A dark horizon: or a boost for the eurozone ?
A new official economic survey for the European Union calls the outlook "bleak" - although it predicts things will get better by this time next year.
The European Commission's autumn forecast suggests the EU is now just going into recession and the economy will "grind to a standstill". Its prediction for 2008 to 2010 predicts unemployment in the EU will rise to 7.8% next year and go up again in 2010.
The economic commissioner Joaquin Almunia says that "the economic horizon has now significantly darkened" but the forecast predicts only a slowdown and not recession in 2009. While it predicts hardly any growth in the first half of next year it suggests things will pick up after that, meaning that the European Union would avoid going into recession.
But Mr Almunia sees, from his point of view, one silver lining : he said that countries like Poland and Denmark had "seen the risks of not being members of the euro" and that he thought there would be "renewed political will" to join.
I am fascinated how this, and the government's apparent intention to become the 16th member of the eurozone, will go down in Denmark.
I’m Mark Mardell, the BBC's North America editor. These are my reflections on American politics, some thoughts on being a Brit living in the USA, and who knows what else? My 
~RS~q~RS~~RS~z~RS~00~RS~)
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A commentator here in Hungary has recently suggested that there may be some lessening of euroscepticism as a result of the recent global economic problems. His argument is that many believe, had Hungary been in the Euro, the present enormous rescue package would not have been necessary. To me, the fact that there was this vulnerability in the economy suggests that the forint would not have satisfied the criteria and that it is therefore a bit academic. It might, however, signal a shift in attitude.
The next big test will be Slovakia, which joins the eurozone next year. It will be interesting to see how it fairs in the new economic environment. If the outcome is seen as positive, Mr. Almunia could well be right with Poland, Denmark and Hungary upping the tempo towards joining the club.
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My analysis is that the report is far to optimistic. It's going to be far worse than this prediction, especially in Europe and China. That's how I see it.
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Wolfgang Munchau is in the FT today making a similar point. According to his article Icelandic support for joining the EU has gone up from 50% to over 66%, and support for Iceland joining the Euro is even higher.
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To threnodio (1):
The problem of Forinth is that its small. When a currency is small..
1) It is more vulnerable to currency speculation, in example hedge funds can short it easily as happened with Icelandic Krona.
2) It is more vulnerable to changes in economy. If there is a large escape of capital in worst case scenario can empty central banks currency reserves and thus create an disruption to trade for that country. In just bad situation interest rates shot to skies as the central banks tries to increase its currency reserves.
3) As the whole economy is more vulnerable it follows that generally the interests rates are higher in that country, and if they are considerably higher than interest rates of US, Euro or Yen, then people taking loans in those currencies cause an additional vulnerability to that economy.
The problem is that even UK can be vulnerable to this. In the beginning of 90s George Soros played Bank of England 1-0.
When country uses Euro it has less vulnerabilities because it just massively bigger and as it is the trading currency. Both ECB and Fed have been able to lower their interest rates as they don't have to fear capital escape.
I think this economic crisis, if Eurozone handles it even satisfactorily, will increase interest to join Euro not only in countries you mentioned, but in Sweden and Baltics too.
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I believe within the same Economic Forecast there is also the suggestion that the United Kingdom will be the EU Nation worst affected by the Recession?
Unemployment will increase by 25 per cent to reach 2.25 million people next year.
The UK Budget Deficit is expected to increase and the UK Economy contract by a full 1 percentage point.
According to European Union economic forecasts the UK Labour Government, led by "prudent" Gordon Brown will have ownership over one of Europs'e highest rates of public debt whilst the UK economy is shrinking.
I believe the Report also warns against the idea of higher public spending as the economy and tax revenues contract – a tactic that Mr Brown has already said is the best course of action for the UK?
I wonder why Mark has not mentioned this facet of the EU Report? Perhaps Mark does not want to peston the UK's economy and damage it any more than the UK Labour government has already peston'd it!
I think the UK is returning to the days of being the "Sick Man of Europe" very fast.
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well the euro what can i say the british will never back such a bad currrencey one rate fits all not is now starting to show down with the EU .bbc to pro
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Now that Britain and the rest of the EU is in dire financial straits; will our illustrious Prime Minister retract those degrading comments he made about Ireland and Iceland so that he could make political capital against the SNP, just because a by-election is coming up in Fife? To insult our neighbours like that was an atrocious thing to do. The Foreign Office must have been cringing with embarrassment.
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#4 - Jukka_Rohila
I cannot argue with any of that. However, it is interesting to note that most eastern European banks were not seriously exposed to the sub-prime fallout. They therefore did not need to offer the same guarantees. When western banks started guaranteeing deposits, a massive exodus of deposits was pretty much inevitable. This is certainly not the case with Iceland and I find it ironic that small eastern economies have become exposed despite not doing very much wrong.
The current situation, however, does make the case for monetary union much more convincing although it has been the ultimate goal of local economies for a long time whereas I sometimes wonder how many hoops the Brits are willing to jump though to ensure the criteria are NOT met.
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#7 - gedguy2
I have not seen Father Brown's contribution but wee Alec Salmond's remarks about the 'arc of prosperity' are looking a bit silly as well. Comforting to know that, while we are engaging in meaningful dialogue about the destiny of Europe, it's politics as usual back in Blighty.
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#5. Menedemus wrote:
I think the UK is returning to the days of being the "Sick Man of Europe" very fast
Sick and (self) isolated - (self) excluded from currency stability that the business within our major trading partners benefit from.
This situation is not the reason my fellow students went to the Sorbonne in 1968 to show our solidarity. We sacred General de Gaulle into leaving Paris. We should by now have had the protection of the single currency, but no we had to keep out so that our 'wonderful' City of London could 'thrive'. Now we see just how damaging to the Nation this isolationist policy has been. The City destroyed manufacturing industry and now it has destroyed itself and we are left defenceless.
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I just returned from a car trip through UK,France, Belgium and Germany. Nice the Euro especially when I buy in Belgium for 1 Euro a litre when The others are over 24% more Euro for Euro.
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Re my post 8, no idea why it is being sent for moderation. It basically referred to the whole press release given out by the E.U. which was very gloomy about the future economic situation. Also it revised it's growth figures. In June 2008 it said the E.U. would grow 2% in 2008 and 1.8% in 2009. Latest figures from the press release (from my memory) were 1.2% in 2008 and 0.2% in 2009. So the accuracy of it's forecasts are not that great, not blaming them as others have made similar mistakes.
I did make the suggestion in a thoroughly gloomy amd depressing report you would have to be a great spin doctor to get from it that the countries in the Eurozone would be safe.
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things are going to get very bad in this country. an imf (or ecb) bailout in the next 12 months is a real possibility.
the recent round of recapitalisation (gbp 50bn = 3.5% of gdp) covers about a third of likely banking losses over the next year or two. the british banking sector's collective balance sheet is 420% of uk gdp. that means every 1% of losses by banks would equate to a 4.2% budget deficit for the uk govt when our banks have been fully nationalised.
the housing market meltdown in the uk has only just begun. prices are down 14% so far according to nationwide. they have another 20-30% to go, meaning big mortgage losses to come. but mortgages are only one part of the problem. household debts in the uk are 170% of gdp. this includes not only mortgages, but also credit card debts. credit cards are a big worry, as the lenders can (and in many cases now will) withdraw cards at a month's notice. people with poor credit scores who have maxed out multiple cards are pretty much doomed. similar credit-bubble related problems also exist in corporate debt and will surface in the next 6-12 months.
there are a few plusses to the uk being outside the euro:
- uk is an open economy and sensitive to export demand / import substititution, so the collapse in the pound will help stimulate demand for uk output (assuming anyone else on the planet is interested in importing anything for the next few years) much more than e.g. a dollar collapse would for the usa
- our economy is in much deeper trouble than most of the eurozone except spain (it is true that the eurozone's banking sector also took spectacular losses thanks to the marvel of credit derivatives, but unlike the uk their economy is not up to its eyeballs in debts that now have to be repaid), so we will probably want to cut rates more and for longer than the ecb will
personally i think there has always been a very strong economic case for the uk remaining outside the eurozone because our economy's structure differs from the eurozone's in two ways that would cause genuine "one size fits all" problems for us. namely:
- financial services are a big part of the economy and cause classic "dutch disease" (strong inflationary pressures in london, leading to structurally higher interest rates and an overvalued exchange rate, killing off manufacturing)
- much higher levels of home ownership and reliance on variable rate mortgages means uk household spending is very sensitive to interest rates
what is interesting is that the current crisis is likely to eliminate both of these structural differences.
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# 10 Threnodio
I wanted to do a rant here but you are such a nice person that feel I would be in the wrong if attempted that. So, I'll try and be nice too.
Wee Alex, as you so kindly put, did indeed say that before the credit crunch arrived and had to eat his words, but only about Iceland. Ireland was added to that list by Pa Broon (See the Sunday Post comic strip)
because it was going into a recession. Oops, isn't Britain about to go into one of those nasty recession things too? That's strange because Pa Broon had been 'prudently' taking care of the economy for the last eleven years. Pa Broon also neglected to talk about the other country in Wee Alex's 'Arc of Prosperity', Norway. I wonder why he avoided talking about that country? Could it be that this credit crunch is hardly going to effect them because of the 'prudent' use the Norwegians have done concerning their oil revenues. Why is it that Scotland is the only oil producing country in the world that never sees a penny of this revenue?
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#14 - benagyerek
Good Lord, how ironic that would be. Britain meeting the convergence criteria as a result of the global downturn?
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I don't pretend to know much about economics, derivitives and such like. What I do know is the the bankers were playing roulette and lost. As usual it is going to be the hard working citizens of this world who are going to suffer for this. The bankers, who got us into this mess in the first place are still going to get their 'Golden Parachutes'. What are we going to get, except poorer. It stinks!
As to the politicians of this world who sat back and watched all this happening and did nothing about it; what is happening to them? Nothing.
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#14 yep to that.
I've got no idea where all this optimism is coming from about the future of the UK economy. There isn't one fire to put out in Financial Services, it's burning everywhere.
Ever since I came to live in the UK (8 years ago) I have been baffled by what this economic 'boom' is based on. Maybe that: people buying credit-funded poor-quality houses at hugely inflated prices, then feeling rich because of the 'property values', going on a mad credit-fuelled shopping spree thereby propping up growth of the economy which was based mainly on high-street spending...
The result? A hugely inflated GDP (50% are 'bricks and mortar' according to the Guardian - valued at what level?) for the UK, the fourth largest economy on the planet (excuse the giggles). The national debt-to-asset ratio will shoot up because of house price corrections alone.
Which city in the UK outside London has *not* re-defined itself and pulled itself out of the economic slump in the last decade by some giant shopping centres and huge housing developments, owned and operated by the same financial 'vehicles' which are now in dire straits?
A large sector of the British industry which actually still makes things is tied in with the recent housing boom (construction firms, DIY stores, retail). Where is private ownership of houses, shops etc. (remember you only own it once you've paid the mortgage off!)? In effect huge swathes of British cities are the property of large investment concerns. And pensions? well let's stop here.
It doesn't take much wind to collapse a house of cards, a financial storm like the current one will definitely blow it away. At least Ireland and Spain are in this too.
Let's just hope that the rest of Europe won't be dragged down by this mis-guided neo-liberalism and government-sanctioned greed orgy too much.
Certainly Eastern Europe deserves some sustainable economic growth based on real productivity gains and innovation, to catch up with the rest of us. The last they need are business models which a bunch of bungling, overpaid idiots who can't even add one and one have come up with.
But unfortunately, we're all in this together.
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jordanbasset @ 13
Actually the Autumn Forecast does suggest that France and Germany may be likely to avoid Recession.
If we take that prophesy as being too optimistic then, given that the Report suggests that the UK is going to drown, I think an Ark is in order as (a) if the Report is optimistic, then the UK is beyond hope, and (b) prayers to the Almighty don't travel well through water!
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#15 - gedguy2
You are very gracious so I will afford you the same courtesy.
I think there are three answers to the question: 1. Seen in historical context, at about the time it began to dawn on the oil companies and, more importantly government, that there really was a bonanza to be had, Scottish Nationalism was regarded as being somewhere out on the lunatic fringe of UK politics. Yes, I know there has always been a committed movement with very sound arguments to make but it was really thought of at the time as relevant. I really don't think that anybody in the body politic foresaw the momentum of nationalist politics and the possibility was never allowed for.
2. There are questions of precisely whose oil it is. Yes, it would be under the territorial waters of what would be under Scottish jurisdiction when and if independence comes about. But that is exactly where it would still be were it not for investment from the UK and the US channeled mainly through the City. There is an argument that the ownership of a resource has to be shared with those who have the money and technology to extract it. Scotland has contributed massively in terms of labour and infrastructure but has had great rewards in terms of new employment and technology. Can you imagine Aberdeen without oil?
3. It raises the whole question of what proportion of national (UK) income is redistributed back to Scotland. You probably have a better idea of the figures than me but I would have thought it was touch and go whether the revenue potential of the oil fields is greater than the money that comes from Westminster. Sooner rather than later, it is going to run out. Scotland will then face an entirely new situation, especially as what is left becomes more expensive to extract.
There is nothing anti-Scottish in this assessment. Indeed there are a good many South Britons who believe that Labour has no mandate to govern England and would welcome a SNP breakthrough which would crack the Labour heartland in West Lothian so that England could have it's share of devolved power on par with Edinburgh. I know people in the Highlands, the Islands and the Borders who feel the same way. Many English wish you well in this but I would be wary of making a big political issue out of a declining resource.
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To threnodio (9):
The problem of eastern Europe and banks operating there is the exposure to multiple risks.
In example Estonia. They have had economic growth for a long time that has created an boom and bubble at least in housing markets. So you have 10-20% overrate on property values. Not bad. Now combine this with devaluation of currency another 10-20% and what you have in combination is from is 19% to 36% drop in valuation. The problems start here.
Because boom is bust and recession is on the way, people start to lose jobs or their wages stagnate or decrease thus more and more people can't handle their debts. Now remember that many had their loans in Euros so when the currency has devaluation it means that suddenly people have to spend more to for their loans. Banks are essentially running into problems as people can't pay their debts and as their collaterals are not worth enough.
This reminds so much about what happened in the land reindeer's in the beginning of 90s. The collapse started from companies, spread into a panic in stock markets, spread into housing markets, uncertainty exploded, currency collapsed, interest rates went almost to 20%, companies went bankrupt left and right, unemployment rose almost to 20%, banks started to shake, one bank and one insurance company went under and the state debt exploded with an enormous growth rate, its talked that in baddest days that only few days more of beating and the currency would have been nonexchangeable and IMF would have taken charge.
What we however should remember that there is a new morning coming. In the worst days of our depression, most writers and intelligentsia painted the picture of the end, collapse into a third world country, 20 years of ever continuing depression. In the very same time Jorma Ollila in Nokia was painting visions about telecommunications market and planning future growth strategies in their headquarters. In these days of gloom and doom we should remember that better days are going to come.
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Danemark, after Slovakia, will join te Euro. Who's next?
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threnodio @ 16 - i think it will cause structural convergence, but in terms of the maastricht criteria (budget deficit, inflation, exchange rate) quite the opposite!
gedguy2 @ 17 - bankers weren't the only ones playing roulette. you can add to the list insurance companies that dabbled in derivatives, anyone who uses credit cards for consumables, anyone who bought a house in the last three years with a substantial mortgage, anyone in the buy-to-let business, anyone who ran up big debts going to a third rate university the last three years, any construction business with substantial incomplete projects, any business that made a leveraged acquisition the last three years, any business that does not have enough cash in the bank to cover 6 months operational costs, anyone over 50 with a defined contribution pension scheme invested solely in equities, the list goes on..
..oh, and gordon brown
kuhmassy @ 18 - i worked in investment banking until the beginning of this year, when i made what now seems to have been a fortuitously timed career change. it is absolutely true that it was an overinflated sector of the economy, in terms of excessive pay and the sheer volume of business. however, i do think that banking is a true industry in the sense that it does add real value, although it is clearly fashionable now to say otherwise. just because house prices have been overinflated does not mean it is not worth something to have a roof over your head. the same is true of the banking industry. it will remain a core part of the uk economy, and rightfully so.
otherwise i largely agree with your sentiments. the big tragedy of the uk economy is the way in which the success of the london economy has sucked the life out of the provincial uk economy. if we were part of a larger currency union, this would not have happened (instead, following joining the eurozone, there would have been an enormous inflationary boom in london, followed by the inevitable - perhaps in retrospect this would have been preferable to the current sorry mess). i think joining the eurozone (especially at the current exchange rate) will lead to a renaissance of uk manufacturing and the north and west of the country.
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just heard Russians asking on radio a professor in economy here (don't laugh)
- can they continue to buy British pounds, or to buy euros only? what if the UK changes its currency now? The professor (don't laugh) said - "England would love to now, to change to the euro, but they can't stand the transition costs during the crisis."
So, like, continue to buy BP dear Russians, if you like.
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Dear John from Hendon,
Thank you for your exciting and interesting comments on the future of Suffolk over on Nick Robinson's Newsblog as follows:
"321. At 5:26pm on 01 Nov 2008, John_from_Hendon wrote:
#319. SuffolkBoy2
Never mind come the predicted sea level rises of climate change most of Suffolk will be once again reunited with Doggerland under the North Sea.
Doggerland is, if I recall, the name that various archaeologists have given to the vast plain that once enabled you citizens of Suffolk to walk over to the your cousins on the continent!
Before that is there was 'fog in the channel and the continent was cut-off'!"
I assure you that it is not in the interests of Hendon that Suffolk should be flooded. I am sure that you do not wish Hendon to be swamped with beggars from Suffolk. Watch our for the one with the sign "I take Euros." That will be me.
One could think that you rejoice at the thought of Suffolk being flooded. I for my part wish all who live in Hendon or who come from there well. I wish them all a very Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year. I wish everybody throughout the whole world well and also wish them a very Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year.
There is a parallel between the inability or refusal of the government of this country to defend East Anglia against the intrusion of the sea and their similar refusal or inability to defend the UK as a whole from the endless waves of interference and dictatorship of the "EU". The latest high tide is, of course, the Lisbon Treaty.
Some years ago some bloke called Clarke, who is or was a Labour MP for somewhere in Norfolk was interviewed on the telly about sea defences. Going from memory, which is dangerous, he said that you could not spend two million Pounds or something like that, to defend a house worth much less. At the time I thought his logic was flawed in that the sea will continue to encroach and flood land and houses worth much more than that. I also remember thinking that there was a political parallel and that what he was advocating was appeasement. Whether it is stopping Hitler or stopping the sea, you should start early and be determined. Clearly the "EU" is not as bad as Hitler but we do need to resist it and we do need to be determined.
Incidentally a man I met recently who has sailed the East Coast for may years assured me that much of the loss of coastline was due to dredging to allow enormous container ships to enter Felixstowe and other places. My guess is that he is right. I suggest that there are many hidden costs to globalisation and that we need less of it and not more.
I am on a roll now, so I will continue:
My unhumble suggestion is as follows:
Others have already suggested that there should not be a new runway at Stansted but that an artificial island should be built in the Thames Estuary.
I suggest that they are right and that the idea should be extended. The new island should have on it several runways, new ports, harbours, yacht marinas, flats ("apartments"!!!) etc.
I further suggest that here should be a number of such islands up the East Coast of England and partly of Scotland. These island should be linked by a construction just off the coast going from Northern Kent to Scotland. This should have on it motorways, railways, wind and wave power generation arrangements and guess what : flood defences!
In general ports and airports up the East Coast would be put on these islands freeing land for other uses and keeping some nasty smelly things away from the people of Suffolk and elsewhere.
Ah! I think I heart you ask: "And where will the money come from?"
As with any expensive project one part of the answer must be: from leaving the "EU"!!
I have other points to make about saving money but it goes on a bit.
I have been holding back with this brilliant idea because I thought the world was not yet ready for it.
You, John from Hendon, can bask in the glory of having provoked me into going public. Treat yourself to a pint!
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I'm in awe of the media and the pundits. It's the same on American Business channels like CNBC as I'm reading here. It's as though the fact that the entire world is bankrupt is last week's news and that we face a minor recession at worst. Doesn't anyone have a memory that lasts more than five minutes anymore?
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Post 19, Menedemus, will try again to post, hopefully BBC will allow it (starting to get paranoid now!)
The report is very gloomy and there is litle cheer in it. It does report that France and Germany may avoid recession but they say both will see little or no growth. It also reports other eurozone countries will go into recession, as well as the .U.K.
From reading the report I can see no justification for the apparent glee that some supporters of the euro have that they will be safe and countries will be flocking to join the euro. The report itself makes clear more euro zone countries will go into recession that those that don't.
The spin put on this is worthy of Mandelson himself. People just need to be realistic and realise the whole of the world is in for a very rough time and being part of the euro zone will not shield you.
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I know nothing about economics...
Why does an economy have to permanently expand? Why is no growth seen as some sort of catastrophe?
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@ #9 threnodio
The Italian Unicredit Group owns a large share of eastern/central European banks and even is market leader in some. Therefore they are exposed as Unicredit is experiencing problems.
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# 20 Threnodio
Thank you for being gracious and I respect the views that you hold, even if you are English. ;-)
1. You assume that an independent Scotland would not have been able to sort out a deal with the americans to extract the oil. Anybody who thinks that the Scots are not able to make money if they want to doesn't understand the national requirements of all Scots. How do you make a Scotsman cry? Cut the string on his penny. That says it all!
2. You are correct in stating the irrelevence of the SNP before oil was found, but the party was there and has been there for decades. This is a chance that the Scots should grab with both hands. See above paragraph. Aberdeen saw a boom for a short period of time but its citizens are no longer making the sort of money that once was there. The boom went years ago.
3. I suspect that if the Labour government ever dreamed that Scotland would be run by a coalition government run by the SNP then they would never have backed the founding of a Scottish Government. I think they thought that the Scots would always be labour controlled. They have had a rude awakening. Hence the atrocious statement given by Pa Broon about our neighbours and the political attack he made on the SNP when just a short time before he had asked for a consenus in the Westminster parliament to put aside party politics to see us through the credit crunch. Shameful. The labour party is frightened, if it loses Scotland then it loses any chance of being in power in Westminster. As to the hint you dropped about the West Lothian question; that was always a bit of a political farce. If you add up all the seats in N. Ireland, Wales and Scotland, it is still well outnumbered by the English seats. So, in reality, the West Lothian question was a non-starter.
If you want to see how Scotland is 'subsidised', look at the Barnett formula and then tell me if that is fair to either Scotland, N. Ireland or Wales.
As to the English getting independence; they have always had that (see paragraph above) but I would be more than happy to back independence for England considering that I live in England and have always supported the party here that would have a majority if Scotland was out of the equation, but with a small 'c'.
P.s. I know that your post was not anti-Scottish. You are too nice a person for that.
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#26. SuffolkBoy2
In connection with your island mania you might find it interesting to google "north_sea_drainage.jpg".
You will find what looks like page 169 from a magazine called Inventions (1930's I guess) showing a map of a proposal to drain the lower part of the North Sea and once again reinstate the land bridge that so recently existed between Suffolk (and other parts) to Holland, Germany and Denmark. I am sure that this will meet with your proposal to both protect the coast of Suffolk from erosion and link the UK with the Continent of which you have indicated such fondness!
PS Anyone know any more about this 'exciting' drainage proposal?
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#30 - Gheryando
Yes, UniCredit are active her. Another bank which came under a lot of pressure was KandH, which is largely Belgian owned with fears about Fortis having an effect. ING have a big slice of the insurance business as well.
#31 - gedguy2
I am going to start getting moderated out if I keep going to far off topic but I take onboard everything you say. Measured in terms of seats spread throughout the UK, you are right about Labour but take it by region and you have a very different picture. I don't think there is any question that - if there were an English parliament and it was elected by PR, Labour would disappear in a cloud of dust.
In a way, your remarks about Aberdeen underline what I was saying. The boom is more or less boomed out indicating that the oil bonanza days are over si I repeat the question, where is Scotland's national wealth going to come from post oil boom? Barnett, imperfect though it is, plays its part and its removal in the event of Scottish independence would force Scotland to be come a high tax economy with all the disincentives associated.
West Lothian is a thorn in the side of UK politics because the question has never really been resolved. A silly but pertinent example was the way in which the whips dragged Scottish MPs, along with those in NI and Wales into the lobbies to ban smoking in public places in England. It may have been desirable. Democratic it most certainly was not.
I actually favour a federal system and I have spelled this out in detail elsewhere. I think that a high degree of independence with the only reserved matters being defence, foreign and macro-economic policy would be a good move with GB representing the 4 nations at the UN, EU, G8 and Commonwealth and everything else devolved. The individual nations would have control of indirect taxation having the not inconsiderable flexibility to set VAT rates, England would get her parliament and we could all move forward.
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# 24 benagyerek
I worship at the altar of your superior knowledge of global economics.
There a four people that I can say with a clear heart that I regard with the deepest of distain: Taxmen, Bankers, Insurance agents and Taxmen! I think of them as thieves who should be strung up by the neck until they can think of a more worthwhile job to do. Apart from that I'm sure that most of them a decent people.
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# 33 Threnodio
If all posts that have gone off topic were to be moderated then we would not have the joy of reading most of our Alice's posts. Heaven forbid that this ever happens.
You are right about the disappearance of the Labour party. I would like to say that it would be sorely missed but my mother brought me up not to tell lies.
I think you have missed what I was trying to say about the oil in Scotland. Even if the boom is over the revenues would still flow and that would put us on par with Norway. Check out Norway's economy. I'm always frightened of putting in links as mine tend to get moderated. I haven't sussed out what I'm doing wrong yet.
The point about the other oil fields being too expensive to drill will, in the fullness of time, be economical when the cost of oil rises and stays there. So, there is still plenty of oil for us Scots to take the revenue from.
You said: 'Barnett, imperfect though it is, plays its part and its removal in the event of Scottish independence would force Scotland to be come a high tax economy with all the disincentives associated.'
Where are you getting your figures from? What makes you think that Scotland will be a high tax society? Don't you think that we understand the benefits of inward investment? Have a look at the amount of economists that Scotland has produced and the effect they have had on the world. Try not to fall for the Unionist propaganda that has been bandied around these last couple of years since the SNP took control of the Scottish parliament. Remember that it is in the interests of the Unionists and the Labour party to tell the Scots how dependent that we are on the Union.
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Take a step back and look at europe as a whole and not the the EU and you will see that we have nothing in common with them language and cultural differences way of life.Whats EU imigration brought to the British soil the loss of our fishing fleet, self goverment, strain on public services , million spent on transalting documents over to various european langauges. If we left we would save billions on the waste we have to pay for being in such a crap club and we could better use the money paying our debt off.
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#35 - gedguy2
Again you are right. Since I am not a unionist, I am hardly likely to fall for their propaganda. Neither would I belittle the ability of the canny Scots to attractive inward investment. You may even be right about oil. While the volume is no longer what it was, the quality for making high grade lubricants remains constant. I think what would worry me is an over dependence on a single factor to fuel economic growth. There is no reason, for instance, why industrial processes which are more portable such as high end technologies, consumer goods manufacturing and so on cannot do just as well elsewhere in the UK as in Scotland. Being competitive is not cheap.
In the service sector, the Westminster element in the bailout of HBOS will have sent shivers down some spines, RBOS has come in for a caning and much of the rest of the sector (Scottish Widows for example) is in the Lloyds TSB stable. (Which, by the way is a Scottish registered company lest anyone should forget).
I freely confess that I am playing devil's advocate here. I am quite confident that, should you chose to go it alone, you stand a very good chance of making it work. I would not wish it otherwise. I would simply caution that the competition among smaller economies in the EU for what will be limited investment for some time to come is going to be fierce. Many of those in the east and the Baltics have more competitive labour rates and plentiful reasonably priced facilities. It is not all going to be plain sailing.
Regarding posting hyperlinks, have a look at Ed Inglehart's guide HERE. Links which contain special characters such as dollar and pound signs or hashes will be moded out automatically because it mistakes them for html mark up but it works most of the time.
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# 36 jaws1912
'we have nothing in common with them language and cultural differences way of life.'
Correct me if I am wrong here but I was under the impression that the English language was a Germanic language liberally sprinkled with the latin languages. As to 'our' culture being different, I thought that our culture was wiped out by the Romans centuries ago and then was infected with the Germanic/Nordic culture that has survived for the last 1500 years.
I would also like to point out to you that the majority of our trading is done with this 'drab club'. How is that going to affect us if we withdraw from that? Are you saying that all who are not indigenous to these isles will have to return home if the UK withdrew from the EU? Remember that this would also apply to the English who are not the indigenous peoples of these isles. Hmm, maybe you have a point there.
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# 37 Threnodio
OMG! Your link looks like Chinese to me. But I shall endeavour to persevere.
You do make a good point on labour costs but that also applies to the big countries too. As you may, or may not know, that Scotland has a history of invention and I am sure that such a small country of just over 5 million will be able to look after itself, whether or not we have oil.
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Jaws is back with his hyper-nationalist rhetoric... oh dear.
I have more in common with my friends in France, Denmark, Luxembourg, Turkey, Australia, Germany, Holland (sorry: The Netherlands), Belgium, Spain, Finland and Ireland than with you.
Our language has, by and large a common root seen as how English is; let's face it, a Scandinavian Latino-German with additional French.
Public services are a mess because they have been privatised, had massive underinvestment, and started out (as with the railways) as the 'cheap but dangerous' option. The UK's demographic explosion is not down to immigration only.
The "millions saved" would probably be used propping up the economy when suddenly thousands of people lose their jobs (translators and printers for example). The UK doesn't produce anything any more, so would you ban imports too? I don't think my parents could do without their tea...
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# 40 G-in-Belgium
Well said.
I couldn't possibly do without my tea, but don't tell the Indians or we may have to invade them again.
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#38. gedguy2 wrote:I thought that our culture was wiped out by the Romans centuries ago and then was infected with the Germanic/Nordic culture that has survived for the last 1500 years.
Pre-Roman British people were European as well (where else are they suppose to come from?)
#27. MarcusAureliusII wrote:
Doesn't anyone have a memory that lasts more than five minutes any more?
Indeed the world is heading towards a deep recession (perhaps even a depression) and everyone is optimistic about it. As for the media I guess they're preoccupied at the moment with that popular reality show called the 'US election' ;)
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Hi Mark, I have to say the remarks about everyone flocking to join the EU surprised me.
Ambitious politicians may be flocking but I see scant regard for the EU comming from elsewhere.
Appart from 'politician talk' (spin in other words)
The simplest way to find out if we all want to flock to the EU is vote.
You remember, the vote we were told we were to have?
Personally I do not want to flock anywhere. The EU is ok, only for politicians.
(From I heard the scientist refer to crowds of people as flocks I can not get it out of my mind.)
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#32 addendum
The north sea drainage proposal was published in Modern Mechanix and Inventions p 169 (Sep, 1930) - North Sea Drainage Project to Increase Area of Europe. The front page of the magazine apparently featured a flying submarine!
(Haven't found much more out about the idea yet.)
I did come across a (German) scheme of 1929 to dam the Mediterranean and a second part to dam the Congo river pushing its water north into a massive lake in Chad and then watering the Sahara and onwards to the Mediterranean. (Herman Sörgel’s Atlantropa Project, later Panropa)
Both are perhaps modern hoaxes!
But you have to admire the optimism of the late 1920's, but recall that this was at a time when the World felt everything was possible - to come to the crashing and juddering halt of the Wall Street Crash!
PS SuffolkBoy2 your little string of islands is almost insignificant when compared to the magnitude of these earlier proposals - remember this is at a time just 15 years after the completion of the Panama Canal.
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re gedguy2
the whole eu project as really not got british voters backing. edward heath sold the common market to the britrsh with lies and all along he knew what it intailed. We dont have much in common with people in the eu apart from Ireland we have more in common with the usa similar culture and language is the same.There will never be full intergration cause no matter what the EU is doing behind closed doors nad trying to kill off national identity , it will bounce back cause there is no common culture or language.
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The euro is now cracking mainly due to the greed of the power grabbers in brussells , next topic mark " who will be the first to leave it "
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# 42 Ticape
Pre Roman British culture was Celtic and not Anglo-Saxon. Yes you are right that they were European but the genes point to a region around Northern and Western Spain not Germany. Now, just because the culture was Celtic does not mean that the genes were. It is probable that the Celtic culture travelled to the British isles but not the genes. Well not enough to make any great difference. Just because we find an abundance of celtic artifacts and design does not make the indiginous population Celtic. Even though we, non English, like to think that. I'll come back to that in a second. If archeologists had to dig in our rubbish pits in a few centuries time they would almost certainly come to the conclusion that the people of the British Isles were of Japanese descent after the 1950s. The profusion of Japanese goods after that time swamped the British and world markets but did not mean that they had any real genetic effect on the population.
Going back to the Celtic point. To those that watch British TV or read British writings, be it papers, magazines or books, will notice that the historians and archeologists are reluctant to use the term Celtic to describe the indiginous population of the British isles. They will happily use the term Roman, Anglo-Saxon, Jute, Friessen, Viking, Norman or anything else that comes to mind, but not Celtic, even though there is an abundance of Celtic culture here.
Going back a little further, pre Celtic, we have a culture called the beaker culture which was not only in the British isles but streched from Poland to Belgium. However, again the genes do not necessarily point to genes from Northern Europe.
If you want to take history back further then we all came from Africa. Just a little point of interest that you may not be aware of, but it seems that there were African genes in Britain before there were any Anglo-Saxon genes. It is likely that they came over with the Romans.
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genes ??? what are the genes in the EU? to force its undemocratic ways on us i wonder were the EUs genes can be traced back to i could have a guess soviet union or the nazi party before that napolean , the list of its relations keeps going on and on.
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Car EU plates goverment to change the number platge rules lets get rid of the eu flags from our cars
Some number plates are now appearing with a symbol in a blue section on the left-hand edge of the plate. Often it's the circle of yellow stars symbol of the controversial political project called the European Union.
These are appearing because the dealers for some car makes have been directed to automatically fit them to new cars. It's also being said by some dealers and car accessory stores that having this style of plate means you don't have to slap a 'GB' sticker on your car if you take it abroad. But this isn't completely accurate.
All you actually need on your plate to dodge the eyesore white sticker are the letters, like 'GB'. Polls show many people have strong objections to the EU and what its yellow stars flag represents. The risk with displaying this symbol is that your number plate could easily be assumed to be a deliberate political gesture in support of the EU. As with any political symbols, that might attract the attention of campaigners with strongly held alternative views
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gedguy2 @47 and Ticape
Boys do not quarrel, you are all Russian.
I don't know where you picked up African genes (thank you dedguy2 for remining me I forgot about this thread), but what you speak is your mummy tongue, slightly distorted by Latin, and whatever 1 mln words you picked up in India and USA and places.
All you need to do, for example for words starting in the Webester's with letter "s", is to kick away that letter "s" - and you get your mother tongue. Many played and had fun with it. From example, take "screw"
no, that's a bad example
or anyway even that will be to "krutit', to rotate.
I'll give you a quick draft what happened (so you can take a break and discuss money again later with renewed vigour).
We all speak Indo-european. The closest to modern Russian and Frisian is Sanscrit (4000 years ago carvings). Sanscritians lived places in India. Then they walked to the left. I don't think they flew BA. They camped and made picnics and stopped over for a century or another. Passed Russia, passed Europe, walked up to the most far-away left-hand corner Britain and stuck.
Nowhere else to go, sea.
That's the whole story.
Only Russia didn't trade with the whole world, but sat quietly in its desolate corner, thus preserving Sanscritian in all its beauty. Amd you talked too much with aliens, cut endings, cut grammar to ease the trade contracts over the border signing, picked up many new words from strangers, that's why arrived at English.
But mummy knows. Mummy remembers Russian "snieg" is "snie" Frisian and Sanscritian, even if you made it snow.
And that Sanscritian "bratar" is my silly younger "bratan" Alexis, brother in your case. Innumerous.
Now you can return back to the shop.
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#49 - jaws1912
I hope you are not suggesting that one's car might be vandalised because of one's perceived political views. That would just be sheer thuggery on the part of people who had lost both the argument and the plot.
Wouldn't it . . . ?
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32. At 08:23am on 04 Nov 2008, John_from_Hendon wrote:
#26. SuffolkBoy2
"In connection with your island mania ..."
I find it very disappointing that you have to describe my ideas as mania, apparently merely because they differ from yours. It is something I have come across many times with "EU"-lovers, which is another indication that we should not allow these people to govern us.
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# 50 WebAliceinwonderland
You are, as always, correct in describing the European languages as indo-European. The Finnish, and therefore the Hungarian, language does not fit comfortably into this. The same can be said for Basque. However, as I mentioned before, just because a culture arrives in a country does not mean the genes do. I speak English, which I find to be a wonderful language in which to express oneself, (I have been told on numerous occasions that Russian too is a wonderful expressive language. Pity about the alphabet, though.) even though it is not, genetically, my language.
However, saying that, I suspect that there may indeed be some Indian genes in me because I love their curries; the hotter the better and, of course, their tea. Not so enamoured with their historical movies as I haven't sussed out how the Indians version of 1970s disco dancing managed to get into the Mahabarat.
Even when I am discussing the different genes in these posts I am a believer in the one world idea, I'm even willing to let the Russians participate as long as they learn to use spices in their drab food. I can't understand why the Russians, while building their empire, never had the common sense to invade a country that uses decent spices.
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I have just watched the two speeches by the President-elect Obama and the defeated candidate McCain.
McCain's speech was one of the most gracious and generous that I have ever witnessed. Even when some Republicans booed when Obama's name was mentioned McCain had the decency to put them in their place. Respect oozed from the pores of this man and even though I wanted Obama to win, I sincerely believe that the Americans have turned down a man who would have made a great president.
As to Obama I also believe that this man will make a great president for he sincerely believes in his ideals and roots but will listen to the needs of those who did not vote for him.
America was in a no-lose situation. Whoever had won would have been a saviour for the troubles that America now sees itself in.
I wish both men the best of luck and also to the USA.
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Alice @ #50
I ahve a 9 month old baby granddaughter who is just learning to speak as she has found her voice.
They describe her as very chatty. Something she gets from her mother - my daughter.
The benefit of being a Grandfather is that, unlike when I was a young father and too close to the action as it were, I am now able to watch my daughter with amazement , talking non-stop to my grand-daughter, and can actually see how and why we talk of "Mother tongues".
Your explanation of how Sanscrit became Anglo-Fresian explains a lot about how human's westwards migrations in the millenium prior to the arrival of Christianity does give flavour to our common roots somewhere in the region of the Tigris-Euphrates basin - sometimes thought of the source of being the idea of the Garden of Eden.
The idea of getting to the western shores of European Continent and stopping because of the Sea is fascinating - every time I try to go and have a picnic in Wales or Cornwall . . . it rains.
I think that if it was me back then - I might have just got the idea of turning around and heading back to the Garden of Eden . . . . a much warmer place and where I could get a suntan and have a picnic in the Sun!
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#52 SuffolkBoy2
I was hoping to lighten the mood with a curious aside from the 1930s relating to your scheme for islands. You even quoted me correctly as saying "island mania" - note the word ISLAND.
I am sorry that your perceptions of other people is so black and white on the matter of the EU. That is your problem not mine and you will need to work that through yourself. It is a pity that this obsession that you have, if you do not like the word mania, seems to blind you to the many and various interesting things going on, and that have gone on, in the world. It does appear that the mention of the word 'mania' so resonates with you that it prevented you from reading the word before it.
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I suppose it is inevitable that the darned EU will crop up in every thread but, to be honest, I think the subject has been talked to death at the moment.
I have left the insanity of "German identity angst" and I come here and there is more insanity! EU marked number plates are an eyesore - really? How interesting.
I actually prefer the EU symbol as it is far better than the letter "GB" in black upon a white background . . . . heaven help us if all UK cars have to have Gordon Brown's initials stamped on the number plates - I object to that on the grounds that that is taking Party Political subliminal messaging far too far!
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#51. threnodio
Re #49 Jaws1912
I join with you to condemn posting #49 from Jaws1912
If you review all of Jaws1912 postings it is apparent that Jaws1912 talks about nothing else but UKIP and his/her hatred for the EU.
I too was very worried about the threatening nature of Jaws1912's posting #49 with regard to direct threat of car vandalism against vehicles with EU stickers and I would call upon Jaws1912 to publicity and unequivocally reject any threat by a posting on this blog.
Free speech is one thing, but that does not mean that anyone is freely able to threaten the person or property of another, or incite such activity, which is in itself quite probably a criminal offence.
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# 57 Menedemus
I couldn't stop laughing at the GB car stickers. I never thought of that.
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# 55 Menedemus
I would have to agree with you about being a grandfather. It is far better than being a father. We get to spoil our grandchildren rotten because we know that we don't have to have the responsibility to teach them manners and morals. That is their parents job. But the best thing is that we can hand them back to their parents when we get fed up of them; bliss.
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#47. gedguy2
I believe we have a simple case of miscommunication, the only thing I wanted to point out is that British people will always be European (both from a cultural and genetic aspect) because that's where they come from before they settled in the British isles.
Anyway this is horribly off topic and we need talk about how the credit crunch will affect the EU.
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"Next", a famous UK High Street clothing and furniture store has announced fallen sales.
I think I might just be able to go and spend some of my saving in the January Sales and pick up some real bargains.
It is probably not enough to revive the UK Economy but enough to get me lots of cuddles from the wife!
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# 62 Menedemus
Crawler ;-)
# 611 Ticape
I'll tell you how the credit crunch is going to effect us at the bottom. We're stuffed again.
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gedguy2 @53
How could we, ever get to spices, with our Sebastopol fleet?!
While you stubbornly continue to block us the way out, which spices?
When in England I discovered in the Sainsbury's small glass ? er? jars? caled chutneys. That they can be combined with cheddar, on top a "buterbrot"? sandwich?
Exported some home, nobody saw them here, funny stuff.
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Gedguy2 ad nauseum
Gedguy...you seem to have escaped from Blether with Brian. This blog is about the European economy and the effects of current developments on the Eurozone and, by connection, the UK economy.
You have a specially devolved weblog dedicated to raging in the Celtic Twilight. Please go back there and rage quietly with your friends while the bigger questions are discussed.
Unless of course you have an appetite for a debate that goes beyond trying to think up snide things to say about Gordon Brown.
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On this website:
'Meanwhile, European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso said the world now needed the EU and US to forge "a new deal" to tackle the continuing global financial crisis and other major issues.'
Hopefully this will not mean the USA supporting the lousy dictatorship called the "EU".
Hopefully the USA will remember that the "EU" has been built up by arrogant anti-democratic liars and that is the enemy of democracy and the enemy of the USA.
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# 65 Anglophone
You are right. I escaped from that blog as I could not stand the viciously rude comments from certain posters who had neither the decency to respect the views of others but conducted a disgraceful campaign of insults against any that stood in their way. There were others there whom I admired because they stood up to those types of people. Decide for yourself which column you belong in.
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# 64 WebAliceinwonderland
Of course we bottled up your Sebastapol fleet in the black sea, if we didn't then you Russians would have invaded India and stolen all the Chutneys instead of us. But I did remember that you tried to get in the back door in the 80's through Afghanistan to steal the chutneys.
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#64, WebAliceinwonderland,
Well we don't block you these days, there are many companies that will export overseas from the UK, although whether your customs will not get too tempted by the exquisite flavours and confiscate them for quality assurance is another matter.
#65, Anglophone,
Quite frankly thinking up snide things to say about Gordon Brown is all he deserves. it is amusing to see all the comments on this thread that say if the UK had been in the Euro all the financial problems would have been lessened, wrong, good old Gordie would still have been there to blow our reserves, screw business, blow our pensions etc etc etc. It is also amusing that I have had many conversations here in Belgium recently where the theme is that the Belgian economy would have been much better now if it had still been the Belgian Franc. The moral is quite simply the grass is never greener the other side, it's simply a different pile of sh*t. So please blame the person responsible for the severe UK problems, Brown as chancellor and now PM has been there for 11 years, need one say more!
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The Euro Zone will go into negative growthbut it will not be as hard hit in the midium term as many other parts of the world.
This is my on hunch:
Eurozone - 0 to -5% 2 year +2 - -3% next 3
U.S.A., Britain, Japan -5 to -10% nexc 5 years
Rest of the world some in between.
To: Alice:
When Russia links up with the rest of Europe of which it has always been a part, then you can have all the spices and anything else - if you can afford them.
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Buzet@69: Do you really know anybody who sincerely believes that Belgium would have been better off with the Belgian franc?!
I live in Belgium myself, and it ought to be clear to anybody that, if Belgium had stuck with the franc, the recent political turbulence (one year under a caretaker government), followed by the banks' shenanigans (Fortis, Dexia, Ethias, ING, KBC...), would have sent the Belgian franc spiralling down like a lead balloon. Iceland would be a garden party compared to it.
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In response to people who think i hate the EU the answer is no, basic principles of the EU are a good idea, but what it is now becoming as gone beyond a joke and the EU as no consent by the british our the people from all the countries within europe.
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WebAliceinwonderland and Gedguy2.
And everybody.Here is a map of the Indo-European family of languages.
Hope is interesting.
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/sq/e/ea/Gjuhet_indo-evropiane.jpg
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# 73 Named-Erion
I searched and searched this tree but, for the life of me, I couldn't find the language that is used by some of the posters in the previous blog about Germany. I couldn't find gibberish anywhere.
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Named-Erion @ 73
It is. Thank you. ;=)
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#71, RCalvo,
I'm afraid I know a fair number of people who regret the passing of the Franc and the transfer of the gold to Frankfurt that was obliged before the introduction of the Euro.
What you have to remember is my comment in #69 that when there are problems you need to look deeper than the obvious cause, and in our case who has been the Finance minister of Belgium for many years. I'm sure that you now understand why he is considered as capable as Brown in creating a far worse crisis than was necessary.
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Thank you (Named-Erion, @ 73) a lovely tree, we all like it I am sure.
In terms of branches.
But in the direction I think it is growing upside down and in zig-zag, kind of, not representing the European linguists' view. (and this is about the only area we have where the whole continent agrees on something) (roughly)
As a person subjected to many a various torture in this respect in the distant past(incl. readings of your awful, awful Beowulf) I happen to have shelves on the subject. Will save you Soviet linguistics' discoveries and er, reproduce the ones of your kin
Somewhere, then, out on the plains of India more than four thousand years ago, began the movement of the language which was to become English. It was to drive west, to the edge of the mainland of Eurasia, west across to England, west again to America.
Proto Indo-European is the mother of us all and Sanskrit is certainly one of the older attested members of the family of languages out of which come all the languages of Europe (save Basque, Estonian, Finnish and Hungarian).
After a close study of Sanskrit which had been in existence since at least 2000 BC in the Vedic hymns
There can be few clearer examples of the spread and flow of language and the interconnection of peoples
Well, it can be of course be that the traffic was in the other direction, from Europe - to India. In which case whatever was in your island 4000 years ago would become Russian and eventually "modern" Sanskrit.
However India seems to all to be more of a likely hothouse, especially that they got equipped with Sanskrit while we had yet not equipped ourselves with anything.
Why Sanskritians became in this gypsy travelling mood westward nobody seems to know. but it is believed their lanaguage travelled with people, not by fax.
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Buzet23 @69
Our Customs are indeed a plague; tested in multiple experiments I have discovered so far the only way to scare them off is to terrorise English cousins by having to send things by the registered mail. Thus leaving a trace and a source of potential troubles.
By normal mail though one can safely entrust them with Jane Austen, Captain Hornblowers' and Arden Shakespeare's. Apparently they find the script too small and are afraid to spoil the eyes.
(Though address books with golden cut they like to keep for themselves.)
gedguy2 @68
Thanks for bottling! Don't wonder then that we spread out for two centuries by land.
With other ports frozen for half a year throughout.
Though I heard we sent a special polar bear brigade to the north equipped with electric radiators to plug in...
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Polish liberal government announced plans to adopt the Euro in four years a couple of months before this whole economic mess burst out (our conservative President is changing his tune all the time). But it's an open question whether Euro is really helpful in this regard. Poland is one of those European countries that are least affected by the crisis, so one could argue that not being in the Eurozone actually helps (some pundints do make that case). One way or the other, there's a will both in Polish government and Polish people to join the Eurozone.
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Because of its sheer size and its being the world's number 2 currency, the Euro zone has withstood the perturbations of the past months far better than individual country currencies such as the British pound or east europeans such as the zloty. Slovakia ia already tied to (and supported by) the Euro. The exchange rate has been rock steady as a result. Poland's zloty first dived and recently partly recovered against the Euro.Over 80% of Poland's trade is in Euroland. Poles, other than the extreme populist ultra conservative nationalist right (Bush supporters), want a fast move to Euros precisely because it is a "safe ship in a storm". I am a Brit living in Waraw. My sons and friends coming over from London constantly complain that the pound sterling is a "junk currency", easily attacked by speculators, good only for when times are good and there is rapid economic growth. Poles, Danes and others are beginning to realise that their currencies are equally vulnerable to attack in an economic crisis. The Slovaks are being quite smug about having made the move to Euro, and the Poles are envious. Personally, having a long memory and remembering the times when the pound sterling was a leading currency (1GBP=2.4USD!) Where is it now??? I just wish that the British would take the opportunity to move to the Euro and submit their economy to "German" financial discipline.......
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Is it just me, or does this chap look the spit of President Merkin Muffley?
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#81
He has aged a bit but then Dr Strangelove was 1964!
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Re post 80, agree in the last 12 months the pound has gone down against the dollar from $2.11 to $1.58.
However in the same period of time the euro has gone down against the dollar from $1.60 to $1.27. In percentage terms this is similar to the fall in sterling, simple reason for that was the dollar was undervalued 12 months ago. I know you say you remeber when the pound bought $2.40, I can remember in more recent times than that the pound only bought $1.10. That is the thing about currencies they go up and down.
Re the pound versus the euro, 12 months ago the pound bought 1.43 euros. Prior to the start of thos most recent turbulence, in September it was 1.21 euros. The latest is 1.24 euros. If you wished to argue some thing you could say that in the most recent past there has been a flight to the dollar from both euros and pounds and a much smaller flight from euros to the pound. Although you would be technically correct again, in the life span of a currency, this is only a snap shot. The real test will be in where they are in 12 months time.
Some still do not appear to understand the seriousness of the situation and if any major currency does go down no one will walk away unnaffected by it.
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The recession is just begiining and we are hearing some on these boards clamour to that we must join the Euro.
These posters are ignoring the fact that the recession will hit Euroland just as hard as anyone, and very hard indeed for some Eurozone members. Even before the recession, Euroland had higher unemployment than the UK. Large economies like Italy were in trouble before the recession. A one size fits all interest and common exchange rate will hit some members of Euroland very hard indeed.
The question is whether the Eurozone can survive the coming recession, given the divergent nature of the economies that make up Euroland.
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WebAliceinwonderland
There is only 9 main languages in the tree,the others are deviations.I am not an expert in liguistics,but this are basic knowledge for people interested in European languages.
English is a branch of the Germanic language,and Germanic a basic Indo-European language wich has in common with the other 8 Languages only the roots of the Language which are proto-Indo-European.
You seem to be sugesting that other languages come from Sanskrit,and let me tell you that the fact that Sankrist is one of the oldest languages ofthe Indo-European family it does not mean that other languages come from Sanskrit ,as i said Sanskrit is only one of the 9 basic languages,and the fact that we can today prove that one language is older then another by age of writing and arceological evidence does not nessesarily mean that language was spoken earlier among people then the other languages.Many ancient languages have come to be writen down very late in history but that does not mean they are not ancient spoken languages.
This 9 languages have developed independently over the course of centuries,and some of them hold more proto-indo-european elements then the others for many factors,for example the Sanskrit was holding to the same area in the indian sub-continent and the populations there were hardly influenced by other cultures and language for very long time,therefore maintaining elements of proto-indo-european,while languages such as Gemanic have come frequently under influences of non-indoeuropean languages,moving even further from the roots of the language.
And you might be right about the movement having been once from west to east,there is alot of credible evidence and theories that sugest this,Those Germanic tribes that came from the east might actually have been coming back home.Campaigns of Alex the Great might actually have been not the first one that the west was taking towards the east.
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Agree. I simply wanted to point out that modern Russian holds more Sanskrit roots than Frisian, or anyone else around here.
For some reason. May be like you wrote, we were alsothe least mobile. May be not.
It may be that the roots we hold are not Sanskrit roots at all, but proto-Indo-european roots.
Who knows honestly who was first, the hen or the egg. I mean, is Sanskrit a branch in "proto-indo-european" or the base of it?
All is known about Sanskrit for sure it is the oldest recorded in the area.
But was it a baby or a parent? May be a baby, as you wrote, and as the tree shows.
Authors like David Chrystal, Melvyn Bragg, though, looking at English-Sanskrit connections, clearly make English a baby of Sanskrit.
But in the tree you quoted, English and Sanskrit, however, are positioned on different branches.
Chrystal and Bragg are more careful, it seems, and avoid drawing trees where they can :-)
Russian linquists also connect Russian and Sanskrit, classic view, and very few volunteers to dispute (academy of science will eat one such debunker alive).
But these all are patch glances, how it was all combined together in reality, guess work.
I also find interesting appearing ideas about movement from West to East, opposing the classic views.
Luckily archaeology doesn't care a fig about linguistics' books, and simply does its business, as well as other sciencies.
For example, in the Hermitage museum there is a carpet. I got to know only because encountered a person from England arrived with one mission - to look at the carpet.
(Now, I was at a loss where to find it in the Hermitage. Normal tourists are supposed to want Leonardo-s and expressionists. We were looking for that damn carpet for 2 hours.) Carpet as carpet; 3x2 approx., red, wool, some hunting scenes embroidered? carpeted? on the perimeter stripe.
All the fuss was because it is the oldest existing carpet in the world, 4.5 thousand years. found in a village underground - 8 metres below the surface or something, hell knows where in Siberia, up North in perma-frost. Either we were digging another oil hole or something, and found a whole house underground! wooden beams of the house also on display.
absolutely nothing in Sanskritian written there. nothing written at all, in fact. only big things survived the time. however the carpet signals someone lived there and very well. the carpet, for that matter, is better than the ones I see in the shops now!
A baby in the proto-indo-european family.
May be like you wrote - we were the least mobile in the area.
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