On the cusp
"The holidays from history have ended," said the Polish Foreign Minister Radowlaw Sikorski, adding that after the Russian invasion of Georgia Nato membership was no longer a cost-free option.
This was a fascinating meeting, just a few steps away from the EU summit in Brussels - a debate organised by the German Marshall Fund on the Georgian war, featuring the Russian ambassador and the Georgian minister for conflict. The clash of interpretation between them was obvious, if interesting.
The Georgian minister, Termuir Yakobashvilli, said that he had been warning of this for ages and, in May, here in Brussels, he had told senior people that the region was on the brink of war.
He said he was told: "Don't mention the W word in this city, it isn't welcome". The Russian Ambassador, Vladimir Chizov, said that it was false that the Russians had planned the action and called it a "peace enforcement operation".
But Mr Sikorski was definitely the most pithy speaker. He's an interesting man, previously close to American neo-cons and one of the original authors of the Polish aspect of the missile scheme when defence minister for the previous Polish government. He's married to the journalist and writer Anne Applebaum. Although he might be too transatlantic for some European tastes, he is also my tip for a future EU high representative.
He said that we had reached a cusp of history and that while everyone wanted to avoid a second Cold War if there was one he had no doubt who would win it: Europe was ten times richer than Russia.
UPDATE, 04:40PM: The British and Polish are trying to beef up a statement on the European Union's relations with Russia. They want talks planned for the 16th of September on a trade agreement called off and today's summit to declare "the union will not take any action to reinforce the relationship with Russia". Certainly, the commission's leader President Barrosso would agree with this line and wants to declare after the meeting that there cannot be business at usual. Others think this too tough.
The summit will announce that the EU is "gravely concerned" by the conflict, and the Russian recognition of the breakaway republics is "unacceptable". It will call for the withdrawal of troops "without delay": although there is an argument about whether to single out the Russians or apply the call to both sides.
I’m Mark Mardell, the BBC's North America editor. These are my reflections on American politics, some thoughts on being a Brit living in the USA, and who knows what else? My 
© MMIX~RS~q~RS~~RS~z~RS~11~RS~)
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Before you tell your brother to remove the mote from his eye, first remove the beam from your own. So said the Bible !!
Perhaps the self-professed deeply religious Tony Blair should tell his successor and his pet poodle, Milliband, that if he wants the Russians to stop messing about with the Georgian minorities, they should first stop supporting the Serbian minorities !!
Mr. Sikorski should also remember one thing - although Europe is 10 times richer than Russia, it is also eyeballs deep in debt and sinking whereas the Russians are flush with cash from the oil revenues !! Furthermore, although the Russians promised that they will NEVER turn off the tap from their gas supply, they NEVER promised *NOT* to jack the price of gas up to the sky !!
Perhaps Brown should muzzle his poodle to stop it from barking at the wrong people at the wrong and most embarrassing times. After all, the great man himself, Sir Winston Churchill, once said, "Jaw, jaw is better than war, war !!"
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I just read Russian President Medvedev's Five Principles on Foreign Policy.
I seen it before in the BBC blogs relating to the Ossetian situation. The Five Principles is a summary of major pro-Russia postings in the BBC blogs.
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In view of Sikorski's comments, I'd feel obliged to repeat my comment from a previous thread:
Georgia is not a European problem. Georgia is not in Europe - and never will be unless the earth's tectonic plates rearrange themselves sometime soon.
For all the armchair warriors wanting to re-ignite the cold war, I'd like to point out 4 things:
1) Russia is not the USSR;
2) Russia 2008 is not Germany 1938;
3) The EU is absolutely impotent: it is a collection of disparate countries with conflicting interests pretending to be the nascent 'US of E'. Furthermore it is being outclassed at every step by better geo-political chess players (the Russians). [Europe may indeed be 10 times richer than Russia, but it is also 10 times less resolute];
and
4) I'm much more worried about the rise of Radical Islamism. A strong Russia - whether our ally or not - will be a powerful bulwark against that evil.
Oh yes, and I don't want to see British troops dying in the Ukrainian steppes or the mountains of the Caucasus for countries "of which we know little" - and the little I do know I don't much care for.
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That's the trouble with Poland it always comes down to money, hence Sikorskis remark about Europes wealth. Well Europe might be wealthy but Poland and alot more are not. So perhaps when talking about this subject better to point out just who is wealthy. Russia doesn't claim to be wealthy, it doesn't have to. Even without it's former satelites it's still the largest country on earth. Hard to swallow for some but a fact. Russia also doesn't need the west it could quite easily manage with trade with countries such as China, India and indeed Iran. It has huge resources yet to be tapped. I would think wise council would be to have dialogue with the bear and not to bait it!
At least Russia got rid of the oligarths who milked the country dry. Never mind they're keeping the likes of London and Tel Aviv wealthy, so I suppose it's a fair balance.
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Europe needs to understand that even though Russia has a lot resources untapped, diversifying is the smartest economical move. Europe right now is just a puppet to Russian politics, due to its over reliance of Russian resources. So instead of taking advice of the previous comments, Europe should enforce Georgian authority and open a new channel to the real untapped resources of Central Asia. In that way Russia can jack up the price or cut off gas all it wants. You need Georgia, Maxskeptic, unless you want to live in fear whether you have angered Russia's arrogance.
Another point I want to make, a lot of western europeans brush off what their eastern side is warning them about russia. Russia doesnt play fair, look at the inconsistencies and the precedent they're setting. Eastern europeans like poland, and the baltics know a lot more of what Russia can do.
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I feel a strange sense of deja vu.
In the 1930s through to the start of the second world war with Germany there were Europeans who thought that the Third Reich was a wonderful development for the Germans.
The introduction of the "People's Car", the 1936 Olympics, Autobahns, food in every German worker's pail, full employment, jungvolk movements with teenagers scrambling through the countryside to be fit and healthy, jungmaichen offering themselves to produce children for the fatherland and so many other benefits of a single party authoritarian state.
Of course, we now know that from 1935 onwards Hitler planned the sequential annexation of Austria, invasion of Czechoslovakia (although he ended up being given Czechoslovakia by the arch appeasers Chamberlain and Deladier!) and the eventual invasion of Poland in 1939. Hitler and the Third Reich never veered from their planned aggressions whilst Europeans fell over themselves to avoid war at all costs even if it meant giving away other countries without their consent or making useless concessions in order to prevent the war that was inevitable as Germany never intended peaceful aggression.
Even in 1939, we had well-meaning but muddle-headed Englishmen offering Ulrich von Hassel, the Third Reich Foreign Minister the opportunity for Germany to have a free hand in Europe if Germany 'allowed' Great Britain a free hand in the rest of the world (so much for perfidious Albion and it's friendship with it's then ally, France!)
Now to this day we have people saying that "... I don't want to see British troops dying in the Ukrainian steppes or the mountains of the Caucasus for countries "of which we know little" - and the little I do know I don't much care for." . . . . . roll back to 1938 and Neville Chamberlain said of Czechoslovakia "How horrible, fantastic it is that we should be digging trenches and trying on gas-masks here because of a quarrel in a far away country between people of whom we know nothing. I am myself a man of peace from the depths of my soul." - a sentiment that led Chamberlain from acquiescence in the Anschluss of Austria to the deliberate surrender of Czechoslovakia to the Third Reich without even consulting the Czechoslovakians.
The people who are falling over themselves to absolve Russia from the aggression that they have unleashed on Georgia for whatever reasons they wish to conjure up is tantamount to accepting that Germany was right to invade Poland in 1939 because the "Polish attacked the Gliewitz Radio Station" - a completely fabricated and pre-planned event.
Russia invaded Georgia within 5 hours of Georgia trying to subdue the insurgents in South Ossetia - a legal act by Georgians albeit ham-fisted.
To mobilise 150 tanks as the Russians did so quickly would also require the mobilisation of approximately 1000 wheeled military vehicles and the Divisions of troops used. This mobilisation could not be done in 5 hours unless the Russians were already prepared to invade Georgia beforehand!
If Europeans do behave as spinelessly as our forefathers did in the 1930s we are giving Russia the green light to dictate the government of Georgia and, if they succeed in doing that, the the Governments of the Ukraine, Finland and the Baltic States will be under threat next.
If we appease Russia because we are lily-livered or too economically dependent upon Russia we might as well give up now and start learning to speak Russian.
Europeans had the guts and fortitude to survive the Second World War and ensure the defeat of Germany.
I question whether Europeans have the same spirit and determination as their grand- and great-grandparents or whether 60 years of "Peace for our time" has led to Europeans becoming cowards and unworthy recipients of the sacrifices made by their forbears.
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We are indeed On The Cusp of History.
This is for reasons not stated here.
The most imprtant is that the United States of America is in the long-winded process of elected a new President who will take office at the beginning of 2009.
Whichever is elected, he will simply be unable for to continue on the confrontational path of the Bush administration because the USA is deeply in debt and stony broke.
United States actions over the last 8 years, if nothing else, has been driving all of Europe closer together including Russia and the E.U.
Long may it continue for the benifit of all Europeans.
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Old-Man-Mike @7
Very laudable sentiments but you are being incredibly naive.
It is Russia that is being confrontational at this time.
If they suceed in making a regime change in Georgia (or eventually decide to occupy the whole of Georgia - as Germany decided to do with Czechoslovakia in 1938/9) they then control all 3 pipelines in that country (One Gas and 2 Petroleum) and effectively have a complete stranglehold on European States that import gas and petroleum.
I for one would rather be friends with the USA than a subject of vassal state of Russia.
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The Economist, Aug. 21, 2008:
Much of the damage was done by the Georgians, says Human Rights Watch (HRW), a monitoring group. Shortly before midnight on August 7th Mr Saakashvili ordered a bomb barrage using Grad multiple-rocket launchers. This lasted through the night. Even his supporters agree that the use of indiscriminate Grad rockets, which killed civilians, was disproportionate and merciless. Mr Saakashvili said he was restoring “constitutional order”. But then so did Russia when it bombed Grozny in 1994. That Russia provoked Mr Saakashvili consistently is clear, but it is equally clear that Mr Saakashvili allowed himself to be provoked. “He wanted to fight,” says one of his allies.
The Economist, Aug. 7, 2008:
The country’s strong-willed and idiosyncratic president, Mikheil Saakashvili, is not seen by all European leaders as quite the paragon of legality, freedom and reform that he claims to be. Georgia’s image was severely dented in November last year by a crackdown against the opposition.
Question: do europeans feel comfortable backing and supporting Mr. Saakashvili in spite of the above assesments?
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Menedemus @6,
Thank you for your lecture.
I used the phrase "of which we know little" in direct acknowledgment of Chamberlain's cowardly and lily-livered statement.
I preceded this however by stating that Russia 2008 is not Germany 1938.
Your sense of deja vu is misplaced.
Russia may not be pacific Sweden or the relaxed Netherlands, it may even be an unpleasant bully - and I wouldn't want to be one of the small nations that inhabit its southern flanks. But it doesn't pose a threat to the peace of Europe, or wish to 'rule the world'.
Europe would do better to look carefully at the greater risks posed by ascendant Islam and within its own demographics.
As for your statement "Europeans had the guts and fortitude to survive the Second World War and ensure the defeat of Germany", Europeans did survive - and many European partisans, resistance fighters and remnants of continental armies fought bravely, but the defeat of Nazi Germany - and thus the survival of Europe - is attributable to Britain, Russia and the USA.
Also, don't forget that in WW2 the Germans and Italians and their many, many allies and collaborators from Jersey in the west to Russia in the east were Europeans.
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Which is worse the EU or Russia ,both got one thing in common they are not democratic in anyway and force thing on there people
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In my post @10 I must point out that the 'collaborators' were from Jersey in the west to Russia in the east - and not the actual countries/territories.
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MaxSceptic @ 10
On what basis do you presume that Russia of 2008 cannot be equated to the Third Reich of 1938.
On a comparison of 1938 to 2008, neither country had yet declared war but were aggressive towards their neighbours and both countries annexed countries by threat and bullying before they opened real hostilities subsequently.
If you seriously mean to tell me that Russia does not have any designs upon the Crimea and even fracturing the current Ukrainian democracy in due course through force of arms then I find your naivety astonishing.
The one thing that history tells us is that appeasement does not work - it merely postpones the day when the aggressor nation has to be given an ultimatum . . . desist or face the consequences.
If Europe does not resist Russian aggression then we are going to be faced with a country that dominates through fear and oppression.
We read of an an anti-Russian website owner being 'shot whilst in police custody' yesterday. The same day as his website, "ingushetia.ru", was closed by Russian Authorities. Today we read that Russian military forces have entered Ingushetia to put down a rebellion "Russia faces a new Cacusus Uprising). Strangely enough this is EXACTLY what Georgian troops intended doing with South Ossetia and to which Russia invoked invasion "to defend it's citizens?" . . . . . it's something for which they have castoigated Georgia but it is alright for them to do in Ingushetia?
All this is symptomatic of Russia becoming an Aggressive State and, if Europe does not draw a line in the sand now, we will reap more dreadful consequences in a very short amount of time!
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MaxSceptic wrote:
"Georgia is not a European problem. Georgia is not in Europe - and never will be unless the earth's tectonic plates rearrange themselves sometime soon."
Dear friend, wipe the dust out of your old world atlas and check again.
"Oh yes, and I don't want to see British troops dying in the Ukrainian steppes or the mountains of the Caucasus for countries "of which we know little" - and the little I do know I don't much care for."
Yeah, geography is a tricky thing. One day Gdansk is not in Europe, and another day Bagdad is.
***
Greetings from Poland
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MaxSceptic at #12
I would not worry, in the event of hostilities between Russia and the rest of Europe I am sure there will be many European Collaborators sympathetic towards Russia that crawl out of the woodwork - from the Atlantic Coast to the Caucuses and beyond!
Europe will have to deal with that issue as it did during the Second World War and it's aftermath.
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Max Sceptic
Your name says it all.
It is important to understand that what is happening today is not the problem of a small country, but more a global one.
Secondly, I do not understand how russia can resolve or sort the problem of fundamental islamists - the statistics show, that while the population of russia is significantly dwindling, it is mainly at the expense of slavs - muslim population is on the rise there; and for general information:
Russia has got 19 autonomous republics of its own. Most of them are populated by muslim population (chechens being one of them). After Russia's actions, I am sure we'll soon start hearing from them- they will all want to follow the suit. They cancause a lot of problems and not only for Russia.
It is normal that some people in the west are only worried about their utility bills. Propbably politicians understand things better
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Does Sikorski really think anyone from western Europe is willing to fight for Poland? Let Poland defend itself, I'll bet that they won't be so belligerent if they realize how we here think.
And as another poster has mentioned, most of 'old' Europe (particularly Germany, France, Belgium and Italy) is heavily in debt, whereas Russia does not have national debts and probably owns sizeable chunks of 'western' debt (they would if they were smart). Western Europe in particular will find out within a few decades at most that its welfare states can no longer be afforded.
We can all blame immigration for that, because a welfare system is essentially a closed system. Once you let too many people in from the outside, and give them entitlements, you upset the balance. It's already starting, housing prices will collapse first (despite desperate government attempts to prop them up), leading to a domino effect which will have serious consequences.
By the way, who elected Barroso to grandstand on our behalf?
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Is this not all a little over dramatic? Mr Sikorski seems to be trying to intimidate Russia with a large and powerful union of states. He has reason, Poland has in the past been invaded and annexed by neighbors far more powerful than itself. I really don't think that Europe will be stupid enough to embroil itself in another major war. His statements are barking rather than biting.
Mendemus:
The comparison with WWII is misplaced. You say 'Europeans had the guts and fortitude to survive the Second World War and ensure the defeat of Germany. ' It has been pointed out that only one of the Big Three was in Europe. In addition to this the oil situation is vastly different, we would be able to rely on no supplies from Russia and probably no supplies from the Middle East. North Sea oil won't get us far. So unless Europe can fight a war (cold or otherwise) without oil, any conflict with Russia will be short and pointless. Hopefully our leaders know this...
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SarcasticIdealist @18
Yes, the Big Three carved up Europe for post-1945 at Yalta. Roosevelt in order to keep the Russians onside, Stalin gleefully because it gave the USSR the lands of Eastern Europe and Churchill, anti-communist all of his life, with disgust as he immediately recognised that Yalta would lead to the creation of the Iron Curtain behind which the Russians and the USSR would aggressively dominate and subjugate those peoples.
However, when I said many Europeans (at #6) I was trying not to forget the tremendous efforts of the free Polish, Free French, Free Belgians and Free Dutch and many other young men and women who escaped the tyrrany of the Third Reich and fought to free Europe - many sacrificing their lives to return freedom to Europe.
Sadly, I believe their sacrifices are being spat upon by the lily-livered leaders of Germany, Italy and France who epitomise vacillation and appeasement because they worry more about the economic consequences of standing firm against Russian aggression than they do about their responsibilities towards defending freedom.
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I can only repeat my position that while Russia in 2008 is no Mother Theresa, neither is she Nazi Germany.
By making ludicrous comparisons and flawed reasoning people here are ratcheting up their bellicose language from a non-existent cold war to a the verge of a shooting war. The amusing thing is that these 'brave' Europeans will end up asking the US and Britain to do the fighting (as usual). EU armies are about as useful as a eunuch in a bordello.
And to be a blunt an callous Englishman (and paraphrasing Bismarck): The whole of the Caucasus and Ukraine/Crimea are not worth the bones of one Grenadier Guard.
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Egor_NY @ 9
You say "The Economist, Aug. 7, 2008:
The country?s strong-willed and idiosyncratic president, Mikheil Saakashvili, is not seen by all European leaders as quite the paragon of legality, freedom and reform that he claims to be. Georgia?s image was severely dented in November last year by a crackdown against the opposition."
Question : Would you now say or guess that this crackdown(November last year) was possibly engineered by the Russians?
See, I have this feeling that this whole thing was planned by the Russians and that they have every intent to ignore everybody else and actually change the current regime in Georgia so that they will eventually control it. Again I believe this is to place a stranglehold on the pipelines that pass through its territory and possibly financially gain from it.
However saying that, having read recently that a major gas pipeline from Norway recently came online - I'd say that the Brits now have a safe source for Gas and would be able to supply Europe at profit? I agree I could be wrong.
I'm not for war mongering - I'd rather be looking for a solution that would suit all sides.
As for Peacekeepers in Georgia - I believe the UN should look into replacing the Russian peacekeepers there with another country representing peace there but supported by all side, not Russian/American/European/(Nor any country linked to NATO) - any suggestions?
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So it's out talks on a Europen partnership are suspended. Mmm it took em 15 months to decide if they wanted to to talk to Russia in the first place and then only if they'd accept Polish meat products. Looks like alot of keilbasa is going to be wasted but then take heart it can always be shipped to the UK. Plenty of buyers there.
Brown is incensed he wanted more. Perhaps he'll stop BA flying to Moscow and instead to Tiblisi must be loads of business there eh! Yes that'll get them to submit how about cancelling the winter olympics at Sochi. Trouble is that'll upset the fixtures at the London Olympics when Russia doesn't turn up.
Visas ah yes! That'll show em stop all visas. Might get a bit messy when the Russians start selling off their London real estate. Funny old world called democracy. You know the one that didn't elect Barrosa or his bunch of cohorts not to mention the European president. Still the good news is that the US will elect their president okay, that is unless it's a tie then it'll be decided by seven geriatrics. So much for politics.
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The Statement of the Extraordinary European Council Meeting is pleasantly surprising for me but probably a disappointement for MaxSceptic and pro-Russian sympathisers.
Eu-Ruussia Statement
It would seem that the EU has suspended the discussions on the Trade Pact between the EU and Russia (as Gordon Brown for the UK advocated), financial and relief supplies support will be provided to Georgia and the EU will provide monitors on the ground to bulk up the efforts of the OSCE to discover what has been happening in Georgia and South Ossetia/Abkhazia.
The Russians have been given 7 days to with draw their troops back to their lines of pre-8th August, i.e back inside Russia (that is as required by the peace agreement) or face further consequences from the EU.
I find this comfortingly strongly worded, to the point and a smack in the face for Russia.
I think we can now expect further Russian aggression and for Russia to show it's true colours and intentions!
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It looks like Russia's position in the
Caucasus is not so secure that they do
not need the West's acquiescence.
A few nukes with a road map to Moscow
might take care of things permanently.
As far as the Ukraine, goes, there is
apparently some sort of political struggle
going on. That's what's really going to
decide things.
If the Ukrainian people really want to
be in NATO, then they can defend themselves
with a few upgrades to their military, they
won't need our direct intervention.
And, besides, there is now enough US
naval power in the Black Sea that their
soldiers might have to swim back if
they tried something.
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Oh, and the pipelines can be rerouted
further south - it's time Turkey and
Armenia got together and made a settlement
anyway.
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Things will go wrong till people make up their mind, stop lying and open the way to common people to be incharge of policy.
By making the monopolies of the elites, this will just bring confrontation, and total self-destruction.
Proud arrogant unelected people never see far than their nose, and they will go to war without an army following them. But they will notice it only when they will have to run back trying to save their lives, that they had never had an army of hearts and minds following them, all time long.
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s_flores,
If Poland want to play the Great Game, and antoganise Russia by discriminating against their people and talking big - then go ahead.
It is funny when the Polish leaders (the foreign minister) play the game, they do so speaking for European people - when only a minority in Poland voted for them.
These sort of people are creating even bigger divides in the EU. The fact the European Union is firmly embedded in ethnic disputes that affect a very small percentage of the population is tragedy of Europe in the 21st century.
The EU is meant to stop conflicts not take sides and send troops to trenches.
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First and foremost it is the people who live in South Ossetia and Abkhazia that matter NOT the hurt pride of Polish or British politicians who put on a performance for the benefit of their own popularity.
Georgia should not have used indiscriminate military force against its 'own' territory and 'its' own people. Nor should Russia have retaliated, but who encouraged Mikheil Saakashvili? and why?
Why on earth should the EU stand up for anything except the health and safety of the people of the region? Why should we take sides in such an adversarial manner when even the USA isn't, it appears, going to do so? Why should we be the proxy dogs of war for the USA? The answers is, of course, we should not.
Help support the material needs of the displaced and injured people. Talk to and understand the positions of both sides and see if a more sensible attitude can prevail. Georgia is quite obviously not in a position to exercise any legitimacy as a controlling power over South Ossetia as it has just been shelling them, and it has not been able to control the region every since the recent creation of Georgia. These are facts. The position of Abkhazia is similar to that of South Ossetia (but with less reason.)
Ossetia, the Alain homeland, has a strong emotional pull for the people of both North and South Ossetia and recognising this shared cultural history is I believe the way to calm things down.
The EU should not be scared of admitting that Ossetia/Alainia has its own legitimacy as in reality do the Basques of Spain and France. I do not believe that either France or Spain would ever dream of shelling their own people in an indiscriminate manner as have the Georgians.
In my view an understanding and appreciation of the need for a cultural unity for Ossetians will not set a precedent. We should be helping pour oil on troubled waters not working to inflame matters. This is not appeasement - it is a proper appreciation of legitimate rights combined with the direct result of Georgia making continuation of the present problematic arrangement impossible.
So UK and Poland please listen to the Germans and the French! You have blustered and fulminated for a while now calm down!
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seaEggBandit,
1) Poland has no means to play any "Great Game" if other EU members don't share Polish concerns about Russia.
2) Conflict in Georgia is definitely not just ethnic.
3) Keeping mouth zipped is not the best way of avoiding conflicts.
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Common people in Western Europe know little or nothing about the existence of a country called Georgia, located beyond Anatolia, in the Southern Caucasus.
So this "solidarity" towards Georgia imposed by the authorities in the West in front of Russia, a country much better well-known by the common citizens, is totally artificial and extemely dangerous.
It may be the David against Goliath fight. But it was the tiny country which started the wole mess by sending troops to an even smaller country, where they are less than welcome.
There is a main guilty in the whole crisis: the president of Georgia, whose name, I must admit, can't spell. His appearances with the European flag are a continuous provocation. Fortunately, he sounds far less than convincing.
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WoW, is education level so low in the west now that people watch 30sec BBC report and they become experts on the topic? The amount of misinformation, poor education and bigotry I read here is astounding. The fact that people are just willing to roll over and die just to avoid conflict with Russia is not encouraging. Have same BALLS like we say in US.
1. Everyone is quoting Polish foren minister Sikorski but none of them actually read his whole speech. He did not say ANYTHING about war with Russia like some posters make it sounds. He was talking about COLD WAR which is not a WAR. Actually during COLD WAR earth seemed safer as big powers were keeping little dudes in check so stuff do not escalate.
2. Poland is not the only one with the view that we need to watch Russia. Sweden, UK, Balts, Czech, Slovaks and few others agree with them. And I think we can agree that they know more about Russia and have more experience with it then our German, Spanish or French member states. It is not like Poland or Sweden is telling Spain how to deal with Morocco or Italy how to deal with Libya.
3. I am just wondering why our posters here that like Russia so much and hate US so much are not angry at that invasion? Most of the west was livid about US invading Iraq (I actually agree with their view at that war, US should not be there) but they are so ready to forgive Russia for doing the same.
4. If anyone here thinks that the attack on Georgia was not planed in advance then they need to go to army for few years. NO ARMY REACTS THAT FAST! Even US troops need time to move forces and plan and we have better transport power than anyone on the planet. Also, everyone knows that S. Ossetia’s did shell Georgia right before Georgian attack. So where were Russian peace keepers? Not that I am saying that Georgian president did smart thing.
5. All the crying, wishing, talking will not change the fact that YOU made yourself dependent on energy supply from 1 nation. One nation that is not very peaceful. So you can’t do anything now. If Russians decide to do something else YOU can’t react more than you did not. Russia can live without your cash for years (they have huge surplus from years of selling it to you) You can last without their oil and gas for 3 months. Poles are not trying to start a war, they trying to show you how stupid you are in continuing with that policy. So do not blame the messenger for your own faults.
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This comment was removed because the moderators found it broke the House Rules.
Hello,
I am from Gdansk, this is the city which Hitler always wanted and he demanded it from Poland in 1939. Before Nazi aggression whole Europe declared that "We don't want to die for Danzig!" - Just because they do know a little about the city and the people who live there...
In 1939 we had a great Foreign Minister - Józef Beck, who said: "We in Poland do not know the concept of peace at any price. There is only one thing in the lives of men, nations and countries that is without price. That thing is honor."
My point is we can't sacrifice freedom and integrity of any nation, especially when we share the same values. In 1939 Poland was left alone in front of two agressors - Hitler and Stalin. This is just sure as egg is egg, that Poland with support form France and Britain would win the war - the situation in 1939 was difrent than in 1941. German attacked from both sides couldn't stand our forces.
What I am trying to say is that together we are the most powerful organization. Even our economic - taking is as the one - whole Europe/European Union - our market is bigger and doing better than US.
My point is, that EU should have one economic, one politic. It is on hand for Russia that Europe is divided. I hope that in one day we all can say: I am European and my particular-nation interest is lower than welfare of all nations. I hope you know what I meant.
Kind regards,
P.S. I also hope that Sikorski is going to be next president in Poland; I would be nice reward for 4 years of humiliation delivered by L. Kaczynski.
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#33, Nasir89, that's right. As Ben Franklin
said, "We must, indeed, all hang together, or most
assuredly, we shall all hang separately."
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Nasir89 writes: My point is, that EU should have one economic, one politic.
You see, Europe can't have one economic so long as some countries engineer likes of Mercedeses and BMW's and the other do Polonaises/Trabants and grow potatoes and kirby cuces. Is it not pathetic when the latter "teache life" to the former? There is no reason in this world why those who can buy enough of the ever scarce natural resources by virtue of selling products their ingenius manufacturing and engineering technologies can produce, should share them with those who can't. You can only count on what you can earn or have inherited. Mr. Sikorsky is not in a strong position here. It appears that he can not secure needed supplies for his country in a normal capitalist way. The approach he chosen is, how to say it, that of a beggar?
nic_o_mo writes: Question : Would you now say or guess that this crackdown(November last year) was possibly engineered by the Russians?
Yes, naughty russians have kidnapped poor Mr. Saakashvili and hypnitized him, ordering to shut down the only opposition TV station, which by the way was run by Rupert Murdoch and owned by a London-based georgian billionaire, who was mounting an opposition to Saakashvili but died few months later at the age of 58 under suspicious circumstances at his London villa. Or, may be it was not russians, may be it was martians? Or more distant aliens?
Turn on your brain, man!!!
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Comparison of Russian intervention in Georgia and Hitler's expansion in 1930's is a misinterpretation. What the western countries did with Kosovo a couple months ago is very reminiscent of Munich 1938 (big European powers agree to split a country).
@Nasir89 - Polish government went along with this violation of international law. Is that the Polish honour you are talking about? What international law is going to protect Poland (or any other country) when she herself doesn't respect it?
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Egor_NY
Dodu you know that they do not make Trabant anymore and it was German made? Also you know that many German and French car factorys moved to Eastern Europe?
Not surw what are you talking about when comes to being unable to secure supplies in capitalistic way....As far as Poland is concerned they buy everything in capitalistic way and they have cheeper oil and gas then Germany. They just are not willing to sacrifice security for oil. I will also say that your post is almost raceist when you say that poorer nations can't teach richer nations about Russia becouse they do not make nice cars..LOL
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jaksap wrote:
"Polish government went along with this violation of international law..."
Let's agree - using intentional law as an argument is a hypocrisy - no matter who does it. Europe rushed to recognize Kosovo, but now is lamenting that international law is violated in Georgia. On the other hand Russians didn't recognized Kosovo, but now use independent Kosovo as an excuse for their own actions.
***
"...to protect Poland (or any other country) when she herself doesn't respect it?"
SHE HERself? Jaksap, what's your mother tongue? Isn't it Russian by chance, hm?
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@s_flores,
I agree about hypocrisy, but the all-virtuous NATO powers totally ignore the paradox they created. Basically, NATO is there to protect US interests, and nothing else.
My language is not Russian, I am an Serbian living in Canada. 'She' may be used in English to refer to countries (as far as I know).
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Oh you spoilt European nations! It is difficult for the child when the mother decides to stop breast feeding him/her! To whom is Russia going to sell gas? To majority of people in India and China living in tents? Or maybe other undeveloped countries?
And you think that you have a right to put entire nation of Georgia under the terror of Russia, for a little bit of your own commodity?! Of course history repeats itself! Rich European countries AGAIN are deciding for the faith of millions of people, as they did in early 20th century, as they did after the end of WWII….when they draw borders without asking population of the concerned countries, when they decided who is going to run the east and west! And when nations fight to improve their situation, to better their lives, the rich Europe wonders: why are these barbarian nations fighting in 21st century!
Europe enjoy your Russian natural gas and the feel of guilt that someone’s children suffer because of your wrong decision!
And saying that Islam is wrong, bad, threat is the same as saying all Chinese are bad or all English are polite!
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jaksap,
Ok, I can understand your point better now. You have at least as good reasons not to trust NATO, as Poles not to believe that Russians gave up their imperial habits.
Still people in Central Europe feel more secure as US puppets than Russia's brothers.
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jaksap.... Kosovo was given to, at that time, kingdom of SCS, as part of Serbia, during the Berlin and London congress (again the rich European countries drawing borders)! Moving serbs from serbia, and later Croatia and Bosnia in Kosovo, giving them the best jobs, houses etc is called ethnic cleansing (forced emigration and population exchange, expulsion of a population from a given territory) of Albanians! This is the same politic that Russia is applying in Georgia!
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egor in NY,
when discussing the images of other countries, why do you forget the image of your country.
I will remind you the image of your president or ex-president Putin together with its population and this image is Submarine 'Kursk", Theater Nord-ost', Beslan 'school', a Block of flats blown up in moscow. thousands of dead chechens, Thousands of georgian refugees from Abkhazia and South osetia (by the way this place has it's original Georgian name SAMACHABLO and MACHABELI was a noble famili owning this district, simple tour in the resent history), russians starving in russia and having no gas while you are selling it to others and several oligarkhs puting money in their big pockets. all your history is a disuster for the counrits and peoples around you. name me one country russia has ever done good to. is this Cuba? And many other and so on and etc. Don't chet others that you are a good guy. You are an ordinary russian living in NY because you cannot earn for living in russia. But you are russian and you will always defend russian bad imperial tastes.
Max_sceptic,
sceptic people are often punished. You don't care? Are you having fun here? I DO CARE! So move aside!!!!!!!!
alanbloggz,
you believe there are no oligarkhs in russia. Have you ever thought who PUTIN is? ha,ha, ha,,,,, I guess you live too faar from russia and the truth indeed.
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gunsandreligion; what a quaint name must be American judging by the rhetoric. Reroute pipelines eh. Well thats a novel idea shouldn't take more than aweekend or two that one. Nuke Moscow? So what happens if Russia gets the first one in say New York or London might not be such a good idea after all. All these bombing pundits seem to forget that it's a two way affair and judging by reactions from the west I don't think they'd be too happy at getting nuked either. But then bombing is the American way, and they'll not stand by and see some civilians flattened in the process er like in Hiroshima. On the Russian front yes Moscow is a big city but it isn't Russia as a whole I guess alot more would be needed to subdue the biggest country on earth. As Hitler, Napoleon etc found out too. But then I suppose it's okay to sit back and make these worthless statements from the comfort of your home or office. Sure beats the reality of trying to do it from a bunker where no one will get to read it.
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It still always comes back to one basic reality, a leopard does not change it's spots. Whether Russia in 2008 is like the USSR or Germany in 1938 is not important, it is simply amazingly stupid for anybody to either like or trust them, and this is something they have been like for many many years. I've lost count of the number of UN resolutions that have been blocked by the Russians because it involved this 'sphere of influence' rubbish, and please don't rabbit on about the US or Nato being no different as not all resolutions are business orientated.
I also seem to recall that Russia have even had an input in Zimbabwe's problems since Mugabe is also a communist and have helped to block any meaningful action against him. That's not oil or business but simply supporting an evil dictator who simply shares the same rotten ideals as they.
Finally, if there is one good thing that could come out of the debacle that our EU leaders have created over the last few years, it is to maybe concentrate minds back on the basics of making the EU finally work. Partnerships with Russia were always politicians folly and part of their crazy grand design, they will not be missed and neither will the grand designs of arch collaborators France and Germany.
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Russia is the only remaining colonial empire. Unless they give up their colonial ambitions in and allow full independence of the former Soviet Republics in the Caucasus and Central Asia as well as the various non-Russian regions within Russian Federation, there will be no long-lasting peace.
Russia can go on being a regional bully. If it is willing to undertake change, modernization and genuine democratization, it may become smaller geographically, but it will be more stable and at peace with itself and its neighbors.
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Western Europe has made blunder after blunder. If it hadn't challenged the US in Iraq but cooperated with it instead, Iraq would be a very different place today and there would be millions of barrels a day more oil supplied to the world. This would have diminished the power of Russia to become as rich and wield as much power over them as it does. The ego driven unnecessary confrontation with the US it initiated has made Aemricans ambivalent over what the consequences to Europe of a new cold war will be. This American doesn't really care if Europe freezes to death. This American thinks the US should pull out of NATO. Russia won't attack Western Europe militarily. Both France and Britain individually have sufficent nuclear weapons to thwart any such attack. Either could destroy Russia.
Had the EU not favored the WTO and lived within its means, its standard of living would be lower but it would not have lost its domestic industries or markets to China and it would not be nearly so vulnerable. Now its standard of living will drop anyway and it is at Russia's mercy. And the Russians of course have none. Why should they? They delude themselves that they are rightfully a great power which has been thwarted by some vague notion of something called "the West." It no more occurs to them that there problems are as much of their own doing as the EU's are. But then again they are Europeans....up to the Urals anyway. Europe once again finds itself in trouble it has created for itself. If it turns to the US for help, I vote NYET, not this time Jacques.
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elengeo @43,
"Punished" eh? I'll be happy to "move aside" just so long as you lot don't try to get Britain involved in your age-old squabbles.
Buzet23 @45,
You've confused me. You express the hope that this crises will make the EU "finally work", and then go on to castigate France and Germany as "arch collaborators".
France and Germany are the EU (albeit the former is the 'rider' and the latter the 'horse').
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JFinLDn: Well you certainly sem to have the Russians ussed out. The last colonial empire eh! The US is currently occupying two countrys by force of arms and have been for the last 7 years. They have around a 1000 permanent bases strewn around the world and are adding them on a massive basis. Their currency, as bad as it is , controls world trade. It's in hock for trillions but doesn't worry too much about that. So, just how much smaller should Russia be? Er smaller than America or say Grenada a small island which America attacked as well. From your bent logic Russia should give up all it's resources and guess what , give them to who? Someone more deserving. Okay, sounds good , so lets see the US give up it's resources to the Indians. Give back to the Mexicans all the land they stole from them. The UK too should hand back all their colonial properties too. Diego Garcia would be a start together with the Falkland Islands Lots of little colonials tucked away aren't there. So you see chum it's goose and gander stuff. Pity Russia is such a big morsel to swallow, but then Nato etc can soon cure that can't they? Oh they can't eh! Tough being a colonial power innit!
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MaxSceptic, #48,
You did understand what I meant judging by your final comment, it's simply my view that it's time that particular horse and it's rider were sent to the knackers yard. If this means a two stream EU then let France, Germany and any others that support them go off and create a new Mediterranean EU. Meanwhile the other countries that are more realistic can set about making a new smaller Northern EU that actually works and has real open borders, free movement etc unlike the current nationalistic undemocratic set up.
Therefore if this crisis and the 'energy' crisis that may well come about makes our politicians go back to basics, it's not before time and hopefully not too late.
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I think one point needs to be cleared up. The posters around here are talking up Russia as a rich country due to its resources, mainly oil and gas. Russia has the money and resoures to conquer Europe, while Europe is corrupt and bankrupt. This is a circus clown silliness, or pure sarcasm, and yet people take it seriously.
The FACTS are that Poland has higher per person income than Russia. The overall income of Poland is roughly a third of Russia's. Yes, this is less than the Russian one, but not out of the same league. Poland has done it without having oil and without the current resource boom.
You do not see apparent signs of wealth, Poles buying up property in London, or ultra rich Polish oligarchs flaunting wealth in the West... this is all FOR THE BETTER, simply because it means that wealth in Poland is more evenly distributed. In Russia some people are very rich, while the rest has that much less.
Other countries in the former Soviet sphere of influence, are doing even better in per capita income than Poland, but again are smaller.
As an excercise I added up the national GDPs of Poland, Czechs, Slovakia, Hungary, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Romania, and Bulgaria, i.e. the former Soviet sphere of influence countries currently in the EU. INTERESTINGLY the total GDP of the former Soviet sphere of influence is almost EXACLTY THE SAME (marginally higher) as that of the Russian Federation.
The above has several implications. One, the Russians and the westerners who repeat the propagana of sudden Russian wealth are living in a FANTASY land, the Russians are not as wealthy as they think, and the standard of living is better in the former Soviet sphere than in Russia itself. I have to laugh when Russians are calling Poland a begger, when they are poorer with worse wealth distribution.
Two, the westerners who are talking up Russia as an important market and a powerful economic partner while ignoring Eastern Europe are fools... as Eastern Europe together is the same sized market as Russia itself, it is democratic, it is stable, and part of the EU. Which one is the more important partner then? Do they want to sacrifice to Eastern Europe as whole to gain favour with Russia, but in the process give Russia access to at least double the economic resources it currently has?!
Three, taken as a whole, the Eastern Europe which is part of the EU is economically equivalent to EU and thus has the capability to challenge Russia, given the chance to develop defences and mature economically. Russian military might are Soviet leftovers and current posturing. The EU Eastern Europe does not have the military build up from the past, does not have the nukes, etc, but it has the economic resources to even currently match Russia... and this Eastern Europe will only get stronger and more powerful as it develops without Russian interference.
So, I think Sikorksi's argument about economic wealth determining the outcome of a conflict is a valid one. Put it very simply, MORE money buys MORE weapons and defences. It would be very stupid of Western Europeans to abandon and do not support Eastern Europe giving Russia that much more resources to fight Western Europe with later, when their time comes later.
We ALL should remember that TOGETHER, we are strong and powerful, when we co-operate and support each other... or we can be picked off one by one when on a single country to country level we can not match Russia.
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This comment was removed because the moderators found it broke the House Rules.
Sorry, did not edit properly, "Three, taken as a whole, the Eastern Europe which is part of the EU is economically equivalent to EU and thus has the capability to challenge Russia" is of course NOT correct.
Should be that "... it is economically equivalent to and thus has the capability to challenge Russia".
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buzet23 @50,
I agree with mcdv-1975 @52.
Britain should not be a member of any EU that involves political union.
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MaxSceptic #50,
I don't know what mcdv-1975 said but it looks like it was not PC as it's not displayed, but you're absolutely right, political union is and always will be a disaster within Europe, not only for the UK but for any of our countries. It is something that exists only in the minds of wannabe egoistical politicians so that they can feel they have power.
PS. it seems that Russia is welcoming the fact that sanctions were not applied, somewhat similar to Chamberlain's agreement with Hitler I think, the chess gambit from Russia worked and the political fools in the EU fell for it, no doubt France will soon announce a new business deal with Russia after Sarko has been to Moscow.
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Egor-NY (post no. 9), your quoting from The Economist is so selective that it borders on lying. The articles you cherry pick from are actually deeply critical of Russia, as a visit to the Economist website will prove. With regard to trusting Mr. Shakashvilli, I trust him a lot more than a KGB spook who has raped and pillaged Chechnya and destroyed democracy and press freedom in his country.
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2 #43, #56, et. al.
>your quoting from The Economist is so selective that it borders on lying.
You don't like the taste of "western media's" own medicine? Is your comment not relevant for its coverage of this conflict? Russia's evils, existing and non-existing, real and imaginary, are covered in abundant plentiness. Those of the "demcratic pro-western leader of Georgia" and his regime - hardly at all. Incidentally, there also seem to have been an interesting change in the on-line version of the Economist's editorial (the first paragraph I quoted) compared to the in printed version (some quite damning assessment removed - have to look up the print again).
As for trusting Mr. Saakashvili - well, have you listened to what he was saying during the conflict? Well, being impartial is hard. What would be your assessment if two high-level politicians capable and villing to mount political challenge to Putin would have died under suspicious circumstances within a year or two? That would be KGB dirty deeds, of course. But in georgian case (PM Zhvania and billoiner oligarch owning the only opposition TV channel) it is just fate I assume...
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2 #37
1. I certainly know who manufactured which car and when. What I did not know is that Polish manufacturing industries have as of lately developed so far as to be competitive with Germany's, et. al., and not just be a source of cheaper labor for germans, et. al., to outsource some of their manufacturing to. Sorry if I was ill informed on this. LOL.
2. > your post is almost raceist when you say that poorer nations can't teach richer nations about Russia
Well, you see, this is exactly the kind of reasoning, which was used to dismiss russian interests and opinions a decade ago, when oil prices were under $20/barrel and russian economy was 1/7 of its present size. Poland was quite supportive of such approach. You say you don't like the taste of this medicine?
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no51 rob_hob, thanks for injecting some common sense into this debate.
Speaking of the threat of cutting off the gas/oil pipelines - do these people think we get the stuff for free from Russia? If this happens surely the end result would be higher prices for everyone (including the USA) as the EU sources more oil from overseas, and lower income for the Rusian Billionaires. Not good ,but not the end of EU.
MAII, are you saying that the US (and of course UK, Australia, etc) weren't capable of handling Iraq on their own? If the French had sent soldiers too would they have found the illusive WMD or terrorist training camps? Or maybe you're saying that the EU holds such political power across the whole world that because it didn't support your invasion the Iraqis have turned from being thankful, liberated people to those who are currently trying to remove your soldiers? As usual when you cover this subject, I'm confused.
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egoor in NY,
please be kind, leave this poor Saakashvili with his own problems, why do you hate him? because he is taller then others??? (you Know) or this is xenophobia speaking in you.
And read very carefully what
MarcusAureliusII and Rob_Hob
are writing. they have excellent skills to express their oppinion in written. It's not difficult, you will understand, you just have to try.
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2 #60
> leave this poor Saakashvili with his own problems, why do you hate him?
1. Unfortunately, he is at the source of the problem, which is why the factual aspects of his activities are of interest. Many of these are well documented but are rarely, if ever discussed. I strongly encourage every thinking individual to study relevant sources.
2. I do not hate him - rather despise. I actually am really surprised that people can be serious about this guy after all the lies he poured into our ears day after day during the conflict. And I mean BLATANT FACTUAL LIES. Like "russians bombed the BP pipeline" (you might check with BP on that), "we downed 19 russian planes" (check with Pentagon - they have an opinion), "fifty russian planes are bobming Gori - the city is destroyed" (check with UNOSAT, comparison of destruction with Tskhinvali is quite revealing), "we did not use the wording "restore constitutional order" (BBC invented this on Aug. 7?) and lots and lots more.
3. As for prolific writings of MarcusAureliusII and Rob_Hob - I did address the issue of ignoring facts in favor of verbal promiscuity in my posts on this and the Editors blogs. I have even referred them to unbiased sources where possible. They apparently aren't interested in these, in learning facts - and neither are you it seems. Well, we have no common grounds then. Have fun, feel well - I quit here.
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jaksap, #36
You wrote that Poland went along with violation of international law. Can you tell what exactly did you mean?
As far as i am concerned Poles are involved in several mission all around the world to protect international law (Kosovo, Bosnia, Chad, Syria, Lebanon, Iraq, Afghanistan).
I see you are from Serbia, it's fine for me, but It explains why you advocate Russia. Both this countries are connected culturally, and historically. World War I started in Serbia and Russia was first who helped your country.
It's totally ironic that somebody from Serbia is talking about respecting of international law. It's enough to mention about Slobodan Milosevic;
Egor_NY, #35 - your opinion is something that I totally disagree, fortunately, pomi111 in his comment #37 said everything that I wanted to say you.
Kind regards,
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For all their historic monuments, Western European's seem to overlook some of their most recent and important ones. That World War II was a monument to naivete and stupidity and the cold war which kept them from falling into the slave empire of the USSR was the result of sheer political will on the part of the United States backed up with tough economic and other isolation and the ultimate threat war at any level.
Many, possibly most in Western Europe seem to have forgotten this lesson as have their traitorous naive liberal counterparts in the United States who still think they can talk their way out of the consequences of facing a determined aggressor who has designs on empire such as Russia and Iran without the threat of war.
American Conservatives and many Eastern Europeans know that the only way to thwart aggression is with force. It starts by imposing painful sanctions NOW such as a trade embargo, freezing all western bank accounts held by Russian interests, closing off Western markets, and putting all Western financial, scientific, and managerial resources beyond the reach of the Russians. In short, inflicting on them real financial pain the way America does to Cuba and the Gazans. And it must be backed up with a clear understanding that the consequences of military incursions like what we just saw in Georgia can lead to war up to any level. Anything less is a signal that the West does not have the political will or commitment to protect and defend freedom. IMO, Western Europe will fall short of this mark because it is unprincipled and corrupt. Russia is counting on it and I don't think it will be disappointed. If we get Barack Obama in the White House, his naivete will be one more weakness Russia can exploit.
Jaw jaw is better that war war is a fools prescription for defeat of freedom which history has proven to us time and again. Talk is cheap. The only thing Russia understands at its primitive stage of political development is the use of force and the threat and demonstrated willingness to use even more. This was one reason Hiroshima and Nagasaki were so valuable, they left no room for doubt in Russia's mind that at least the US would have no reservations about using whatever weapons it had at its disposal to defend its freedom. Betwen Iran, North Korea, and Russia, perhaps the world needs a demonstration on a remote island of just what war could men in the modern era. It seems to have become far too abstract.
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I really don't understand what is the problem here and what the EU needs to act upon.
Is there any questioning of the facts?
Russia did exactly in S.Ossetia exactly what
NATO did in Yugoslavia, only faster.
In both cases the reason for the intervention was that one sovereign country was practicing ethnic cleansing against a segment of its population.
In both cases we have segments that identify themselves differently than the majority and want to live in ther own country rather than be a minority in a country they do not feel their own. In both cases the borders are inviolable according to international law, so it is very inconsistent that the very countries that rushed to recognize Kossovo now have such harsh words for Russia when it recognized the breakaway republics. Plus, After the declaration of Kossovo's independence,
Russia had warned that the case of S.Ossetia and Abhazia is exactly the same in their view, but it was not Russia who triggered all this, it was Sakashvilli. I could understand a sharp reaction from the countries which did not recognize Kossovo, but not from those who did.
I agree with Max Sceptic that the major threat are the islamofascists, so
why should one create more enemies who should be on our side in this conflict with radical islam? After all, we have common interests with Russia in that.
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