England 2018: All but certain
England's bid to host the 2018 World Cup faces a classic English problem: warm words about English football followed by a "but". A but so pronounced that what might appear a smooth bid drive on a well-marked highway of good stadia, well-tested infrastructure and organisation backed by passionate crowds could become a bone-jarring drive on a narrow road full of potholes and dangerous badly lit corners created by the shifting world of football politics.
So, while everyone may say how nice it would be if England, the country that gave the world the game and that has not hosted sport's greatest competition since 1966, staged it, no sooner is this comforting thought uttered than the but kicks in.
Listen to Mohammed bin Hammam, president of the Asian Football Confederation. His initial feelings for a World Cup in England might have been scripted by England's 2018 bid team: "When it comes to England, the land of the birth of modern football everybody would love to see it played in England. England is a very good place to play the World Cup."
Then comes Hamman's very big but: "Having said that, the World Cup belongs to all the 207 nations in the world and it is the right of everybody to play it. I believe strongly that this is the time for Asia, not for Europe."
Many others echo Hammam's sentiments making England many people's second choice.
With less than two years to go before the race is decided you may think being second is not a bad position to be in. The problem is this is not quite like a three-mile horse race, or a 10 km event, where you sit behind the front runners, watch them exhaust themselves and your only problem is to time your run around the final bend.
The winner needs to get the backing of 13 of the 24 Fifa executive members who decide the tournament's destination. Since none of the 11 bidders are likely to get to 13 in the first or even the early rounds, this is effectively two very different races rolled into one.
In the early rounds the winner must make sure not to get eliminated. All very well, being most people's second choice, but if this means you do not have enough votes of your own in the early rounds you may never get the chance of converting second into first.
Recall England's disastrous 2006 race.
Then, as now, everyone said how good the English bid was, and how England was everyone's second choice. In the first round, Germany led, followed by South Africa, England and Morocco, which, as the last-placed country, was eliminated. England had five votes made up of Scotland, Oceania (presented by an expat Scot from New Zealand), and three Concacaf countries: Trinidad, USA and Costa Rica. The English camp had high hopes they could now go on to pick up votes taking them past Germany and beat South Africa in the final.
In the build-up to the election the late Tony Banks, one of the bid leaders, had said how England was the only European country with a worldwide appeal capable of matching South Africa. Germany, said Banks, just could not do it.
But in the next round England, instead of becoming stronger, grew weaker, going down from five votes to two - while the two Scots remained loyal the Concacaf votes switched to South Africa. They had told England if you do not get six votes in the first round we will go, knowing very well England could not get more than five. In effect they had parked their votes with England for one round.
That voting is a wonderful illustration of how Fifa decides World Cup bids. The voting is often by blocks, there is also tactical voting and an early round vote can be misleading.
So how can England win?
Simple. Use the conditions of the race to maximum political advantage. In the early rounds scour the world to get enough votes to stay in the race and eliminate some dangerous Europeans - the Russians look the most ominous, so much so some in the English camp are even now talking up the Russians.
With four European bids, covering six countries (there being two joint bids) at this stage England can be certain of only one European vote, Geoff Thompson, who represents the British nations on Fifa.
So while the public bid talk will be of splendid English stadiums and the arrangements for the teams and the fans, the crucial back-room deal could be with a country such as Australia.
Australia could enter the race with five or six votes.
With Fifa deciding both 2018 and 2022 at the same meeting, England could offer Australia a trade-off: back us for 2018 and we shall swing behind you for 2022. If they can also persuade Africa this could mean England getting as many as seven or eight votes in the early rounds, a possible winning platform.
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The victory will not be easily achieved but England would do well to heed the words of Franz Beckenbauer, who led Germany's successful 2006 World Cup. You can hear my interview with him in full but let me highlight that when I discussed England's bid he did not know who the bid leader was. As ever he has tremendous respect for Sir Bobby Charlton, who was part of the 2006 bid, but felt the rest of the team was far too aggressive and attacked Fifa committee members. Not a good idea if you want their votes.
Not for the first time the Kaiser highlights what England needs to do if they are to fulfil the long felt desire to bring the World Cup back to this country.
I'm 
© MMIX~RS~q~RS~~RS~z~RS~15~RS~)
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True, England hasn't hosted a world cup since '66. But I wonder, does the fact that it will have just hosted the Olympics count against it (or indeed, in its favour?) I'm sure it'll be in some people's minds - you know, the whole 'spread the wealth' thing. I doubt voters block out everything but world cups when they consider these things.
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Really enjoyed this Mihir. Might sound daft and naive, but I hadn't realised how much politics goes on behind the closed doors of the voting. fascinating.
makes you think back to the successful Olympic bid (oh, for the record: GET IN!! Bring on 2012 :) ), and I think didn't we get Blair involved to utilise his inter-personal skills? good call for once...
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I don't know why we bother entering really. Just like Eurovision, this process is a mess and a joke, with nothing to do with a bid being the best, and all to do with the usual mix of political underhand agreements to scratch each other's backs.
That said, once again, an inspirational bit of digging there Mihir.
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What about the major issue that FIFA want non nations games to be shown on pay-tv in order to boost sales in the UK?
This seems to be a secret condition of England winning because FIFA doesn't like the fact it can only really sell to the BBC/ITV.
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I'm not really sure what the hell the first poster is moaning about, I learned quite a lot.
You will also notice his/her point is simple and could be made in a sentence or two without all the padding to try and make themselves sound intelligent. Gotta love the hypocrites that post on this site eh. Although I do find it quite amusing that they are not intelligent enough to figure out why there is 2 rounds of voting and that they quite clearly didn't know that there was 2 rounds of voting prior to reading the article, which shows they did learn something.
So as required I have told you you are wrong, well done. If you don't like the blog, shut up and stop reading it, same as the moaners on Robbo's blog, just want some attention - fools.
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would have been great to see some highlights of the beckenbauer interview in the article...
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Whats post no.1's problem?
Mihir Bose indetifies a problem and backs it up then offers a solution and backs it up.
Not only this but includes a very good 7 min. interview on the subject with a leading figure.
I admit I have read some of Bose's previous articles and been very disappointed. However, this time I think he has chosen a very interesting subject and detailed a valid argument.
I think it is about time the World Cup came back to the U.K. However, I would prefer to see all countries in the kingdom used rather than solely England.
Many countries are two or three times the size of the U.K and program games throughout the length and bridth of the land. More expansive countries like the U.S.A have pulled it of so I can't see why N.I, Wales, England and Scotland can't.
I think this would allow for more government involvement. That would mean less financial restrictions and possibly add some prestige and stature by giving it status of wider national importance.
Also this would allow for a gread deal more high profile personalities getting involved. Instead of being limited to Bobby Charlton or David Beckham we can appeal to the likes of Fergie, Giggs, Denis Law, Pat Jennings, and Ian Rush to get involved. Having high profile personalities involved is something Beckenbauer sees as a must for any bid.
I am not sure if a U.K bid would be seen as a joint bid or not. It could be that there is a limit on the amount of nations forming a single bid. However, I would think that a U.K proposal would be attractive enough to successfully appeal for an exception to the rule.
I am not sure how this would work between the F.As. Their combined power though would also be an extra something that others wouldn't have. If they could get it together!
The stumbling block is the issue if automatic qualification. I would say that each nation has to qualify through the usual route. This of course brings up the possiblity of home nations not making it. Still I would think the average supporter would prefer to see the World Cup finals with all the top players in the world up close rather then on T.V. With or without home nations I cannot see anything other than sell-outs across the board. Although automatic qualification for all four nations could be a part of the bid, and workable, I can't see it being accepted. Ultimately it may not be fair. It would be better to nip this one in the bud and put our nations to the test of the qualifying groups.
I condiser that a U.K bid would be a stronger and more attractive proposal that would not depend on political dealings to win. Even then I would think the combined abilities of the personalities, F.As and government capable enough to win the political game if neccesary.
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#4 "I don't know why we bother entering really".
Do you mean to tell me the prospect of a domestic world cup doesn't get you just a wee bit excited.
Regardless of the unpleasant political machinations involved, you've got to be in it to win it. I for one am in need of a clean set of undies at the very thought of it.
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Interesting article...it's as bad as Eurovision... surprised the Scots got behind the English bid! Could that be so the FA support them for a Euro bid??
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I think you'll find Scotland gave the world football.
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I found this to be one of Mihir's better offerings - at least this had content and informed me about how the system works (although the title could've done with a question mark, got my hopes up)
I had already thought about the Australia idea - they're unlikely to be gung-ho on 2018 and would quite like either, and bear in mind the football world probably wants it back to Europe rather than have 3 southern hemisphere cups in a row so would probably be quite open - and they're an Asian team now, so we could placate that bloc
I think the only troublesome bloc would be the north americans, and obviously Europe - I think the plan of trying to get rid of Russia early is a good one, they're the biggest threat
Interestingly the ozzies think they have an advantage with so many European bidders - 4, but they have 4 from their own confederation (qatar, china, japan)
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8 Outlaw
Would you like to try that after the problems over a united team for one paltry U23 tournament?
I wouldn't risk it, with the concerns over the independence of the four nations already (valid or not) I could see a lot of resistance from them
That and joint bids are still a questionable issue (altho I feel they are likely to return soon considering the number of countries unable to host alone) - even though obviously a UK tournament would barely be 'joint' and would offer little infrastructure concerns, it would cause problems with having 4 host nations, presumably meaning that european teams would lose three berths
It may also put further pressure on the British nations rather special status on the IFAB, or at least put the fear up the other three
All in all I would say avoid the idea, which they have, and just support any further bids for the euros
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We've already hosted the world cup, and there are 150 other countries in FIFA. Why don't we let someone else have a chance?
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Sounds like the Eurovision song contest voting system! I we know how successful England is there!
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I believe the voting system is based on a number of rounds determined by the number of nations competing, with the idea being that after each round of voting, one nation is eliminated, and their votes being re-distributed to the countries according to who received the second votes. For instance, if Russia were to be eliminated first, a person who voted Russia as first and England second would then have their vote re-distributed to England in the next round. So in theory, England being in second place could be an advantage as it is often the candidates who are neither liked nor particularly disliked who seem to prosper from this system of voting, rather than the candidate who is either heavily liked or disliked as they would not win as many of the second votes. In this way, a candidate who is behind after the first round of voting, could then overtake others after the votes are re-distributed in the next round. However, the obvious advantage of being first in the polls is that if one nation were to receive over half of the votes then the host would be decided after just one round of voting. I believe this is the process anyway but correct me if not.
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Actually Tarquin, I am scottish and don't support a joint team for the Olympics. The only reason the Team G.B thing can't get sorted out is because footballs governing body won't give proper assurances that the system the home nations work with won't be changed. I think the F.As of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland are absolutley correct to protect their autonomy. In fact I am sure England would not want to see any changes made either.
That factor and perhaps some kind of stipulation to have a minimum set of players from each nation would probably be enough to get me supporting Team G.B. I can't speak for the F.As though!
I feel that a joint World Cup bid would be an attractive proposition even if the U.K were to dissolve. It may possibly be even easier to find an agreement with participants being unarguable 'partners'.
Still, I don't really see why, for example, if a deal was to be made now but Scotland were to become independent between now and 2018 (that sounds so futuristic, like in an old school sci-fi kind of way) that the details of the bid should be changed or that the bid should fall apart. The F.As would already be co-operating as independent associations anyway.
Perhaps the problem here would be through any responsibilities taken on by Westminster. I would think that some arrangement would have to be stipulated in the proposal that would kick-in should the U.K dissove or change in any way. This would avoid the need for ad-hoc negotiations spoiling the plans.
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We can just about afford the Olympics, why this assumption that the World Cup would be the greatest thing ever?
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Mihir:
That is good news, if it happens if World Cup England (2018)....
~Dennis Junior~
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Joby, don't you think that England already have the infrastructure and stadia to be able to host the World Cup at minimal cost?
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My understanding is that if a bid receives over half the votes then yes, that is it. However, should there be a need for further votes the least popular nation is eliminated but votes are not simply redistributed.
A whole new vote is taken. I have also heard newspaper chat that the SFA would allow grounds such as Hampden, Ibrox and Celtic Park to be included in an England only bid, should the FA think that may somehow 'broaden the appeal' but presumably they would expect English support for a Scottish Euro bid in return.
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No offence to anyone who thinks that holding the world cup is a silly idea in the UK.. Think again. I was 15 when Euro 96 was in the UK... I remember it vividly. The memories from it will last a life time. It hooked me into football big time from being a casual observer of me beloved Chelsea. Just imagine having the WORLD CUP? Yes we'd get to the semis and get stuffed on pens but hey... how cool would it be?
I hope the Olympics will do the same for young aspiring athletes and footballers. But I have doubts over New Labours ability to complete the project, let alone keep it to within budget. just look at the now not so new looking Dome... it just didn't help regenerate squit.
But with the Football. All we would need to do is improve minor things. the game is so deep rooted it wouldn't take much to pull it off. Im sure If South Africa wasn't Ready - the UK would be one of the back up grounds to take it.
My only problem - will I live to see 2018? or 2022?
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Sorry got ahead of my self.. New Labour... Old in the tooth now isn't it!
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Like "theoutlaw" i am also Scottish and i can comfortably say my only concern with a potential team GB is whether or not the individual FA's will stay as such after the olympic games.
More on topic, though, I was interested by the basic argument of "let someone else have a shot" as this would only be a good idea if some better countries were putting in bids. As harsh as it sounds I just don't believe that either of them have the balance. China has the population and obviously the power to put on a show but as a footballing nation they are anything but world famous. England has the appeal, the standard of football and the stadia. That being said it is clear that they draw a lot of flak from other nations for whatever reason that is.
On the point of Ibrox, Celtic Park etc being used i genuinely can't see them being needed but the Scottish support is surely beneficial for any future bids.
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I think that if the FA made a deal to actually go ahead with the 39th game plan which primarily would involve EPL teams playing games in the Middle East Countries of Dubai, Abu Dhabi and mostly Qatar we could swing the Asian federation behind our bid for 2018. Would probably have to also support the world cup going back to Qatar in 2222 but don't see that that would be a problem.
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jonesstrikesback, the bid isnt for the uk, its for england, get your facts right, the uk has no place in football
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2018 You're having a laugh, who seriously thinks the FA could organise a World Cup when they cannot even organise the tickets properly for the Johnstones Paint Trophy Final!! Luton have sold 38000 tickets and want more, Scunthorpe have only sold about 12000, so there are 40000 going spare, but the FA have made such a mess of it that they will not let Luton have any more, and I thought that they had to sell tickets to fund the stadium.
In the words of the late great Eric Morecombe 'what do you think of it so far' RUBBISH
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There always appears to be a strong anti-English sentiment amongst footballs international governing bodies. If it were up to Sepp Blatter and Michel Platini the English game would be drained of all of its life and summarily dismantled. Luckily it isn't up to them, but I still get the feeling that it'll be a cold day in hell before England are awarded a World Cup. Lets hope my pessimism is misplaced.
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I love the idea of a World Cup using stadiums in England, Scotland and Wales, but I'd think this was far more likely to cause problems for the status of the FAs than putting in a team for the Olympics would do.
(Every FIFA official who has mentioned this has said there is no way the associations would be forced to merge - and how on earth would they enforce that if the associations didn't want to?)
Scotland has no prospect of hosting a World Cup alone, but it would be a wonderful thing to see games of that stature at Celtic Park, Ibrox, Hampden or even Murrayfield. The Millennium Stadium is probably the best ground on the island, so it would be great if that could be used too.
As for iafc55, I suspect that, sad as it may be, the FA would attach a bit more importance to the World Cup than they do to the Johnstones Paint Trophy, despite that competition's noble and revered heritage. Besides, most tickets probably wouldn't be allocated to the supporters of the teams competing, so there are less problems!
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England will go in favorites for 2018 as the tournament will of been held in two Southern hemisphere countries in a row.
However, I would never under estimate Australia. They have an expanding A lge, have cemented themselves well in Asia, the worlds largest football confederation and have Frank Lowy in charge. They certainly know how to put on a show and I'm sure they'll be fighting hard for 2018 and 2022.
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Blimey. It's not rocket science is it?
In as diplomatic way as possible, the Kaiser has stated that if England have Charlton as their man representative (as opposed to some faceless FA Lord SomethingOrOther) HE (ie. Germany) WILL support the English vote for 2018.
I trust, Mihir, that you have made this video available to those in charge the bid?
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It'll all come dow to money at the end of the day - until we English understand that and start paying a few 'bungs' to these 'honourable' representatives of foreign associations we can forget hosting the World Cup.
Wise up England - we're too nice.
Get the brown envelopes out now and play like everyone else.
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I've got to agree with post 29. Although England already has many of the required stadia in place, a reliable infrastructure, the popularity of the Premier League and an established national team, i still feel that Blatter will find a way to influence the outcome. We all know FIFA is a corrupt organisation and this voting system is a farce. Whats wrong with a straight vote from all 200 odd countries?
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If the FA play the bid in a clever way its possible, consider.
A- We don't need to spend anything big on Stadiums or travel networks (we all know British rail doesn't work but shush)
B- We already have a multi-diversified nation with people from all over the world enabling fans of all countries to be easily assimilated into the games. It's not going to be like riotous Rome.
C- We haven't had a second WC unlike, Germany, Brazil, Italy etc.
D- Guarantee that the WC would make money and FIFA can fill it's greedy pockets.
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The team behind England's bid need to adapt a ruthless streak, and start reading up on the subject of bribery!
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It would be wonderful if this country could stage the World cup again,
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Why is it Asia's turn? They have 2 countries capable of hosting it and those countries were joint hosts in 2002. I've got an idea, let's host it in Pakistan! It's really safe there!
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What a very interesting blog. I never knew how much planning and voting and politics were involved in a World Cup Bid.
Very good stuff Mihir, learned a lot
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Is the decision taken in 2010? If so we have plenty of time to lobby voters, doing deals to back bidders for 2022 for example. Obviously Sir Bobby is the candidate to front it but we would also need sound political support also, is the Government interested?
Without the backing that the Olympic bid had we will have no chance.
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Of course the WC2018 (and/or 2022) bid has Government backing. It is part of Labour's planned legacy of a "Decade of Sport" (Olympics London - 2012, Commonwealth Games Glasgow - 2014, FIFA WC England - 2018/2022), if we can bid for the UEFA Championship too...
The WC will have 32 teams and 8 groups, unless the format is due to be changed again. Therefore it would be nice to see a utilisation of Millennium Stadium, and maybe Scottish stadia for the group phases and potentially up to the Quarter-finals.
Millennium/Villa Park could be home for one group
Scotland (Celtic Park/?) could house a second group
Yorkshire (Leeds/Sheffield) could house a third group
Liverpool/Manchester could be the stage for groups four and five
The North east could welcome a sixth group
Whilst London can have seven and eight.
Should they qualify, then Wales can play at home, Scotland can play at home, and the 2 Irelands could be based in Liverpool/Manchester or Scotland.
How can England persuade the world? Well, we're at a more convenient time zone than almost any other country bidding - i.e. more TV audiences, more TV revenue. We have the facilities already. We can try to persuade the big Premier clubs to tour the countries who vote for us - if the Indonesian FA go for us, then imagine if that meant bragging rights to the FA president for drawing out Manchester United or Liverpool to play a game there!
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Didn't Asia get the 2002 World Cup? Yet they want it back so soon. England haven't had it since 1966, I think it's about time football finally came back home.
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"Not for the first time the Kaiser highlights what England needs to do if THEY are to fulfil the long felt desire to bring the World Cup back to this country."
Why "They"? Why not "We"? Most people reading this will be thinking "WE want the WC", yet the Head Sports Editor on the BBC uses the term "They". All for one and none for all?
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Its long over due that we host the world cup, If you look at the hosts since 1966 when we last had it Mexico have hosted it twice 1970 and 1986 only 16 years apart. And also germany have hosted twice once as west germany in 1974 then of course in 2006. Its about time there was a fairer way of deciding this. I think under the current system we may not host it for some time as everyone in the world pretty much hates the English just like we'll never win eurovison due to political voting.
Get it sorted I'm too young to have been around in 66 and I would love the chance in my lifetime to see my country in action on the big stage at home.
Plus its the only real chance we have of winning it if its on homes soil.
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As this is an English bid why are so many people mentioning Scotland and Wales!! We have enough good stadiums now throughout the country to look for others outside England. I'm also sure that in a few years time more will be upgraded and built like Tottenham, Liverpool and Everton.
Someone also mentioned good managers and players to help but the ones mentioned weren't English either.
We just need to be more diplomatic in the way we approach the Fifa members so we can get either the 2018 or 2022 World Cup.
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A couple of points.
1) FIFA have categorically stated that Great Britain can enter a joint football team for the 2012 games (no others) without it affecting the individuality of the home nations. Assuming that the various heads of the British FAs believe this then there must be another reason that they oppose the idea.
2) TheSammee (#48) Asia did indeed get the WC in 2002 and want it back. Europe had the WC in 2006 and want it back. Let's hope this isn't taken into consideration.
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Armchair Expert
FIFA have refused make the assurances over our F.As independence binding. This would stop future presidents with a different outlook using Team G.B as a precedence.
Former Scotland Manager Craig Brown has pointed to problems caused by the increase in competing European nations as a possible reason for the rules being redrawn.
There are genuine reasons for being protective. In that sense they (the F.As) are not "opposed to the idea" but opposed to the possible consequences of the idea.
Do you think England should give up their F.A independence for the sake of the London Olympics?
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Good blog Mihir. One of your better ones for sure. Can you investigate how England would finance this?
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When reporting on FIFA and Olympic bid-processes the BBC has, in the past, been willing to go much further than cosy fire-side-chats about the politics of the process.
I invite other readers to review the BBC's own articles and TV programs (listed below), and then ask why any attempted discussion of them is removed from this forum.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/panorama/5070224.stm
http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/other_sports/olympics_2012/3939219.stm
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I could listen to Beckenbauer talk about football all day!
I reckon an English World Cup would be fantastic from all the obvious points. They have the finest stadia, the experience of Euro 96 and all that. One of the important factors is the policing. The hooligan element may rear it's ugly head but who knows British trouble-makers better than the British police (tho this wasn't shown when Rangers visited Manchester).
I am 95% behind an English bid.
The other 5% comes from that I'm Scottish and the partisan backing England will havemight push them to go and win the flaming thing!
Joking aside, I think it would be great to host and would be a great addition to what is rightly being touted as Britain's Golden Decade of Sport.
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