arguably the most influence, of the world's (now) biggest superpower, and let's be frank, America's going to want a slice of the China pie via Rudd. Whilst I don't doubt that the US will have far more influence on Australia than Australia ever will on the US, I'm interested to see how Rudd will use this more symbiotic relationship to Australia's advantage.
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"So two questions: what explains America's apparent affection for Kevin Michael Rudd, and what explains Australia's apparent disaffection with Malcolm Bligh Turnbull?"
Well don't forget the 'love' Howard had for Bush. The Liberal National Party under Howard was very much an Australian GOP...if we were a Republic at the time of Howard's reign, I am sure the Liberals would have been nicknamed the Australian Republic Party, instead of the Tory party, as they were referred to.
As to Labor and the US Democrats, the policies are very similar in that both parties, and particularly their current leaders, look to world reform, rather than just their country's reforms. America's President is using Rudd's Labor enconomic formula to stimulate their economy.
On the point of Malcolm Turnbull, and why Aussies are leaving him in droves, he has made the mistake of mistaking Obstructionism for Opposition. There hasn't been one matter brought to the house of our Parliament that Turnbull hasn't objected to...and mostly with absolutely not grounds, or idea of what he is objecting to...opposition for opposition sake...which is obstructionism. And the sooner the Liberal Nationals remove him, and his cronies, the sooner we will have a decent parliament.
And in reply to a commentator above concerning Rudd's not doing anything since being voted into office. Which country in the world is the only country that has not got seriously burned by the world financial crisis? And which country is about to RAISE it's interest rates, so as to steady the possibility of an inflationary economy? Yep, Rudd's Aussie Labor Government.
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Petesyc:
The answer to your question about not being burned by the financial crisis could equally be Canada - no bank bailouts, a short recession and shallow budget deficit after a decade of surpluses, banks now moving into the world's top ten, and huge oil reserves.
As for Rudd, I have to agree that he is bland and nondescript and has shyed away from difficult or controversial decisions. I also agree that it makes sense for Obama to use Rudd's knowledge of China.
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Rome romantic? I suppose if you are swept off your feet by grime, dodging vespas on the sidewalk, large crowds, diesel soot in your snoot, intense heat and crazy drivers. I'd prefer Florence though.
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Obama would like Kevin Rudd because they both have a realistic understanding of the needs of working people in their nations. Rudd has done a tremendous amount to help Australia through the current economic climate. Further, as we progress into 2010 people will see how much his government assisted Australians to overcome problems not of their own making. Turnbull is a Merchant Banker and is the same ilk, as those whose greed for wealth, caused the world-wide financial crisis. Rudd has sought to reverse the inane privatization policies of the Howard Government, and we now see the development of an excellent educational environment for young Australians to grow and develop in.
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I will leave Obama's affair with Kevin Rudd for what it is, and focus on Malcolm Turnbull.
What I am most surprised about is that Mr Turnbull is still there. He obviously made a huge error of judgement in the Ozcar affair, and any half-decent party would have dumped him as leader to prevent him from doing further damage. His predecessor Brendon Nelson was ousted for much less.
Turnbull is now sitting around as a lame duck with nothing to deflect whatever the government shoot at him. This has little to do with him being rich, or from the Eastern Suburbs of Sydney. It is all because he allowed himself to be led by the nose in a big way by a fake email.
The Liberal Party should of course have dumped him last week, and I am surprised that he is still there. Perhaps the disaffection with Malcolm Turnbull is not as deep as we think.
Or perhaps there is no one in the Liberal Party ready or willing to take the helm...
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An article in OpenDemocracy (http://www.opendemocracy.net/article/email/down-under-diary-is-it-time-for-social-democracy) refers to Kevin Rudd's piece in Melbourne's Monthly last February (http://www.themonthly.com.au/node/1421) about The Global Financial Crisis. I don't pretend to understand either article but, to the extent that it sounds like a successor to "the Big Tent" and "the Third Way" in political alliances, could you provide some background to make sense of it? And of what Australian political thinkers make of it?
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