Russians moving out
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VARIANI: The Russian checkpoint at Variani, which has been here six weeks, has now been dismantled and the Russians have gone. I've just seen a convoy of three lorries, three tanks and an armoured vehicle roll out. As soon as they were gone the Georgians came in. One man and his small boy put a Georgian flag up on the post where they had been. And now Georgian troops are waiting in four pick-up trucks to follow them.
The real question here is not does this meet the terms of the European Union's ceasefire to get rid of these checkpoints by Friday - it clearly does - but how far will the Russians actually withdraw? How far they will go back? Clearly they intend to stay in South Ossetia and the EU will have to decide whether that breaches or meets the terms of their ceasefire.
I’m Mark Mardell, the BBC's North America editor. These are my reflections on American politics, some thoughts on being a Brit living in the USA, and who knows what else? My 
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Alice where are you Mark wants to know how far the Russians will actually withdraw?
I guess to the probably entrenched boarders of South Ossetia.
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Judging from recent events, it is apparent, no, it is obvious; that the EU could not organise a train wreck. Thus I fail to see why the Russians should pay heed to any edicts from the stumbling and incompetent group of twenty seven countries that comprise the EU.
If the Russians pull out of Georgia completely, I would venture that it is a courtesy and not because they feel they ought.
Georgia, with its tie chewing leader (who has lost the plot), is being egged on by those in the west who think it wise to pull the tail of the Russian bear; Russia will do as it sees fit, with only glancing interest in what Europe as a group espouses as to what are the rules.
The EU mission to Georgia has about as much bite and power as four teenagers out cruising in Malibu in daddy's Hummer, all image and no substance.
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Mark,
I think I can answer your question, "how far will the Russians actually withdraw?"
That will be no further that they want to go. They have tested the EU, NATO and the US resolve, found it lacking and will just play the game as far as they can without seeming to be in non-compliance with the Sarkozy Peace Plan. Time is entirely upon their side.
The fact that the Peace Plan required the troops to retire to the pre-conflict ante positions has basically been kicked into the long grass by the Russian who are going to keep 7000 troops in the two break-away enclaves and this positioning will become de facto accepted by the EU.
Sooner or later there will be a regime change in Georgia and the conflict with Russia seem like a bad dream of the Georgians - but to be honest, if I were Georgian, I would trust the Russians now more than I would the EU - the EU have basically given Georgia up for the Russians to "grabatise" when they feel like it.
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oj Mark Mardell is there ! in person, alive!
Mark, take care, and all, we all wish you good luck!
I wish I could press some buttons now to have Mark enter South Osetia and even better Abhasia! but alas no connections in ground forces. The only way for him to get to these places is get equipped with a Russian visa (could have been done in London only) and then enter South Osetia from another side - from Russian Vladikavkaz, through the tunnel in the mountain. No one arriving with press accreditation from the enemy side, from Tbilisi, I am afraid will be able to make it, and Mark flew down to Tbilisi, no doubt.
At that, he can't fly Tbilisi-Vladikavkaz direct even if he has the Russian visa, will have to make a round-about via Frankfurt or something.
WhiteEnglishProud, yes, I need to look up some Russian news and sources urgently. Spent a month on BBC! Don't know anything!
I wish with all my heart we do retreat on time, only 2 days left. After all, this is all "upon honest merchant word" arrangement, and it is damn better to have a word! otherwise no one will do business with you any longer. there was this notion in Russia before - "slovo kupecheskoe", multi-million deals stroke btw merchants without papers, upon the word. with small affairs they'd write a contract. with big sums - upon the word!!! was considered more break-neck, classy and cool.
So Mark may wish to enquire now, of the Russian troops-to-leave, how ab/Kak naschyot "slovo kupecheskoye" ?
or the Soviet youngsters equivalent -"Tchestnoye pionerskoye?" (you really mean it?) (do you give your honest pioneer's word?) (pioneers were scouts' organisations here, making fires, baking potatoes, barbecues, and all that survival in the wild jazz). As min this ought to help him strike mutual understanding.
As far as they'd retreat, yes, into the South Osetia and lock up in there.
When Rus. diplomatics' corps, in charge of comms with foreign media, was asked what for do you need SO independence, he began "The right for self-determination of these peoples bla bla bla" all foreign media got long faces and got out of the conference room within 20 minutes.
When Rus. commander Nogovitsyn was asked the same question by the foreign media he said "Why? Don't you see it? Before I was limited by those damn peacekeeping agreements of 1992, not more than 860 people, garrison armed with light rifles, etc. etc. Blue berets! See how Georgia blasted them in one go! A joke!
Now, when they announce independence - why, they'd become independent countries. That's another status. And an independent country can strike a deal with Russia officially, for the mutual military support, an inter-country agreement. By that agreement - absolutely legally - I can keep there normal army, no silly peacekeepers, and with such armamament as I find proper, tanks - not rifles, no Saakashvili will ever dare to attack SO and Abkhasia again ! what can peacekeepers do there? with locals so well minded to kill each other! peacekeepers! ugh. "
- this answer foreign media, accredited to Moscow, as I've noticed watching that press-briefing, found much more honest to the point and direct.
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I'm still on the fence about this whole episode.
My original thought's were Russia was trying to disrupt the oil and gas pipeline near the caspian sea but they seem to have left them alone.
If Georgia attacked first and Russia just over responed because I didn't come up against as much resistance as it expected then maybe a mountains been made from a mole hill.
There have been genocide claims from both side's.
I beleive in people having the right to decide who they are. I choose to be English even though I'm told its not my legal status.
There fore If SO doesn't want to be part of Georgia then that is there right.
Although i am concerned over the removal of ethnic Georgian who lived there.
Thats like if there was devolution in the UK cucking all the English out of Scotland.(mind you i could see them doing that.)
All in all
We need to decide whether SO is now considered a Country. At the minute its not but who are we to opose our own ideal of self determination.
It seems to me that in the West we follow Democratic rules when we feel like it but Cry fowl when anyone else does the same.
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#2 - bootsola
#3 - Menedemus
#4 - WebAliceinwonderland
Greetings!
I have just watched an extended interview with Sergei Lavrov, the Russian Foreign Minister. He states that Russia intends fully to comply with the withdrawal arrangements, that they are entirely satisfied with the monitoring arrangements that have been put in place by the EU and that they 'completely trust' the EU team to perform the task.
Following Mark's blog over a long period, I have come to the conclusion that there are some posters who will seize on any opportunity that the EU cannot run a booze up in a brewery and that Russia will do exactly what it wants, when it wants, where it wants and there is nothing anyone can do about it. These are entrenched attitudes arising for the most part from prejudice.
bootsola - "EU could not organise a train wreck". This simply is not true. There is a great deal that is wrong with the EU. It is over bureaucratic, there is a democratic deficit in it's structure and recent events have suggested that the qualities of many of it's lead players leave something to be desired. If you want to input into this, it helps to identify the problems and address them properly. To simply write off the EU as incompetent and irrelevant is total nonsense.
Menedemus - I posted some time back that I thought the Russians feared that they had overstepped the mark in Georgia and were engaged in a damage limitation exercise. As of this morning, all sides are agreeing - including the Russians - that because of their power of veto, the UN was not an appropriate organisation to undertake the monitoring and NATO was unacceptable because of Georgia's ambitions to join. This really only left Europe operating separately from the non-European NATO members - in other words the EU. If you are suggesting the Sarkozy formula is flawed and gives the Russians too much leeway, I would tend to agree but, given that everyone has signed up to it, I personally see no reason why it should not be respected. Indications are that the Russians are indeed willing to play ball.
Alice - since you are now an honorary American and an honorary Brit and since everyone has lovingly embraced the word, I propose to petition the Oxford English dictionary to formally incorporate the word 'grabatise' into the English language. I shall also suggest that 'grabatize' be incorporated by Websters, thus ensuring ongoing and enhanced friction between us. I will initiate this process as soon as someone tells me what the hell it means.
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Hello Mark!
I hope the Russians get you. You can tell them all of your pro-yankee neo-con views about how Georgia was "right" to have launched a rocket attack on the civilian population of S Ossetia.
I'm sure they'll give you a sympathetic hearing - NOT!!
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To Menedemus #3
to have it nice and clean, to honour Sarkozy's Peace plan to pre ante something positions, I mean, 7000 Russian troops ought to withdarw from S. Osetia through the tunnel in the mountains into Russia. For a day. For an hour. For 3 days. For something whatever.
Make a u-turn, and go through the tunnel back, to re-appear in Tshinvali again, this time on the basis of the deal signed between Russia and South Osetia a month ago, where they've asked us ab. military support and keeping Russian bases there to protect them from Georgia.
But these would be childish tricks I guess, Kremlin not going to play these games, all understand all without words.
However I'd think if there was another man in power in Georgia, not so impulsive president Saakashvili, this get out -return back play might have been played. As the matters stand Kremlin I think is scared that Saakashvili can't be granted even with 3 days in Osetia without Russian troops - will attempt a second take-over!
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Question: If it's OK for Kosovo to declare independence why is it not OK for South Ossetia to do the same?
Am I wrong to infer double standards being applied?
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2. bootsola:
"The EU mission to Georgia has about as much bite and power as four teenagers out cruising in Malibu in daddy's Hummer, all image and no substance."
They're an unarmed mixed group of civilians and cops and you seem to misunderstand their remit.
They're not "peacekeepers", they're "observers". And that's all they'll do - OBSERVE (and report).
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SO and AB are a side show, a preliminary warm up. Ukraine is the main event. The Russians know exactly what they are doing...even if we don't. We react exactly as they expect us to. Experienced chess players calculate many moves ahead, beginners react instinctively to the most recent move made by the other side. That is why beginners always lose. Russia has the upper hand. All the aces and trump cards. If it withdraws behind a line, that is what it had in mind all along anyway. The next move is consolidation of power in the territory it just won.
Near the end of last night's debate, in response to a question McCain and Obama tried to outdo each other as to who would be tougher on Russia. Personally I wouldn't mind fighting Russia to the last European....figuratively speaking of course. Except for horrible miscalculation or accident, there will be no direct shooting war. The best US strategy...make Georgia and Ukraine members of NATO immediately and send lots of arms to them as well as an army of "technical assistants." Bombard Ukraine with Euroculture. Force the Russophiles in Ukrainian schools to learn Ukranian and English. Also consolidate power in central Asia and ratchet up the pressure on Iran to the max. The consequence will be a cutback in oil and gas to Western Europe this winter. Not to worry, they can burn all those old copies of the EU Constitution and Lisbon treaty that were printed to convince their hapless populations to adopt them to keep warm for a long time. Finally a useful function for them to perform.
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A gentle reminder:
http://www.america.gov/st/texttrans-english/2008/September/20080902124147xjsnommis0.8528101.html
"THE WHITE HOUSE
September 1, 2008
STATEMENT BY THE PRESS SECRETARY
...
We applaud the EU's commitment to send an EU mission to Georgia, and encourage EU member states to deploy monitors as quickly as possible; ... "
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As to the nature of the blue berets in the ex "buffer zones", I hate to be cynical and cast a sad -der note into present happiness shared in the blog by all sides,
but the nature of these nice people in the sunny pictures (I do like how the Brits look there) (very classy) (oj oj oj un-armed)
is to be a live shield. Btw Saakashvili and Tshinvali. Kremlin did the swap with Sarkozy, that we take army out of georgia but you place live Europeans there the more the better. With only one aim in mind, I am afraid - that is Saaka won't dare to strike again having europeans between him and S. Osetia. Indeed, if he does - I mean he is then not only once gone mad, would be twice, confirmed. If Saakashvili undertakes the 2nd attempt to take his run-away province by steel and fire - killing berets in the action un-escapably - he's not with EU, not with Russia.
With who he is there then? With USA?
Being between EU and Russia geographically, I mean, there is Turkey there as well, before EU starts, and something else? but didn't Saakashvili want to become EU?
I mean, Kremlin hopes Saakashvili won't be killing live Europeans standing as a shield there. If not our tanks - well, then it's live people. Kind of cynical approach, but that what it is.
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MAII
I agree that Russia are playing a tactical game for Ukraine especially the Crimean region.
Giving them almost exclusive control of the Black sea ports no that AB has declared itself independant.
Doesn't re-eduction sound a bit of an extreme solution somet5hing Hitler or Stalin would have tried.
A large proportion of the population are not just Russophiles but ethnicaly Russian.
National Borders in this area have changed so fequently in History that who's to say that the borders are currently in the right place.
Self-determination has long been used to resolve issue's like this unfortunately this time that won't work for the West as the majority of people in this area want to be Russian.
So suddenly its irrelavent
We work to the rules we make when it suits us and disregard them when it doesn't.
Another good example of this is the interferance of Governments in the Ecconomic sector, we pride ourselves on being Capitalist nations but forget the rules of Capitalism when the Gov's think it suits us.
(really there just looking after there political backers, If the rich lose all there money whos going to pay for the election campaign's)
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#11 - MarcusAureliusII
Absolutely right. The big one is Ukraine and possibly, if the thaw in Minsk continues, Belorussia. There is no mileage in it for the Russians to upset the applecart for the sake of Georgia. Whether they actually have such ambitions is another question but they have placed themselves beautifully if they do.
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Nanotchka, while killing live Europeans is a price I'm more than willing to pay, I think Saaka has a lost cause for the moment in SO and AB. He'd do far better to join NATO and bide his time. For the time being, SO and AB are Russian real estate.
Does he want to be in the EU? Everyone who is poor wants to be in the EU. How would Hungary pay for new roads and bridges if it was not in the EU? How would Romania pay to clean up all those old Soviet era toxic waste dumps if it was not in the EU? Only half the British population doesn't want to be in the EU. But they have nothing to say about it, Gordo has seen to that. Even his rubber stamp Parliament won't get a shot at saying no to whatever replaces Lisbon.
A tunnel through a mountain makes a very attractive target for terrorists to bomb. Just so long as they are our terrorists. But we never call them terrorists, our terrorists are all freedom fighters. Everyone's is. Maybe painting a sign inside the center of the tunnel with another cartoon about the prophet Mohammed or Allah by some Danish journalist would attract attention. Even a rumor could be good enough. Timing is important. Would be best to have the suicide bomber induced cave-in when there is a large armed convoy in it. We did it for Afghanistan in the 1980s we could do it again.
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As a matter of interest, does anyone know what Russia is going to seek from Iceland for their refinancing loan?
Use of Iceland for Airstrip and Port Facilities for their big bombers and North Atlantic Fleet?
One wonders if that may be of more strategic interest/importance to Europe and the USA than the Ukraine or that part of the world.
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Marcus - "How would Hungary pay for new roads and bridges if it was not in the EU?"
I am not rising to it. Hungary's net benefit at 24 billion is exactly equal to Netherlands net contribution. That's quits. Go and wind up the other 25 members
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Marcus.
"Nanotchka, while killing live Europeans is a price I'm more than willing to pay".
It's also a lot easier. Have you ever tried killing a dead European?
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17#
Maybe the Russians will want to site Interceptor missles there
This should worry us more, although I understood the offer had been withdrawn
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threnodio, I'd try killing dead European but I don't think they'd get any deader. Could anyone be any deader than Gordon Brown? He's so gray he'd make the bleakest day look sunny by comparison. It would just be a waste of perfectly good bullets to try. Besides, it's far crueler and more fun to let those zombies keep walking around thinking the are still alive.
OK, the Netherlands is sending 24 billion Euros to Hungary. How much will Britain send to Ukraine? At least Poland had plumbers to trade. What has Ukraine got, shoemakers? Nuclear Power Plant operators? :-)
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#21 - MarcusAureliusII
I can't argue with any of that :-)
#17 - Menedemus
I do think that it was probably a question of making friends and influencing people while also coming up with a nice little earner. I believe that events have now overtaken you and the white charger is being ridden by Sweden now.
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At 2:25pm on 08 Oct 2008, greypolyglot wrote:
Question: If it's OK for Kosovo to declare independence why is it not OK for South Ossetia to do the same?
Should EU recognize this 'government' of the independent republic South Ossetia?
Prime Minister - Russian bureaucrat Yuri Morozov
minister of Defense - russian general Vasilii Lynev,
head of the Security Council - russian general Anatoly Barankevich,
head of security service - FSB general Anatoly Baranov.
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The European Union has proved itself to be impotent in this response to Russian aggression. Putin knew there would be little or no retaliation and it serves his purpose to be seen as responding to Sarkosky's bended knee plea as being conciliatory.
By the way, does anyone NOT believe Putin is trying to re-create the old Russia and fancies himself as Prime Minister to a resurrected Tsar of Central Europe and the East? He is a very dangerous - almost paranoid - man and one who is going to need careful watching.
The west should be prepared for more of Russia's adventures testing the willingness of the west to stand against these machinations. I fear the next major conflict will come from Putin's miscalculations about our firmness and resolve.
We should show him now that we have such resolve so no such misunderstanding is possible.
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21. MarcusAureliusII:
"I'd try killing dead European "
Let's just hope that MA2's compatriots don't feel the same and go for a variant of Operation Northwoods then!
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23. alexius_3:
At 2:25pm on 08 Oct 2008, greypolyglot wrote:
" 'government' of the independent republic South Ossetia?
Prime Minister - Russian bureaucrat Yuri Morozov
minister of Defense - russian general Vasilii Lynev,
head of the Security Council - russian general Anatoly Barankevich,
head of security service - FSB general Anatoly Baranov."
OK that does look like a fairly convincing argument but could you please clarify for me whether you mean that these people have been recently "imported" from Russia or whether they are South Ossetians who happen to ethnic Russians.
And can you tell us what the percentages are of the various ethnic groups in South Ossetia?
I genuinely don't know so please don't get angry with the questions. I would like to learn and understand.
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#23 - alexius_3
Suggesting what? That Russia are very bad at nation building, or rather good at it?
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#11 MAII, ab imposing Ukrainian onto Russophiles in Ukraine.
First of all don't worry it is imposed.
90% of school subjects are taught in Ukrainian, for years, except for music and drawing I think. This is exactly one of the big reasons why we quarrel with Ukraine non-stop, because they impose Ukrainian on native Russians in half the country.
This Ukranisation is a constant base for jokes, because, for the beginning - Ukr. teachers don't know Ukrainian enough to teach children in Ukr. They are trying to, but always slide back to Russian.
When president Youshenko looses temper he switches onto Russian automatically - and then his media is pestering him for weeks that he doesn't know Ukrainian.
The lady with the scythe, Timoshenko, also hardly manages public speeches in Ukr.
And sure when Youshenko and Timoshenko quarrel - you hear only Russian. They can't think and reply to each other in Ukr quick enough, so they resort to the main language.
However Ukraine tries hard, and recently has translated its Ukrainian heroic epic into Ukrainian, because sadly to say main pieces of their writers were written in Russian, they simply didn't feel oppressed back then and saw no reason to write in the minor dialect so much lacking words.
All the films Ukraine buys from Russia they re-do in Ukrainian, which created a huge black market because Ukrainians don't want to watch movies in Ukrainian. TV is all Ukr. there and radio. Russians can speak Russian only to each other, and this is 10 years minimum. As this includes nearly half of the country, do you wonder why Ukr. is split? Nobody likes to be supressed and depressed and prohibited the right to speak own tongue.
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#23 Alexius_3, Yes sound all absolutely Russian names.
You know, I feel better knowing this.
Have you seen their natural, own South Osetian president Edward Kokoity?
Mama mia.
I know it is not right to judge people by the looks and speech.
But simply compare him to the Abkhasian one, Bagapsh. The other one seems a nice man.
But while looking at Kokoity, all this time,
I kept thinking who we are actually putting on the throne there. And he will be un-touchable. He looks like the most famous historical names from the area, past and modern - combined!
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26 - greypolyglot
In case alexius does not notice your question, the figures are:
According to the 1989 census, there were:
65,200 (66.2%) Ossetians,
28,700 (29%) Georgians,
2,128 (2.1%) Russians,
871 (1.21%) Armenians,
648 (0.9%) Jews
5,100 (4.8%) Others.
This and other background information at Wikipedia HERE
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Heard also from the opposition media here, that Kokoity fired all own men who stood up against Georgians in the assault. They stood quite a nightmare, resisting Georgians in the city, after Russian garrison was blown up, and put up quite a resisistance. If not for these street fights, where Georgian army stuckfor an extra day, they'd make it up to the tunnel on time, had it blown up and thus plugged the hole into Russia.
Then the Russian troops in Osetia won't be a 30-thousand 58th army, bit a bit of soldiers this, and a scrap of tanks that - all they were able to collect quick in nearby North Osetia, just a tunnel away.
The main army when arrived would meet a stone wall - Great Caucases Range, and no way through. Only to jump on the mountains like mountain goats.
The first thing Kokoity did, on the 12th of August, or even 11th - he sacked the man who organised the resistance. Afraid of the competition, as he is a tsar for the long time in South Osetia, and he was scared people will fire him, after what happened to Tshinvali in his rule.
What a nice, thankful leader.
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greypolyglot wrote:
23. alexius_3:
greypolyglot wrote:
" 'government' of the independent republic South Ossetia?
Prime Minister - Russian bureaucrat Yuri Morozov
minister of Defense - russian general Vasilii Lynev,
head of the Security Council - russian general Anatoly Barankevich,
head of security service - FSB general Anatoly Baranov."
'OK that does look like a fairly convincing argument but could you please clarify for me whether you mean that these people have been recently "imported" from Russia or whether they are South Ossetians who happen to ethnic Russians.
And can you tell us what the percentages are of the various ethnic groups in South Ossetia?'
-------------
Yes Sir,they has been "imported" from Russia:The head of the local KGB in South Ossetia, general Anatoly Baranov, used to head the FSB in the Russian Republic of Mordovia. The South Ossetian "defense minister," general Vasily Lynev, used to be military commissar in Perm Oblast, and the secretary of South Ossetia's Security Council, general Anatoly Barankevich, is a former deputy military commissar of Stavropol Krai.
South Ossetia: Ossetians 65%,Georgians 29%
Abkhazia :Georgians 46%, Abkhaz 18%
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Never been to South Osetia, but a lot in Abkhasia.
Georgians 46%, Abkhaz 18% sounds weird to me.
Can't be all people I rented accommodation from, so many holidays spent there, bought things in the market, hotels, parks, I mean, whenever there - this statistics mean they were hidden Georgians? only pretended they are Abkhasians.
In this case they pretended very well.
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#33 - WebAliceinwonderland
I don't know - pirated software, fake Gucci handbags, black market videos and now - phony Abkhasians. You can't trust anyone these days.
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Mark:
It took Russia only a number of weeks to leave Georgia, following the invasion to a soverign nation..
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One thing's for sure. You will not learn anything about the Caucasus and Ossetia from the BBC or indeed anyone else in Britain. All the journalists seem to get lost and end up in Tibilisi and once there find themselves talking to Saakhasvili. I even saw him in Hard Talk. He contradicted himself so many times and lied so blatantly that that program has become a landmark. Anyone who's got a copy should put it on the Internet without commentary.
What has happened basically is that the Osettians and the Abkhaz have got what they want. The Russians showed that the American dream of a tortuos energy corridor and the militarisation of the area "to safeguard American interests" is a dead duck.
As for Ukraine well it's basically two countries and following the Kosovo precedent t could well become so, de jure. Eastern and Southern Ukraine are as Russian as the Moscow region. Moreover at most only 20% of the whole of Ukraine want Nato ie American bases. And the pro-American president has at the moment only 4% political support. I tend to agree with what the last American ambassador to the Soviet Union said. He declared that he couldn't make a precise forecast of what will happen to the Ukraine but he was sure of one thing , that it's boundaries will change.
Which leaves us with the role of Britain and the EU. The EU, led by France and Germany acted realistically and in line with the wishes of their countrymen . But the two boy David, the English lad and the Jewish one , behaved stupidly , the mice that roared. The Western Europeans, the people as well as the politicians are realising that Russians are fellow Europeans, nearby, and that Russia is a great market, amazingly endowed with resources of all kinds which we could both develop for our mutual benefit. Russians might not have grafitti, hip-hop, reality TV, same sex marriage or much political correctness but we have many things in common.
The Anglo-Saxon model (which indeed was not really Anglo-Saxon but emerged from the"stettele " in Eastern Europe via New York) is probably dead with banks dying or being nationalised everywhere. We can build a new alliance together especially now that the Americans are about to create a media creation, a Christian-Muslim African with no experience, as president. In short I think that the main players in the EU are doing well, insofar as Russia is concerned.
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MAII, 21 "What has Ukraine got, shoe-makers? Nuclear Power Plant Operators?
:-) "
aj jai iay MAII, to have so low opinion of our Ukrainians. On top of indeed being excellent unforgettable nucl. plant operators, mind it they can also shoot very well.
Just years ago they shot down from the Black Sea skies a peaceful plane on the route Israel-Kiev. Trying air defence equipment grabatised from Russia in the divorce.
When they announced they are separate overnight, all that happened to be in Ukraine became Ukrainian overnight.
Incl. all military bases and sky-high piles of various explosives and armament stocked there by Russia.
Just a month ago we watched for 5 days how one of these piles is burning, sending rockets here and there for miles. Ukrainians couldn't approach to put the fire out, so well the place flamed and shot around.
However this was about 1%, and they didn't lose good cheer, because a good part of Ukr. budget is made by selling old Russian stocks abroad. The ship taken by pirates went un-accompanied exactly because its cargo is crap - totally rusty Russian tanks, kept 20 years in the open, sold "as they are".
When Ukraine sells our arms to decent places - they make an effort to up-date them, change this and that, there are 2 factories working on it day and night in Ukraine. But to Africa they sold cheaply, rusty crap.
Otherwise Ukraine has sugar and salt. And grows bread - best climate for wheat in the region.
With sugar it is total nightmare as it appears and disappears as we quarrel with them and make friends again. Salt last spring I was buying 17 kilos, like all, when it got lost again for yet another time.
I think Kremlin is thinking about streamling our sugar delivery. Before Perestroyka we had it from Cuba, to put it short. Not beetroot Ukr. sugar, but another one, forgot the English word.
Now, recently there seemed to be some strong winds in USA and Cuba and all that place.
I watched a lot on TV of Russian humanitarian help arriving by heavy cargo airplanes to Cuba (unlike USA we are not, yet, in the habit of delivering foods to Cuba by warships).
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Menedemus, #17.
Of Iceland heard nil. No Russian passports there. Anyway, they don't need us, they get heated by themselves, by natural hot springs.
Years ago, though, had an overall, of American girls, troops, stationed there. Excellent stuff.
Well, may be it's a general NATO-girl military overall.? All school was jealous with me mad. Wore it to the disco-s in 1990-s!
All we see here Icelandic is jumpers of their sheep. Extraordinary lovely and expensive. 450 dollars.
(Why Scotland won't open a tiny shop here? they also have sheep? no sheep in Russia. no own wool. not a 100 gram. real woolen jumpers, in our climate, sell like hot pies. I have one mohair-wool Scottish scarf. people stop me in the street to ask where I bought this. all the world sells us synthetics. forgot when I saw a real woolen jumper in a store. my last best one gave to the cat to make nest in. myself wear hell knows what.)
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Nanotchka;
having old planes explode must be more fun than fireworks. You never know when a rocket might be headed right at you. There is excitement in real danger. It could be worse. They gave Russia back the nuclear weapons that were there when the USSR broke up. What if they hadn't? Think of how much fun those could have been.
How nice to know they have an export business selling those old tanks. All you need is enough paint and you can work wonders. And who will complain? How do you lodge a complaint that the equipment you were sold was defective when it was illegal for you to get it in the first place? There is no honor among thieves. I'll bet the French wish they'd thought of it first.
When you have sugar and salt, you have two of America's three favorite flavors, the third being fat. The sugar is good for making molasses which can be used to make Russian dark pumpernickel bread. Then some cheese, onions, and me, I like cold beer. That's how we used to eat it when I was a child. Yes my parents let me have beer. Sometimes. How do you lose 17 kilos of salt?
We have to send food to the island of Cuba in warships. It takes a lot of food to feed hungry terrorists in GITMO :-) We're retraining them to take Saint Petersburg. Fair is only fair. You wanted Charleston. Maybe I'll rent a room at the Winter Palace...when they turn it into a hotel.
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Interesting line of thinking going on here. So if Russia was so inclined to annex it's former territories, why wasn't Tbilisi levelled to the ground?
Another issue to ponder: isn't it amazing that none of the STAN's governments display animosity towards Russia and in return are reciprocated? The same with Azerbaijan.
Here's the memo, just in case somebody doesn't get it - "don't hate on me, and I won't beat the living daylights out of you".
It's all about respect.
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This comment was removed because the moderators found it broke the House Rules.
Russia is nowhere near as powerful as they are acting.
Though there was only one way the conflict with Georgia would have gone, as a military risk, it was akin to the US attack on Grenada in 1983 - a vast military task force against a barely armed enemy, there still has been disquiet in the Russian military about aspects of their performance.
Poor command and control on the ground, losing 4 aircraft (including a large TU-22M bomber), when the enemy had little air defence and no real fighter capability.
What if it would have been against a much larger, better armed opponent, like Ukraine?
Remember, after the USSR imploded, their forces had effectively a 15 year 'holiday' in the procurement of new equipment.
Plus much of the forces fell into even less training, very poor disclipline, criminal activity.
Putin has started to turn this around, but this is a very large tanker to turn.
Russian pilots still fly far fewer annual hours than their NATO equivalents, that's as in NATO in peacetime, not counting all the operational deployments of the last years, to Kosovo, Afghanistan - where most NATO air forces have deployed from time to time, never mind the much larger US and UK operations etc.
Missed in all the news of our financial crisis, is that Russia has been hit too.
Sure they could affect the fossil fuel supplies of some EU nations, but they are also reliant on the revenue this provides too.
The Russians have a history of bombast not really backed up by hardware.
Remember how Kruschev used to boast about turning out missiles like sausages.
Well at the time of the Cuban Missile crisis, the US had a 17-1 advantage in deployable nuclear weapons.
Just 4 intercontinental missiles in the USSR. Which needed 24 hrs preparation for launch.
Which is why the USSR put those missiles in Cuba in the first place.
I know a certain paranoid xenophobe on here aches to see a destructive war in Europe, but however bullish Russia may be acting now, they are NOT the USSR, they are not sealed off from the economic life of the rest of the world, as the USSR was.
Which is why it eventually collapsed, not due to Afghanistan and not because of Ronald Reagan either.
It was always going to happen.
The current Russian leadership lived through the end of the USSR.
They won't want to engineer a repeat.
Sure Russia is more assertive now, but who are they aping in this respect?
But not even the much more assertive Bush administration deterred them in Georgia.
Bush knew how very limited his options were here, likewise the Russians know they can only go so far.
A sort of new mutual deterrent?
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threnodio: I'd gladly sign your petition. See here for the meaning of grabatise. I'd like to suggest grabatation in place of grabatisation for the noun, because that would allow the term grabatational pull to describe a chain of successive grabatations, like falling dominoes.
greypolyglot: You would be wrong only in the choice of inference over explicit statement.
alexius_3: Thank you for the information. I didn't know where Mordovia was in Russia: after looking in my atlas, I found that it is halfway between Moscow and Samara.
SONICBOOMER: BAM! (Bankruptcy Assured Mutually ?)
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Jan, BAM! indeed, good one - and true!
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True story. you can go to georgia and visit her and see the trth on your own. And then you will know why some have so much grudge agaist Georgia. [Unsuitable/Broken URL removed by Moderator] [Unsuitable/Broken URL removed by Moderator] [Unsuitable/Broken URL removed by Moderator]
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In response to #42: "Russia is nowhere near as powerful as they are acting."
Russia can still delete USA and UK from political map in 15 mins.
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The reason Crimea is pro-Russian is because it was always Russian until one Ukranian peasant criminal and lackey of Stalin: Khruschev redrew the border and added it to Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic in 1954 right after his Georgian thug friend and pre-revolutionary train robber - Joseph Dzhukashvilli (Stalin) - died in 1953.
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