What Obama win means for Oz
What does a Barack presidency mean for Australia?
The blog comes to you from Washington, where someone in the bureau has just shown me a green and gold "Australians for McCain/Palin" placard - a collector's piece if ever there was one. I've written elsewhere on the site about the racial meaning of Barack Obama's victory. What does it mean for Oz?
When I left Sydney at the weekend the opinion pages were dotted with thoughtful articles assessing the impact on American-Australian relations. No doubt the same question has been asked, with equal fascination, in every corner in the world.
But seeing as the US ambassador to Canberra admitted recently to having not read the ANZUS Treaty, the landmark security alliance that came into force in 1952 and has been the touchstone of Aussie-US relations ever since, it's hard to believe that Barack Obama has given the issue much thought. Nor, for that matter, his circle of top foreign policy advisers. (As an aside, in 2005 the US ambassador to New Zealand called it the "Anzoo treaty".)
During his short political career, there was perhaps one fleeting moment when Australia loomed in the forefront of Mr Obama's finely tuned mind, and oddly enough it came back in February 2007, on his first day as a fully fledged presidential candidate.
He was asked to respond to comments by Australia's then Prime Minister John Howard, who inserted himself into the presidential campaign by saying: "If I were running al-Qaeda in Iraq, I would put a circle around March 2008, and pray, as many times as possible, for a victory not only for Obama, but also for the Democrats."
It all proved very helpful for Mr Obama, not least because it showed he was being taken seriously by seasoned foreign leaders, and thus helped close the credibility gap with his chief rival at the time, Hillary Clinton. On the first day of his campaign, it also meant Iraq became the focus, his most vote-winning issue in the early stages of his audacious campaign.
Back then, during his days as opposition leader, Kevin Rudd was open and enthusiastic in his support for Mrs Clinton. But he'll no doubt be happy that Mr Obama has come out on top.
John McCain would have been a good friend of Australia. He spoke of the importance of Washington's tight relationship with Canberra in his first big foreign policy essay of the campaign (curiously, he did not single out London in the same, effusive way), and well remembers Australia's contribution in Vietnam.
Still, Mr Rudd will be looking to forge the kind of relationship with Mr Obama that Paul Keating cultivated with Bill Clinton (Mr Clinton helped Mr Keating elevate the diplomatic importance of Apec, for instance).
The two men already agree on Iraq - both thought it a terrible foreign policy blunder - and are of common accord about the importance of "more Afghanistan and less Iraq". Mr Rudd will be hoping for a mind-meld on other issues, too, from the need for a co-ordinated global response to climate change to the need for greater global financial regulation.
There's one area of potential conflict, and that centres on Afghanistan. As the former Labor leader Kim Beazley recently told The Australian, Mr Obama may look for a greater troop commitment from Australia (currently, there are just over a thousand diggers in Afghanistan). Over the next two years, the Dutch may pull out of Oruzgan province, where the Aussies are also based. Washington may ask Australia to plug the gap, something which Mr Rudd has indicated he is unwilling to do.
Since World War II, successive Australian governments have been willing to play a blood price to maintain a close relationship with whichever president is in the White House - in Korea, Vietnam, the Gulf and Afghanistan. How far will Mr Rudd be prepared to go to preserve Canberra's most special of relationships?
PS I loved your response to my At the Movies post. Like the inventory of music on an iPod, a list of favourite films is very revealing. I'll work my way through the ones I haven't seen over the next few months. On the flight over, I did catch the thriller The Square from the Edgerton brothers. This time appearing as a cranky property developer, Bill Hunter appeared in the first 30 seconds. Does anyone know of any movie where he pops up sooner?
I'm 
© MMIX~RS~q~RS~~RS~z~RS~40~RS~)
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RE Ozzie films
try Death in Brunswick and Proof
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Probably too early to say what the effects of B-O will be on Oz.
One thing seems certain, there is likely to be less anti-US feeling around, which should be a good thing, maybe the world can cooperate a little more and get some good stuff done.
Maybe.
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It seems that Barack Obama's first year at least of his Presidency will be very internal, dealing more with the problems financially and domestically then the international problems.
I would liken his policies to be like that of America in the 1930's, that of looking interior and preferring to be isolated that was ended by Pearl Harbour.
GWB's 1st year saw very little international attention bar the American-Chinese plane collision, he didn't travel much and do much internationally, I forsee Obama doing the same.
He will have to deal with Iraq, Afghanistan and the troops there. He will have to deal with North Korea and Iran at some stage. He will rewind FTA's to protect American jobs and he will annoy people. I feel for him in this, the American President is damned if they go global and are said to be 'interfering' and if they are don't do much then they're told they're 'neglecting and irresponsible'. Good luck to him but I don't see much international travel on Mr Obama's schedule for 2009, maybe 2010 he'll pop over to Europe and Asia a bit more......
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Well it seems the United States of America people followed what we Australians did last November. We removed an ultra right wing government run by John Winston Howard and now George Bush is to be replaced by Barack Obama. I believe that we the people who live on this Earth cannot survive for much longer if we continue to elect right wing conservative governments. I am proud that the USA people have finally woken up. Let us hope that New Zealand and the United Kingdom do not make the disastrous mistake of electing right wing conservative governments. If they do than I will have no sympathy when the get into the same mess as Australia and the USA did.
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When I visited Sydney earlier in the year I was impressed at the standard of living. It looked to me like the "middle class lifestyle" (in the positive sense that it's thought of here in the US) was far more obtainable in Australia than America. Prez-elect Obama could do worse than cast an eye down under if he's going to make raising the standard of living for working Americans his top priority.
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The poor man has the hopes of several generations heaped on his shoulders. The hype has been mindblowing and I'm sure some are going to be disappointed, it goes with the job.
He has yet to prove his worth, I wish him well and look forward to the new deal.....interesting times ahead.
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Obama accepted telephone calls from nine world leaders.
They are Australia, Canada, France, Germany, UK, Israel, Mexico, Japan and South Korea.
There is none from the continent of Africa!
I have a white-coaler African American friend Elisha. He says he is brown, not black. He says he has nothing to do with Africa. The countries he wants to go most are Ireland and Japan.
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5. At 10:00pm on 06 Nov 2008, Agent00Soul wrote:
When I visited Sydney earlier in the year I was impressed at the standard of living. It looked to me like the "middle class lifestyle" (in the positive sense that it's thought of here in the US) was far more obtainable in Australia than America. Prez-elect Obama could do worse than cast an eye down under if he's going to make raising the standard of living for working Americans his top priority.
It's not difficult Agent00Soul. Pay a decent minimum wage, have universal health care (yes it's not very good but it still exists) and allow anyone smart enough to enter your university system to do so via a deferrred personal debt burden (google 'HECS'). A four year degree costs on average $20k. If people can work and educate themselves, the overwhelming majority will choose to do so. The idea of shelling out $200k to go to college in America makes me feel ill.
People here will complain about our house prices (and they are quite high at the moment) and the difficulty of obtaining a middle class lifestyle but go to the States and see how many people live in their cars (and did so before the subprime crisis) to get some perspective.
As for the new President-Elect, people will be disappointed with him even if he does a stellar job. The media have turned him into the messiah cross hercules cross stephen hawking cross... well you get the idea. An average day for him is expected to be: wake up, retire all of America's debt, have coffee, end war in Iraq, lunch, solve mid-east peace crisis, play with new white house dog, turn America into Utopia, dinner, read bedtime story to Malia and Sasha, stop global warming, bed.
Even he has said he can't hope to achieve anything near this in one term, but people are irrationally hopeful and emotionally connected to him. There's going to be one large global hangover when the honeymoon ends.
As for Australia - who? where? oh that! At least we have a US ambassador in Canberra now, for a while no one wanted the job and really how much easier does it get? Go sit in your office and allow people to heap adulations upon you. Chance of someone bombing your embassy: next to impossible. Language skills required: none. Cultural adjustment to weather, food, environment, lifestyle, cultural norms, etc: incredibly minimal, tell chauffer to drive on left and note that food portions are generally smaller.
The only thing we need to worry about is trade protection which Obama and the Democrats favour. But at the moment they're skint so it's unlikely to be a priority to print money for ag. subsidies. Wait until year 3 and then maybe...
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I loved SydneyKate's 'typical Obama day', so true - The press are putting a lot of pressure on the man, fingers crossed for his Presidency.
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SydneyKate, Will the US Budget have recovered sufficiently in three years for them to continue subsidising large farming corporations?
There will be (or should be) large demands for the measures you suggest on health and tertiary education on top of their huge accumulated deficit.
The other measure they should attend to is compulsory voting (as if) and centralised administration of electoral laws like the AEC.
On the whole US citizens don't seem to expect efficient government services and guess what? They don't get them.
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Thank you Tazitiger. I do try :)
Listohan, I don't think the trillions of dollars will have been found but I keep hearing about how it will make sense for Obama to keep running deficits (Krugman over at NYT and he has a Nobel Prize in Economics so he'd probably know). From that perspective, subsidies create jobs and spending, which in a recession is what the US will want and need.
As for ag. subsidies I was actually more than a little hesitant about Obama winning due to his stance on biofuel subsidies in particular. As an Illinois Senator, corn farmers are a group he is knowledgeable of and he took that and used it in conjunction with the Biofuel Lobby backing him to win neighbouring states. He is heavily in support of corn derived ethanol despite the fact that it is highly inefficient compared to sugarcane and as the World Food Program found out, the majority of the price rises we witnessed during the global food crisis earlier this year were attributable to food crops being diverted for the production of ethanol. Remember the riots?
It won't hurt our industries, but hearing global praise (especially from Africa) for this man who has a policy which may severely impact their ability to simply keep living has me wondering how much this was about his policies and how much it was simply "please not another old white guy". Not that McCain was a better choice, but how much of Obama's praise is reasoned, informed and realistic?
As for the US's lack of compulsory voting, I couldn't agree more. Do you guys realise that if I lined up ten Americans, all eligible to vote and representing the "average", based on the popular vote and rounding up and down as necessary, four didn't vote (turnout was in the low 60s), and 3 voted each for Obama and McCain. (The popular vote was about 54 - 47). Doesn't seem like an energised populace or a clear mandate for change when you put it that way. It's sad when four in ten don't care enough to turn up (with two wars and a recession as issues) and it's still seen as an amazing achievement in voter turnout. Though voting on a Tuesday helps with that, I'm sure.
BTW are there any of our Kiwi neighbours around? I'd like a crash course in how NZ's parliament works please. Do you have 3 tiers like we do? If so do you find a 122 seat parliament for 5 million people excessive? Or do you have 2 tiers meaning you can avoid people like Nathan Rees who have neither the intelligence, experience or media-savvy to succeed federally?
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Dude you got a FREE trip to boost the 100 odd that BBC put in USofA...:)
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Not often I give advice to US presidents but I will have a go here.
A worthwhile and everlasting job creation scheme would be for him to announce the country was GOING METRIC.
The benefits would be enormous and he would be remembered forever. No more billion dollar satellites down the gurglar.
Maybe the rest of the world might consider the US to be a part of it instead of behaving in spite of it.
Over to you BO.
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US Ambassador who hasn't read the Anzoo treaty. Sarah Palin who thinks that Africa is a country (who knows what she thinks Australia is).
Typical. The average American is ignorant of the rest of the world.
The next appointed ambassador to Australia will probably think that he or she is going to a country next door to Switzerland.
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kenmelba:
"Typical. The average American is ignorant of the rest of the world.
The next appointed ambassador to Australia will probably think that he or she is going to a country next door to Switzerland. "
I think this is a good indication of what we can expect.
Anti-Americanism is very deeply rooted in Australia and very widespread. A change in administration is certainly not going to change that.
I think it is likely that Australia will continue to move away from Americans and form much closer relations with both the Japanese and the Chinese, who are very popular there.
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To TimothyR444:
Me anti-american? In this and your other blogs you seem to have a thing about anti-americanism (the lower case is deliberate).
To break with the series of Ambassadors who are ignorant of Australia, Obama should appoint Bill.
The only problem is that he will want to move the Embassy from Canberra to Queensland. After all, in the past he has spent more time in Port Douglas than anywhere else in Australia.
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America and Australia have so much in common. When one visits Australia, one is struck by the huge open landscape and the positive Aussie confidence in themselves and their country. The Americans by and large are also very patriotic and think they are better than than the rest. However both countries have tremendous respect for the other. Of course the two countries have excellent bilateral relations. President Obama will attempt to reach out to world leaders as soon as he is inaugurated on January 20th. Mr Rudd will find the new President a very engaging charismatic leader with fresh new ideas. American-Australian relations will consequently enter a new positive phase. The strategic cooperation between the two nations is bound to grow. The new Obama Presidency will usher in real hope and better cooperation between two strong allies.
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Pancha Chandra:
" The Americans by and large are also very patriotic and think they are better than than the rest."
Fascinating comment. Americans think we are "better than the rest". Have you found that to be true in interactions with Americans? What form did it take? That is - did they say "We are better?"
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ken-melba:
"Me anti-american? In this and your other blogs you seem to have a thing about anti-americanism (the lower case is deliberate)."
*chuckle*
Yes - when you say that "typical" Americans are "ignorant".
I do find anti-Americanism to be a fascinating subject. It takes many forms and it is very widespread.
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I would think America's policy towards Australia will be shaped by the two countries military relationship. Comrades in battle always demand affection and respect from Americans. It will take a hell of a lot more than Barrac Obamma to change that. Australia is special, if for no other reason that your lot offends Europeans as much as we do. Thank a Digger for his defending Freedom in the war on terror for me.
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I think we should threaten to pull out of Afghanistan altogether if Obama pushes the issue. It's bull that we're the largest non-Nato contributor, and that unlike the sissy Europeans we have our troops in the South where they're actually in danger and we still seem to be largely ignored by the Americans at every turn.
The average American knows nothing about us, and the President-elect to my knowledge has not once said 'Australia'. Sure he's been to Europe on his weird, "international President" jaunt but acknowledging our existence and contributions......... *crickets*. If he continues to do this he should go it alone. Realistically, we don't need their protection as who on earth would invade Australia and why? for minerals? pffft, just buy controlling stakes in BHP and Rio Tinto. It's a lot faster and cheaper. Oh wait SinoSteel already have.....
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TimothyR444, #16 said "Anti-Americanism is very deeply rooted in Australia and very widespread. A change in administration is certainly not going to change that. I think it is likely that Australia will continue to move away from Americans and form much closer relations with both the Japanese and the Chinese, who are very popular there"
I think it's true that there's much anti-americanism here but I think W has been a great cause, especially with regard to Iraq. I don't believe the Chinese and Japanese to be popular, I would think Americans are more popular especially after curious George has gone. Hail Obama, he's been getting a huge rap here.
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If put to the vote you would be surprised at the low anti American vote in Oz....and rightly so.....sorry to disappoint you....to whom it might concern.......most are not stupid enough to believe big brave Oz can stand alone in a nuclear world....and thanks for that.
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I remember an American academic thinking that Margaret Thatcher was the Queen of England. We thought this was hilarious given that Margaret Thatcher often acted like she thought she was the Queen.
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timothyr444, i think your missing the point regarding anti-USAism.
That the AVERAGE US citizen is slightly less aware of the outside world than the citizens of many other nations is neither here nor there for most people. When it's the President, then I think we are right to be worried, and speak out, even if there is relatively little that can be done.
Sydney Kate. I'm not so sure compulsary voting is a good thing. Sure you ensure that the leaders of the country have been chosen by all that they lead, but on the other hand you represent the views of two groups of people who would not otherwise be represented: those too lazy to vote and those who do not want to vote.
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#8 SydneyKate
"It's not difficult Agent00Soul. Pay a decent minimum wage, have universal health care (yes it's not very good but it still exists) and allow anyone smart enough to enter your university system to do so via a deferrred personal debt burden (google 'HECS'). "
Come on, I'm sure you know better than that. The things you suggest have been on the table in Washington since the 1930s in various forms. There is perhaps nothing MORE difficult than establishing the things you imply are easy!
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#10 Listohan "The other measure they should attend to is compulsory voting"
Are you sure you want cumpulsory voting? I had a chuckle when I read this today:
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/12/opinion/12wed3.html?ref=opinion
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4 ianeholmes
The people of the United States didn't "wake up" when electing Barack Obama, they shifted their brains into neutral, didn't bother to find out much about him and didn't seem to care to do so, but were swayed by his impressive orator's voice and his message of 'change' - without giving much thought to the change he might bring.
The mainly liberal/left media then made sure the people got to know as little as possible about 'the one' and his thoroughly insignificant records in both the Illinois and U.S. Senates. His background very definitely is an 'issue', but the media made sure that it did not become an 'issue', instead vigorously deflected attention to the economy and the wars being fought.
It is difficult to imagine a more mindless and irresponsible way of electing a leader.
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18 Pancha_Chandra
Amazing! You really know the inside of Obama's head! That aside, Australia already has very positive strategic co-operation with the U.S. and has no need of Obama to improve it, but I'm sure the Aussies are now greatly encouraged by your words.
As to Obama having "fresh ideas", how do you know? He achieved very little in both the Illinois and U.S. Senates, making little or no impression there with "fresh ideas" unless his support for barbaric forms of abortion count as such, but now, evidently, a miraculous transformation is about to take place and from nothing he will set the world alight with brilliant new ideas. I truly marvel!
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Nick Bryant:
Some reforms in the things that Australia, wants...
e.g.) global warming
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AgentSoul, go to wikipedia and type in 'Gough Whitlam'. Anyone can introduce these reforms provided they have the guts and political will to do so. And hey you won't even have to worry about %$^%*&^ John Kerr the Cur waiting in the wings to dismiss your elected representative.
Yay. Bob Brown just announced he wants to push for a Republic, and I've just re-connected with my hatred towards our current system, given that a non-elected representative can protect his own backside and dismiss parliament ostensibly while working for the Queen.
Oh well at least Kerr is now dead and was hounded to his grave. Small pleasures.
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My fear of Obama is starting to dissipate as I take note of the intelligent way in which he forms his cabinet and his willingness to work overtime when he could actualy take a break. His recent comments on Bin Laden, Afghanistan, and especially Pakistan show he might be even more determined than Bush to fight against those behind terrorism. On top of promising staunch support for Israel, he called for recognizing Jerusalem as the united capital of Israel, something both Bush or Clinton avoided like the plague. He is willing to use diplomacy and to make compromises, but he appears to stick to his principles to the point where he is not willing to give up his main position even if he were the only one holding it.
Overseas, your infatuation with Obama made you blind to his protectionist agenda (or you actually don't care about losing money from your own pockets). Obama seems eager to bring jobs back to USA and continue or increase various subsidies. All this means extra loss of jobs overseas (aside from those the ongoing recession-depression is causing).
Our interests (Americans') will not be the same as yours. I hope you will see that our fight against terrorism is a just one, but we should bomb those who support it into submission and not occupy them, have our young soldiers killed, and spend astronomical amounts of money on people whose religion calls for world dominance through the sword (like the one on their flags).
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paulcrossleyiii wrote: anti-USAism, US citizen
robloop wrote: The people of the United States
listohan wrote: US citizens
ianeholmes wrote: it seems the United States of America people, the USA people
Uh, guys, they are called Americans.
Bizarre.
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Scrollock - I'm sure you know it's deliberate rather than bizarre.
Surely American describes the whole conitnent(s), and while as far as I know the USA is the only country whose citizens call themselves Americans, it would seem wrong to use the phrase anti-Americanism, when most people who have these sentiments have nothing against Canada, Mexico, Bermuda....
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Nick:
What does a Barack presidency mean for Australia?
I think that Barack's time as president is going to help Australia, with global warming problems...and the issues associated with!
~Dennis Junior~
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