Serbian vote exposes deep rift
I wonder if a portrait of Tomislav Nikolic will ever stare down on my slumbering form when I visit Belgrade.
The thought is prompted by the hotel I am staying in while covering the Serbian elections.
It has paintings of well known world leaders on the walls of the rooms.
I am relatively lucky: a stern Vaclav Havel hangs above my bed.
Colleagues have Ronald Reagan and, alarmingly, Mao.
Hitler used to grace one of the rooms but was apparently removed after complaints from the Israeli embassy. He still features on the hotel's brochure.
So, while greatness is not the same as goodness, I have a hunch Tomislav Nikolic may turn out to be a very interesting politician indeed.
Kosovo warning
Mr Nikolic is a man with strong-set policies, particularly about Kosovo.
His party says that, in power, they would continue talks about joining the European Union only if all EU countries declared that Kosovo was part of Serbia.
This will not happen when the majority have already recognised it as an independent state.
The European Union has also said talks will continue with Serbia only if it shows much more co-operation about catching those accused of war crimes such as General Mladic.
The Radicals are understandably sensitive about those accused of war crimes. Its leader Vojislav Seselj is in prison in the Hague accused of inciting the murder and torture of ethic opponents.
East or West?
This is why many see this general election as a referendum on whether Serbia should face East or West.
Although this indeed is what potentially hangs in the balance, I expected people here to be much more concerned about the economy.
Talking to people both in the Sunday market and outside a church service suggests they too are mainly interested in Serbia's place in the world.
A feature of the market is the fish stalls. At the foot of the stalls and their slabs of ice and dead fish are a number of plastic bowls justabout large enough to hold their prisoner: big fat carp, floating, if not swimming, in the water.
The proverbial big fish in a small pool, they look anything but comfortable. But Serbia is undergoing a lengthy process of readjustment from being the big fish in the small pool of Yugoslavia to choosing which bigger pool to splash in: the EU or Russia's severely diminished sphere of influence.
Mr Nikolic is in no doubt that Russia, China and Arab countries make better friends than the rest of Europe.
It is always interesting to see what happens when men with clear views swim in the murky waters of government and exercise real power.
The opinion polls predict his party will be the largest after tonight's results are counted.
But so it was in the last election, and the one before that. What has changed is Kosovo and Kostunica.
The prime minister is sometimes referred to as a kingmaker, because he heads a small party, the Serbian Democratic Party, which holds the balance of power. But he is a kingmaker who has come to adore wearing the crown himself.
After the last election he went into alliance with the pro-European Democratic Party of President Boris Tadic.
Increasingly passionate about the issue of Kosovo, he pulled the plug on the coalition after Kosovo declared independence.
After this election he may well throw his lot in with the radicals.
'Up to the EU'
Jostling alongside other reporters and camera crews, I catch up with Mr Nikolic outside a polling station in the area known as New Belgrade, across the Danube from the city centre.
After posing with his attractive wife and family, and then voting, he turns to the assembled media. I ask him about Serbia's future relations with the EU.
"The European Union will make its own mind up about whether it wants us to be a member or not," he tells me.
"We are open to them but it's all entirely up to the EU because as long as the UN recognises Serbia as a sovereign state, a whole sovereign state it will remain. The European Union has to accept this."
But didn't his conditions close the door? "Our conditions are no different from those any other country would make," he adds.
So is this election a choice between East and West?
"Of course we will be the gateway between East and West. Until such a time as the EU recognises Serbia's full sovereign borders we should have no further negotiations with the European Union."
He added that there would be better relations with those countries, such as Greece and Spain, that don't recognise Kosovo.
'Decisive poll'
As I talk to former Serbian foreign minister Vuk Draskovic, now a member of another main bloc in this election - the Coalition for a European Serbia - we can hear the hubbub from the street outside.
It is, I imagine, what many pro-European Serbs hope their country will become.
The pedestrian precinct is lined with shops familiar on any British high street, like Lush and Accessorize.
A café takes up the centre of the pavement where young, fashionably-dressed people lounge in comfortable armchairs drinking iced mocca in the spring sunshine.
Mr Draskovic believes the economy at least is at risk.
"These elections are decisive. For the future of Serbia," he tells me.
"We have two ways: to join the EU or to go back to the past of Milosevic."
That stark? I ask.
"Of course they wouldn't repeat the same things. But if the government was made up of anti-European forces, it's very clear the door will be closed on the European Union. For how long I don't know. For a year for two years, because very soon the people of Serbia will face the consequences.
"Catastrophe in the economy, catastrophe of the rule of law, catastrophe of our relations with the European Union and United States of America."
He says too it would create a black hole in the Balkans, the risk of more instability in a region famed for its instability.
The consequences of the election will take a while to show, but we should get the results soon. I will update when I can.
I’m Mark Mardell, the BBC's North America editor. These are my reflections on American politics, some thoughts on being a Brit living in the USA, and who knows what else? My 
© MMIX~RS~q~RS~~RS~z~RS~30~RS~)
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Serbian Radical Party will be victorious but the Alliance for a European Serbia and the Liberal Party will form a Coalition Government soon after this election. Serbs must understand they have no future with Russia. They don't give a damn about Serbia. The only reason why Russia 'defends' Serbia is out of their own geopolitical interests. Serbia will be member of the European Union in 2015.
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I find this blogger's euphoria at Serbia finally succumbing to the NATO Pact hordes really sickening. Just like in England, the OSCE-annointed "winning" party will do its best to represent the country's elite (2%) at the expense of its people (98%). At least the Serbs resisted as long as they could.
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Mr Mardell,
Had you crossed Danube, coming from the city centre, you would have missed your meeting with Mr Nikolic. Please enlighten me, were you lost or you simply can't see things clear. Or better, can not interpret them as they are, simple and obvious.
And what's obvious here is that Serbs turning European will have their brains and hearts wrapped up in nylon bags as the rest of the European brothers.
It is much better to stay who you are and have good relationships with your friends and manageable one with your enemies.
Yours Sincerely,
A Guy with a map
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For many good issues, I believe that Socialist party will join "pro EU" block.
Of coarse price "block" had to pay will
be remarkable.
It will prevent potential conflicts and
lot of people will be satisfied that Serbia
will get new government.
For such government, troubles will start
almost instantly. False presentations will
quickly fade, but Socialist will kep rope
tight around "block"'s neck.
Once they get clean their name and in
moment they decide, they will just get
out ( without support rope will do .. .) to
new ellections - in all new circumstances.
EU any how did not supported "block"
seriously, nor have idea to reverse decision
of certain countries - recognition of "independent" Kosovo and Metohiya.
They don't care law, moral, UN and all those
"anouying" principles. Who will be so brave
to say that all what happen from 1996 in
poor Serbia and its Kosovo and Metohiya
was only part of bigger game and return
things back? What ever I could think or say,
EU today have other values and is satisfied
to dance, what somebody else play. Even
EU leaders do not care that all the world see
their "unity" in so many basic issues, not
counting poor Serbia - strugling to be recognised and accepted where it belongs.
But, I'm not afraid. Serbia will find its way.
S. Savic
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Reading the above article Vuk Draskovic saying that Serbia has only two ways to go, EU or back to Milosevic. He is wrong! There is one more way, namely, neutral. Serbia can wait, EU can not! This is why they want Serbia to join as quickly as possible.
Serbs should be very careful of so-called pro-west politicians! They are traitors! They are already selling Serbia to the lowest bidders, who are only interested to make a quick buck, and move to the next good deal. Serbia's prosperity should not depend on speculators rather long-term investors!
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Serbian government should defend, not betray those who did what the Constitution of former Yugoslavia required them to do! Namely defend territorial integrity and keep country together. Leaders of former Yugoslav republics reneged on the preambles of Yugoslav Constitution, thus army had the right and duty to step in.
Everyone should know what NATO states would and have done in similar situation.
NATO's motto is to divide ideological foes and keep, by force and lies, all ethnic minorities in their own countries!
Serbia has a right and duty to protect those who did what the constitution required!
NATO states are responsible for the undue death of Mr. Slobodan Milosevic, knowing that his weak heart would, under continuous stress, eventually fail.
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Maybe666
There is one more way, namely, neutral. Serbia can wait, EU can not! This is why they want Serbia to join as quickly as possible.
Get of the pipe buddy. EU can't wait for serbia to join them? Why, so the can profit from the serbian great economy? Or the serbias great military power? Or serbias great strategic/ geaographic place in Europe? Maybe EU wants all the great minds of serbia to become europeans? Dude who do u think serbia is? There is a disease i forgot the name but this is what happens. When you loose an arm your brain still thinks the arm is there so it sends signals and sometimes you think you still have feelings on the fingers which you dont have anymore. Can u see a connection whith your pattern of thinking? Serbia is a quarter of what it was, ur strategic position on the balkans and europe is of no importance at all u have no world famed great minds and scientists ur economy sucks and ur military power is as good as it ever was a big hole in the water. So I would suggest wake up and see the real serbia. The way the world sees u.
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dorand_v
You described well current situation in Serbia. It is precisely why NATO took 79 days to destroy everything of value to the government hopping that it will force Serbia to join NATO states sooner, in order to recover faster. Serbia, within former Yugoslavia, has already survived NATO states' sanctions for over 10 years. Neighbouring states were also hurt by sanctions and began underground trade of essential goods. NATO was powerless to stop underground trade and they feared that their ploy will not work. As a solution to the problem, NATO decided to exacerbate political situation, using Kosovo Albanians as a weapon, to provoke Yugoslavia into a response. This response against Kosovo Albanians was then used as a pretext to intervene militarily, because it was the only sure way to get rid of Milosevic and his communist regime. In any event, NATO states should not benefit from their crime against Serbia. The worst thing Serbia could do is to join EU and NATO! NATO states would not spent over 30 billions on destruction of Yugoslavia and counting unless they had a real, real good reason! You will agree that NATO does not care about ethnic minorities, nevertheless, as we have seen, they can be a very useful weapon. From Serbia's point of view, joining EU is not as big an issue as is their corrupt and definition-less 24/7 capitalism! If NATO drops capitalism as a way of life, Serbia would jump head first, without looking!
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I agree 100% with you. I do not agree with the doublestanders but you my friend are not one. This is my point, Serbia is not ready for the EU. One cannot be part of something they do not believe in, one cannot be part of something they do not belong in. We got to be realistic, as for now Serbia got bigger issues that Europe. The serbs need to have e clear view and direction of where they want to gow then move forward. I respect your views.
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Intesting note on the article:
"Pro-European" Vuk Draskovic was one of the most vociferous hate mongers out of Serbia prior to the war, was an open and unapologetic advocate of an ethnically pure "Greater Serbia" encompassing all of Bosnia Herzegovina and a "mere" 2/3 of Croatia, and organized paramilitaries for the Croatian and BH wars.
His political self-reinvention is amazing, without precedent in European politics really, but it is not very convincing.
The only political party in Serbia, I repeat, only political party in Serbia that was oppossed to the Greater Serbian ideology and wars of aggression (something the Communist unitarists and Fascists in Serbia have held in common since Tito's death; hence their continued cooperation) from the beginning out of principle (not out of convenience) was the LDP. They poll at 5%, yes, 5%.
Milosevic was overthrown not because of his ethnic cleansing and killing orgy in Kosovo (let alone the his oversight of Serb paramilitary, terrorist, and military genocides in Croatia and Bosnia Herzegovina) but because of Operation Horseshoe's failure: Serbia's fourth lost war in ten years.
The only way there will ever be any change in Serbia is if they are forced to face their shameful recent past. A post WWII Germany-like catharsis is needed in Serbia; otherwise, when the moment arises, Serbia will begin where Milosevic left off (again).
With the single most popular politican in Serbia the author of "Bijeljina is Serbia Too" (Bijeljina is in the Republic of Bosnia Herzegovina), the outlook is grim, not "interesting."
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