The war of numbers revisited
Stats watchdog Sir Michael Scholar said he didn't want to get involved in "political controversy" in the run-up to the election, but tonight he finds himself squarely in the middle of a campaign spat.
Two days ago, Chris Grayling, shadow home secretary and the man Sir Michael ticked off earlier this month for his use of crime stats, wrote to the UK Statistics Authority (UKSA) [2.24Mb PDF] to suggest that the prime minister had used a provisional immigration statistic in the course of a podcast which "will, if unchecked, damage public trust in official statistics."
Mr Grayling wasn't the only person to point out the error. Sir Andrew Green, chairman of the lobby group Migration Watch UK, also wrote to the UKSA [10.6 Kb PDF] "to make a formal complaint about the mis-use [sic] of immigration statistics".
Today, Gordon Brown received a letter from the authority [56Kb PDF] pointing out that he had not used "comparable data" when he talked about migration trends.
In the podcast last Friday, Mr Brown said this:
"Some people talk as if net inward migration is rising. In fact, it is falling - down from 237,000 in 2007, to 163,000 in 2008, to provisional figures of 147,000 last year."
The first two numbers are fine, but the third is problematic as it is not calculated in the same way as the first two. It does not include asylum-seekers or people who overstay their visa.
The prime minister made the same point in a speech today - but this time he did give all the proper caveats. He said:
"Net inward migration has also fallen. In the 12 months to December 2007, net inward migration as measured by the ONS long-term international migration series was 233,000. In the 12 months to December 2008, it was 163,000. We don't yet have the long-term migration figures for the 12 months to the end of 2009.
"However, we do have provisional figures for the 12 months to June 2009, based on the international passenger survey, which constitutes the largest part of the long-term inward migration figures. On IPS figures, in the 12 months to June 2007, net inward migration was 170,000. In the 12 months to June 2008, it was 168,000. And in the 12 months to June 2009, it was 147,000."
It might be convoluted, even a bit dull. But it is statistically sound and Sir Michael give the PM credit in his letter [56Kb PDF]:
I suspect Gordon Brown didn't mind spelling out the statistics in all their complexity. It was a sly dig at those who chose to alert the UKSA to his original slip by producing data that make a similar point.
As for Sir Michael, he may well have been content to send a warning shot across the prime ministerial bows, however muted in tone, to demonstrate he is neither partisan nor intimidated in his determination to ensure that this election campaign does not damage trust in numbers.
I'm 
~RS~q~RS~~RS~z~RS~45~RS~)
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When faced with the realities of the global economic crisis one of the data points has been immigration for many nations. In China it has become difficult to find workers for eastern China based factories as the wages have dropped to be not that different for those who decide to stay home in western China. In the US immigration is less because the jobs are fewer. These trends are not policy driven but rather driven by the realities of the gobal economic slowdown. Now if the politicians would like to standup and take credit (or more accurately blame) for the global economic crisis that would be welcomed. The petty discussions that polticians decide to make leads one to wonder if they really understand anything.
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Yers!! That also accounts for Romanians trying to take over the housing stock does it? Unluckily for our PM its the Eastern Europeans that are the problem and we can't do anything about them cos its all part of Europe. You will never know the truth.
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Funny that Sir Michael Scholar didn't rush in with his condemnations, as he did with the Conservatives crime statistics, but waited until he had seen a copy of Gordon Brown's rectifying speech - before it was delivered.
Odd that. And Scholar's words were much more muted.
By the way Mark, any chance you could hoke out some figures on the number of "asylum seekers or people who overstay their visa" since 1997 that you mention to get some idea of the unmentionable scale reached.
By the way over 4 million adult foreign nationals have received national insurance numbers to work here since 2002. (official stat)
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As far as Gordon Browns comments are concerned,the damage has already been done.I was born in Bethnal Green,East London.It is upsetting to visit now,my birth place has gone.It now resembles a place I dont know or wish to know.How many more immigrants can come to this tiny island?.I am very angry.
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I think we are all in for a suprise when Turkey joins the EU.
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Labour only needs to be imported during a labour shortage. There hasn't been a labour shortage in this country for 30 years. However New Labour love immigrants because they vote for them, the Conservatives love immigrants because they keep the working classes in their place, and the Liberal Dems love immigrants because they are self loathing whites.
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So superhero Gordon Brown got the stats wrong about immigration ? Hard to believe. Caledonian Comment
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its depressing this time is. why should immigrants be allowed to take jobs in this country when there are already 3 million people including me stuggling to find work and keep in work. depressed because every single one has turned me away that ive applied for.
i dont have gcses because i basically fled school from being a group of thugs punching bag, spent the next 3 years in college trying to get some form of qualifications and now for the last 1 1/2 years trying to find a job only to be turned away because i dont have work experience. even more depressing is the thought the job i wanted hasnt even gone to a british worker in the first place.
why are labour scared of the BNP? i can tell its fear, is it because ending all immigration would see the labour party never getting into power again because they will vote labour i have no doubt. we are overcrowded and their main aim is to make sure british people dont become a minority in britain! i dont see the big problem there, i dont see the racism issue there either. i think calling them racist is an excuse.
ive seen their policies they aint even racist. they just value the british majority more than any minority wanting to protect them more. should be be allowing millionns of immigrants to come here during a war with another country????
critical terror threat yet the doors are open? whats to stop a member of alqueda randomly coming in this country, posing as an afghan civilian plotting to blow up thousands of british people in a shopping centre? exactly! nothing at the moment... which is why more people favour the bnp policies on immigration - its not just the workplace and general popluation but also the security and safety of the people of this country!
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Mr Brown admits that he "misused" the immigration figures. So he didn't tell lies then? So that's OK.
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I agree with Framer, and isn't a bit rich that Mark Easton ranted and raved about the Tories use of crime statistics but now no headlines of labour's manipulation of the statistics? When can we expect a headline of "Brown misleads the voters with phoney figures" ? I suspect we will be waiting a long time?
I think the quota system is exactly what most UK citizens want, an absolute limit on immigration before the open door policies of Labour causes further harm. If Labour persist then the rise of the radical neo nazi groups such as the National Front will gain in strength as a result and that is a terrible prospect.
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I always find it worrying when a government with massive resources cannot organise itself to provide basic data about who comes in and out of the country and who is working here and who is not.
It makes a mockery of the idea of national security and of all the fuss about ID cards and makes an adverse social comment about the efficiency and effectiveness of the government.
The situation has resulted from a lot of poorly thoughout policy.One part of it is the idea that EU workers can work anywhere in the EU but most end up here because we have no policy of control.We need economic migrants because many of our 2 million unemployed do not have the skills to do the available jobs which says a lot about our education system, the lack of apprenticeships and about the way we organise our school to work links.
The focus about getting a job which meets the needs of society has been lost resulting in overtraining of staff in some areas e.g. media studies and undertraining in others e.g. science, medicine etc.
We are in the mess we are in because our leaders lack the capacity to organise things in a systematic and practical way.As a result we have a situation that is out of control because the government has no overall plan and has not put national controls in place.The sooner they do that the better off we will all be.
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Why oh why do so many want to come to this little island! Is it because those who can exploit them to their own gains aka the already greedy rich and wealthy see another opportunity! Simply because the indigenous population can't afford to live on these incomes and batton down the hatches via the welfare state. Its all about exploitation always has been
and there's plenty more arriving each day! I'm sure there are those on the fringe who will use this opportunity for their own form of exploitation........easy soundbite varieties.
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Gosh, I had thought Gordon's strength was that he was on top of all the figures.
Now he's been caught out deliberately misleading us over the immigration statistics, following his rather absurd admission of 'mistakes' in the figures he quoted at the Chlicot enquiry over defence spending at a time when we were fight two wars and he was Chancellor.
If he can't get simple statistics right, why should we trust on anything?
And, Mark, if I may say so, this blog lacks the vim of those others made against the Tories, even though they were later backed up by the House of Commons Library. Agree with those who comment this is poor attempt to look balanced therefore!
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Playing a numbers game doesn't go anywhere, does it Messrs Brown, Grayling, and Easton? If the net immigration to the UK was only 100 in a year, and they all got preferential treatment on a council waiting list and all else that goes with it, then 100 "indigenous" people have to wait longer for housing and maybe other services too.
The numbers are meaningless. It is what goes with them that has the meaning. And, BTW, I have every support for migrant workers seeking a better life in the UK.
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Trying to pull the wool over our eyes by misguided immigration figures has got to be the most damaging piece of electioneering yet.
Using the Australian points system is also misguided.
As anyone knows getting into Australia takes about three years after you have proved that you can be self sufficient for a year and after having the most stringent health checks and criminal record checks.
Numbers are then gauged on the jobs they need to fill.
I see no signs of such a system here. So more waffle by those trying to deceive.
I no longer see what advantage all this immigration is achieving apart from depressing wages keeping others unemployed for long periods and a further strain on housing health and schools.
Perhaps someone can convince me and the rest of the population that this isn't the case.
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Whilst the topic of immigration is doubtless one that should be debated in a calm and rational manner, it rarely is. It is sad fact that the need for a scapegoat in difficult economic times will bring individuals out of the woodwork who delight reducing any and all arguments to one of "us and them". The rise of people who would define themselves in a nationalist mould is a an unwelcome side effect of the state of the economy and a looming general election. Whatever the specifics of Mr Brown's "error", the essence of his argument is sound, and anything that diffuses the unwelcome sound and fury of BNP politics (and let's not mince words, the Conservatives have no problem ambulance chasing BNP rhetoric if they think it will afford them electoral advantage) is a necessary antidote to such poisonous spite and bile.
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After the election I think the BBC's role in playing down the problems of mass immigration need to be examined.
The BBC's pro immigration, pro EU attitude, has been a strong feature of the last 13 years.
Admittedly its too late to change anything - we are where we are - but how we got there without a whimper from the public is a lesson in democracy and media partiality.
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"Brown misleads the voters with phoney figures"
Even after the Right Hon Gordon Brown has been found out (again), there still remains blatant dishonesty in his pronouncement:
He uses only NETT migration figures. This tells us the global increase in the UK population due to registered trans-border people movement.
1. It makes no statement on illegal migration
2. It makes no statement on dependents, especially minors
3. It does not segregate EU (in his figures?) and non-EU migrants
4. It does not give ABSOLUTE numbers of people movements in and out.
The last of these is important to me, as an emigrant.
With high emigration, the GROSS number of immigrants entering the country in 2009 could be (eg) double that of 2007, even though the NETT number might be less.
A further, and highly salient, issue relates to skills lost –v- skills gained through migration. It is not just an issue of old people emigrate and young people immigrate.
If the LOSS is predominantly professional, and the GAIN is predominantly artisanal, then the scope of the UK to remain globally competitive is seriously diminished - by Government practice, if not by policy.
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Paul at 16
I think your comments concerning the Conservative Party are a disgrace.
This is exactly the type of racist name throwing that prevents a proper debate around immigration in this country.
If anything, for the record, it is Labour who have been ambulance chasing the BNP on this issue, e.g. the sudden protestations from Ministers around the working class feeling left out despite having 'legitimate concerns' and how the Government needed to address this following Labour's drubbing at last year's elections. See Guardian article below from last year as just one example:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2009/nov/02/alan-johnson-immigration
It is Labour who have moved to the right on this issue, ambulance chasing the BNP as you put it, not the Conservatives.
The Conservative policy has always been consistent and clear: supportive of immigration, but within limits to prevent public services, roads, etc. becoming swamped.
I repeat, your cheap anti-Conservative comments are wholly unfair and wrong. Look to the Labour Party, their policies and their recent statements on immigration as above: that is where your concerns (and invective) should lie.
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When will they ever learn? This time it is Labour and immigration, last time it was the Tories and crime. They are all at it!
These people are consumate dissembellers who would struggle to understand the truth in numbers even if they came eye to eye with it.
Given such weakness and incompetence no wonder they cannot organise their expenses claims? Strange that However, why is it such claims are always to the favour of the politicos?
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I had to laugh when I read this article yesterday. It says one of two things - either Gordon Brown was trying to pull a fast one and got caught, or he's careless and didn't read the report thoroughly ahead of time.
Approaching a general election he'll be desperate for any good news and may have seen the lower figure and thought "fantastic, finally something is going my way".
The cynic in me though thinks this was always intended as a bit of spin pre-election and seriously backfired, and unlike some of the other tit-for-tat stuff Cameron has thrown at Brown, this one actually was Brown's fault.
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Who was it who said "There are lies, damn lies and then there are statistics". Add to this "and politicians".
There is an increasingly louder rumble of disquiet in this country and beware the politician who ignores it.
UKIP have two policies that will start to solve the problem; a, pull out of Europe = thereby getting rid of the Rumanians, Poles and every other European who is screwing us, and b. A 5 year freeze on other immigration (except in cases where the national interest as served, e.g. skills shortages).
Solution, simple - vote UKIP.
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Further to my earlier comment. There also needs to be an inquiry into what the politicians term "Net Migration". What this means in essence is that if 50,000 indigenous whites leave this country, and 50,000 non indigenous peoples arrive in the country - then, according to the politicians all is well as Net Migration is in balance.
This of course takes no consideration in the change in demographics of the country. Add this to the increase in birthrate amongst immigrants compared to the indigenous population means we have already lit the fuse and are just waiting for the bomb to go off!!
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In response to bluntjeremy at 19, I would offer these three news stories found using "Tories" + "immigration" on the first couple of page of a Google search.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/new-row-over-tory-immigration-leaflet-399150.html
http://www.romfordrecorder.co.uk/content/havering/recorder/news/story.aspx?brand=RECOnline&category=newsRomford&tBrand=northlondon24&tCategory=newsromford&itemid=WeED05%20Mar%202010%2012%3A09%3A42%3A090
http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2010/feb/28/tory-immigration-row.
I'm all for a sane and rational debate, and an avoidance of tit-for-tat name calling - it benefits nobody. What I am more worried about is what the official "leader" of any group might say, against what the body politic attached to that mouthpiece might really think & believe. My observation merely reflected what seems to be the case in terms of "what is said" over "what is meant" for one particular group - especially as the leader of that group would be our new Prime Minister. [Unsuitable/Broken URL removed by Moderator]
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12. At 07:57am on 01 Apr 2010, redrobb wrote:
Why oh why do so many want to come to this little island! Is it because those who can exploit them to their own gains aka the already greedy rich and wealthy see another opportunity! Simply because the indigenous population can't afford to live on these incomes and batton down the hatches via the welfare state. Its all about exploitation always has been
and there's plenty more arriving each day! I'm sure there are those on the fringe who will use this opportunity for their own form of exploitation........easy soundbite varieties.
answering that comment is as easy as 3 words: national health service!
would you choose not to migrate to a country that has the biggest loopholes in the law on mass immigration, the ability to avoid paying tax, the pound being worth hundreds in their homeland and the greatest health care service on the planet?
no i didnt think so!
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for starters you lot need to stop using national news papers as refrences and use party polices on their websites which can be googled.
fact is national newspapers all across the country bend the truth and take parts of a conversation out that looks appealing and uses it to their advantages. ultimately they can sway your vote anyway they want because your gullable enough to believe whatever sentence they pick out of a paragraph and slot into place on an article can completely different than the original intention no offence. remember tories were involved in expenses too but the papers stopped writing about it because they WANT you to vote tory. well, the sun does at least.
i dont believe the media word for word only whats there in black and white on the party's sites. i often check to see if parts of televised reports are cut out deliberately lol.
anyway concerning tory i dont trust them since thatcher, are they correcting the VAT she created? no! labour are trying to copy tory so if u dont like that how can you like tory? and clegg dont seem to have the backbone to stand up and be counted for as a major party leader so god knows how his gonna stand up and be heard as a prime minister lol.
and thats why i might not vote cus it will be BNP or UKIP and i dont want to seem racist..
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i think the national insurance increase was actually fair to be honest. id rather have to pay more to get this country out of its massive debt quicker than be really selfish by loading the tax increases on my children or grandchildren in the future.
it needs to be sorted as soon as possible and as its our generations fault so we should foot the bill and not leave it to our descendants in the near future... some thigns we dont like will happen inevitably but leaving it and charging the next generation etc for it is being pure selfish i think
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Paul
Your say in your latest blog,
'I'm all for a sane and rational debate, and an avoidance of tit-for-tat name calling,'
having previously said in your first blog,
'let's not mince words, the Conservatives have no problem ambulance chasing BNP rhetoric.'
I think most people would agree that those two quotes are totally contradictory. Typical Labour rubbish and spin!
Then you say, refering to the Conservative Party,
'What I am more worried about is what the official "leader" of any group might say, against what the body politic attached to that mouthpiece might really think & believe.'
What you appear to be trying to imply is all the people who vote Tory are racist and anti-immigrant like the BNP, even if the leadership says it isn't.
Your pure spleen and hatred of anybody who votes Conservative blinkers your view of reality; fortunately, your comments are so absurd, and made against so many people as to be demonstrably absurd, that they can be safely dismissed.
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Statisticians can make numbers say what they want them to say,interpretation is the key.Gordon Brown seems unable to make statements of any veracity without dressing the facts up in his own inimitable way.It is interesting to note that the cost of the immigrations, he mentions is not mentioned.All the talk of cuts and savings,why not hold a moratorium on immigration policy,suspending all immigration while so doing and see just how much we will save,it will be double figure millions per annum,that much we already know.If we were to pull out of Iraq,we would save billions,without a doubt,so,why do we not do it?..Because the oil that Iraq is sitting on is one 5th of the worlds reserve,and the Americans would not let us have a share of their extremely lucrative oil and reconstruction "contracts" gained through the prosecution of the war in Iraq.I digress,the figures in dispute clearly demonstrate the disparity between the reality of the mass immigration figures and the story that Gordon wants to tell us.At present we are lucky that there are any statistics available,because the self-elected EU quangocrats have told us we are not allowed to count and publish the numbers of immigrants entering Britain.Do you wonder why?How can we have "community cohesion" when there are a plethora of "communities" living in the same places,all with their own cultural agendas.The disparity between cultural groups in any given "community"is greater than it has ever been,so how do we "come together" when most distinct cultural groups cannot agree and cannot share the same vision for their "community"There is no integration,we just live in the same postcode area.This is why Brown is so economical with the truth,the truth is rather disquieting,to say the least.But,large numbers of immigrants voted for those who let them in and gave them housing,welfare,medical care,schooling,jobs,tax exemptions,tax breaks etc.so I guess that makes it alright then..the numbers,when quoted fully and accurately,tell a different story to the one that Gordon is spinning..You see ,politicians do not care who they preside over,just as long as they have someone to tell their stories to,someone to tax,someone to enact draconian laws against,someone to dumb down year after year..Someone who works and produces wealth for the politician to feed off,like some latter-day economic vampire.As for the "communities" that they "serve"They prefer if those communities are completely polarised because it makes it easier to control those who are divided..They can play the big hero,championing ethnic difference because it enables them to pull the wool over more peoples eyes than ever before,if we say anything in protest then everyone just joins in the accusatory chant of "racist"A chorus of well trained voices toeing the line.What a state of affairs,when our national psyche is so overwhelmed by political ideology that we live in moral fear of the approbation of all those around us,telling us that we are xenophobes,Islamaphobes,homophobes and racists.Free speech is under threat because of this ever-increasing sense that one cannot mention that the emperors new clothes do not exist,lying by omission is the new "truth"Gordon's example is the norm in politics,where honesty and its depth,are taken as an index of stupidity,They do not think we can either cope with or understand the complexities of the political zeitgeist,patronising and basically dishonest,that is Gordons trademark.
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What will we,and the politicians, do, when there is no nation?When there is just a human melting pot of disparity,mistrust and ignorance masquerading as a "society"Can we actually evolve as empathic,intelligent,caring human beings?Will we ever learn foresight?This nation state is almost gone,by the time I am an old man,it will be gone.There is no room for doubt,all the signs of cultural and ethnic suicide/genocide are here,we have fewer children than any of our replacing populations,more of us leave every year,more of our replacements arrive every year,the maths is easy..So,when this changeover peaks,the politicians will celebrate..They will no longer have to pretend to be the servants of the people..Right or Left wing,it makes no difference..Both have become extremist because of the extreme polarisation of both sides of the political divide,this is in their interest..A truly divided population is a lot easier to control and to rip-off.A private police force,all transport in private hands,banks owned by the state,"Communities" fending for themselves,state funding of public works/services eroded to "grants" "awarded" to "deserving" "communities",NHS replaced by private "health providers" as an answer to the cataclysmic failure that is/was PFI,Media outlets and content owned and controlled by a few individuals/families/governments..Do any of you recognise any of this?Does it make you wonder just what the sayings of Chairman Brown are representative of?What the agenda really is?ALL the politicians are doing is waving one hand,which we watch avidly,while with the other hand they continue with their deceptions,they are conjurors,illusionists,charlatans and fakes..The Numbers Dont Add Up...They never did and they never will..Ask the BBC,They've had more than enough hassles with politicians over the years..So Gordon Brown,and the rest of them,could not tell the truth even if they wanted to..Do I need to go any further?..
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Having people from other countries come here and compete for jobs with the indigenous population may cause some discomfort...
...but it certainly beats being invaded, raped, murdered, imprisoned, enslaved, having a puppet government installed so your natural resources and wealth can be stolen. The UK became a wealthy world power by these means over the course of hundreds of years.
Suck it up, you have it easy.
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Tbhang....All governments are puppets of vested interest...All...I also refuse to feel guilty for what someone did before I(or you for that matter)was born.The British Empire,for all its many faults,was the most benign and empowering of all in the end.Otherwise the Commonwealth would not have existed,and "people from other countries" would not have volunteered in their hundreds of thousands to join the British army,navy and air force.They certainly would not have then come here in their millions,if we were such awful people.How many "people from other countries" are British passport holders?How many are proud and pleased at obtaining such a valuable item? Also.."having it easy" is a relative experience,relative to expectations,relative to previous experience..would you prefer that I had the credentials of an asylum seeker?Would that give me more credibility in your eyes?Would it render my statements more acceptable?And if I was not British?Would that be somehow better in your estimation?If I was a Honduran or a Lithuanian,complaining about the same things,would you so casually attempt to belittle my statements then?Or would you fear being tagged a racist for displaying such obvious intolerance?We are not ALL racist monsters,some of us are just less afraid of confronting bias where we find it.I hope that puts you in no doubt as to my reasoning and general disposition.Though I realise that you may not accept my argument,I can live with that....As for "sucking it up",You make it obvious that you lack the vocabulary to engage in an adult debate without resorting to insulting the person with whom you are conversing,if they do not agree with your own analysis.Please refrain from insulting people as it lowers the tone of the debate to the Jeremy Kyle level of discourse.It can be bad enough.To imply as well,that you know the circumstances of my entire life so far is not only ludicrous but dishonest,you do not know me,or anything about me so I suggest you pick on someone else....I will remain a mystery to you as you will to me...Disagree by all means,but be civil even though it may be a burden to you,it really is the way to debate.
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The headline made me think someone had noted the way YouGov is campaigning for the Conservative Party and had expressed distrust of its opinion polls for that reason.
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The statement that no politician,except those from the extreme right,will make regarding immigration is this;All across Europe and North America and Canada,The Birth-rate of those descended from Indigenous European peoples is experiencing its worst decline in recorded history.In Europe its the same story,this,coupled with uncontrolled,unregulated,uncounted immigration of non-European,non-white peoples means that,worldwide,white populations are in terminal decline.Soon European and European descended peoples will be minorities in every country with any white populations.The Club of Rome has supplied all the necessary data regarding falling birth-rates for caucasians,as well as the demographics for immigrant populations.Based on the figures produced by the Club of Rome(Limits to Growth)The worldwide caucasian population will have passed the point of possible recovery by the year 2050(If current trends continue)This is a real "hot potato" in political terms,untouchable,something impossible for any politician who wants elected to discuss or even admit they know about. This is an issue that must be resolved before its too late,before it becomes a matter for historians.If ALL cultures and ALL ethnic populations are to survive,then we must ensure that they are given equal chance to do so.The alternative is that the human race ends up as one homogenous mass,with no "diversity" left,no distinct cultures or ethnic variations,all such "individual" traits destroyed by the short-sighted social-engineering policy that is "multiculturalism"This is no racist,ultra-nationalist rant,I have many,many non-white friends and neighbours.This is concern that indigenous populations,worldwide have legitimate anxieties over,Its not just white people,we are dying out,but native peoples worldwide are being "assimilated" into globalist culture,with no regard for cultural and ethnic preservation.Don't expect to hear anything on this topic anytime soon,or ever.....
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