Knife "fact sheet": The e-mail trail
A fascinating set of e-mails [283 Kb PDF] has just been published that covers roughly 24 hours around the release of that controversial knife crime "fact sheet" on the morning of 11th December last year.
You may recall how I have been covering the inadequacies of the release ever since, starting here and continuing here, here, here and here.
The electronic exchange shows how it is possible for a special advisor in Gordon Brown's office to overrule the anxieties of senior statisticians.
I am told that senior civil servants are outraged that the Public Administration Select Committee - the all-party group investigating the affair - has chosen to put the e-mails up on its website. But to me, they provide important evidence of the power wielded by special advisors at the summit of government.
The first is a note from an advisor in Number Ten called Matt Cavanagh to another special advisor at the Department of Health, Mario Dunn. In it, Mr Cavanagh quotes a line on "knife wounding figures" that, he says "the PM would like us to publish tomorrow".
So, assuming Mr Cavanagh has checked, Gordon Brown himself is apparently keen to use this very specific figure on patients admitted to hospital with stab wounds. Downing Street knows that "these figs are provisional" and promises to make that clear in the release. (They never did.) Mr Dunn sends the request on to a Department of Health official assuming that this will be fine.
However, the health official has spoken to the statisticians involved in putting together the data. There is a "deadline" of just 45 minutes to provide clearance.
Notice how the original wording is altered. Downing Street wanted to call the category of hospital admission "knife or sharp instrument woundings" - stressing how these data are about people stabbed with a blade. Mario Dunn prefers a more accurate description: "assault by a sharp object (including knives)".
Then comes the bad news for Number Ten. Just four minutes before the 2pm deadline, the statisticians at the NHS Information Centre make it clear that their view is that the provisional figures "are NOT released". They explain how "they are potentially inaccurate and may possibly give the wrong impression".
But Downing Street are, apparently, unimpressed. In an e-mail from an official at the Department of Health, copied to Alan Johnson's special advisor, we learn that while the DH "would not seek to overrule the Information Centre on this matter... Number 10 are adamant about the need to publish this statistic".
As revealed on this blog last week, the e-mail goes on to say that Downing Street "are likely to publish the data irrespective of the concerns raised".
Forty minutes later, the chief statistician at the NHS Information Centre, Andy Sutherland writes back. He is not a happy man.
The last line of his missive may well come to haunt Gordon Brown. "This will look to observers as if the govt has cherry picked the good news and forced out publication for political ends - is this really what they want?"
Mr Sutherland then informs the Office for National Statistics.
The following morning at 8.35 - a few hours before the official release of the "fact sheet", but after some journalists have been sent it - Mike Hughes from the ONS reveals that the National Statistician, Karen Dunnell has been on the phone...
At just after 11am, Mr Hughes writes to an (unnamed) official at Number Ten making it clear that, as revealed here last week, the figures had been prepared on the understanding that "the figures aren't final and aren't for publication".
![OCR reads: From : Mike,Hu~ihes(äons . Sent: 11 December2008 11 :03 To Number 10 official Cc: Karen.Durinellons Subject: Knife wounding figures As discussed . I understand that the information Centre currently provide this information to No 10 for management purposes, with provisos that the figures arent final and arent for publication . The Code of Practice doesnt specify the handling of statistics derived from administrative data per se but the relevant principles of the Code are that ; • the Head of Profession will decide the publication date for the derived statistics • the publication date will be pre-announced. Happy to discuss further. I'm best contacted on my mobile Mike Mike Hughes Director National Statistics and Policy Group Office for National Statistics From: Number 10 official Sent: 11/12/2008 11 :22 To: Mike.Huhesojis Cc: Karen, Dunneflons ihevwoodno 10 . Subject: RE: Knife wounding figures EUNCLASSIFIEDI [Non-Record] Thanks Mike, I am most grateful to you for bringing this to my attention and am pursuing urgently at this end . Regards](http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/markeaston/emailtrail_pdf08.gif)
The official says he is "pursuing urgently".
I'm 
© MMIX~RS~q~RS~~RS~z~RS~27~RS~)
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Arrogant and unacceptable.
NuLab ministers ignoring expert advice:
- Jacqui Smith
- Gordon Brown
- Jack Straw
Any more?
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This seems to be good old fashioned bbc reporting. Congratulations.
Yes, I heard the audible gasp when you presented this on five live to Peter and Anita
After seeing your initial blog and then nothing...I had just assumed that the BBC didn't want to cover it. Hopefully it now hits the main stream
It is a greater shame that someone hasn't followed up with this by getting statements from the people concerned to hold them to account.
Who is the "Downing Street"?
Whilst this should probably be a "case to answer" has it yet gone to the select committee for the Home Office?
Who does this reflect upon the worst? Brown? Campbell? Smith? A N Other?
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I love you Mark
Seriously, how stupid are these government types that they think they can get away with anything and manipulate the press and the public?
There is being slippery and there is being blatantly misleading - it's atrocious government
Hopefully this will start us down the path of a truly independent stats body
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Very good story and research, but let's not get on our high horses and put all the blame on NuLabour. If the next mob get voted in and sack all the special advisors etc, I'll be delighted, but I'm not going to hold my breath. Politicians, media and spin are now so firmly welded together I can't see anything being different
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Just one example of the machinery of this Labour Government spinning out of control.
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Respect is due, Mark - this appears to be a smoking gun. Please don't let the story be silenced either by the BBC or the government, the public deserve the truth!
My psychic powers forsee the following, if this issue snowballs:
"Lessons will be learned..."
"A full investigation..."
"Open and honest government..."
"Real help for those affected..."
"Extra investment in the police..."
"Global problem"
"The Tories would do nothing"
OK, the last two might be a stretch in this instance but I think they're all so used to saying them by now there's a chance someone might say it out of habit!
Keep up the good work Mark, and never ever let yourself be fooled by a graph, a spreadsheet, a percentage, or any press release coming from Downing Street.
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6 - you missed one
"hard-working families"
Not sure that it is relevant, but that never stopped anyone.
Excellent work by the way, Mark.
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Not sure you did enough to redact those email addresses.
I know what the end bit would be.
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Any email connections with The Consulting Association in Droitwich and Downing Office as it has been going on for 15 years..........15 years Phew! thats a long time to keep denying they were doing anything wrong, so who else were they suppling info to and why.
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@6 you forgot
"whiter than white"
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Great work on this Mark they must be getting close to the edge of that hole your digging.
What gets me is they think a figure is more important than a life!!!.
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Give them all green custard and vote in a new government - preferably not Labour, Conservative or LibDems
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Fascinating, just shows how little one can trust this government to ever issue the truth. Thank you for exposing this. I wish you would also investigate the sale of gold by GB and find out what his advisers actually told him. I suspect he ignored their advice too.
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Great reporting. Keep it up.
It would be nice if these overpaid "special" advisors gave some advice on solving problems, rather than simply repackaging the problem in a more favourable light.
These unelected unaccountable bureaucrats should be held to account .... and so should the ministers who control them.
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Nice one Mark, this is the type of stuff we want, holding them to account.
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This will not faze the politicians we have, producing figs. that fit the agenda is the norm.
The truth is an alien concept to them.
Good to see you get factual proof on this one Mark.
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Good heavens a BBC website that has taken to telling the unspun, unvarnished truth !
Whatever next?
Well, Mr Easton you have just gained a fan!
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Chances are that this is not the only example, just the first one we have heard of. Any more abuses of statistics rumoured?
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Another First Class piece of investigative journalism and also credit to the people who have had so much of this putrid government that they feel morally obliged to blow the whistle. Here's hoping more follow suit.
Keep up the good work
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Superb follow up article Mark, you have managed to convince me that at least one BBC reporter is not prepared to regurgitate government spin without first checking the facts.
Your obvious journalistic integrity should be the benchmark that all BBC reporters strive for.
Lets hope that Robinson, Preston and Crick start behaving in the same impartial manner, somehow I doubt it.
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I've been in the same position at the Department of Health again and again - No10 or the SpAds want something and you have an hour (or less) to sort it out. The thing is, if you do become, as Andy puts it, 'awkward' it's a big blot on your professional copybook.
It wasn't quite so bad when we had good SpAds both within Departments and at No10. Sadly these days, well informed ones are the exception.
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I can't think of a better description of politics...
""This will look to observers as if the govt has cherry picked the good news and forced out publication for political ends - is this really what they want?""
The media, the gov and people within certain positions of power all play this game...
If you re-read Marks articles, you will see that there is a lot of stirring going on even from his points of view.
1Firstly, the new numbers are not official crime statistics. They will not be published by the Office for National Statistics
2 Regular readers will know of my scepticism that we ever suffered an "epidemic" of knife crime this year,
3 capital. In the year to June 2008 there were 9,997 - a fall of 14%. Serious violence and assault with less serious injury was down 5.2% and youth violence generally was down 7.7%.
SO do you not agree that the information provided by the government may of been correct ???
Fair enough Mark your taking this one head on to get the answers, but surely your missing many points. Statistics are all bull anyway. The stats of happy kids, better schools, chances of success in life, who's got more friends is more successful. All of this is none sense and doesn't mean anything to anyone. Stats are never a debate winner.
Personally on this particular debate I don't think the government was wrong. All of a sudden everyone cares about the kids killing each other. No one cared 2 - 3 years ago. It's just a bout of conscience to get people going on. It was originally made such a fuss by the news papers.
At the end of the day the gov are not brilliant, but why don't you actually attack them for something they actually got wrong, rather than correct. IRAQ maybe, The infrastructure maybe. All the bogus stats about where is best to take the recession. People say the south east is best, I spend a lot of time their and IMO it's one of the worst effected areas. Never trust the gov and never trust the media. They are all on some opposite agendas to each other. By all means read them but read them all and make up your own mind.
I honestly can't see the fascination with this statistic thing when our human rights (section 76. and check http://www.channelm.co.uk/video_4x3.html?bcpid=1213934526&bctid=5172505001
) are slowly disappearing. So many articles on a moral standpoint of politics, in a political world that makes tough and immoral decisions everyday. We get the picture, please move on.
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Good work.
And they wonder why we throw custard at them.
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Thank you Mark.
Great journalism. Keep up the good work.
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Another disgraceful misuse and abuse of statistics by a political party determined to cling on to power no matter what.
And for once, a BBC editor acting for the interests of the People.
Well done, Mark, perhaps your colleagues would like to take note.
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I would have thought that publishing statistics against the advice of those who are responsible for their preparation and therefore potentially misleading without appropriate provisos being attached, would, in any normal business context, be considered to be, at best, misleading and possibly fraudulent.
This is the sort of behaviour to be expected from a third world dictatorship and not from U.K.gov.
Has anyone been disciplined for this?
If-why not ?
If "No.10" think that their political fortune is more important than honesty and transparent government perhaps they should resign now rather that keep clutching at straws in the wind.
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We need a new, written constitution that specifically ordains our public institutions to gather, guard and publish public information in the public's interests, not government.
Government should have no privileged access to information (except possibly on national security grounds) and certainly should not be able to selectively manipulate, select out of context and pre-release information.
Our systems are arranged on the assumption that Government serves the people and therefore can be trusted. Since when Government chooses to serve itself with little or no care for the interests of the people there is no defence, we need a new system from first principles.
Since Labour are obviously morally and ethically bankrupt, will either of the other two main parties put the fixing of our broken political and democratic system at the top of the agenda?
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first class journalism! this is the type of investigation that can force ministers and governments to resign. we have an unelected prime minister of an unpopular government, that has a cabinet composed of scots; dishonest ministers; expenses-fiddlers; some ministers so incompetent that they are the laughing stock across this country and the world (pornography on expenses accounts and still in power; still expected to be taken seriously??!); peter mandelson??; an economy in ruins; blair still lurking in europe; brown's new love affair with obama (and brown's false and forced smile . . .yuk, it scares me rather than making me smile back); local elections in june approaching where we suddenly see the government starting to, slowly, change some things to appease the voters; immigration policy and asylum laws are also seen as laughable by just about everyone - including the immigrants!! keep up the excellent work, mark
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