BBC NEWS | The Reporters

Tough, but not impossible

Matthew Price
28 Oct 08, 11:29 PM GMT

Today we travelled through driving rain, sleet, and fierce winds. We traveled under low, grey skies for several hours across Pennsylvania, a state that is playing a central role in this election. Both Barack Obama and John McCain held rallies here today, and that is interesting.

I suppose there's always a chance that Obama campaigned here to force his opponent to spend time and money in a state that the polls suggest McCain will be hard pushed to win.

Let's though assume that is not why he was here, and take the Obama campaign at its word when it says it is taking nothing for granted in a state they see important.

Both campaigns must see this state race as tighter than the polls suggest, otherwise they wouldn't be investing so much time, money and energy in Pennsylvania at this late stage.

Of course Barack Obama could still lose Pennsylvania and win the White House in a variety of ways. For John McCain this state is more crucial to his ambitions, and the polls don't look good, but he still says he can win here. To be fair, he also says he must win here.

At the latest Sarah Palin rally today the Republicans didn't look like a defeated party. They queued in blustery, chill-you-to-the-bone weather, for hours. Thousands of them showing their support. Many didn't get in and were very upset.

They told me they don't believe the polls, they think that McCain will win this election. How? Well, many believe his message on Barack Obama's redistributive tax policies is working its way into the minds of undecided voters.

That of course is anecdotal, and so is this but if we are to believe John McCain and heed his message to disregard the polls, then anecdotes are all we have to go on, and it matches what I've been hearing from lots of voters.

There are - in addition - some Democrats who are nervous .

The difficulty in this argument of course is that the polls as a whole are saying the same thing, to varying degrees. They are pointing to an Obama victory.

Look though at the poll that, according to Republican strategist Karl Rove, came closest to calling the 2004 election. Today it's suggesting a wider lead for Obama, but it's still in the lower single digits.

Yes, yes, yes. McCain needs some pretty complex mathematical equations to add up in his favour, and he needs voters to shift towards him in a way the polls suggest they haven't been in the last few weeks.

All I'm saying is while the route to a McCain victory is tough, it is not impossible.

Comments

1. At 02:24am on 29 Oct 2008, Via-Media wrote:
I agree that the Democrats can't get complacent, but McCain's numbers just aren't there. The chances of ALL the polls being wrong, as his campaign insinuates, beggars belief.

I'd be even more nervous because of the "upsets" in 2000 and 2004, but we didn't have incredible tools like fivethirtyeight.com back then to do the full statistical analysis.

Which, in fact, is showing a bump for McCain- his chance at victory next Tuesday has risen from 3.3% to 3.8%.

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2. At 03:15am on 29 Oct 2008, OldSouth wrote:
Not at all impossible! The more people know about Obama, hear the interview his folks tried to bury, see his people try to destroy anyone who dares ask Himself a question...the more clearly they will consider what their vote means.

Do they really want to live in a country controlled by this man and his minions?

The mainstream press, including sadly much of the BBC, are totally in the tank for Himself.

Heartland America despises the mainstream press, a group of people that has made no attempt to hide their contempt of middle-class American values.

This election gives them the opportunity to send a loud message back to the media: We decide, not you!

Stay tuned, this will be close. If Himself were the long-awaited Messiah he claims to be, he would have long ago overwhelmed any opposition.

The pundits may be in for a real surprise Wednesday morning.

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3. At 03:54am on 29 Oct 2008, tokando wrote:
Oh my, Oldsouth you have no idea. I think Obamas not an ideal candidate but the thought of four more years of republican rule???? yeeeesh!! I think if the democrats put the finger sniffing chimp from youtube against Mccain instead, it would probably be ahead in the polls to.

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4. At 04:29am on 29 Oct 2008, Merthyrmiddleeast wrote:
From this side of the world, the last thing that we need is a McCain victory. Four more years of the same failed policies could spell disaster for the Middle East - another way has to be found.

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5. At 09:30am on 29 Oct 2008, Gordon Ingram wrote:
"... if we are to believe John McCain and heed his message to disregard the polls, then anecdotes are all we have to go on, and it matches what I've been hearing from lots of voters."

Then again, we could always disbelieve McCain, ignore his message, and analyze all the available evidence in a scientific manner.

You are right in that it is not impossible for a 20/1 outsider to win, but who on earth backs a 20/1 shot in a two-horse race? The more interesting questions centre on the margin of Obama's victory and the size of the Democrat Senate majority. If both of those are big, then there could be a real mandate for change. But there does seem to be a fair chance that either or both may be slender, leading perhaps to something more akin to the Clinton years? Interesting times, anyway!

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6. At 09:40am on 29 Oct 2008, Belmons wrote:
Middle Americans despise the mainstream press? Could that be because they can't read it?

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7. At 10:30am on 29 Oct 2008, RomeStu wrote:
I am confused by this idea of a "mainstream press or media" (MSM in blog shorthand).

Fox and CNN and the BBC are all mainstream. They have different editorial slants, but all try to present news, not unfounded speculation.

That Obama is more newsworthy (objectively) than McCain is a simple fact. Someone posted on another discussion that ...

old white guy runs for president = not news
young black guy runs for president = news

That the old white guy also throws mud and has incoherent policies means he is even less newsworthy in the objective sense.

If you follow NON-mainstream media you are simply choosing to read opinions that you already agree with, and therefore will never challenge yourself with a new idea, or even risk to change or update your opinions.

Did the democrats complain of the MSM bias to the right in 2004 when the papers were full of the disgraceful "swift boat" slurs on veteran John Kerry, standing against draft dodging George Bush Jr?

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8. At 10:54am on 29 Oct 2008, SaneYouth wrote:
This comment was removed because the moderators found it broke the House Rules.
9. At 11:30am on 29 Oct 2008, Parnhat wrote:
Now i know this may/will sound a little harsh, however given the level of personal attacks on each candidate in this election i wonder why no one has questioned McCains assumption that just because he was in Vietnam - he'd be a better President on matters of National Security?

Firstly (and perhaps a little harshly) wasn't he a POW for the duration? I mean how does he expect to catch Osama (the current reining World hide and seek champion) when he (McCain) was caught by and failed to escape from the rag tag communist army?

Secondly the "veteran" tag was clearly overlooked in the Kerry vs Bush election - Kerry the distinguished veteran (also not caught by the enemy) vs the draft dodging George Bush Jnr.

Anyone else think along these lines?

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10. At 12:40pm on 29 Oct 2008, SaintOne wrote:
To # 9

Ouch, that was quite harsh! When McCain was captured, he had several broken/fractured ribs/limbs. They immediately bayoneted him. They tortured him and gave him very little food. His father, a high ranking officer, was given the option to have McCain released. He refused, so that the enemy could not use it for propoganda. I'm not sure how exaclty you expect anyone to escape that. It's not like the movies.

Don't get me wrong though, I agree with your first statement that it doesn't make him a better candidate. Im from the UK, but I'm very much pro-Obama. I just think McCain should have been a candidate a few years back rather than Bush!

Peace

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11. At 12:52pm on 29 Oct 2008, fearlessbritabroad wrote:
If I was a Senior GOP God I think I'd be advising the party to forget a McLame victory and stop throwing good money after bad and use what's left of the war chest to prop up those GOP Senators in danger of losing their seats.

As much as I want Obama to win (don't we all outside of the US), I think a House and Senate controlled totally by the Dems is bad idea. There needs to be checks and balances and enough people to question and debate policy.

What I do know is that after Big O gets elected on Tuesday, there will be some serious blood letting at GOP Towers. The fallout should be amusing to watch.

Schadenfreude - what a wonderful word...

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12. At 1:06pm on 29 Oct 2008, paul canning wrote:
How about some facts to back up your contention?

Tough ask I know but maybe if you did a bit more research you might find stuff like Nate Silver's posts on this, e.g. http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/mccains-10-day-plan.html

This post sounds just like the question flung at Bob Worcester (Mori) on Today yesterday: "and what is your instinct?" to which Bob of course replied "I prefer facts" ...

C'mon Bob (and colleagues). we pay your salaries and expect a bit more bang for our buck than just recycled 'instincts'

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13. At 1:33pm on 29 Oct 2008, richardember wrote:
Married to an American and having just returned from a few days there, I must reiterate that this is far from a done deal.

I wouldn't mind a few quid on McCain taking this yet. My money is just as good there as on any bank stocks, I reckon.

Don't underestimate (nor overplay, mind you) the fact that there are still a lot of Americans who will baulk at the prospect of voting for a liberal candidate who is also black. Old habits die hard.

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14. At 3:10pm on 29 Oct 2008, AAlvinTwiningham wrote:
#13, sad but true. My wife works with several die-hard Democrat union members who have tole her point-blank they can not pull the lever for a black man. It is a very sad commentary on the state of this country and in part explains why the Republican leadership have remained so successful by catering their messages to the poor and uneducated.

Which brings me to #2. I am the Republican grandson of farmers and coal miners born and raised in rural PA, so I think I can speak a bit about heartland values. The "MSM" is simply a fiction created by Rush Limbaugh and Fox news to boost their own ratings. It is another cause of the rot that has infested the Republican party.

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15. At 3:25pm on 29 Oct 2008, proudpagan wrote:
If McCain should win, the first thing his administration would desperately need to do is have an outside independent neutral group prove beyond doubt that his election was not a repeat of 2000 and 2004. That and refrain from using Mr Bushes negating the Posse Comitatus Act to put U.S. troops on U.S. streets to "contain" U.S. citizens protesting (what they deeply believe to be) another stolen election.

#2
I don't think there is a single concept in your post that is not a logical fallacy.
For U.S. readers who were not taught critical analysis in school:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_fallacies

Your main logical fallacy, the "Straw Man" that Obama claims to be the/a Messiah does not even make sense to most people. When have Obama or any of Dems claimed he is a Messiah? Rather than use U.S. fundamentalist Christian code words why not just be honest and post that you are calling Obama the Anti-Christ sent by Satan?

#9
McCain's claim is that just being in the Service is what makes him a better Commander In Chief/National Security expert. A better question re: his POW status is why he is not speaking out against the treatment of Gitmo etc. inmates.
The "veteran" tag was not overlooked in the Kerry vs Bush election; it was swiftboated.

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16. At 4:38pm on 29 Oct 2008, notlimah wrote:
To 9 and 10

You may find this alternative McCain history of interest.

http://www.rollingstone.com/news/coverstory/make_believe_maverick_the_real_john_mccain

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17. At 4:40pm on 29 Oct 2008, tigermilkboy wrote:
PA is a crucial state but for differing reasons. Obama wants to secure the electoral votes for PA and not give McCain any chance. It makes perfect sense to shadow McCain right now.
McCain's campaign has quite rightly decided to concentrate on getting PA 21 electoral votes in one shot. This makes sense rather than aim more resources in NV, CO, IA, MO, NH. These five states yield 36 EV's but involves more logistics, money and people. Given that McCain is running on limited resources, it makes perfect sense to put his eggs in one basket in PA and hope some of it rubs off in to OH and VA.
It is a risky strategy, but the only reasonable way for McCain to win the Presidency. Huge risk, but high gains if it comes off.
There is some evidence McCain is closing the gap due to his intensive PA campaign. The flip-side is Obama seems to be doing better in NV, IA and CO.
I feel McCain just has to stick with PA and OH and hope FL can come through. There is no other way! Hit and hope, hit and hope that's all he can do.

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18. At 5:11pm on 29 Oct 2008, sadevito wrote:
Agreed, anything can still happen. I'm glad at this point that we've come far enough to have a black man in the lead. Lots of fear-mongering out there, but if you ask me, Obama and his family have more to fear than anyone with all the crazy people with guns out there. If he's not there, then neither am I!

But why give us a poll that doesn't even look at the race on a state-by-state basis? Karl Rove may say that IBD was closest on a % basis, but the country doesn't elect the president. States do. Anyone who wants to predict what will happen (futile in my opinion any way) should look at the electoral predictions. On all of them that I have looked at, McCain needs to come up with all of the so-called toss up states as well as one or two that are leaning Obama. I'll be out there this weekend and on election day helping to make sure that New Hampshire goes to Obama.

(By the way, can we stop the name-calling? It's really childish. )

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19. At 5:58pm on 29 Oct 2008, AAlvinTwiningham wrote:
Oh dear, I seem to have typed "tole" instead of "told" in my post #14. Perhaps I have been ingesting too much Palin "folksiness".

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20. At 9:23pm on 29 Oct 2008, StephenDerry wrote:
People point at previous unlikely election results - Truman v Dewey, Kinnock v Major, where the polls have been wrong. And people talk about the Bradley effect. And people talk about the polls "tightening" - ie they have come from 12 points down to 5 points.

I don't buy any of it. Every nationwide poll has consistently shown Obama to be substantially ahead, all through September and October. 5% is a substantial lead whatever context you look at it, and they don't seem to have "tightened" any further since the weekend.

Furthermore, individual state polls and the projections of the electoral college they generate also consistently show Obama winning. And he is closing in or has already overtaken McCain on several supposedly Red states. Are McCain's efforts in PA having any effect? And if so, is it at the expense of the other important states he needs to win?

Unless the polls tighten this weekend to such a degree that McCain is actually ahead in states he needs to win and within 1-2% nationally, he cannot win. It is so statistically improbable it makes Truman and Kinnock seem like certainties.

If the polls sit where they are for the next 5 days, and McCain wins, it will literally mean the end of the polling industry, and therefore politics as we know it. Such a contrary result would be immediately siezed upon by the disappointed losers, the disgraced pollsters and commentators, and the disbelieving outside world as irrefutable evidence of a blatant fix - there are already whispers and suspicions coming from both sides about electoral integrity.

But I'm not trying to scaremonger, I'm just saying that given the absolutely consistent picture painted by the polls - not a single rogue dissenting voice - a McCain win is so unlikely that it would be natural to assume there has to be another explanation than an entire industry failing spectacularly en masse.

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21. At 9:33pm on 29 Oct 2008, Triumph69 wrote:
What the republicans are ignoring, is that like in the UK the election is not decided on the popular vote, but the electoral college votes (parlimentary seats in UK) and in reality that means only 10-12 of the states. In pretty all those Obama has a lead and in most it is rising

www.pollster.com

doesn't matter how many more texans or West Virginians or Oklahomans vote for McCain.

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22. At 10:07pm on 29 Oct 2008, akaTurkish_delight wrote:
There is a persistent effort to exaggerate Obama's differences in relation to McCain's by pointing out that he is Black and from an un-orthodox up-bringing and interpret all this to mean that he is somehow un-American. In public, it is not acceptable to express reservations about a candidate's skin colour so any discomfort and reservations people may have on the issue of race is instead converted to talking about his religion. Didn't Elmer Davis say, "This nation will remain the land of the free only so long as it is the home of the brave." There is no reference to issues of race or religion in this quote. It is irrelevant and to judge a person's ability solely on the colour of their skin is bigoted. The core issues are so much more profound and if people are narrow-minded enough to fail to see this then that is indeed a pity. America is not just a country for white people. Its demographics in relation to race and ethnicity are diverse. For example, there are people of Hispanic or Latino origin, there are Black/African Americans, there are Asian Americans, there are American Indians and there are Pacific Islanders and others. It is this diversity, this multiculturalism which makes America a truly great country. To be short-sighted and to overlook the rights of all these people because they are not white is the realm of the far-right, the white supremist groups and does not have a place in mainstream politics.

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23. At 10:32pm on 29 Oct 2008, RomeStu wrote:
#2 oldsouth
"If Himself were the long-awaited Messiah he claims to be, he would have long ago overwhelmed any opposition."

It is the Christian Right that have tagged on this ludicrous "messiah" label to Obama.
People who are not fundamentalists do not think in these terms.

What people are looking for is someone with sound social, economic and foreign policies to help lift the USA out of the pit it has fallen into under the previous administration.
If you even remotely understand what is going on in the world at the moment, you would be voting for Obama too, because without a significant change in policy the USA is going to become increasingly belligerent nternationally and dichotomised domestically .... which even for me in Italy has an effect (yes, vested interest) - there are several major US military bases here.

Peace

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24. At 11:52pm on 29 Oct 2008, Rachel_North wrote:
If all the many polls, all of which have had Obama leading for weeks are proved to be wrong, then there is no point in having polls any more. End of.

If the mainstream media are also so out of step, then why are they selling by the bucketload, charging thousands for advertising and running websites which millions turn to for news?

There could yet be a shocking gaffe or surprise game-changer. I hope the 30 minute infomercial isn't a dreadful own goal: I think it is a mistake.

It plays straight into the narrative of Obama's opponents about him vaingloriously 'measuring the drapes', it will irritate sports fans whose ballgame coverage is disrupted and the number of undecideds it can sway is minimal compared to the irritatation caused.

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