Map of the Week: Recession cuts crime?
The quarterly blind feeding-frenzy on crime stats is in full-flow.
It is a pretty unedifying sight - and uniquely British. No other country spends so much time, effort and money collecting data on crime.
No other country has so many journalists detailed to trawl the data for evidence of social chaos. No other country gets fed more alarming nonsense as a result, I suspect.
Many of the papers today are reporting a "recession fuelled crime-wave". I wonder if some wrote the story before they saw the figures.
It is a funny sort of crime wave that sees total recorded crime in England and Wales down 5% in a year and people's experience of crime stable. Not so much a "wave" as a slowly-draining mill-pond.
The figures, we are told, contain powerful evidence of a rise in property crime - particularly burglary.
Well, recorded burglary from people's houses in England and Wales did go up. There were 3,700 more incidents year on year - 10 more burglaries every day. A 1% rise.
But hold on. Recorded burglary from other buildings (offices, factories, shops etc) went down by 6,050 incidents - 16 fewer burglaries every day. A 2% fall. (Do let me know if you find that figure in your newspaper.)
What sort of burglar is this recession creating? The kind, apparently, that is driven to break into domestic property more but commercial property less.
Our credit-crunched villain is also less prone to nick a car or something from it. But more likely to take someone's bike, purse or indulge in a bit of shoplifting.
I am sorry - this is getting absurd. Today's crime stats offer a level of detail and complexity which is in danger of confusing rather than clarifying what is happening in our society.
Journalists plunge into the ocean of data and triumphantly emerge, like free-diving oyster fishermen, clutching some statistical pearl - a crime category where the figures show a year on year increase.
How about this one? "Theft of mail" up 22%. Yup, it is true. (But don't mention that theft of mail is actually down 83% from where it was in 2004.)
It is the trends we need to be interested in and the trends are clear. Crime has been falling for over a decade and is currently stable. No time for complacency. Still unacceptably high. But the recession has not, yet, fuelled a change in direction.
What it may have done, though, is helped push violent crime down. As I suggested last September if the downturn means young people have got less cash to spend on large amounts of alcohol on a Friday and Saturday night, the effect might be to reduce drunken disorder and violence.
Today's figures show almost 60,000 fewer violent offences recorded by police year on year. I know, I know - you don't believe it. But when you ask lots of people about their experience of violent crime, (46,000 rather than that bloke in the dry cleaners) the number saying they had been a victim in the previous year is at its lowest level since 1981, 4% down on last year.
The Home Office reckons that 45% of people who commit violence are affected by alcohol - so it is not daft to suggest there might be a link. Year on year, recorded violence is down around 6% and alcohol consumption is said to be down around 3% [54Kb PDF].
One needs to be careful in suggesting straight cause and effect because violence has been falling since the mid-nineties and alcohol consumption rose for much of that time. But logic surely suggests that if too much booze makes people more violent, slightly less booze might make people less violent.
Finally, if you haven't found it already, you might want to look at the interactive Home Office recorded crime map.
You can see where your neighbourhood fits in compared with all kinds of crime in the rest of England and Wales.
I suspect it may actually be a statistical blip of some kind, but I couldn't help but notice that the map shows the risk of crime in Westminster is virtually off the scale. I wonder why that is?
Graphs above from the Home Office Statistical Bulletin Crime in England and Wales 2008/09 Volume 1 [1.15Mb PDF]
I'm 
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Comments
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Unfortunately the presentation of the Home Offics statistics is less than perfect.
Try placing the figures in order of 'Count' and you will find that 1,017 falls somewhere between 101 and 102 !!
I think someone forgot to tell the Home Office computer how numbers work!
Ashill
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Sorry Mark you dont live in the real world where there are no police officers and reporting crime is a waste of time as officers are unavailable. Many simply dont bother these days. We dont have any officers out there only a few bumped up by special constables..
The figures are massaged IE
The entire number of officers including specials in a 24 hour day may be nine that means only three on duty at any one time provided no sickness or holiday and then added in to every figure are the counties single firearm unit or rapid response unit. So a huge town and villages may only have a single proper officer on duty but the figures actually show about twenty. Fiddles and lies abound but I know this much I attended a neighbourhood watch meeting and was astounded at the anger within our community at those without a voice suffering in lawless britain. The papers reflect what you dont know in the growing rich and increasing poor regions of the EU.
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Very revealing, Mark. Do detection rates rise when crime is falling? Does the penal system stats show a decrease in re-offending?
Do the Crime Stats allow for changes in the Methodology of logging crime since 1981? We should be told.
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Mark,
Do you have some kind of "death wish"? Unemployment is now nearly 3 million. Do you want to join us? Some of us, well, at least I have been lamenting the state of journalism in this country for many years. Everyday all kinds of statistics are released. But it is always the media and especially the TV tax-funded BBC that hypes 1 or 2 aspects of these statistics. Why? Simply because that's what the media in this country do. I can understand the newspapers doing it - they need to sell their papers to survive. But why does the BBC which is assured of inflation-busting TV tax increases indulge in this? Why does J.Paxman ask the same question 14 times? Why does R.Peston get accused of causing the Northern Rock run? Why does F.Walsh talk about swine flu when Mexico has already said that the death rates from swine flu are similar to seasonal flu death rates? It is all because that's what the BBC do. The alternative would be to not talk about it. So, here is a simple challenge for you. Don't start another blog topic for a month. Are you up for it?
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The British Crime Survey does not collect data from people under 16. So all those incidences of children being mugged for their mobile phones or trainers on their way home from school, are not being reflected.
There is also an enormous hole in the figures related to cyber crime. The government has told us not to report these to the police but instead to our bank. The bank may or may not tell the police, either because they don't want to admit their systems are insecure or because, frankly, the police's capability in this area is truly pathetic. If they do tell the police, thousands of individual cases of theft are recorded as one crime as they are reported together.
Why would criminals want to go out and shin up drainpipes on a cold, wet night in February, when they could stay at home in front of their computer, with a lager and a take-away pizza, committing cyber crime to their heart's content with virtually no chance of being caught?
Until the issue of cyber crime is properly addressed, any claim that crime is on the decrease is a cynical lie.
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While over-interpretation of the detailed stats is obviously a problem, it is also always hard to spot a turning point.
The overall and sectional stats seemed to have started falling around 1995. This is more than a deacde ago. Indeed it is before Labour was in government.
Funnily enough it coincides with the end of the recession post-ERM exit, and the long period of growth that became the Brown Boom.
As growth faltered in 2007 and onwards the decline in crime seems to have ended. It is almost impossible to tell if you are at a turning point while it is happening, so we can't be sure, but the picture over the last 15 years is consistent with a story that says crime rate changes are driven by the economic cycle.
Which is not to say that the details of the stats were not abused, but perhaps the journalists were using inappropriate illustrations of the correct headline.
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Five comments, five people moaning about the stats. I'll wager they wouldn't have been moaning had the stats shown a rise in crime because then of course the stats would have to be perfectly accurate and reflect a failing justice system or government or whoever the poster wishes to criticise. Whether the stats are a good or a bad indicator of actual crime levels, by this measure crime has fallen. You can't jump on the evidence when the rate goes up and then rubbish it when it goes down. It might sell newspapers and allow people to be indignant with rage but it simply isn't true that the moral fibre of our country is in irreperable decay. I'm sorry folks, but whatever your agenda, this is GOOD news. Funnily enough all our kids haven't turned into knife-wielding maniacs void of humanity and compassion. Find something else to satisfy your urges and vehemently complain about. Stop believing the gutter press.
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Mark Easton.
"No other country spends so much time, effort and money collecting data on crime. No other country has so many journalists detailed to trawl the data for evidence of social chaos."
not many countries in the world (and I think none in Europe) has as many citizens in prison as we do.
"The Home Office reckons that 45% of people who commit violence are affected by alcohol.."
thank you for stating this explicitly and without ambiguity; since I, like apparently Ashill and Dan6713 above, believe the government's data collection needs stricter QA and that the stats have been "massaged" before publication, I suspect that the real percentage is higher still.
(finally, can't resist: are you reading this LippyLippo?)
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I think rather the types of crime are changing dog stealing has rocketed by us shoplifting is on the rise, garden plants and fixtures going missing lots of small low level crimes rather than anything major. From the faces of the people involved this prob has to do with the sudden rise in the price of cannabis 5 pound on an eighth of an ounce (180-200 per ounce) so the motivation locally seems to be money rather than violent behaviour.
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What is the conviction rate and times in reflection to the drop in crime taking that a certain proportion of the population at any one time will be involved in crime and the different natures of crime.
IE several violent gangs get mass convictions in 2001 sentences range for members from 2 years to 15 years, these people then stream back on to the streets as the sentence times come to an end thus returning a possible problem back into society. Are there figures by the type of criminal percentage behind bars to work out future crime trends on prison population?
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The BBC propoaganda machine rolled out again.... In the real world - some measure of the utter corruption of Govt crime figures can be gauged by an excellent book by David Fraser, called a Land Fit for Criminals. Unlike Mr Easton, who cobbled together a few highly selected and misleading charts from a Government propoganda machine, Fraser spent 30 years researching crime, suggesting real crime ran 5-6 times higher that that reported. Civitas published a report in 2002 showing, even then, that actual crime was about 4 times higher than that recorded (which totalled about 60m crimes a year). The real comparison ought to be made then with other countries: Nationalmaster stats show we are the 6th worst country in the world, with figures about 250% higher than the global average. Lets also not forget the crimes of vandalism, cyber crime drugs abuse probably not reported here. (Incidentally, am I alone in finding this BBC propogation of Government distortion utterly shameful?
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Mark
Despite your valiant efforts this is an argument you will not win. I know; I've tried for years, and given up. The newspapers (and the rest of the BBC) have already decided what the story is. Crime stats are trustworthy when crime is going up, massaged propaganda when it is going down.
In the words of Paul Simon: "A man hears what he want to hear and disregards the rest..."
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Angryscitizen2 - the 6th worst country in the world? Who is above us - Pakistan? South Africa? Haiti? Are you utterly insane?
You can argue the detail of the stats all you want, if you are dumbed down enough to believe the read the likes of the London press you deserve the frame of mind you have been whipped into. The British crime survey is a significantly better guide than the amoral rants-to-order of the sort of people who work in journalism.
If unrecorded crime is that bad there wouldn't be a single insurance company left in business or alternatively one of us who could afford the premiums. Buffoon.
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As usual given enough time any set of statistics can be used to prove black is white.
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For all those posters who seem to believe the crime stats, I have to reiterate that cyber crime is massively under-reported. Some interesting thoughts here:
http://www.pcpro.co.uk/news/262246/ecrime-cops-make-21-convictions-in-three-years.html
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Mark, thank you for the first and ONLY sensible commentary on the crime stats that I have read today! Including the rest of the BBC.
What is it about the media, where they will always find the negative angle on a story?
The real news story today is that crime has gone down. You would never believe it if you read some of the headlines:
"Credit crunch Crime Wave" The Daily Mail.
Some of the commenters above have failed to realise that these stats are not based on police data, but what the public say (British Crime Survey).
I wonder why the fear of crime is greater than the reality in the UK?
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How was the theft by the bankers and investment firms recorded? Apparently about a trillion or so is missing from individual accounts, having been stolen by the bankers and financial services industry. Could you clarify where this theft shows up? Is this just one big theft or does each individual who have their account diminished count? Apparently, when Johnny breaks into my house and steals something, he goes to jail but if my banker sends me a notice that 30% of my retirement account is missing because of his misdeeds, that is all that will happen. If I were an embeseler in prison I would ask for review as the rules have been changed.
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mark, excellent article. good sense at last. More please
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As a lawyer working in the crown court day in and day out, I can believe these figures to an extent. They shouldn't be taken as any vindication of government policy. Burglary rates fell dramatically in the mid - 1990's for two reasons:
a. the increased use of home security - burglar alarms, security locks etc. Walk down any street, every house has them;
b. the introduction of minimum sentences of three years for third strike burglars. this meant that they were locked up for longer than they had been previously - or at least they were until David Blunkett realised that it was expensive to fill prisons and so released tham after serving a quarter rather than a half of their sentences on the basis that their crimes were non-violent (he also extended this to drug dealers)
Violent crime is down because it is less recorded. If the victim is incoherent through drunk, there is no report. If there is no report, there is no crime and the police are doing their job - according to their targets.
Detection rates are up because the police now have the option of fixed penalty notices. Get someone who has committed an offence of minor violence, tell them if they admit it they can have an instant £80 fine and, voila they admit and and are free to go. If they don't pay the fine there is very little chance of being chased up.
The fact that shoplifting is up dramatically is nothing to do with the recession. It is because about 15 months ago it was effectively decriminalised. Before, if you were caught shoplifting, you were arrested, charged, went before a court - got a record and probably saw your name in the local papers. Now you get a fixed penalty notice in whatever name you give - the police record it as a detection and everyone is happy. Criminals have always worked by balancing risk and reward - shoplifting is a low risk crime as is cyber crime. Its made low risk because no-one cares.
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@ No.19 Desperately Sad...
"Violent crime is down because it is less recorded. If the victim is incoherent through drunk, there is no report. If there is no report, there is no crime and the police are doing their job - according to their targets."
But - this can't be true can it? Nothing has changed in the way figures are collated and reported so assuming a percentage of crimes go unreported logically the proportion must remain constant over time. Thus, a drop in the reported number means a drop in the actual instances. A failure to record every instance does not make a decline in reports untrue.
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Thank you for a sensible comment on the statistics. A shame that the BBC 10 O'clock news gave a misleading review of the figures. Do your colleagues not read your blog?
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#20 - you beat me to it regarding unreported crime being proportionate to reported crime. Spot on.
It is very sad that the media always wants to ensure we are scared of something. Like women believing they will get raped if they walk home alone, and like parents who are worried there is a paedophile lurking around every corner. The media trades on fear but it is unrealistic and usually based on a high profile case that makes the headlines and then feeds the fear further. Like #20 and others have said, this survey is the same every year so if the figures have gone down it can only be a good thing.
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Mods, I'm still waiting for your email on why my earlier post has been removed. Mr. Easton made a comment about the media coverage of the crime stats. All I did was respond to his comments. Either explain why the post has been referred or post it. Or if you are censoring comments that criticise the BBC, then say so.
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I would echo the sentiments here about recorded crime - how much do we really now through the 'official' figures
I don't particularly believe we're getting worse or anything, but people do seem to report less and if anything that leads me to believe crime isn't going up...but I can't really say its going down either
Best to stick to surveys of people's experience of crime, which makes all those people who say how bad crime is look like idiots
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May I respond to the bashing I got from #13?
I must clarify: You deem me "insane" for (a) not trusting a picture taken from three rather arbitrary trendlines, within a vastly complex field, quoted at me by the BBC, about whom reports by its own workers testify to its political persuasion; (b) trusting more in a range of evidence from reports over the past decades and more. Alas, I didnt use the "London press", as you accuse....(which I agree often stirs up fears when what is really needed is calm, rational reflection on the dynamics of a huge problem.)
And it is on this basis that the stats presenting Britain as the 6th worst country (crime per capita basis) in the world - were "insanely" - plucked from a database of sources including the CIA World Factbook, UN, and OECD. And, as I say, my madness also stemmed from placing some faith in a report that represented 30 years of a man's life, ahead of a source from an organisation with clear vested interests.
The desparate desire from you & some of these posts to believe crime in an urban myth must be comforting. It explains the hysteria. The usual leftist tactic, of attacking an opponent with name-calling and a pretence of superiority in lieu of substance, is also noted.
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Very lucid and convincing, as always...in which case, why are the BBC still flagging up the rise in domestic burglary as the headline statistic in their bulletins? How much influence do you have over the people who write the bulletins?
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Finally, thank god, a journalist who looks at facts rather than sales figures. I live in Sheffield on the edge of a fairly rough area, and guess what, I rarely see anything bad. The odd motorbike without a number plate, a gang of assorted yoofs who have nowhere else to go and , oh my god, unmarked but obvious police vehicles. Do I live on a different planet.
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Mark is Easton is so funny. Yeah certain crime is down but what about wholesale crime like bankrupting world economies. Its just crime that's not reported because the government's doing it.
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Mark: yours is a sane voice that I'm afraid will be totally ignored by most people. I mean, all the people claiming the government are massaging the figures, and crime is actually higher - where on earth do you get your data from then to know that crime is higher? There's no other data but the governments. It's sheer paranoid, conspiratorial nonsense. Is it so hard to believe that of the hundreds of tasks the government has to do, it might actually not mess one up?
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Having read the blog and comments it seems simple. You either believe that the media are there to make us fearful and disbelieving of the stats or that the stats are massaged to be favourable to the government by the government. Thanks God that in this response at least one seems balanced by the other, I'm slightly restored of my faith in this countrys population that for every media believing luddite that wants to own in some respect their element of the "Recession Fuelled Crime Wave" there is at least one person who accepts that the stats are likely correct but interpretted with caution and dispassion.
I do not live in fear of crime, terrorism, recession, peadophiles, bankers, the government or the alleged impartial reporting of the BBC. Instead I live in the reality of being able to read, interpret and conclude from my own review of the government stats. And it is warming to know that for once I don't feel alone and that there are those other few out there that are prone to do the same, not believe the government or media spin but digest the data themselves and make an informed conclusion. Thanks for a partial restoration or my faith in the British public (it's still only partial as the Afghan conflict kit debate seems heavily skewed to "Our boys have no kit" despite the army saying "we've never had better / more kit").
Mark: Excellent article. Impartial, direct and factually based. And no hype, just base data. Thanks :-)
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Yes, I found the two styles of reporting interesting - headlines of 'murders down' vs headlines of 'burglaries up'
Which sells more papers? Personally I find 'murders down' more striking.
Here's another side to it. At one time crime seemed to be on an inevitable steady climb. Now it's not. At the same time the government has adopted a policy of locking up more criminals (prison population now at a record high, 80,000+ compared with 60,000+ when they came into office). Criminals in jail up: crime down. Coincidence?
The same 'coincidence' seemed to happen in New York under Guiliani, where muder rates fell as prison populations climbed.
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Actually if your car is stolen or if expensive things are stolen from it your are likely to report (by email?) ditto if you are burgled if you want to make an insurance claim (overstating the claim is fraud but you are unlikely to be detected.). If you are mugged you may well not report it, and even if you are injured is is best to call the paramedics who WILL come, ditto for injury only violence. If you do see a fight call the cops but remember to say there are lots of people and you fear the trouble will spread.
The police are good at 'catching criminals', individuals and groups who actually plan and committ several crimes. Every Chief Constable can promise to do this. Where they are rarely effective is in controlling 'disorder' and 'anti social behaviour' though their presence (even if 'invisable' as one of the earlier commenters remarked) is effective in reducing the incidence. Manchester is experimenting with more 'special constables' to do this.
Yes the police don't 'do fraud' so I have done my own investigations in two cases, one where I was satisfied that the organisations prevention squad was on the job, knew who done it and mounted legal action. I was unlucky with BT whose FOI obtained papers showed a complete muddle.
Prevention is of course better than reports, so if you left the window open or the car unlocked..... But if your local bar/club/supermarket encourages patrons to get pissed you can do very little (it's illegal but is really commercial anti social behaviour)
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Mark
As a frequent visitor to the UK I am alway struck by the obsession with crime. Does anyone have a view as to why you are so obsessed? It really does seem to be part of the culture, is it Robin Hood as folk a hero maybe?
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#33
There are a number of reasons we are obsessed with crime in my view.
The national obsession with consumerism and money is one, if you have stuff you are more afraid of being relieved of it or having it damaged by criminals even if the probability of this is small, you are still afraid it will be you next. Other nations where lesser value is placed on stuff (or they are poorer and hence have less to begin with) are consequently less prone to being concerned by such things unreasonably.
National newspapers are more prevalent (locals less and less available) in the UK than other nations and the sheer amount of national media (satellite,multichannels etc.)is greater. There is no news like bad news to sell papers or headline the TV news. All these seek something to shock people or provoke and emotional response. For example - a national newspaper would not have Supermarket to build on only town park as a headline and a local paper would not lead on Teenager 150 miles away stabbed. The first is more interest locally and the latter is what the national newspaper will lead with. The need to supply nationally emotive headlines draws narrow isolated occurrences to more peoples attention.
So people are frightened countrywide by headlines which are only really of local significance. There are countless examples - knife crime being the classic. Last year you would have thought every child in the country was in danger and that it was rampant (if you read the news papers and watched the news) and increasing yet in fact it fell and was lower than the previous year, it was just every case got reported at that time (nothing worse to make a headline out of). The fear induced probably caused more damage by giving children the impression that they were in danger and so needed to carry protection when the only effect is to increase their chance of being injured.
You can probably add, a basic lack of understanding of statistics and their relevance to this caused by bad education. It is human to fear that which you do not understand and you only have to read the blogs and BBC HYS to understand how little a sizeable proportion of our population understand.
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Mark - the real problem is that the British press is owned and run by old fashioned people who believe in the British Empire and the birch. The press endlessly campaign for longer prison sentences (maybe some of the press barons have shares in privatised prisons?). In the UK most of the press hate civil liberties and human rights. The Euro is of course hated by much of the press with endless scare stories.
Too much of the British public gets taken in by the much of the press and their nonsense. The press pretend there was a dream time of golden apples and quaint cottages. They ignore the real rural and urban poverty in the past.
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The murder/manslaughter rate is probably as good an indication of the level of violence in a society as you will get. Unlike say assault, it is defined the same the world over and killings are almost always discovered and recorded. It is difficult to massage the figures. The murder rate of England and Wales is one of the lowest in the world - below comparable societies like Germany or France and a tiny fraction of truly violent societies like Jamacia or South Africa. Furthermore it is stable or dropping. Without doubt the level of violent crime follows much the same pattern. I would trust that before I would trust the selective rants of the tadloid press who dredge up isolated stories drawn from a population of 60 million over a long period of time and try and convince us that were close to anarchy. (Angrycitizen has clearly fallen for this but most bloggers have not).
The reason for the high crime rate in Westminster and the City is because the crime rate is based on crimes per head of the resident population. A lot of people come into the area to work and play and commit crimes. However, not many people live there - hence the disparity.
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This comment was removed because the moderators found it broke the House Rules.
RE Crime from our experience the Police seem to be selective in what they accept as reported crime so therfore they can report lower levels
of crime.
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I looked at the map provided.
Most amusing: Westminster has the highest level of crime per capita, with 270.2 offences per 1,000.
Hmmm...
...anyone else find this kinda hilarious, considering that it's Westminster?
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I don't believe that only after about one year of this recession stats can predict a rise in crime. It is the usual media need to create a story. Don't forget that the people losing their livelihoods at present are conditioned through hard work to be honest. Rememember those who lost their jobs at Woolworths - can you see them mugging to make ends meet! No,they'll muddle through, as best they can, hoping for a better tomorrow.
When we have seen significant rises in crime it has been due to the demise in traditional industries where whole areas were affected for generations. The able migrated to the areas with new opportunities, those left behind suffered, due either to age or lack of imagination.
The reality is that this has happened at such an astonishing pace. One minute in August 07 your house was worth £199K the next £135K. Just like the media's need to deliver news fast, everything moves fast. An analogy might be that in the past the economy was like a steam train - it ran out of coal and water and took time to gain pressure again. Well in the modern age it just needs somebody to pay the electricity bill. It's probably simplistic and I've gone off at a bit of a tangent, but if you're going to link economics with crime today you really have to ask the question what would make hard working people resort to it? Just time.
We're always going to have crime in our society and that's down to our social model. Whether we wish to add to it depends on whether the wealthy wish to start paying higher taxes (ie be honest about their earnings), so government can take positive action in supporting those losing their jobs and homes. And never ever, ever accuse those so unfortunate to have lost their jobs of being lazy or work shy. The millions that have joined the dole recently want to work and would always do so - don't let them down.
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"But hold on. Recorded burglary from other buildings (offices, factories, shops etc) went down by 6,050 incidents - 16 fewer burglaries every day. A 2% fall. (Do let me know if you find that figure in your newspaper.)"
Erm, maybe that simply reflects the fact that in a recession there are fewer commercial properties providing such rich pickings...
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Mark,
As a former serving Detective Police Officer now involved in a business seeking to provide accurate, up-to-date information about crime levels to the UK public, we collate and analyse information gathered from the National Statistics Office, the Home Office, the dft (department for transport), and the Association of British Insurers amongst other sources.
Having studied the British Crime Survey in great detail, every year since its inception, we are often called upon by our insurer partners, to provide our analysis and opinion.
Firstly, we would like to commend The Research, Development
and Statistics Directorate, the relevant teams at the Home Office & National Statistics Office, and in particular, Alison Walker, John Flatley, Chris Kershaw and Debbie Moon, who perform the onerous task of editing the annual 200 page document.
Undoubtedly, the work involved in data collection, analysis and presentation is extremly challenging and we would commend all involved for producing the only hafl decent crime summary in the UK.
The survey introduction describes its content:-
"The Home Office publishes figures on the levels and trends of crime in England and Wales based on two sets of crime statistics, the British Crime Survey (BCS) and police recorded crime data. Each source has different strengths and weaknesses but together they provide a
more comprehensive picture of crime than could be obtained from either series alone".
The BCS and Police Recorded Crime statistics both contain flaws. Each offence needs to be examined on its own characteristics to determine the likely accuracy of the statistics produced.
The BCS is based on a survey of "incident rates" based on the questioning of a certain number of individuals, (46,000 per annum).
The overall number of incidents are ESTIMATED for England and Wales based on the incidence rate and using population estimates for the household and adult populations. In 2008/09 incidence rates for household crimes were multiplied by 23,848,680 households and, for personal crimes, by 44,265,687 adults to provide the number of incidents for each crime type. Published estimates are rounded to the nearest 10,000 incidents.
Therein lie the inaccuracies.
The BCS produces interesting data, within its constraints. It surveys a carefully selected proportionate cross section of people, from the different socio economic, gender, age, ethnic and geographical areas of the community. This is detailed in Volume 2, the explanatory notes that support the main document.
The BCS takes the responses from the selected interviewees, applying complicated formulae to calculate incident rates.
By adjusting each series, comparisons are made between police recorded crime and the BCS allowing an interpretation of overall crime trends.
The BCS is based on replies from less than 0.1% of the population
Data is ESTIMATED, based on population estimates for household and adult populations
BCS percentages and rates are based on data weighted to compensate for non response
How do crimes included in the BCS and police recorded crime differ?
The BCS provides a measure of the level of crime committed against the population resident in households in England and Wales, whereas recorded crime is a measure of those crimes reported to the police (estimated by the BCS to be only 42% comparable crime) and then recorded by them.
The BCS includes crimes that are not reported to or recorded by the
police, but is limited to crimes against adults resident in households, and also does not cover all crime types.
Differences in the profile of offences between the two sources are
influenced by the different coverage of the BCS and police recorded
crime; for example, recorded crime includes crime experienced by under
16s and commercial premises, and the BCS does not.
Some crimes are more likely to be reported and recorded than others,
overall less than half of BCS crime is reported to the police.
The methodology and categorisation of police recorded crime often produces distortion (usually downward) of the real picture. For instance, Jacqui Smith, when Home Secretary, reported that there were 18,600 offences of car theft (by stealing keys) which were contained within the domestic burglary rates and not reported in the vehicle theft statistics. This suppresses and distorts the car crime figures produced in the 2008/9 report.
An example of the distortion effect is drugs offences, which show a 95% detection rate. The nature of the offence is such that most incidents are only identified when the offender is apprehended thus producing a disproportionately high detection rate. As the non reported offences are not quantified, it is not possible to determine the real size of the problem.
A further example is that of property crime. A victim is more likely to report an incident of house burglary or car theft if intending to make a claim on an insurance policy. A crime reference number is the pre requisite for such claims being indemnified by insurers.
CONCLUDING OBSERVATIONS
For all their inaccuracies, the BCS and the police recorded crime statistics are guide to trends, albeit in need of close individual scruitiny and interpretation.
As accurate statistical reporting measures, both are flawed, but they are all that we have to work with.
The RDS map you refer to Mark, is supplemented by a further data table set. Unfortunately, the map data is drawn from a different set of figures produced at Local Authority level, adding yet more disparity between the accuracy of reported crime. Again, useful if used as only as a guide to trends though. (The current sets do not reflect matching data periods).
Both the BCS and police recorded crime reported within the survey only deal with historic data, i.e. crimes committed in this case between 6 and 12 months previously. The members of the public we speak to are unanimous in that they want the current information, what is happening right now, on their doorstep. Historic data provides a guide to trends only, not an accurate guide to the current likelihood of becoming a victim in a specific geographic area or in specific circumstances.
Out of necessity, for both our insurer partners and the public we seek to keep informed, we work with current data drawn painstakingly & individually from the 43 England & Wales police forces. This data is no more than a month old, which is better than than relying too heavily on BCS information which is estimated, distorted and out of date by the time it is published.
The data relating to car crime incidents is flawed. The existing offence per 1000 data is displayed per 1000 head of population. The number of vehicles on the road is a more accurate comparitor. There are 34million licensed vehicles vs 61million head of population, so the rate per 1000 is almsot twice the rate actually presented.
The City Of Westminster observation made us chuckle! Out of curiosity, we dug a little deeper and the recorded offence breakdown is as follows:-
VIOLENCE 13%
SEXUAL 1%
ROBBERY 3%
BURGLARY 6%
VEHICLES 6%
THEFT 53%
DAMAGE 5%
FRAUD 3%
DRUGS 9%
MISC 1%
63,260 offences recorded (similar to 07/08)
234,000 population for the area
270.19 is the offence rate per 1000 = 27.019%
27.019% x 234,000 people = 63,224 offences (effect of rounding up/down)
So, the figure of 270 crimes per 1000 seems correct.
Heaven help them if they decide to record MP expenses as reportable offences!
Depending on which set of figures are applied, the national average can be calculated on an offence per 1000 of population. This makes the numbers more geographically relevant to the reader.
The BCS Survey reports 10,687,000 offences
Police recorded crime 4,703,814 offences
UK population 61,708,895
BCS national average rate per 1000 = 173.18
Police recorded national average rate per 1000 = 76.22
Note on Population :-
From the UK National Statistics Online site, a report dated August of 2008 updated the data, and the new estimates from the Office for National Statistics indicated that the population of the UK was 60,975,000 in mid-2007.
This is an increase of 388,000 (0.6 %) from the previous year, showing a jump in the average annual rate of growth from the prior estimates. This created a population growth of nearly two million more than were counted in the last census, in mid-2001 .
Using that data to project the estimated population for mid-2009, assuming the average rate of growth since mid-2007 has also been 0.6%, then the projection would be a mid-2009 population of 61,708,895.
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Although it is lumped under acquisitive crime, some theft is definitely more deprivatorily-motivated than acquisitively-motivated (vide mobile phone theft; the fact that a stolen mobile phone is useless does not act as a deterrent, because the primary aim is not to acquire a mobile phone but to deprive someone else of a mobile phone). When money is tight, there is less to steal.
Anyway, when it comes to interpreting statistics, I apply the following rule of thumb: Anything not in SI units, and/or with commas in thousands, probably is not accurate.
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Mark makes some very fair points, but the obsession with crime figures wasn't always so strong. Until the 1960's crime wasn't even mentioned in party manifestos and policy was left to the 'experts' in the CJS despite the roughly 5 per cent increase in crime per year since the 1920s (probably driven to some extent by recording changes - though we'll never know - but read some Dickens).
A key point in the story was the tragic James Bulger murder in February 1993. If you look back at the England and Wales prison population numbers they were falling and from that month on they have never looked back. This was followed by Michael Howard with "prison works" and Tony Blair with "tough on crime, tough on the cause of crime". Policians feel they would be out of a job if they werem't waging war on crime, whatever the figures might say.
By my linking of crime to prison population trends I wouldn't want you to think I agree that there is a causal connection. There have been many countries with falling crime who have had very different penal policies (eg. the US vs Canada).
It is odd that the politicians driving harsher sentencing haven't tried to link it to crime trends. Maybe in their heart of hearts they don't believe the connection.
What we have now is a very policised debate about crime and crime figures. There isn't a proper rational consideration of what is happening on crime. Whatever the figures say in aggregate the media will tell the public the crime is going up in some area or another. No wonder the public think national crime trends are upward but are much more positive locally where they can judge by their own experience.
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As some have mentioned, it comes down to the "why bother" attitude rampant today. If you report a crime, you're lucky to see an officer. If one does turn up, it's usually three days later and any hope of a result is long gone. This is by no means a slight on the police officer....there simply aren't any.
Anyone remember the old story about the senior who, when reporting a burglar in his home was told to stay put and lock the bedroom door as they didn't have an officer available? When he responded by saying he'd shot the burglar, six cars, one helicopter and an armed response unit arrived. They were furious and after apprehending the burglar said "I thought you said you'd shot him?". The senior replied "I thought you said you didn't have anybody!"
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Dear god, what a furore. The only thing I take away from all this wasted angst and occasional shoulder-shrugging is that there is a bigger question to answer.
The newspapers over-hype the bad stuff - they need to sell papers.
The government only releases carefully crafted good stuff - they need to get re-elected.
The independent surveys seem to be out there, but are quoted almost exclusively as an antidote to those pushing a positive message.
What I see is (once again) a need to get rid of the newspapers AND the current career politicians, clear it all out - their "arms race" is largely responsible for this continual baffling array of conflicting and misleading information - and replace the whole lot with people who can start with a blank sheet.
When we actually have honesty across the board (the positive AND the negative), maybe we can stop being so bloody paranoid. But to do that, we're going to need a different breed of journalist and "politician" (incidentally, I use politician in parenthesis as I believe now that politics itself is a root cause of a lot of our problems - it has now formed its' own mythos, generating new politicians who have studied the behavioural patterns of past politicians and replicating, enhancing and extending those patterns, usually in a foul direction).
In summary: we simply don't have proper unbiased reporting on a national scale. Those telling something approaching the actual truth (I know, "define it...") - by which I mean non-partisan studies - can expect to have their data trawled by both sides of the argument to such a degree that we just end up more confused and scared.
On a personal note: where I live, I've reported odd goings-on several times (3 or 4 I think - mainly trespass) to the local police, who respond VERY quickly, check out what's going on, AND report back to me what they find out. They always seem to do something - which is impressive. I have not had one shrugged "we can't spare anyone" response.
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Where does bank thief come on your map? Or PMs were does that come? it is easy to blame others for what is wrong with this country but there is not much wrong with it its no different than it was many years ago the same rag tag PMs and over paid to the core, banks allowed to do as it please till it is a law unto itself and corrupt to the core and the police who thinks that we are its servants and they are the master, and they have the nod from the PMs to do as they please because they think they rule and the bankers know they do. there is no credit crunch its myth so the general public can be robbed and the banks still become even richer. When a Govenment fails it robs it people when is the new USA currancy coming in after all we have the Euro now we can have the Amerco. the BBC will back it to the hilt its from the USA and we all believe what comes out of that country, not.
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Thanks Denise,
My point exactly. Maybe typical crime is down but sophisticated, wholesale, white collar crime is up. What about Bernie Madoff, Sanford Pelosi, Barnie Frank, The Russian Mafia? What about that crime?
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The crime figures are definately massaged. For example, a lot of theft from and attempted theft of vehicles is recorded as vandalism. (I've had recent experience of this.) I'm fairly sure there are other tricks used to tweak the figures to suit the needs of those giving them out.
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domestic burglary is still going up though, whilst corporate burglary is not. another thing for the 'commoner' to worry about!
equating youth alcohol usage to crime is a bit frivolous. you could make a a similar equation between the lack of job opportunities out there for the young with crime, especially as the young (up to 24, i think) demographic in this country has seen the highest rise in unemployment. boredom surely breads crime? for example, i have just graduated and can not get a job anywhere. i applied for a job with a new asda store opening locally, where there was around 200 jobs available. after my group interview, i found out 2500 people had applied for these jobs. i have no chance of even getting a check out job when taking into consideration experience others may have. imagine the chances those who don't have a-levels have on the job market? there is negative mobility which is keeping people out of work. to reiterate, boredom and disillusionment are surely up there as motivation for crime??
moreover, any confrontation i've had on a Friday and Saturday night has been from those considerably older than me.
i think statistics can be used to bend the truth to create scapegoats and spin to the advantage of the holder.
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Don't you just love the Information Age? Never before have we had access to so much data with which to back up our various assertions. Trouble is, like the junk food that is also freely available today, much of it is of dubious quality, and is not much good for you. We're stuffed to bursting with rubbish data, and we suffer this mental obesity as a result. We're really no better off than we were 50 years ago, when we had no access to any data, and simply had to trust those in charge to tell us the truth. It was ignorance, sure, but was it any worse for us? We've gone from this relative darkness where we only had our own experiences to guide us, to the white light we have today. But this light does not help us to see, it simply blinds us with its intensity. The net result is, we don't know any more than we ever did, we only think that we do. What is the use of information when nobody believs a word of it?
Look at schools. Record pass rates at GCSE and all these A* grades. What are we to make of this? That pupils of my era were all hopeless dolts compared to the super-brainy children of today? Have exams have become easier? Have schools resorted to coaching children through GCSEs in order to bolster their pass rate and make themselves and the Government look better in the league tables? Who really knows?
In the same way, is crime really getting better? Given that it clearly suits those in charge to make us believe so, are we to believe that we are being deliberately lied to by the police and the statisticians to make everthing look peachy? Or are the media guilty of over-hyping crime to make us all quake in our boots?
As I said, we are as ignorant as we ever were.
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Just a few considerations:
- Instead of presenting massaged statistics, present numbers and evolutions for non-massageable things: number of murders, number of rapes, number of robberies.
- For these non-massageable elements, compare with other countries including those which have seriously harsher justice policies.
- Among people who have been victim of a crime, what percentage actually reported that crime? Is this percentage increasing or decreasing? Ask a population sample and you will know.
- Assuming crime is really declining, is it going down because we are dealing properly with criminals, or is it going down because people don't go out as much? Related to this, has the average reoffending rate decreased or increased? Are high-risk convicts kept out of society or released early?
From these unanswered considerations you can see that #51 is certainly right: we are as ignorant as we ever were.
Assuming we had the right policies: 1) we wouldn't see the kind of atrocious/gratuitous crimes that happened in the past year and 2) there would be a continuous and significant decline in the number of murders.
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Here here. Lies, damned lies ... and statistics.
I think society has given up.
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