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No wiggle room

Matthew Price
30 Oct 08, 11:47 PM GMT

End of the day in Mentor. Joe the Plumber turned up again. He gets a huge cheer. McCain's supporters see him as a real hero. McCain says he's the only person that's managed to get a straight answer out of Obama. Which doesn't say much for McCain's debate performances, I'd argue.

I met several people today who said they believe the tax message will get through, and is doing so. I also met people who said they had initially been excited by Obama and had considered voting for him, but as they heard more about him they were turned off. The messages questioning his patriotism, branding him a socialist, linking him to Ayers et al have worked with some.

I suspect, though, with fewer than McCain needs.

So McCain devoted a whole day to just Ohio, and will do the same again tomorrow. He's told voters here he has to win this state, otherwise he won't win the election. McCain has no wiggle room. One failure and he's done for. There's nothing to show that the polls here are moving significantly in his favour. I wonder what he talks about on that bus, when he's finished the day's campaigning?

Confusion

Matthew Price
30 Oct 08, 11:45 PM GMT

Route 90 heading for Mentor, to the east of Cleveland Ohio. The police are blocking the entry ramps and the McCain convoy is slowing everyone down in the evening commute.

One woman parked on the entry ramp's confused. "Who is it," she asks excitedly, "Obama?"

Straight-talking John McCain

Matthew Price
30 Oct 08, 06:42 PM GMT

Sandusky, Ohio: A quick dash through the north of Ohio, the sun now warming the ground. It's such a beautiful day. We stopped at another charming little town, Sandusky, its roads lined with McCain supporters. A small but vocal group of Obama voters stood among them, shouting for their candidate.

Then the McCain campaign deployed its secret weapon.

Yes, it was John McCain, but it was a different kind of John McCain - one we have not seen for a while. He delivered a rousing, articulate, and intimate speech on a gazebo in the middle of the town.

He loved it, the crowd loved it. He was able to speak directly to people, rather than from a perch on some anonymous stage where he often seems less than comfortable. He is certainly a lot better at speaking off the cuff than he is at reading an autocue.

Why has the campaign not deployed "John the straight-talker" for what seems like an eternity? His rallies look good on TV, but today was the best performance I have seen him give. He was up close and personal with the crowd - and speaking in his own words. In an election that is so much about image, surely a relaxed, happy John McCain would have played better than the slightly awkward, slightly removed politician standing above a crowd that we have grown more used to seeing?

Is he finding his voice, and himself in the last few days?

Defiant in Defiance?

Matthew Price
30 Oct 08, 01:49 PM GMT

Defiance, Ohio: This is a town John McCain picked - we are told - because of its name.

It is bitterly cold, but bright and beautifully sunny. John McCain looks relaxed.

This is his final push here, and we'll follow him today across northern Ohio.

I asked people here to describe John McCain to me.

According to them he is a patriot, a man who fights for his country, a man who has his country's best interests at heart, a man who will change Washington.

One senior citizen told me he had not even heard of Barack Obama until a few months ago. How could he vote for him, he asked?

The crowd is excited as Mr McCain steps up. But do they represent the majority of US voters?

Last-minute changes

Matthew Price
29 Oct 08, 10:56 PM GMT

Atlanta International Airport, 29th October

It's been a fruitless day, waking well before dawn in Pennsylvania, and travelling to West Palm Beach, Florida where we were expecting a John McCain event.

In the end it was sealed off from all but the "pool" of reporters travelling with the Republican candidate. So now we're in transit yet again, heading back north where we hope to see John McCain again tomorrow. The sun's just setting over Atlanta airport, and we've still got to get to Ohio. Nineteen hours of travelling in all - assuming no delays!

In the last few days of these races it's often hard to know where the candidates will end up on any particular day.

They make last minute changes to the schedule, knowing that a visit to one place rather than another could win - or cost - votes.

In the meantime, are there some signs of desperation within the McCain camp in these closing days? Remember the row over robo-calls? Well if this report is right, they are being used in John McCain's home state of Arizona. That should be a safe state for him. He shouldn't need to use them there.

There's also been a lot of talk about an "October surprise", a possible curve-ball that might throw Obama off course.

It's getting late in the month, and I would have thought too close to election day to make any real difference, but
this has been brewing on conservative websites for a day now,
and shows signs of making it into at least regional newspapers. Fox are also covering it a lot.

A McCain spokesman last night accused the LA Times of deliberately suppressing a video of Barack Obama talking in favourable terms about an American-born Palestinian academic. The feeling I have is that many here have grown tired of these kind of reports, but perhaps one more link between Obama and that often misused and misleading word "terrorist" might change some minds?

Tough, but not impossible

Matthew Price
28 Oct 08, 11:29 PM GMT

Today we travelled through driving rain, sleet, and fierce winds. We traveled under low, grey skies for several hours across Pennsylvania, a state that is playing a central role in this election. Both Barack Obama and John McCain held rallies here today, and that is interesting.

I suppose there's always a chance that Obama campaigned here to force his opponent to spend time and money in a state that the polls suggest McCain will be hard pushed to win.

Let's though assume that is not why he was here, and take the Obama campaign at its word when it says it is taking nothing for granted in a state they see important.

Both campaigns must see this state race as tighter than the polls suggest, otherwise they wouldn't be investing so much time, money and energy in Pennsylvania at this late stage.

Of course Barack Obama could still lose Pennsylvania and win the White House in a variety of ways. For John McCain this state is more crucial to his ambitions, and the polls don't look good, but he still says he can win here. To be fair, he also says he must win here.

At the latest Sarah Palin rally today the Republicans didn't look like a defeated party. They queued in blustery, chill-you-to-the-bone weather, for hours. Thousands of them showing their support. Many didn't get in and were very upset.

They told me they don't believe the polls, they think that McCain will win this election. How? Well, many believe his message on Barack Obama's redistributive tax policies is working its way into the minds of undecided voters.

That of course is anecdotal, and so is this but if we are to believe John McCain and heed his message to disregard the polls, then anecdotes are all we have to go on, and it matches what I've been hearing from lots of voters.

There are - in addition - some Democrats who are nervous .

The difficulty in this argument of course is that the polls as a whole are saying the same thing, to varying degrees. They are pointing to an Obama victory.

Look though at the poll that, according to Republican strategist Karl Rove, came closest to calling the 2004 election. Today it's suggesting a wider lead for Obama, but it's still in the lower single digits.

Yes, yes, yes. McCain needs some pretty complex mathematical equations to add up in his favour, and he needs voters to shift towards him in a way the polls suggest they haven't been in the last few weeks.

All I'm saying is while the route to a McCain victory is tough, it is not impossible.

America's fear of big government

Matthew Price
27 Oct 08, 08:48 PM GMT

He doesn't have long, but John McCain has two routes he will follow this week to try to stop Barack Obama winning the White House.

He will continue to portray his opponent as a liberal 'tax and spender', a proponent of big government.

He will also warn of the consequences of having both a Democrat in the White House and a Democrat-controlled Congress.

This amounts - in his mind - to a liberal one-party state.

The common thread here is that for many these two ideas are profoundly un-American.

Just listen to how this woman put it to me at the latest McCain rally in Dayton, Ohio:

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This is a useful summary of what some are worried about.

For many US voters these twin messages work, and for the large number of them who still say to me at McCain rallies that they just don't know "who" Barack Obama is, article like this might - if they were to read them - help to fill in the blanks.

I think this is a key bit: "We have never, ever in our 232-year history, elected a president who so completely and openly opposed the idea of limited government, the absolute cornerstone of the United States of America."

John McCain's problem of course is that while the idea of limited government runs in the blood of many here, this election is being fought at a time when many seem to believe government does need to step in and rescue the faltering economy.

Remember too that John McCain voted for the huge bailout package.

However, by pointing up the big philosophical differences between himself and Mr Obama, John McCain is giving himself a final shot.

The other day I met a self-described "independent-minded Republican voter" on a flight to Denver.

We discussed how he would probably vote for McCain.

He did say that he would have been willing to vote for Obama ("despite his socialist tendencies") if it had not been for the fact that the Democrats could end up controlling "everything".

A lot of people feel like this. John McCain's best hope lies in enough people having the words "big liberal government" flash through their minds, when they walk into the polling booth in a week's time.

Where's the 'real' John McCain?

Matthew Price
26 Oct 08, 04:23 AM GMT

It's obvious things are going wrong in the McCain-Palin camp, as this suggests.

It's looked obvious for some days now, or weeks rather. Ever since I sat in Invesco Stadium in Denver at the end of the Democratic Convention and realised how well run the Obama campaign has been, it has struck me how poorly run the McCain campaign appears in comparison.

They have not had the electoral cycle on their side - few would bet heavily against a Democratic win after eight years of an unpopular Republican president (as a side issue, is George W Bush the biggest loser of the election? No-one will stand up for him in any way. Not even Sarah Palin).

Nor have they had the money on their side.

And they have been running against a man who many see as one of the most inspiring figures in politics for decades.

But I can't help feeling that McCain and Palin have been done an injustice.

Few that I meet - who have either met John McCain or merely watched him from afar - think anything other than good about him.

He strikes me as a decent and honorable politician, a good man, wanting to do the best for his country.

Palin is more of an unknown quantity, but she is clearly a savvy politician who - contrary to her self-nurtured image - has been wondering about projecting herself onto the national stage for a short while.

She is also a politician who perhaps - if we are to believe the latest insider talk - feels let down by the machine around her.

And that, I sense, is something both John McCain and Sarah Palin share.

Neither appears totally comfortable with the way the campaign is being run. We haven't seen the "real" John McCain in ages.

He didn't stick with what made him special and different in Washington, the fact that he would speak his mind whatever the consequences and BE HIMSELF.

Does this say something about him?

Headlines such as "McCain team forms circular firing squad" to me speak less about divisions within the team, and more about leadership of the team.

Yes, perhaps the Republican "system" forced him into a corner on his VP pick, or on the subtleties of campaign strategy.

But if he truly is the maverick outsider, who fights for what he believes in, would he allow himself to be beaten into a position he didn't like?

What if he had gone for a VP pick that was less popular with the Republican base?

That would have proved he was his own man, and in an election that seems to be driven by a nation's desire for wholesale change, that might have helped him enter the last week in a better state than he seems to be.

Why Iowa?

Matthew Price
25 Oct 08, 03:19 PM GMT

Why am I in Des Moines? Why am I in Iowa?

The short response is because John McCain and Sarah Palin are both coming here to hold rallies, but to be honest I'm not sure that answers the question.

The local paper doesn't seem to get it either.

Perhaps the McCain campaign sees something we do not: that it is still possible for them to win here despite Barack Obama's huge lead in the state polls.

If that is the case then those who say that Mr McCain can still win this election may be onto something.

The other way of looking at it is that thee republican candidate knows he is in deep, deep trouble, and the only way through it that he can see is to win all the states that George W Bush won in 2004.

Which at this stage is looking like a very tall order.

Barack Obama has numerous different strategic paths to the White House; John McCain does not.

McCain loses it

Matthew Price
23 Oct 08, 04:09 AM GMT

This has now happened too many times not to mention it.

John McCain lost it again today. There is a part of his speech near the end that my producer Kevin calls the "Born To Run" moment. The bit where true believers cheer, clap and BELIEVE.

The bit where John McCain repeats perhaps ten times that he will "Fight... Fight for ..." and then he mentions several things that he will - you've guessed it - fight for.

It's the rousing end, the bit that lifts the crowd, the bit they all love.

The bit that I would have thought John McCain would not be reading, but be feeling. This is his pitch about what he wants to do, what he believes needs to be done for this country.

Today, the autocue went down.

Now yes, John McCain doesn't like the autocue, he's not particularly good at reading from it.

And yes, it is hard to speak flawlessly for 20 minutes or so to a crowd of thousands.

And yes, the campaign trail is grueling, he must be tired, I don't know how he does it.

And yes, he's up against one of the best orators the modern world has seen.

BUT, surely he should be able to busk the end of his speech, the part that he should speak from the heart if the teleprompter goes down?

As the Republican pollster Frank Luntz put it in an interview recently (less charitably than me): "Stevie Wonder reads the teleprompter better than John McCain."

Today John McCain stumbled, repeated phrases, read from the page, then looked up to the screen and re-read them.

Maybe I'm being unfair, but this is a man who is running for the top job in the country, one of the most important jobs in the world.

Does his inability to think on his feet, to go off the page, count against him?

This is his pitch to the US electorate about why they should vote for him. He's less than two weeks from the election. Surely he should be able to deliver it without notes?

Frankly today, I cringed when he stumbled, and felt embarrassed for him.

Here comes the 'S' word

Matthew Price
22 Oct 08, 05:31 AM GMT

What is it about the concept of "socialism" in this country?

McCain continues to talk about Obama "spreading the wealth", which I understand as a political tactic might be effective, but the snide way in which some of his supporters shout "SOCIALIST!" after McCain mentions Obama's name is fascinating.

Earlier today, outside the latest McCain rally near Pittsburgh, there was a group of young Obama supporters waving their posters and chanting their candidate's name. A McCain supporter walking past shouted "Communists!" to the joy of the other McCain followers.

Why?

This isn't an attack against McCain, or Republicans.

I'm just interested in why a country that prides itself on openness, that believes in freedom of speech, that has always generated new and fresh ideas of its own, can (in general, and I know I'm close to stereotyping here) be so fearful of such an idea.

In Europe, socialism is not liked by everyone (nor even a majority in many places), but it is accepted as a valid political philosophy. And yes, you'd have people shouting socialist at the odd Labour political candidate in the UK, but not, I believe, with the same venom.

There seems to me to be a genuine misunderstanding here about what is and what is not socialism.

Many here that I meet tell me the health care system in the UK is socialist and therefore bad. There are bad things about health care in the UK, but there are many good things, and anyway it's not a socialist system.

And "spreading the wealth" isn't necessarily socialism. It's what governments do with your taxes all the time. It's about roads, and schools and hospitals and helping individuals who can't help themselves.

I remember a journey I did with a truck driver once, from Nebraska to LA. We were discussing the hard life a truck driver has in this country, how the hours are long, the pay not good, the conditions bad.

Why do you put up with it, I wondered? "Well we couldn't do like the French do, blocking the roads, that just wouldn't be American," he replied.

I told him how I imagined the French drivers have better holiday entitlements, how they have perhaps better pay, and the like.

He snorted, but the next day he came back to me on it. He'd spoken to his union rep, and he'd been told that indeed the French do have better working conditions. He said he'd have to think about it a bit more.

I wonder if in the US people have been told for so long that individuals make their own success, that everyone can live the American Dream if they (personally) work hard enough, that they have become selfish as a society?

The reason I'm wondering is not - I promise - due to any deep-seated prejudice, and I also promise that I am wondering about this, I haven't come to any conclusions.

This is all partly because of what a car mechanic in Ohio said to me the other day: "It's all about me, me, me in this country now. It never used to be like that."

Is this why "socialism" is a bad word? Because it implies giving someone a free ride, and that (for many) is a non-American (US) concept?

Relishing the underdog mantle

Matthew Price
21 Oct 08, 12:22 AM GMT

For a moment I thought the McCain-Palin campaign had changed its slogan. In the car park here in Belton, Missouri I saw a bus, with big colour pictures of the two candidates grinning from the side, and in-between them words along the lines of "Stop the Obama campaign." It wasn't THE campaign bus though, just a supporter's group rallying the faithful. Someone nearby was shouting: "Obama! Socialist!"

"If I become president..." John McCain said. His audience wouldn't let him get away with that. "WHEN I become president." A huge cheer, but from a crowd significantly smaller than two events Barack Obama held here in Missouri recently.

John McCain's people estimated he got about 6,000 here in Belton today. It may have been as many as that. It certainly was not as diverse as Obama's.

A large man with a big belly, a white beard and an oversized red suit waved two cheerleader's pom-poms in the air as John McCain took to the stage.

"He does Santa at Christmas," the middle aged man next to me said.

Do you think McCain can win this? I asked the non-Santa. "McCain's got to win this, for the country. Otherwise...." He grimaced.

You don't like Obama? "I wouldn't care if his skin was all polka dots, but I don't trust him."

Up on stage John McCain was continuing what is certainly his move back to basics. He is enjoying campaigning on an issue he can get his teeth into. Taxes.

"Senator Obama is more interested in controlling who gets your piece of the pie than he is in growing the pie."

Today we had a new line of attack too. He spoke of "Joe the Biden" as he's calling Obama's running mate - and what the McCain campaign clearly believes is a Biden gaffe - or rather (as far as they're concerned) a Biden factoid.

As the McCain campaign is gleefully pointing out Joe Biden said this last night:

"We're about to elect a brilliant 47-year-old senator president... Watch, we're going to have an international crisis, a generated crisis, to test the mettle of this guy."

So senator McCain is turning a rather clumsy Biden moment into this: "Senator Biden guaranteed that if Senator Obama is elected, we will have an international crisis."

Now you know and I know what Biden really meant, and we also know why McCain is twisting the words here. It is though potentially important. It could stick, just as the message on tax and "spreading the wealth" might be sticking.

There are two weeks left. The polls seem to be tightening slightly. McCain insists it's not too late. He is re-invigorated at the moment, and seems to have renewed energy.

He can't compete on crowds, on money, on endorsements - but he's relishing his new mantle as the tax-cutting underdog.

The great outdoors

Matthew Price
20 Oct 08, 06:08 PM GMT

We have just arrived in Belton, Missouri, on yet another beautiful sunny autumn day.

For the first time on this trip of ours, John McCain is going to address a crowd outdoors.

It is a bold move. His crowds have been significantly smaller than Barack Obama's - and this is just days after Mr Obama held two huge rallies in this state (an estimated 100,000 in St Louis and then just up the road in Kansas City an estimated 75,000).

Mr McCain will not get anywhere close to that.

I imagine, however, that he will be bringing messages about plumbers called Joe and socialists called Obama (he may not use the 'S' word but that is what the crowd will take away from it).

Speaking a discredited language

Matthew Price
20 Oct 08, 02:45 AM GMT

In Holland, Ohio, on a chilly autumn day, we found them burning the American flag.

Dozens of American flags in fact, being thrown onto a bonfire, and sending thick, black smoke rising into the bright blue sky.

To be fair, the men and women of the American Legion don't call it "burning" the flag - that would be disrespectful. It is called "disposing".

For the last year they've collected old, worn out flags that are too tatty to be used anymore.

As we stood and watched the smoke, and the flags disappear, one veteran told us that people at the Legion are pretty well split down the middle on who to vote for in the election.

"Oh, and you know Joe the plumber lives just down that road?"

Joe the plumber is the guy who has become the late star of this campaign - the plumber from Holland, Ohio, who challenged Barack Obama on his plan to tax people and businesses that earn more than a quarter of a million dollars a year (most economists agree that Obama's plan would also cut taxes for a majority of US citizens earning below that level).

Indeed Joe the plumber was exactly why we had come to Holland, Ohio. Is - we wondered - Joe (or more precisely the tax message) the factor that could swing the election McCain's way?

At the pumpkin stall by the dainty sign into this small village the answer was a resounding "yes". There is no way that Jim the farmer will vote Obama (not that he ever would have he said), but "spreading the wealth"? "That's the first step towards socialism." You think Obama's a socialist, I asked? "I think he wants to give someone's hard-earned money away."

Fred the customer was buying several pumpkins with his children. He didn't like Obama's message either: "I believe in capitalism. You earn it it's yours. If you don't work you don't eat."

Later, down the road at a McCain rally in Toledo, there were boos for every mention of Obama and his "spread the wealth" philosophy. John McCain senses blood on Obama's tax plan, because his political philosophy is so different and he believes that his fellow citizens are on his side.

Many are of course, like the pumpkin farmer and his customer, but I wonder how many? Back on the outskirts of Holland, we spoke to Ron the mechanic. About the same age as Joe the plumber, about the same demographic (white, working class) but this time round he's going to vote for Obama.

"Joe should have kept his mouth shut! He doesn't even have a plumber's license!" he said. And then he filled me in on the details of Obama's tax plan, as if he were himself a spokesperson (he's not, for the MSM-bashers amongst you).

He's not the only one. We met Jason the (now unemployed) metal-worker outside a McCain rally in Florida, who voted Bush in 2000, but who recited Obama's tax plan to me word for word and told me he was voting for "Barack".

Jason was wearing a Nascar cap, was tattooed up on both arms ("and they're rebel tats"), so he's not what I would expect of an Obama supporter. "I come from a pretty redneck place," he said. "I've got racist, ignorant friends who won't vote Obama because he's black. That's never bothered me."

I wonder if Joe is an important figure in this election because he has got people talking about precisely what the candidates would do with tax policy. And from what I've seen it's backfiring on McCain as many we meet like what they're hearing from Obama.

It also means that McCain is talking about lower taxes as a way of spreading wealth. Many still agree with the philosophy of course, and we meet them all the time. But it's also a discourse from another political generation, the era of Reganomics and the Republican trickle down theory.

Now is not a good time to tell people in this country that trickle down economics works. Everyone bar the very rich from whom the wealth is meant to be trickling is worried about the dollar in their pocket. For many McCain is speaking a discredited language. It may save him, but I doubt this is the issue that can turn his fortunes around, and it's the only one around for him at the moment.

Taking the temperature in Florida

Matthew Price
18 Oct 08, 02:20 AM GMT

When you travel like this around the US you are reminded that it is not a country but a continent. This week on Monday in Virginia we had the last warm days of summer, a chill wind necessitating a fleece in the evenings. In Pennsylvania on Wednesday the days began with mist, which was soon burnt off to reveal beautiful blue skies and autumn warmth.

Now down here on a Florida Friday, in the "sunshine state", it is almost tropical - hot and humid, not good weather for running around after a presidential candidate in a suit and tie.

It must though be doubly uncomfortable for John McCain. A month or so ago he would have assumed Florida would be his for the taking come election day. Just as he would have assumed Virginia would be too. And as he would have hoped Pennsylvania might have been.

The electoral mathematics is not shaping up as he would have liked though. He is on the defensive in states that he had hoped to win. Obama is on the attack, pouring in money and advertising, and volunteers, and using that grassroots support structure on which so much of his campaign has been built.

The McCain campaign just doesn't seem as well organized.

Before the latest John McCain rally, in Melbourne, Florida, we went to film on the beach. A dirty job, but someone's got to do it.

Not a bad place to do a "poll" of sorts.

The man from Florida setting up his fishing line said he would vote for McCain. He said the state might not, since so many people from New York had moved here, and they tend to lean Democrat. The largest he's caught from the beach was 52 inches.

The man from Alabama sitting in his T-shirt with his family and contemplating the waves was unsure. It was probably McCain, but he's still not certain, and in his thick southern drawl he said everyone's really worried about the economy in the coming years. It makes him focus on the choice for president. He had a family size cool box next to him packed with ice and cans.

The elderly couple from Missouri lying on their fold out beds were sure. Obama. He's the best man to lead the country. They've thought about it a lot. They have retired, they have no way of re-building their wealth. They have decided their futures are safer with Obama. But whoever the next president is, they're sure it's going to be a tough four years to run the country.

Getting his mojo back?

Matthew Price
17 Oct 08, 07:42 AM GMT

Joe the plumber is not.

But if you're still wondering about some of the questions raised about the economic plans he provoked, a discussion on here is a quick read.

McCain was pretty good on Letterman. Funny, chatty, sharp. Is he getting his mojo back?

He likes a fight and spending the next 18 days defending Republican states, rather than gaining Democratic ones, is a huge battle. Perhaps it's inspired him.

Back on the stump

Matthew Price
16 Oct 08, 10:21 PM GMT

Has John McCain finally found his feet after several days in which he appeared to lose his focus and his direction?

In a rally in Downingtown, Pennsylvania, he sounded his surest yet.

Of the handful of rallies that I have seen, this was the best.

Lashing out at Barack Obama over what he regards as the crucial issue of at the moment, namely: Joe the plumber.

This was a plumber who met Barack Obama on the campaign trail last Sunday.

Senator Obama said he believes in using taxes as a way of redistributing wealth.

Mr McCain was at his most lively saying he did not believe that America and Americans should have to redistribute wealth.

He believes the best way forward for America is to create more wealth.

It was John McCain fighting with politics rather than with negativity,something his campaign has been accused of in recent weeks.

Yes, those personal attacks continue in advertisements that run on television and radio stations, but on the campaign trail, on the stump, on stage in front of his supporters John McCain really seems to find his voice when he is fighting Obama on his policies.

Joe the plumber may have come too late for John McCain.

Perhaps his greatest adversary now is time, but - as he keeps reminding people - there are still 19 days left in this campaign.

And he and many of his supporters that I have spoken to believe that they can turn this around.

What McCain fans thought of his debate performance

Matthew Price
16 Oct 08, 05:35 PM GMT

John McCain is due to arrive at his latest rally in Downingtown, Pennsylvania, shortly.

I had a quick chat with people in the audience. As you'd expect at a McCain rally they all think he did the better job in last night's debate, but it was interesting that one woman I spoke to said she could not bear to watch the debate because she feared that McCain would not do as good a job as he should. Pretty telling.

There are people - Republicans and McCain supporters - who are worried he has not been getting his message across.

McCain's negativity

Matthew Price
16 Oct 08, 04:11 AM GMT

EXTON, PENNSYLVANIA: So Joe made an appearance - several in fact. Does he make a difference, do you think? I noticed no-one picked up on him in the comments after yesterday's blog. Is tax important as an issue this election?

As for who won, the answer here in Pennsylvania is clear. The Phillies.

No, I'm not being trivial or flippant. John McCain wants to win Pennsylvania, and therefore needs his message to get across to people here.

But not as many as he would have liked were watching this debate, as so many in this state were watching a crucial baseball game.

Before the debate, we circled a few bars that had shown the first debates. The screens were focused on the game instead.

At one bar, a table of sensible middle-aged voters told me the game was the only thing they'd watch this evening. "Anyway, I've seen enough debates, I've made up my mind," one man said.

We spoke about negativity, and John McCain getting personal about Barack Obama recently.

"I've voted Republican. I supported John McCain in 2000 against Bush," one said. "I've always supported McCain. But when his campaign went negative, it's not him. I won't be voting for him."

Others felt the campaign had been taken over by the Republican party and they didn't like that, for them it tainted their opinion of "McCain-the-maverick".

One added: "He needs to talk about specifics."

Well he did tonight, but he also had his moments of negativity. When, though, he spoke about his experience, his desire to rein in government spending, his belief in cutting taxes, that will have gone down well with many voters.

I still feel though that, while he clearly had his best performance of all the debates, he doesn't lay out a coherent argument often enough. He seems to get halfway through a great point, countering Obama, and then gets sidelined.

Another interesting factor I came across today while asking Republicans what they wanted from this debate, and what they want from Mr McCain: some don't seem to want Sarah Palin.

The (Republican) women I spoke to - many, not all - say they probably will vote for McCain, but they are worried about Mrs Palin's lack of experience. Interestingly some also said they are intrigued by Mr Obama.

That made me wonder if the difference between the two candidates' chances is perhaps at the moment summed up like this.

Obama's natural supporters are actually energized and excited by him.

McCain's natural supporters see their candidate as simply solid.

But many of those who by party affiliation would consider themselves naturally in the McCain camp, find themselves surprisingly intrigued by Obama, and some are flirting with the idea of voting for him.

Tonight, the question is whether McCain did enough to change their minds.

Swing voters

Matthew Price
15 Oct 08, 07:34 PM GMT

Exton, Pennsylvania: It is such a stunning day in Pennsylvania.

Warm, bright, blue skies and the leaves turning almost as I write.

Under those blue skies we found several golfers, literally swing voters (apologies), and we spoke to them about the state of play (sorry) of the race from their perspective.

What I found interesting is that there are still people who have not made up their minds yet.

Jim Shanahan is among them. He is going to be watching the debate to see if there is any more detail on who will pay for either candidate's economic plan.

And what of this from Rich Johnson: "I have some concerns about Barack Obama's background, I'm pleased with what he's saying, but I have some concerns about him."

Of course, as Aussieeye pointed out a couple of days ago, "for every die-hard Republican who now thinks Obama is a terrorist, there is an independent voter who was suddenly seeing McCain as a sideshow while Obama talked about the issues," but Mr Johnson is an independent at the moment, and he would like to vote for Obama, but is worried about some of the stories he has heard about him.

How many more like him will there be come polling day?

Old South also makes a point worth considering: "The election will be much, much closer than the polls now indicate ... as people contemplate what life might look like with Obama, Pelosi, Reid, the Clintons, and Barney Frank running the country, I suspect decisions may change."

John McCain surely has to try and exploit such feelings tonight in the debate?

Old South also followed up on my comment about the McCain rallies seeming to lack energy, by saying "There seemed to be a LOT of energy in the room!"

That is true, but I am just sensing that the energy does not leave the room in the way I have seen it leaving the room after Obama events.

Finally, another thought, related to sport.

Pennsylvania is a battleground state, a state McCain is desperate to win.

He needs to prove to people tonight here why they should vote for him.

One potential problem - many may not be watching.

The Phillies take on the Dodgers in the (baseball) National League Playoffs just as Mr McCain and Mr Obama are slugging it out on Long Island.

If Mr McCain hits a home run, how many here will actually see it?

UPDATE:

It does seem that John McCain might have a bit of a problem, certainly in the part of Pennsylvania that we've been travelling in.

We're in a town called Exton and like much of this part of the state tonight they are not going to be glued to his final debate performance.

We have gone to a series of bars which have - we are told - shown the previous debates, but tonight they are going to be watching the Phillies play the LA Dodgers for a place in the world series.

One table of politically informed people I just spoke to said "there is no choice, it has to be the game not the debate".

It is a bit of a problem for Mr McCain.

He needs to get his message across in Pennsylvania, a state vital to his chances of winning the White House.

Replumbing taxes

Matthew Price
14 Oct 08, 11:54 PM GMT

The leaves are just starting to turn in Pennsylvania.

John McCain believes (hopes?) his fortunes are too.

It wasn't entirely coincidental that his campaign seemed to nose dive along with the stock markets.

Might he then expect a little rebound, just as the Dow shot up again on Monday? OK, it did drop again on Tuesday, but surely his team will be hoping for less bad news on the economic front in the coming 21 days left before the election.

We drove through the orange and gold of the autumn leaves into Blue Bell, Pennsylvania at around 9.30am, went through the very polite secret service checks, and into what normally is a basketball hall.

Two hours later, to the sound of the Rocky theme tune, the self-styled fighter McCain strode out, a couple of thousand cheering him on.

It was as promised a speech about the economy. His plans to tackle it.

It felt like a re-launch of his campaign to be honest. An attempt to shift the focus back onto him, to show that he is the best man for the job.

He is also attempting to spread the fear about Barack Obama - not, for now, about his background - but about his politics. Here's an excerpt:

"This weekend, a plumber concerned that Senator Obama was going to raise his taxes asked him directly about his plan. The response was telling. Senator Obama explained to him that he was going to raise his taxes to 'spread the wealth around'."

Now this does work with many here who do not see the role of government as "spreading the wealth". People work hard for their money, and many believe they shouldn't have to give it away to support others. I know everyone dislikes paying taxes, but in the US I think more people feel a lot more strongly about it than in Europe for instance.

One woman, a young mother named Roberta Kolonis who I spoke to during the rally told me "Obama scares me, there's a lot we don't know about him." His policies, and his associates she added.

Is a McCain tack towards the economy too late to save his chances?

The latest poll - and yes, it's a national one, so may not be too meaningful, but it does give a huge lead to Obama - suggests it may be. But constantly those I speak to on the campaign trail tell me to ignore the polls.

Personally the feeling I get from the McCain rallies right now is that the energy is gone, and the belief. At the time when he most needs to be fighting as hard as possible. This is a crucial week.

His best chance probably lies in doing what he did today - talking to the people on issues about which they care and on which they connect.

After the rally we tracked down a great Italian style deli and restaurant. I won't print its name, since as we sat and munched on our huge Hoagies packed with salami and cheese imported from Italy, the owner told us she didn't often tell her customers that she wants Obama to win.

"There aren't many around here who'll vote for him though. My customers say he's intelligent, but they don't like that. And they say he doesn't have the experience."

Hearing the issues

Matthew Price
13 Oct 08, 08:35 PM GMT

It is impossible to judge these things perfectly, and I am sure plenty of people have a different take on this rally in Virginia Beach, Virginia, but it seemed a bit lacklustre to me.

The crowd did get geed up, on many occasions. And maybe it's unfair to point out that we watched several dozen people leaving a good 10 minutes before the end of John McCain's speech - since many thousands more stayed.

Surely, though, they came to see him, to hear him. It's not like a football game when your team is losing by a big margin and you stride out in protest or simply to get to the car park before everyone else. Or perhaps that is exactly what it is like?

Those who left though were in the minority, by far.

Before the rally started I spoke to a couple of ladies to get a sense of what they wanted to hear from John McCain.

Bonnie Proutt (who gave me one of her fantastic homemade almond cookies "to keep your sugar levels up") and Carol Rothman are their names.

Carol said she "didn't want to hear" any more negative attacks against Barack Obama: "We want to hear the issues."

Bonnie told me it was all about "policies. I think he's doing a disservice to himself with the negative campaigning," she added.

Others seem to agree.

So fast-forward less than an hour, through country singer Hank Williams Jnr, then Cindy McCain, Sarah Palin, and finally John McCain (who did focus on the issues), and what had Bonnie and Carol thought?

"He's much stronger in person than on television," said Carol.

"Very powerful. The taxes, the economy, the health - he was wonderful," Bonnie said.

OK, they are only two observers, but I do think we sometimes chose to ignore the calm, sober, reflective Americans who simply like John McCain. They have been lost in recent days in a flurry of articles that have focused on the more angry elements of the senator's support base. It's good we hear such voices, of course, but we shouldn't forget those like Bonnie and Carol.

And they might have had a point, these two ladies who I guess are in their late 50s.

If McCain can focus on the issues he might claw back some ground. With the economy so bad, the noise it's generating is drowning out everything else - it has to be his narrative too.

That said, the McCain campaign - if it can re-focus on the economy now - may have (as far as it is concerned) played a blinder.

The last few days of negative campaigning have pushed a slew of rumours and innuendo about Barack Obama into many voters' minds.

One man I met on the way into the rally told me Obama "is friends with terrorists." Do you actually believe that, I asked? "Absolutely," he replied.

And then there was Hank Williams Jnr who performed on stage before and after the speeches.

One song, was about McCain and Palin, and he sang: "They don't have terror friends to whom their career is linked."

McCain can focus on the economy, if last week has got enough of his supporters continuing the negative campaigning themselves - with or without his blessing.

Palin's cheer

Matthew Price
13 Oct 08, 03:18 PM GMT

Who's running? The rally here at Virginia Beach is just starting, and Thelma Drake - the Republican Congresswoman for Virginia's 2nd district - has announced who'll be on stage in a bit.

John McCain got a good cheer. Then there was a slightly longer one for Hank Williams Jnr who'll be on stage shortly.

"And of course," (pause for dramatic effect) "the Governor of Alaska, Sarah Palin."

The cheer was twice as long as either of the past two.

Now Thelma Drake has just said: "Sarah Palin is a breath of fresh air." The crowd love it.

Oh, and on that subject of how many will wear red? It's about half of the crowd. Which we're estimating at around 25,000 - but I'm useless at working out crowd sizes!

Keeping Virginia red

Matthew Price
13 Oct 08, 03:50 AM GMT

VIRGINIA BEACH: If there's anywhere you would have assumed John McCain would do well it's Virginia Beach.

John McCain This is home to the biggest naval yard in the world, so there will be hearty support for the former navy aviator here.

Not that everyone in the military supports him of course - at the Democratic convention I interviewed one former US Navy rear admiral campaigning for Obama.

But many in the military do see John McCain as their man.

Even in Virginia Beach though, there are concerns about Senator McCain's campaign. The state's Republican leadership is worried that he's not getting his message across.

This is a little old but gets the message across.

The polls suggest an Obama victory here - in a state that last voted a Democrat for president way back in 1964.

If McCain can't win here, he's not going to win the White House.

On Monday he turns up at the convention centre, just outside my hotel window, to try and persuade the faithful and not so faithful.

It might be easier here than in northern Virginia where population changes over the years have brought in a more Democratic-leaning crowd.

He needs their support here though.

One measure of that might be whether there's a good response to this message on the campaign's Virginia website, asking people to turn up at the rally: "Show your support by wearing RED to remind everyone to keep Virginia Red this November!"

I'll get back to you on how many are wearing Republican red in a few hours.

In the meantime, McCain has to work out how he runs the rest of his campaign.

Does he continue the (some say racist) attacks on Barack Obama's character that have characterized the last week or so in an attempt - as one advisor put it - to shift the focus off the economy?

If he does, he risks further angering the growing voices who - like that veteran of the civil rights movement, John Lewis - accuse him of "sowing hatred".

McCain has never struck me as someone particularly happy with such a style of politics. Remember Karl Rove's smears about him during the 2000 primary contest against George W Bush?

The dilemma McCain faces of course, as his poll numbers slide, is whether such attacks - awkward as he might feel about them - might be his best chance of winning this election?

As one colleague put it to me, this is McCain's dilemma, it is "the battle for his soul".

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I'm Razia Iqbal, the BBC's arts correspondent. This blog is my take on the UK's arts and culture scene.