Historic revolutions shed light on Egypt unrest
Don't trust a revolution by its slogans. Since 1789 when the sans-culottes rose up against Louis XVI, revolutions have been organic creatures, full of surprises and unscripted turns.
Writing in the Financial Times, Gideon Rachman, author of Zero Sum Future and interviewed tonight on WNA, has written an excellent account of how revolutions tend to morph.
The Egyptian one seems to have hit a lull. Tahrir Square resembles a cross between Speaker's Corner and the Hay on Wye Literary Festival. The mood is calm. The caravanserai has been organised with security checks, night watch shifts and cleaning details.
There is even a non-smoking area, which must be a first not just in the Arab world but for any revolution. Civic pride has been re-oxygenated by the new found freedom of expression. And gradually as the new normal sets in, the international cameras will turn away, their eyes glazing over with a lack of hour by hour excitement.
For the demonstrators, this is the maximum moment of danger. Deals could get done between the military and the Muslim Brotherhood that ignore the basic civic principles of this revolution. At some stage, the military, which has stayed meticulously in the wings till now, could snap. Remember how the Tiananmen Square demonstration went on for weeks in a festive spirit before the Paramount leader Deng Xiao Ping decided that enough was enough. Even if the tanks stay silent, it is possible that this revolution will lurch from one stage to the next.
At the moment, no Israeli or American flags are being burnt. How rare is that? But frustration with the West and loathing for Israel simmers beneath the surface. After all, where would Mubarak and his crony generals be without America's help?
The Muslim Brotherhood is also playing a cautious game. They may well have become tamed after years in opposition. They look reassuring in their suits. But will they really insist on honouring the Camp David agreement?
The jury is surely out on that one. In Washington, we are inspired by the romantic narrative of a revolution. We hear educated voices - in fluent English - demanding finally to be heard. In Tehran, they are inspired by what they see as oppressed Muslim brothers and sisters finally thumbing their nose at an American puppet.
The stakes are huge for all sides. Tahrir Square has become the Great Game and this story is a work in progress, to put it mildly.
~RS~q~RS~~RS~z~RS~37~RS~)
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"The Muslim Brotherhood is also playing a cautious game. They may well have become tamed after years in opposition. They look reassuring in their suits. But will they really insist on honouring the Camp David agreement?"
There is plenty of time to grow the beards later. As to the Camp David agreement, the US has already made its position known on it, as it pertains to any future Egyptian government.
'"Our expectation would be that whatever the next government of Egypt is, that they would adhere to a treaty signed by the government of Egypt," White House spokesman Robert Gibbs said.'
If they do not, there is always a way to turn back time and see if the US supplied weapons to Egypt will make any difference...
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After seeing the Mubarak thug violence and Suleiman being hugged and praised in Israel, my definition of terrorism and terror regimes has been expanded.
The only way the Peace Treaty is going to have any chance of holding-- is with the formation of a Palestinian State --and a better standard of living for the Egyptians and Palestinians --and that is the minimum !
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Of course there is another possibility. That the 'revolution' in Egypt (although I wouldn't call it that, more an 'uprising') remains secular. Setting a trend perhaps? It might explain why things are moving forward so fast yet so measured. There is the Muslim Brotherhood. But most of the protagonists in the protests seem to be young people, who may not be quite so indoctrinated by any particular faith franchise. As Matt wanted to discuss in a previous blog, this started on Facebook. There may well be other players before they get around to an actual election. Meanwhile the army shows no signs of kicking off whatsoever, in a very Turkish favour. So far its all very grown up.
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#3, Francis power:
Yes, secular for now, but you just know that lurking in the wings are groups with their own agenda, less tolerant and more insistent on there way as the only way.
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@ 4 d_m
Well we don't know do we? We can assume but there is something about this that feels new. Sure we know those groups are there but will they get any traction? It seems to me that the way this started even the Muslim Brotherhood have had to seriously dilute their rhetoric and actions. I have a feeling that this uprising has a very secular DNA to it which, if true, is wonderful news for the middle east. Don't deny an old fool a little optimism!
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#5, Francis power:
Based on past such events, the outcome seems dubious. The longer this goes on without resolution the more opportunities there are for things to go wrong. I hope your are right though.
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Nasser's revolt and subsequent rule was essentially secular and pan-arabist in ideology. There is no real reason why Mubarak's scary story(2D, in black & white)that the only choices are between him and a full-on Islamist terror state should come true.
The Muslim Brotherhood have effectively become institutionalised. It was obvious that the whole revolt/uprising/revolution took them by surprise. They were no more in control of the situation than Mubarak was. There is also the problem that being in opposition is easy; being in government involves actually doing something, which voters may or may not remember.
Hopefuly, the situation will develop peacefully , and ordinary Egyptians wil see improvements in their daily lives. Any government will have to deal with the factors underlying this situation, and there are no easy or quick solutions. The structural problems in Egypt, such as very high youth unemployment, a population which is straining the resources of the country, and an educational system which is not fit for purpose, will not be fixed overnight.
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@ 7 MacTurk
As you say, so much of the structural problem concerns young Egyptians, education and employment. However we are seeing a growing trend across the African continent for relatively young, highly educated (in the west's best universities) people coming back to their countries of origin and going about replacing the old guard, and the old corruption with new governance models. For example this is happening in Nigeria. It is not about an overnight revolution, bloodless or otherwise. Progress is being achieved for the most part in incremental but firm steps, over a sensible time horizon. I think that is partly what we are seeing in North Africa right now. What is stunning is the speed at which things have started in Tunisia, the Yemen and Egypt. And I agree, there is no reason why the mullahs need to get a look in.
Could this result in a political landscape across the middle east that is free of religious fundamentalism? Well sadly not because there is still Israel and they are by definition religious fundamentalists. Although their idea of how to impose their religion has more to do with occupying somebody else's land and then simply eliminating the indigenous population rather than attempting to convert it. There was an Austrian who was all into that back in the twentieth century. Horrid man. Who was it now....?
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4. At 11:55pm on 08 Feb 2011, d_m wrote:
"Yes, secular for now, but you just know that lurking in the wings are groups with their own agenda, less tolerant and more insistent on there way as the only way."
Are you using Israel as an example ?
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US foreign policy has an extremely long history of installing, supporting, arming and otherwise backing dictatorial regimes IF the dictatorial regime
1. supports American imperialism and
2. can control its own people.
Presidents worked for over 30 years with the Trujillo Dictatorship in the Dominican Republic; installed the Diem Regime in pre-revolutionary Vietnam; worked with two generations of the Somoza Family Regimes in Nicaragua; financed the attempted military coup in Cuba 1952, Brazil 1964, Chile in 1973, and in Argentina in 1976.
When people finally challenged a dictatorship, The White House had a pitchfork answer (three pronged):
1. publically criticizing the human rights violations and advocating democratic reforms;
2. privately signaling continued support to the dictator; and
3. seeking an alternative which could substitute for the used-up dictator, thereby preserving the regime, the corrupted economic system and US imperialist interests.
And this is exactly what we have seen in Egypt.
The dictators assume that their relationships with the United States are strategic: hence their surprise when they are sacrificed to save the regime itself. Fearing revolution, the White House has had reluctant dictators, unwilling to move on e.g. assassinated Trujillo and Diem. Some more fortunate are provided sanctuaries e.g. Somoza & Batista.
The Washington decision on when to take "strategic" action is based on the capacity of the dictator to withstand the political uprising, but more the strength of the armed forces and the availability of a cooperative replacement.
There is a risk of waiting too long. If the White House waits too long, the uprising could become unstopable; a peoples' revolution could sweep away the regime, the state apparatus, leaving a successful social revolution. e.g. of waiting too long: Nicaragua, when President Carter stayed the course with Samoza; the regime was overthrown and the revolutionary forces destroyed the US & Israeli trained military, secret police and intelligence apparatus. The country went on to nationalize US property and develop an independent foreign policy.
Obama has been extremely hesitant to oust Mubarak.
The White House has many clients around the world – including Honduras, Mexico, Indonesia, Jordan and Algeria – who believe they have a strategic relationship with Washington and will lose confidence in Washington if Mubarak gets dumped.
Secondly, the highly influential leading pro-Israel organization in the US (AIPAC) are lobbying congressional leaders to maintain pressure on Obama; Israel is the prime beneficiary of Mubarek.
As a result, the Obama administration has moved slowly, fearfully. It is searching for an alternative political formula that removes Mubarak, retains political power and somehow incorporates an electoral alternative. Enter Sulieman! Thank goddness for Sulieman!!
The major obstacle to ousting Mubarak is the state apparatus - 325,000 Central Security Forces and the 60,000 National Guard Forces directly under the Interior Ministry of Mubarak.
To remind Obama of his continued power base, Mubarak sent his thug-secret police to take back the streets. Washington and the EU pressured Mubarak to stop.
As the pressure mounts, Obama is being pressed by the pro Mubarak Israel Lobby and by experienced advisors who call on him to follow past practices, move decisively - sacrifice Mubarek, save the regime.
Obama hesitates.
If the White House waits too long, the Egyptian uprising could become unstopable; a peoples' revolution could sweep away the regime, the state apparatus, leaving a successful social revolution.
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Egypt =/= Palestine
Palestine =/= Israel
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Matt Frei wrote:
"The stakes are huge for all sides. Tahrir Square has become the Great Game and this story is a work in progress, to put it mildly."
The Egyptian military appears to have played its hand very well, as to where much credit is due, bravo! That potential standoff alone, between the military and hundreds of thousands of protesters, then followed by a peaceful withdrawal by both sides, effectively set a stage which no other party could possibly overshadow.
This has been a genuine populist uprising, where there was but one demand, the resignation of President Mubarak, which largely came true, and the purity of this uprising was not marred or confused by any other political or religious message, none. That solidarity indicates that the presidential election of this coming September is and will be the main focus of the Egyptian people, and of the nation of Egypt.
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k# 9, quietoaktree:
No, I wasn't. I was thinking that the longer the unrest continues without realizing it's goal of forcing Mubarak to leave the greater the risk that it will find a new, possibly less benign goal. I guess I was thinking more along the lines of Orwell's Animal Farm.
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#11, JMay:
Too cryptic for me.
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d_m @4
Yes, secular for now, but you just know that lurking in the wings are groups with their own agenda, less tolerant and more insistent on there way as the only way.
Oaktree @ 9 Are you using Israel as an example ?
More to the point d_m, are talking about the USA here? ;-)
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#14
Palestine discussions are irrelevant to Egypt or Israel or the relationship between those two countries. To some people, Egypt and Palestine are interchangeable, as are Palestine and Israel.
I simply commented on the folly of that.
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#16, JMay:
I agree. They aren't the same thing.
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#16, JMay:
P.S. to 17:
I agree, they are &ne
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Wonder why that didn't work: It should have been ≠ which = is not equal to
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The US has become out-of-step, too historical. It has been left behind in a world where might meant power, but people power counted for nothing because you could always mow people down with guns and watch the blood run through the streets.
US security structures are obsolete; its intelligence pathetic.
Who's the biggest danger to the United States right now?
Osama bin Laden?
I don't think so.
The #1 fellow should be a man from Yemen. The danger from this man to Saudi Arabia and Bab-el-Mandeb – every ship crossing the Suez Canal sails through Bab-el-Mandeb between Yemen and Somalia.
The Yemen situation is shaping up into a division of Yemen into two states
1. the Shafi south and
2. the Zaidi north.
Civil war could break out any day.
I believe that President Saleh used the presence of a few Al Qaeda to persuade the US Administration that he was/is their strategic partner - all he needed was a little money, a little military support.
The United States remained frozen in time. They allowed themselves to be drawn into Yemen on the say-so of President Saleh. The United States can win nothing in Yemen; there is really no Al Qaeda to be stopped. This means another losing field for the United States, in addition to Afghanistan and Iraq.
US security structures are obsolete; its intelligence pathetic.
If the Americans did not see the Egyptian situation coming, what other little important things are they missing?
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#20
"US security structures are obsolete; its intelligence pathetic."
It does well enough in issues that matter.
"If the Americans did not see the Egyptian situation coming, what other little important things are they missing?"
Suppose they would have seen the Egyptian situation, ahead of time. What difference would that have made, other than perhaps help Obama look less like the amateur that he is?
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