The bookies may regret trying to be ahead of the game. Bookmaker Paddy Power decided on an early payout to those who gambled on a Yes vote. Now they're feeling decidedly nervous. The No camp tell me they're very happy with the early results, which point towards a victory for them. They say key constituencies are voting No at over 60% , while the Yes campaign's strongest areas are getting barely over 50%. Still, I think it's a bit too early to call.
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I’m Mark Mardell, the BBC's North America editor. These are my reflections on American politics, some thoughts on being a Brit living in the USA, and who knows what else? My previous blog, as the BBC’s man in Europe, taught me one thing at least: your comments are key. I read them all, so please have your say.
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Are you thinking it's too early to call or are you hoping it's too early to call? Wishful thinking?
The Irish have no idea what the treaty they may have turned down could have done for them and Europe. And there-in lied one of its main problems, people when given the chance to choose democratically would not endorse a sweeping treaty they couldn't begin to comprehend and could not be explained to them in simple language by anyone they trusted.
So if the final answer is no, the next move for the EU is what, to remove the last vestige of a pretense of being a democracy and openly and unabashedly impose its will on 540 million people who will have nothing further to say about it? That seems to be the case. Brussels wiill jam it Constitution down Europe's throat one way or another and there isn't anything anyone can do about it...except leave while they still can. As the EU begins to resemble the USSR more and more politically, it will ultimately evolve into it socially and economically. Russia's past is the EU's future. The signs are unmistakable.
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Its going to be a No.
I am going to get the next flight over to London so all of our British friends can buy me a pint.
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I voted no yesterday. 1st time voting no as I have always previously voted yes. What changed my mind was the threat of a common tax regime across Europe. Any thread to Irelands tax independence is a potential risk to the health of the economy. This is what has pushed many middle class people from yes to no in this campaign.
BTW Mardell is insulting all the no's by saying we only voted no because we were too stupid to understand the treay. Lazy journalism.
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if it's a no, as seems likely, there will be more pressure to forge a two-tiered EU (in so far is it doesn't exist already: see Schengen, eurozone,...)
Too bad the no vote had to revert to blatant lies (when don't they?) like those on neutrality, abortion, taxes... And rest assured that the same No-camp will soon enough resume complaining -or should I say whining?- about the (percieved) lack of democracy in the EU, of course ignoring the fact that they shot down those changes that would make the whole system more democratic.
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Unfortunately I fear that even if the NO side win (please) than if the result is as close as it appears it will be, than the EU will merely force this Treaty (Constitution) on the people of Ireland and Europe, using the familiar condescending argument of “The voters didn’t understand what they were voting for” i.e. we are smarter than you, so do as we tell you too.
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I'm travelling to Eire tomorrow to visit the In Laws and will be downing plenty of Guinness if the vote is No. At least one country in the EUSSR has a democracy, unlike our own increasingly dictatorial regime.
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@ #2 archkatakana:
Even an Irishman couldn't drink that many pints.
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Please I beg of you in your Analysis, please Don't give the opinion the No side are Anti EU
I'm staunchly pro E.U. but on the No side as this is not the E.U. i want.
I'm not a racist or a bigot or a Catholic or a nationalist, I'm a Young 21 year old (irish) European who knows a bad (and undemocratic) deal when he sees it.
Also please don't put all the no side down to the Don't know, who are a big part but not all of the picture.
I've seen so much twee patronising wrighting about Ireland over the last few days, e.g. over abortion, an issue to only a few in the far wings. (hell if I though it would bring it in (it wont) i might have voted yes..)
The yes side have Failed to explain it.
More importantly they failed to make ane Lucid arguments in favour, while the no side did make clear ones against.
The Yes side (and I'm a member of the Yes supporting Labour party btw) came up with empty retoric telling us how good the EU was.
And it was, is and hopefully will be.
The rejection of the treaty is NOT a rejection of europe, please don't let this idea grow wings, we are not like the eurosceptics on uk and Us members of the Have your say board.
thank you.
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A NO vote would not be a crisis.
A YES vote would be a crisis. They would have created something which millions of us would not recognise.
They would have created the impression that "democracy" is a swindle as it is in the UK.
Some would have concluded that you can only influence the "EU" with violence. That is not a threat on my part. That is a prediction.
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Hold your horses RTÉ are saying there's 60/40 in favour in some highly popualted urban areas.
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This comment was removed because the moderators found it broke the House Rules.
It's about time politicians started thinking of the people they are supposed to represent, and not just assuming we are all dumb idiots who don't know anything.
They might actually do things that we approve of and get some support then!
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I reckon there'll be another referendum.
For Niece Treaty round one, there was a 35% voter turnout which resulted in an overall no vote.
The politicians said "That's the wrong answer, try again".
Niece Treaty round two resulted in a 49.5% voter turnout and an overall yes vote.
Afaik, the turnout for Lisbon Treaty round one was somewhere between 40 and 45%, so they'll probably try their luck again.
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It seems to be a "no". At the same time it seems quite clear that the voters didn't understand the issue.
Some see democracy as the ritual of voting. I see it as an informed choice. For me, this has nothing to do with democracy. It's rather a collective burping exercise.
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I think that's terribly irresponsible of the Irish voters that they set back the whole Europe by voting "No" primarily because of the fact that they were too lazy to sit down and read the document.
I do not buy into the whole "it's too hard to understand, the language is incomprehensible". Seriously people, it's English language, and you're not going to get it unless you want to.
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The EU may lose this one the the evil empire will sike back with its undemocratic ways
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The is still democracy in Ireland now mr brown stand down
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The Noes have it according to the Justice Minister - Let's see how Brussels react now. If a country that has benefited more than anyother from the EU can't even bring itself to vote for this Treaty they (EU) must now realise they are doing something seriously wrong.
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I have never felt so ashamed to be Irish as I feel today. How can people say they didn't understand the treaty? The referendum commission sent leaflets out to every household with plenty of concise information. There were also lots of other sources of information.
If people were too lazy to research what they were voting on why did they bother to turn up to vote? It makes no sense.
Even if the yes side manage to scrape through with an unlikely victory at this stage, this is still a sad day for Ireland. I thought we were an educated electorate.
Even though I am pro-Lisbon treaty, a no win would have been much easier to accept if people were voting no on principle, rather than simply because they couldn't be bothered spending some time trying to understand the treaty.
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#15,
There has been a high profile "Yes" campaign lead personally by the Taoiseach with the support of virtually the entire political establishment. They have had plenty of opportunity to get their message across and explain the content of the treaty. If they have failed to convince people of the merits of their case then they should be taking a long hard look at themselves. You can't sell a bad product no matter how slick the advertising is.
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If the only country given a vote, and a traditionally pro-Euro country at that, rejects this theft of their constitution, how can any of the EU bigwigs think that we want this treaty?
Oh, of course, they KNOW we don't want it, which is why we've all been denied a vote
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Gruenebaum1,
I actually voted yes in the end on the merits of a little known document called "The Crotty Judgement".
I could make head nor tail of the Treaty and wouldn't dare to argue with voting no based on their lack of understanding of it.
Perhaps you could inform me on the following section of the Treaty from page 100 and tell me:
a) What it means.
b) Why it's good for Ireland
c) Why it's good for Europe
Or is your argument also part of a "collective burp" as you put it?
Here's the aforementioned section:
(c) in paragraph 2, the first subparagraph shall be deleted; in the third indent, the reference to paragraphs 2, 3, 4 and 5 of Article 99 shall be replaced by a reference to paragraphs 2, 3, 4 and 6 of Article 99, and the references to paragraph 2 of Article 122 and to paragraphs 4 and 5 of Article 123 shall be replaced by a reference to paragraphs 2 and 3 of Article 117a;
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zzzname6,
Perhaps you'd care to enlighten us on the meaning of the small section of the Treaty mentioned in post #22 then.
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If the Irish have voted No,,
I give them my greatest respect.
Its time gordon brown ( I refuse to refer to him as Prime Minister) gave the English people the chance to have their say on the treaty.
We want a referendum NOW gordon
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"And rest assured that the same No-camp will soon enough resume complaining -or should I say whining?- about the (percieved) lack of democracy in the EU, of course ignoring the fact that they shot down those changes that would make the whole system more democratic."
Pretty sure it is you who is complaining after a democratic vote said NO (and good on you for that Ireland - until such a day as it is part of the treaty that it must be voted on by the people and not just said yes to by a load of politicians that realised that campaigning for a yes vote might help them get onto the euro gravy train)
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archkatakana @ 2wrote:
"I am going to get the next flight over to London so all of our British friends can buy me a pint."
I don't know you from Adam - but I'll buy you a drink. Slainte!
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There will be another refernedum sometime in the future, when all of the problems are iron out.
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Revised to my original remarks:
Ireland, will have another vote on the treaty in 2009.....
--Dennis Junior--
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