Knife stats row: The plot thickens
"As far as we are concerned, the issue (of the knife crime stats) is dead and buried."
An unfortunate phrase, perhaps, from a source in the home secretary's office, but the whole affair (which I have written about here, here, here and here) has not gone away as far as I am concerned.
Indeed, intriguing new detail exposes some questionable activity at the heart of government.
Jacqui Smith doesn't want another row with the head of the statistics watchdog, Sir Michael Scholar, I am told. But she does want to make it clear that "the stat that went out before Christmas was not incorrect".
But how can she be so sure?
The figure she is talking about appeared in a controversial "fact sheet" [pdf link] and claimed a 27% fall in numbers admitted to hospital with stab wounds in nine high crime areas the Home Office had targeted.
NHS officials said the statistic, published on 11 December last year, "had not been through the regular process of checking and quality assurance."
Sir Michael went further in a letter to the top civil servant at No 10, describing how statisticians had "tried unsuccessfully to prevent their premature, irregular and selective release."
"I hope you will agree that the publication of prematurely released and unchecked statistics is corrosive of public trust in official statistics, and incompatible with the high standards which we are all seeking to establish", he continued.
The Home Office however, don't think they've done anything particularly wrong.
"We didn't go to Downing Street and say we were going to use the figure without being sure," an official close to the home secretary tells me.
"It might not have gone through all the hurdles Michael Scholar might have wanted. Michael saying it is not checked does not mean it is not true."
Well, how does that square with an e-mail of which I now have details?
It was sent by a senior NHS statistician to the Department of Health and forwarded to No 10's policy unit at precisely 13:56 GMT on 10 December (the day before the release) by the expert collating the hospital admissions data.
In it she explained that the figures must not be published because they were "provisional data".
"They are potentially inaccurate and may give the wrong impression," she states.
The reason, I understand, is that hospitals only submit data once a patient has been discharged.
So releasing the figures early meant they wouldn't include all those stab victims still on a ward and might paint a rosier picture than the official statistical release (due to be published next month).
Two hours after the warning from the statistician, a reply came back from a civil servant at the Department of Health:
"I have passed on your concerns to all concerned," it reads. "I have been informed that No 10 are adamant about the need to publish these statistics.
"As a result, I am informed that they are likely to publish the data irrespective of the concerns raised."
What makes No 10's position problematic is that the NHS Information Centre only agreed to put together the bespoke figures on the strict understanding that they would not be published.
There is an official and long-standing code which states that ministers may ask statisticians for pre-published raw data, but only for internal "management purposes".
My understanding is that officials knew the basis on which the stab wound numbers were being collected. Someone, it appears, went back on their word.
I am also now in possession of statistics prepared for the "fact sheet" which were sent to the Home Office but not used.
You can download the full document by clicking here [excel file].
These show that stabbings were falling in the high knife-crime areas before the government launched its action plan - down 11%.
Good news and likely to bolster public confidence one would imagine.
But the home secretary's staff chose not to include it in their release.
Instead, they focused on later and more unreliable data to claim that the apparent fall in stab wound cases coincided with their "Tackling Knives Action Programme".
The whole point of the release was to claim cause and effect - government action works. The earlier statistics undermine that assertion.
Jacqui Smith argues her staff's motivation in putting out the stats was to increase public confidence.
But there will be some who conclude that the omission of the previous statistics shows this to be so much humbug.
The bigger picture is becoming clear. There was no knife crime epidemic. Official (verified and checked) figures published on Wednesday showed that while the politicians were opining about soaring numbers of knife attacks,
English A&E departments were seeing a fall in the number of people brought in with stab wounds.
The NHS Information Centre release says:
"Assault by sharp objects (including knives) resulted in 5,239 admissions in 2007-08", their statement reveals, "an 8.4% drop from 2006-07 (5,720)."
So, 481 fewer people were admitted with stab wounds in 07-08 and the average age of the victim was unchanged at 29.
The number of very young people wounded (0-14) has remained flat: 95 in 06-07 and 93 in 07-08. The suggestion that the age of victims was falling is also contradicted by the data.
I called the home secretary's office and asked for an answer to the question: "Why didn't you point out in your fact sheet that 'assault by sharp object' admissions were already falling before the government's action plan?"
I have informed Downing Street of this article and asked them for their response.
In both cases, I'll let you know what they say.
I'm 
© MMIX~RS~q~RS~~RS~z~RS~28~RS~)
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Mark it seems to me that finally you're beginning to see the inherent problems with concluding anything from statistics at all - especially statistics released by this government.
Take this for an example, concerning "violent crime" statistics:
http://inspectorgadget.wordpress.com/2008/07/03/violent-crime-alert-inspector-who/
"Officers are being asked to start arresting “violent crime” offenders for the offence ABOVE that which they believe has been committed. This means that if we think we are faced with an Actual Bodily Harm offence, we arrest for Grievous Bodily Harm.
The Charge can always be dropped to ABH later. It’s the arrest statistic which matters.
Why have we been asked to do this?
Because 2008/09 will be a “baseline year” for violent crime statistics. If we can show an over large number of serious violent crimes in 2008/09, then we can be successful in reducing serious violent crimes in 2010/11 when we go back to arresting for the correct offence in the first place."
These kinds of number games are going on openly and regularly in all public sector areas, all in the somewhat religious obsession with chasing Home Office targets, because that's how promotions are handed out, and how budgets are allocated, and it's also where the blame finger gets pointed at the sharper end of matters (pun not intended)
Your blog still assumes that anyone still has any faith at all in anything statistical that they read any more, because more often than not, the statistics contradict what their common sense and real-world observations tell them.
Governments and senior management departments in public sectors (reporting to the Home Office) all know how to play the numbers game, and the reasoning is simple - its the impression that matters now, not the actual job itself. Jacqui Smith and her cronies couldn't care less if crime is falling or not, or if ordinary people are more or less likely to be stabbed when they go to the shops. She doesn't care because she has her bodyguards and her main residence and other houses and her gold plated pension and knighthood to look forward to. And providing she can prove statistically that crime is falling, regardless of the reality, she knows that that's how history will record her contribution. And I'm sorry, but that's just wrong.
More to the point, the tax revenue and man-hours that go into the production of these statistics and their reports could be far better spent by actually dealing with the real problems of society, and possibly even make a difference where it's needed. Results like that would tell their own story far better than graphs and spreadsheets ever could.
Regardless, I admire your stance and your willingness to at least challenge this shameful government on their record. It makes a welcome change as ever to see BBC reporters actively doing journalism instead of recycling government press releases like certain other BBC bloggers who shall remain nameless. Keep up the good work :)
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Why did they bother doing this anyway?
Even if the fiddle hadnt been uncovered no one would have believed the statistics anyway, there have been too many instances of thsi government rigging figures and geenrally being dishonest for them ever to be taken at face value
This is a good example of how Nu Labour is hopelessly addicted to lying and spin since they lie even where as in this instance they would in all probability be found out and where a reasonably intelligent person would know they were better off saying nothing or just telling the truth
Result whilst no one would have beleived or given them any credit for the knife crime stats whatsoever they will however remember that they were rigged and thus Nu Labour are even more distrusted than before
The other implication is that Nu Labour obviously think the public are stupid since it never seems to occur to them that what is obvious falsehood to them may possibly be realised to be false by the population at large
Shows how out of touch they are not merely politically but on a basic human level with their subjects
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Lies and more lies.
Jacqui Smith is simply not to be trusted.
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I commend you upon your research, a shame it is published so deep down here
Any chance we can get this stuff onto the Daily Politics
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Go for it Mark dig a big hole someones bound to fall into it :)
Everything this government is doing is in its own interests not in the common peon's that it serves. We move from one false headline to another with stataticians looking for things that improve by themselves and then find a pet project to sugar coat the figures with.
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The problem we've got, just as it has always been, is the constant tug-of-war going on between the government always playing down figures on one side and the sensationalist elements of the press always exaggerating on the other.
5,000 stabbings a year amongst a population of 60 million actually isn't that bad at all. As a ratio that's less than 1 in 10,000 people! Hardly the danger-zone some newspapers like to imply Britain is (and have many living in life-long fear, convinced they're right).
However the government, prefer to go for the simply outrageous figure. Both sides are failing in their duties of being open and transparent - both the government and the media.
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Great piece of persistent investigative journalism. Lets hope this makes headline news and it not buried somewhere. That said - its getting harder and harder to keep Government lies out of the headlines - there are so many to choose from and they are all being exposed like a dripping tap. Rendition - pensions - "boom and bust" - housing allowances and now this......
Total contempt for the public. Jacqui Smith surely HAS to go. But then - with the exception of the late Robin Smith and Clare Short who at the very least had principles - when was the last time any Labour minister resigned.
Oh yes - Peter Hain went to clear his name and failed. Peter Mendleson - twice, only to be given a Lordship!! David Blunkett - only when backed into a corner.
Incompetent, all of their policies being gradually being exposed as failures from education to health, and utter contempt for the public.
Call an election now!
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"But she does want to make it clear that "the stat that went out before Christmas was not incorrect"." [they were]
foul woman, she's starting to remind of a caricature of a nasty little woman in a book who infuriates you by not listening
what a great politician
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So the main question I want to ask is why this information isn't front and centre at the top of the BBC News Website with a headline, "Home Office and No 10 lie over knife crime to manipulate public opinion."
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Surely any politician of conscience must read this report and resign.
You tried to deceive the public in the most shameful way, you persisted in doing it despite being told it was wrong, and when challenged you defended your actions.
Ms Smith your position is untenable.
Resign !
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Great work Mark, thanks for your research and keeping us informed!
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Great work.
Its good to see someone keeping an eye on what is really going on.
Lies, damned lies and statistics!
Covering their backas as usual, no wonder people don not trust politicians
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Mark:
Thanks for the excellent research into this sensitive information....
(**//**)
Also, Thanks for the keeping updated with respects to what Downing Street response on this story is!
~Dennis Junior~
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Hats off to essexbetty. That word trust again. If your friend or neighbour bowled you a curved ball such as this you would very quickly lose trust in them and shut them out of your life.
Smith isn't to be trusted. Nor is Alan Johnson with all this PR nonsense about the NHS Charter when he categorically knows that the British State lives with a deeply flawed eye testing system that causes unnecessary suffering for so many, many British citizens, and the youngest most vulnerable members of society who get written off as uneducatable when this is just not the case. Just a blatant disregard for the European Charter of Human Rights which the government has signed up for. I can't tell you what a scandal this is. Kids getting put on medication for meaningless constructs such as ADHD before first being checked out for a correctable underlying organic problem. I wonder how many of these poor souls take out their frustrations on society by wielding the knife?
I have been a PR professional pretty much all my adult life and it never, ever, ceases to amaze me that politicians just do not get how very, very bad they are at this game. Alistair Campbell was the most terrible amateur and left his boss with a permanently tarnished PR profile, irrespective of the Iraq debacle, after years of nothing but economic boom when it opposite should have been the case if he had been doing his job with proper respect for Blair's key target audience ie us. . And all because these arrogant idiots consistently under-estimate the electorate that they purport to represent; fail to understand the role of trust in society and fail to realise that spin and effective long term PR are entirely different beasts. Just like Crosby, Goodwin et all didn't have a banking qualification between them neither did the likes of Alistair Darling ever log a day's experience of working as a professional PR consultant before taking on that role for Blair. And my goodness did it show, as it does with whoever is advising the hapless Jaqui Smith. It's just pathetic and well done Mark for showing us these joins.
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Excellent work Mark.
I don't agree with previous posters that all government stats are inherently untrustworthy. If the Statistics Authority rules are adhered to, the public ought to be able to trust the figures. However, the Home Office has a long track record of disregarding the rules on the presentation and release of statistics, particularly around crime figures.
Two common tricks which I came across during my time working in parliament: (i) delay all 'bad' statistics and release them en masse on designated 'take out the trash' days, denying journalists the time they need to digest the figures and find the bad news stories buried within; (ii) release 'bad' statistics alongside a barrage of policy announcements on the issue concerned, so there is no opportunity for opponents to accuse them of not doing enough to tackle the problem.
Both tricks went against the letter of the Statistics Commission code of practice, which stated that stats should be released at regular, pre-determined times, and released independently of new policy initiatives.
What you are digging up here is worse still - the collation and publication of statistics which are not even approved by in-house statisticians. It has certainly happened before (I recall that a similar shadow information system was set up by the Anti-Social Behaviour unit), but this may be the worst documented case to date.
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Scandalous. to quote you:
"I have passed on your concerns to all concerned," it reads. "I have been informed that No 10 are adamant about the need to publish these statistics.
"As a result, I am informed that they are likely to publish the data irrespective of the concerns raised."
What makes No 10's position problematic is .............. figures on the strict understanding that they would not be published.
Reminds everyone that this is so similar to the '45 minutes' Iraq War issue.
A man died then. An honest man who was a 'whistleblower'.
Either someone in Downing Street needs to walk the plank or someone in the Home Office.
I get the feeling that 'honesty' doesn't play much of a part in politics today.
No 10 Downing street is acting on its own initiatives, as it did in the case of Dr David Kelly and the 45 Minute warning.
i.e. the unelected players are failing to respect the Rules of Government and inevitably, by extension, the Laws of the Land.
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Mark,
It's wonderful to read this level of analysis. I really take my hat off to whoever it was who decided to gve you the slot on the website.
Any chance that you can lead seminars for your colleagues, so that they can at least understand what they are talking about when they discuss statistics? It would be even better if they had the knowledge to question politicians on the statistical methodology.
It would be too much, I know, to ask for the BBC to provide programming where they taught the general population the basics about statistics.
Keep up the good work.
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good work Mark..at least someone at the BBC is trying to hold this corrupt government to account......
The BBC has become the communication wing of the Labour Party, broadcasting, without question, the spin, the lies and the half truths..
This saga of the knife statistics should be front page news, not consigned to a moderated blog...
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This news barely even registers with me. I am that used to this governments lies, spin, counter spin, half truths, cover ups and denials. Apathy has set in with me, and that in a supposedley democratic country, is truly sad
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Just another comment of thanks for the good work you're doing.
Why is it that other blogs like Robert Peston's and Nick Robinsons get listed on the front page of the website but for this one which is far more informative, educational and entertaining (isn't that the BBC charter?) is hidden away and the only way I can easily get to it is from my saved favorites?
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Massaging statistics in order to make a department look more effective than it is has been the hallmark of this government since the earliest days. However, willful use of selective and unproven statistics which may be misleading is a new low - even for an organisation as manipulative as the Home Office - and all under the watch of a woman whose individual financial arrangements are in need of scrutiny.
In the light of the experiences of Charles Clarke and other previous incumbents, one begins to wonder whether the only reason Smith still has a job is because nobody else wants the poisoned chalice.
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eBay UK has announced that it will bring in a blanket ban on the sale on all knives, or anything even remotely knife-like, including cooking and craft knives, pointy jewelery and theatrical props.
They usually get tipped the wink to do this just before new legislation is announced, so expect the Home Office to tack yet another Statutory Instrument on the end of the Violent Crime Reduction Act to ban all distance selling of knives.
Of course, most real knife crime - as opposed to idiots posting clips of themselves posing with £20 "ninja swords" on YouTube - is committed with kitchen knives bought in the local Tesco, but never let it be said that nuLabour lets facts get in the way of grabbing another news cycle.
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"Why didn't you point out in your fact sheet that 'assault by sharp object' admissions were already falling before the government's action plan?"
Why not just ask...
"Why did you knowingly and verifiably mislead the public?"
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how can we not trust the minister, who spurns the frills of suburban life to live punitively in a room in her sisters house to serve us, with only two paid bodyguards at 200,000 a year over and above what they would cost at the grace and favour house already standing empty for her. such absitence, indeed spartanity, can only point to complete trustworthyness. the fact that these figures were ONLY EVER ISSUED TO GOVERNMENT ON THE STRICT UNDERSTANDING THEY WERE NEVER PUBLISHED, is clearly not her fault, as she simply refuses to waste public money on phone or internet contact with the real world, and her only contact with data comes through New Labour sources, once removed, which by their very nature are bound to be inaccurate, not working, under review, the subject of an inquiry, or inaccessible due to the invoking of the parliament act. the poor soul has no chance of ever seeing the world as we do, given such privation and restricted distorted and often, in the case of John Presott at least, incomprehensible data. we should take pity on her, and club together for an upmarket cardboard box situated right outside parliament, so she could at least access semaphore, up to the minute data in much more comfort.
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You don't need the statisticians to tell you that knife crime is here to stay.
Knife crime took off after film censorship was abolished and games peddling gratuitous violence became standard fodder for so many youngsters.
If you can't thinking of a painful way to deal with someone, detailed video advice is but a click away.
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Is this not the so-called Hegelian Principle?
Step one: CREATE A "PROBLEM": Create it or take one that does exist and build it up out of all proportion to its real importance;
Step Two: PUBLICIZE THE "PROBLEM": Make sure a story about this problem appears in the news media each and every day, in newspapers, news magazines, radio, and television so soon people are clamoring for a "solution" to the problem;
Step Three: OFFER A "SOLUTION": A solution often that takes away one or more of our rights and further undermines the constitutional protections we all are supposed to enjoy. One that involves higher taxes (to pay for this "solution," of course).
In this case, Labour have added a forth step. Claim success where none exists and wait for the media to get bored and move on to a new topic so that the public feel that the 'problem' (which is in reality neither more nor less real than it was before) has been 'solved'.
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I totally agree with Harworkinghobbes. This is by far the best and most considered blog on the BBC site. Well done Mark and keep the stories coming.
I also agree that it is truly awful when apathy sets in because you no longer feel that you are living in a democracy. But as the saying goes 'All things must pass, all things must pass away'.
And look on the bright side. The longer this goes on the longer the Labour Party will be out of power to consider how utterly corrupt they became in power. Blair and Brown may well chase after the good opinion of the Pope because it is the only way that those two are going to keep their conscience at bay when power is gone and the power to influence has waned to zero. They are both pathetic husks of human beings and deserve no better than eternal damnation for cheer leading this country into an illegal war, breaking its financial system and utterly debasing our political system. The likes of Prescott, Smith and Darling are just cretinous spear carriers by comparison and if I had to chose one to swing for it, it would be Brown rather than Blair. He really is beyond contempt and was never elected by anyone other than himself and those who were swayed by his over-weening sense of entitlement. A third rate human being. His exit from the stage can't come soon enough for me.
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newsjock: You talk about knife crime as if it almost never occured before the advent of video games and TV violence (i.e. the last couple of decades). You only need to look at some of the statistics linked off the NHS stats provided to see stabbings have been recorded at not massively dissimilar levels ever since the NHS started.
I don't wish to get into politics, but I can't stand the absurd rosey-tinted glasses view of people saying "crime never existed before [Blair/Thatcher/take your pick]" type statements.
Keeping everything in rational perspective may be far more boring than kneejerk sensationalist statements, but it is a necessary part of the proper analysis of any problem.
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It seems to me Mark that every department of this present Government, is obsessed not merely with concealing their incompetence to address major issues, but also with with presenting their shortcomings as achievements.
The magazine 'Addiction Today', has an interesting article which establishes that The National Treatment Agency's(NTA) claim that 'Drug related deaths have been reducing in recent years' is misleading. The NTA have now acknowledged that their claim is based on figures which do not include deaths related to drug poisoning.
No, that is not a typo, nor have you read it wrong, the selected figures on which the NTA base their claim do not include deaths related to drug poisoning.
Their comments this can be seen on
www.addictiontoday.org/addictiontoday/2009/02/gps-nta-drug-deaths-numbers-game.html
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The problem is Jacqui Smith and indeed the whole of Labour want to be seen to look as if they have won on this matter, even though the reality is that they have failed across the board as a political party.
They are without doubt the biggest pile of shambles ever in the history of Parliament - they would not last a day where I work, the whole lot of them would be fired!
I hope to God 2009 is the last we see of the Labour common purpose.
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I have absolute faith in statistics. They will almost always conclusively prove the point that they're being used to prove. And if they don't, you can always find some that will...
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Great work Mark - good old-fashioned investigative journalism, as opposed to the "how do you feel" vox-pop we get doled out normally on the "news" and current affairs programs.
The saddest part of this is that every time the media and government get together to wage war on another perceived problem in society it is always we, the general public, that loose more civil liberties or personal freedoms as a result. The furor around knife crime has led to the highly dubious situation where ordinary members of the public are being arrested for carrying perfectly harmless tools, like locking pen-knives, and we are now told we must submit to searches at many train stations to check we aren't criminals! Whatever happened to the presumption of innocence and the right to privacy?
Recently WatchDog managed to create another bandwagon against knives and have bullied eBay into banning knife sales, regardless of any evidence that this will reduce knife crime. Also, HMRC appear to be applying the most bizarre interpretations of the law these days to seize personal imports of pen-knives from abroad - presumably so that they can report back that they are 'standing shoulder to shoulder with government' in the fight against knife crime.
The government's actions to combat knife crime have done nothing to actually tackle the reasons why some morons use knives as weapons. But they have restricted personal freedoms to own and purchase collectables and useful, safe tools.
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Congratulations on a brilliant piece of investigative journalism and sticking with it through the smoke and mirrors, lies and spin of this government.
As a late middle aged native of this country, I and many like me are heartily sick of being treated as criminals and of trying to live in country that is more repressive by the day. Where suspicion and intrusion into our daily lives, along with massive diminution in personal freedoms has resulted in decent law abiding people being unable to carry tools that make their working and leisure time easier and more satisfying, while those who seek to pursue criminal activity snigger at us and the law as they continue to carry cheap kitchen knives and firearms.
Personal freedoms aside, that Ms Smith et al use the deaths of those unfortunates who have been murdered to further their need to have us living in fear by lying to us, is nothing short of obscene.
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The statistical misrepresentation is typical of the NuLabour communists. They will say anything to camouflage their intention: the destruction of Family, Nation, and Religion. They want to destroy these three because they each provide a source of nurture and a sense of belonging. This enables the communists to substitute their own version of 'good citizen' without fear of contradiction. Look at any NuLabour 'policy'. All have this same common purpose thread running through them.
The British public is sadly quite naieve when it comes to propaganda.
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